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NZDUSD: Measuring the Pullback for a Structure based ShortWe placed NZDUSD on our radar during yesterday's Live Room session and have been tracking it ever since. I apologize in advance, but the analysis that I did on this pair is somewhat advanced so I'm not going to attempt to duplicate what I shared with you in last night's Syndicate video. Honestly speaking it's a lot clearer on the 13 period range bar charts (as you can see in the link attached at the bottom). Following the I.P.D.E. process that I shared with you guys on Monday, I've come to the conclusion that until shown otherwise, i want to get short Kiwi. The difficult part was determining where. Initially I had 3 killzones (with in the larger potential reversal zone) that sparked my interest but as this pair ebbs and flows, i'm starting to get a clearer idea of which zone is the one I want to keep my eye on and execute the trade if given the opportunity. To determine my killzones I've used a combination of Fibonacci retracements, extensions, inversions and harmonic moves. I say given the opportunity because, having price action enter the zone or level isn't enough. I still need to find a reason for entry and I won't know if or when that will happen until we get there. For now all I can do is wait, watch and be ready to pull the trigger if it does. Good luck in the markets today traders! tradeempowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
28
BTCUSD: Reading The Wicks for a long entryIn yesterday's interview/webinar I got asked the question about my outlook on Bitcoin. At the time I responded by saying that all I see is consolidation and didn't have a real prediction to make. (Here's a link to the recorded webinar if you missed it www.youtube.com) As I look at the chart today, although we're still consolidating, the candlesticks are telling me a heck of a story by the length of their wicks to the downside. Buying pressure is what I see at this level over the past few hours, so if I were a trader of this pair I would BUY! No it's not a high probability trade. For those of you who were in the Combined Technical Score training yesterday we probably only have a CTS score of 1. But as a pure structure based trade it offers a good risk reward in my opinion. I wouldn't expect any crazy breakout of anything like that, but a move back across is certainly possible.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
GER30: Low Risk Short Into Previous Structure SupportI wanted to hold this for my webinar with Tradingview today, but it looks like we're already starting to move so I'll give it a share as well. By the way if you haven't registered here's the link blog.tradingview.com Live Room members, if you remember last week we talked a lot about waiting for opportunities where the risk reward is heavily in our favor, especially if we want to take an aggressive approach. Well on Friday we came right into previous structure support which should now act as resistance on the Ger30. Conservative traders I would key in on this level and wait for a double top for a more conservative approach. No tricks to this trade just LOOK LEFT as structure will leave clues. Although we're in a heavy bullish trend on the HTFs, we have seen some relief as of late. I'm not sure how long this relief will last but for the bears there is a lot of continued opportunity to the downside.
FX:GER30Short
by Akil_Stokes
39
AUDCAD: Bearish Cypher. I think it's a LOSER...But I'm InWe've had a hell of a ride as of late on the AUDCAD. Through some difficult pattern trading weeks this pair has been the one keeping my head above water. We now have yet another Cypher pattern that just completed minutes ago. In all honestly, I'm fully expecting a loser on this one. Why? Well it's just the numbers. Even with the Cypher having a completion rate up to 75-80% 5 in a row without a loss seems a little unlikely. Will this stop me from taking the trade? Heck no! It's a "GOOD" trade and that's all i look for in the market. If you need another example of this check out the piece i just wrote on yesterday's USDCAD trade that I didn't want to take "the Best Type of Trade" tradeempowered.com Either way, stops need to be above the X leg, i'd say at minimum 0.9685s and initial targets (assuming we turn around on a dime) would be down in the 9545s area. Good luck with this one traders and remember we trade the plan not our emotions!
Short
by Akil_Stokes
43
USDJPY: 2 Ways to trade this Bullish FlagFlag patterns are one of the many simple patterns that I used to trade before I was a consistently profitable trader. Like many of the strategies that I used back then, I assumed that flags didn't work because i couldn't make profit off of them. After realizing that it was ME and not MY STRATEGY that had the problem, I find myself implementing a lot of what I used back in the day with a brand new perspective since I'm not a lot more knowledgeable about structure and price action. This chart features a bullish flag pattern on the USDJPY 240 chart. It can also be seen pretty clear on the 1 hour. They key to this particular pattern is the fact that it has formed by putting in an HHHL which signal of bullish continuation. So price action showing me bullish continuation + Bullish Flag pattern = Look for a chance to get long. There are a few ways to handle this trade and I've picke dout 2 to share with you. 1) Wait for a retest of the simple pattern lows and look to play the breakout. Or 2) wait for the breakout and retest. We've got resistance ahead aligned with fibonacci confluence to use as out target zone, with stops being below out flag pattern support level. Akil Akil@Tradeempowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
35
Bitcoin: 3 Bearish Opportunities approachingI got asked the other day about Bitcoin and what I thought about recent price action. When looking at the timeframe all that comes to mind is consolidation and bearish. As we've seen on the AUDCAD over the past few weeks (as it's nailed 4 straight cyphers) consolidation breeds patterns. I see 2 potential patterns here on BTCUSD the first being a bearish bat (yellow) and the second being a bearish cypher (red) Stops for the bat pattern will be well before the cypher completion so there's no need to worry about choosing one over the other. Before both of those potential patterns we also have a CTS based trading opportunity at the bat pattern "B" leg. At that level I'm seeing a potential ABCD completion, the RSI is already overbought, there's structure looking left and we have some fibonacci confluence. So not a bad opportunity. Waiting for a conservative reason for entry would make it an even better opportunity for you lower timeframe traders. If you're interested in watching me trade live I've opened up access to my live trading room for today. 8am-11am New York Time. Just shoot me an email before 7:45am NY time and I'll get you the login information Akil Akil@Tradeempowered.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Akil_Stokes
2
DXY: A LLLC and 2 Potential Patterns ahead of the Fed & GDPIt's been a rough week for the Dollar and an expected slowdown in GDP this morning will most likely keep the ball rolling in that same direction. So SELL SELL SELL! Actually who am I kidding? I have no idea what's in store, and neither do you. By now you know how I feel about fundamentals and if you’ve consistently traded the markets over any period of time then you know that trying to guess the number is easy, but trying to guess the reaction to the number doesn’t always go the way you’d think it would. If we expect a bad number and we get it is that still bad news, or has the market already priced this number into the markets over the past few days which is why we’re seeing this decline in the first place? It turns into a chicken or the egg type conversation in my opinion. So me…I’d rather just focus on the technical! And from a technical standpoint technical standpoint what I know is that we've been watching the Dollar Index all week in the Syndicate as it began to test a major level of support that I like to call a decision point. With our "IF/THEN" thought process loaded we were ready to react no matter what the market did at that level. Yesterday we ended up putting in a Lower Low, Lower Close (LLLC) which tells me we should continue to see some bearish movement. IF we continue bearish THEN where is our next most likely stopping point? Well we have 2 potential advanced patterns setting up. A bullish Butterfly in blue and a bullish bat pattern in yellow. It's going to be a busy day with both the GDP release at 8:30am and the FOMC statement/ funds rate at 2pm, but if we pre-program our mind on what to look for, then when the dust settles we'll know exactly what our next move it. There will be no panic in our bones because we’ll know exactly what do look for and whether or not we should execute the trade. Akil www.TradeEmpowered.com
INDEX:DXY
by Akil_Stokes
8
GBPAUD: BULLISH GARTLEY PATTERN @ 1.9338Hey gang! A we've been waiting for some bigger moves on this pair for a while now but have seen nothing but sideways action. Fortunately for pattern traders sideways action isn't always a bad thing as consolidation breeds pattern opportunities. The pattern we have on this pair is going to be a bullish Gartley pattern completing down at the 1.9328s level. Minimum stops should be 10pips below the X leg, but in my professional opinion (I don't use the 10pips rule) it's probably worth risking a few more pips to give yourself the safety of being below the even handle seeing how these psychological numbers often act very similar to structure. Although we have the bigger pattern on the horizon, i wouldn't assume that it's going to complete and would have no reason to get fancy with extended targets or trailing stops for bigger gains. We still haven't broken previous resistance (Bigger B leg) therefore structurally I have no reason to think continuation. For a look at last week's rollercoaster of a ride in the markets please check out my latest blog post "Trading Recap Week 17: Self Evaluation" Good luck this week traders!!! tradeempowered.com Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com
Long
by Akil_Stokes
21
EURAUD: Bearish Gartley Turning Into Bullish CypherComing off a pain free trade on this pair last night our once bearish Gartley pattern's next step could be to complete the C to D leg of a bullish Cypher. Again, EURAUD typically has a pretty large ATR so you want to double check you're risk profile on this one, but aside from that "The Pattern Is The Pattern Is The Pattern." Laid out on the chart are initial ideas for minimum Stop placements and targets, but as I always recommend, please follow your specific rules for stops and of course targets may have to be adjust based on price action. For an inside look at my trading on a day to day basis feel free to check out my blog and today's post "Trading Recap/On My Radar" tradeempowered.com Aki Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil Stokes
Long
by Akil_Stokes
31
USDJPY: Bearish Cypher Pattern @ 119.10Bear Cypher pattern completion @ 119.10. Minimum stops would need to be above 119.35's. Key word minimum. Technically speaking we've been seeing a series of NSH's so one would think that this previous OR would be a good source of resistance. But it's also trading we''re talking about so you never know. Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst www.TradeEmpowered.com "On My Radar: April 20th" ratiotradingmentor.com "trading Recap: Week 16, 2015" tradeempowered.com
Short
by Akil_Stokes
27
EUR consolidation due for further downward trend continuation 1) Strong and respected structure at the $1.08416 level. This has been respected 5 times as outlined in the green circles. 2) Using Fibonacci retracement tool from the $1.10329 to the $1.052 leg we can see a 0.382 confluence with fibonacci level which lies on the $1.08416 structure level and can see that is has been previously respected as well. 3) Using this structure line as an entry for a short position we can enter anywhere between $1.0775 (0.5 Fibonacci level) and the $1.08416 (0.382 Fibonacci level). 4) Stops should be placed around $1.09145 (0.236 Fib level) and take profits around $1.0387 (1.272 Fib level)
Short
by LAMBO77
2
USDCAD SHORT SWING TRADEUsd/cad just broke the channel after hitting major PRZ (potential reversal zone) on weekly. Now we are waiting for pullback back to the previous channel low. Combined with fibonacci retracment 50 and 61.8 This could mean the first strong setup to the down side after long time. It is important to catch first setups of the new trend and it might go down so fast as it was going up in 2014. Entry : D1 or H4 candle pattern (pin bar, inside, engoulfing) or double top...divergence on lower timeframe, maybe harmonic pattern at the top .... Everything is explained on chart itself! Best Regards TradingYo
Short
by TradingYo
4
XAU/USD: Potential Bullish Gartley at Previous Structure SupportLooking at a very deep potential bullish Gartley here on XAUUSD that if completed would come right into previous structure support. The wicks created in that previous support zone made this an opportunity that I like regardless and having an advanced pattern complete at the same level just put icing on the cake. Very low risk opportunity compared to the potential reward as this chart has started to show us some consolidation. Bigger picture, there are a few more setups on the horizon including the potential bearish Bat shown here in orange, but that should matter at this point unless you are a trader that uses such things as a way to shoot for extended targets. We've got a brand new website over at www.tradeempowered.com so make sure you check it out, including an a blog post that I wrote today titled "Trading From A to Z" let me know what you think! Until next time, plan your trad and trade your plan Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst Trade Empowered: Live Your Passion www.TradeEmpowered.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Akil_Stokes
29
EURUSD 4HR Bull Bat Pattern/Learn To Trade The Cypher Correctly*IF YOU"RE LOOKING FOR THE CORRECT RULES ON HOW TO TRADE THE CYPHER PATTERN PLEASE READ THIS ENTIRE POST. ..It's been a busy week on the Euro, with the next big potential setup being a bullish bat pattern completion if the market pushes down to the 1.0527s area. I put on initial targets so that you guys have an idea of where to look for but remember that targets must be adjusted with current price action so there's no telling if they will be there for sure . Below is a link to video i recorded illustrating this very same setup. I don't like sharing links on Tradingview because I don't want to be "that guy" but if you click the link in the info section of my youtube video it will take you to the recorded sessions from the FREE workshop I ran this week. On Day 4 I taught traders how to correctly trade the Cypher pattern. Please check it out . "This Week on the EURUSD" youtu.be Akil
Long
by Akil_Stokes
21