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Imbalances

Update on teslaHi, quick update. i do want to update some bearish technical scenerios that align with liquidity concepts. (neither bullish or bearish idea is 100% to occur and its important to prepare to all scenerios) The latest test on demand was not what i was hoping to see. with prices making bad lows (confirm on TPO) and creating a liquidity pool, showing a lack of strength (market moves on the path of least resistance) from buyers(volume is low market shows uncertainty around current price). We have a gap down (green rectangle) and bad lows, the last imbalances on the chart at 199.48 (if we dont consider the aug 5 bad lows duo to the japanese sell off) These will hit stop losses and reset highly leveraged positions and most importantly will provide wallstreet a premium price on tsla shares. That price aligns with targets from both bearish and bullish sides. as of now we are holding the daily 100 ema the 200 EMA is 201 and the yearly VWAP is also confluencing with that EMA. SHOCKING! If we are at the parliamentary supply a selling climax will follow.. and the target for it would close the imbalance and the gap would provide us a good low to buy from and grab upside liquidity if not break resistance finally. in terms of RSI a sell off to that area will give us an oversold RSI on the daily and hit the orderblocks down there! I am still bullish on tesla but acknowledging these bearish scenerios will help up understand what is happening if they happening. I closed my CFD position in tiny profit but i am still keeping my value investment on and havent sold a bit. I will happily go further down and give myself a nice CFD trade on tesla from these price targets.! This is not a financial advice but simply me sharing my ideas and journaling my investments and trading. I hope you all have a great day I AM STILL BULLISH THERES A REASON WHY THEY ARE CALLED SHORTS (SHORT TERM) AND LONGS (LONG TERM)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by Captainobvious5454
payo are you gonna correct?after the great boom payo brought us some great profits. tbh i havent closed anything and i am still bullish on payo. payo accumulation and bingbongdingdong has been formed for 3 years as of this moment we are attempting to turn previous critical resistance into support. 2 scenerios according to wykoff theory. 1. correction then big money needs to defend its positions and at a reasonable price. fundementally that could be previous value area high (vah upper white line) because we need to create a new value range it would only make sense to turn vah to the new point of control (poc) or the new value area low (where price is traded the most e.g mid range val bottom area) another point to consider for the correction is the gap, so previous point of control to turn value area low or a sweep to that level would provide 4 things first it will close the gap and get rid of that imbalance. 2nd it will shake off weak hands and get rid of breakout traders when it grabs the single print 3rd it will provide a decent price for big money to enter at.. liquidity liquidity liqduidity. 4th provide the oprotunity for hedge shorting and basically thats more fuel to the upside when said shorts close. (so basically proffesionals get paid to pump the market for free) 2. leave everyone behind everyone whos waiting for the correction. that scenerio is less likely to anticipate, depends more on the company preformance and has less upside for big money that wants to accumulate low and provide big gains. i believe the first scenerio is more likely that the other one. the teal circles on the green lines are where i am looking to see reactions for swing fail patterns and adding to my positions luckily i already have an open position on payo for quite a while now, so im chilling.
NASDAQ:PAYOLong
by Captainobvious5454
1
Unlocking the Secrets of Price Inefficiency: Dive Deep into FVG👑Price inefficiencies are also known as imbalances, gaps or voids. Healthy price action moves in a zigzag fashion, making highs and lows in line with the directional bias at any given moment. When price isn’t trending we find it consolidates, in which case highs lows are still being made. However, we may also see price move in straight lines with huge volume and momentum. When this happens, price finds itself unable to deliver price in an efficient manner. For example, in a bullish environment, price may continue to make higher highs without providing higher lows at a discount price. When price moves with this much momentum, it leaves behind imbalances. 🟠An imbalance can be identified by open space in price action, where the wicks on either side of a candle do not match each other. On the left is an example of price inefficiency, since the wick high of candle 1 does not meet the wick low of candle 3, leading to an imbalance on candle 2. 🟠This is an example of healthy price action with no imbalances. This is because all candles have wicks on either side of them. Since wicks were bodies during live price action and are bodies on lower time frames, this shows that price was delivered efficiently to buyers and sellers in this area. Whereas the example above shows an imbalance on a bullish candle, which shows that price was only available to buyers in that imbalance and therefore is not efficient. 👉For price to be efficient, it needs to be delivered to buyers and sellers. This helps us understand that in our original bullish imbalance, price has to come back and fill that imbalance using bearish price action in order to make that price available to sellers. This re-balancing could take hours, days, weeks or years, but it is our job to understand that it must happen at some point. Inline with the rest of the strategy, we can use this knowledge to pick out the specific imbalances that will be filled and how we can capitalise on this. 🟠This is an example of the correctly identified imbalance and where we expect price to react from 🟠This is an example when is our level being met, it is at this point that we use the rest of the strategy and knowledge to capitalise on the move that is about to unfold with high risk:reward entries. 🟠This is the completion of this particular market cycle, with our level being respected and price giving us a nice bullish leg. 🔴Bearish Order Flow: 🟢Bullish Order Flow:
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by algoat
USD JPY - Fresh demand zone, fresh buysG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed. Daily Weekly Monthly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
1
USD JPY - Fresh demand, or await the removal of supplyG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video without log bands and with. This is a high level explanation, so the language used is to provide a blanket cover. Daily Chart Weekly zone Fresh demand for longs Monthly Chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
Nasdaq heading towards supply G'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video without log bands and with. This is a high level explanation, so the language used is to provide a blanket cover. Daily Chart Weekly Chart Monthly Chart Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LupaCapital
XAUUSD | Trade Idea The XAU/USD pair shows a weak growth, again testing the psychological level of 2000.00 for a breakout. At the end of last week, gold quotes showed a sharp decline, retreating from their record highs of March 2022, falling under the influence of technical factors and a new phase of strengthening of the US currency. In addition, traders expect further tightening of monetary policy by the world's central banks in early May. In particular, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are likely to raise interest rates again. The pressure on the position of gold is also exerted by the fact of the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds: the 10-year bonds corrected the day before from 3.522% to 3.595%. Today, the focus of investors will be American statistics on the dynamics of Housing Starts in March, where forecasts suggest a slowdown from 1.45 million to 1.40 million, and the Housing Starts Change may fall from 9.8% to 0.4%.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by DCFX-TA
1
EUR USD - Technical print G'day, Master Key for zones Black = Yearly Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video. Daily trading range Weekly chart Monthly chart Quarterly chart Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - has the market bottom been captured? Time will tellG'day, Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Note before reading - the BLX is a delayed by 1 day of data - so review live charts - logs worth best using the delayed data for future price setups. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Below are some of the take aways from the video without log bands and with. This is a high level explanation, so the language used is to provide a blanket cover. Daily Chart Weekly chart without logarithm bands Weekly - with logarithmic bands Monthly - zoomed in Monthly - market cycle since inception Read more from the original model explaining all the relevant information needed to know on the market cycles by viewing the links; Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
BNC:BLX
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - Buying imbalance in playG'day, This is the first video analysis upload, so the length is something I would like to scale down being more concise in future, however in order to appeal to the broader market, Technicals need to be simplified. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Neutral to the overall monthly demand in control and active long trades. Until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy will be looking for buys as part of the next cycle. This is an investment and not a quick move based on lower time frames. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Recap shots Monthly Weekly Daily Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
BTC USD - Technical regression & ImbalancesG'day, This is the first video analysis upload, so the length is something I would like to scale down being more concise in future, however in order to appeal to the broader market, Technicals need to be simplified. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Neutral to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy will be looking for buys as part of the next cycle. This is an investment and not a quick move based on lower time frames. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Pink = Three, Four Day Orange = Daily Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Daily Potential Move - Short term Bullish break and reload of PCP zone forming Weekly Long term Bearish probability potential outcome to equate to lows of 2022. Bullish Weekly Where price eliminates with CP levels confirming market structure. Weekly regression analysis Bearish curve and bullish pathway. Awaiting the next move for either. Let me know your thoughts and analysis. Each opinion is valid where research is conducted. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by LupaCapital
4
AUD NZD - Buying potential, awaiting further movesG'day traders and welcome to 2023 for a new position trade which is in the works. Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. This is an active trade, now traders can use this for looking at new zones to purchase from. Monthly timeframe The monthly shows a strong test of the structure back in 2013 - where price has tested the September 2013 monthly candle 'close'. Since this structure high, price has had a strong sell off with a large engulfing sell. Review below for the breakdown from the Fresh nested supply towards the demand zone. Monthly updated The monthly FL demand has been activated upon the fresh level. Weekly Timeframe Weekly Updated November 15 and 21st were the key weeks here for the imbalance formation. This departure zone has aligned with the wick formation and will be netted out (at some point). This point has now arrived and price has created a weekly candle which had given the false flag for a final selling push on the weekly. The subsequent week had offered strong buying power with a three day confirmation of the demand FL taking a reactive control. The monthly TL had 'created a bear trap' which the final profit taking has now converted into a new buying imbalance. Four Day in conjunction with Fibonacci extension (sells in play, awaiting buys) The four day has shown the similar zone which aligns nicely with the weekly. Note- here that price has provided a clear sell off which has broken through and on the daily provided a break and retest. This would be the moment for a secondary sell could be placed with a confirmation on the lower timeframe(s). Again structure provides a retest of the previous 'resistance' zone which aligns nicely with the End of August zone. Daily Chart Awaiting the reactive tap and then a further confirmation using the 8 hour or daily if preferred. Price may not reach the desired Daily, three day cross imbalance zone. Upon a confirm - if price fails to provide engulfing moves - then expect a final push to complete the structure pattern within the arrival imbalance. From here, price will need to test the curve and break the high curve allowing long term trades to take place. Updated - After waiting for the monthly TL to be crossed - price has now offered a strong rejection level. Price has created a fresh demand level and even stronger engulfing candle which departed using the strategy eclipsing the previous candle closes - allowing a fresh pivot to be formed in line with structure left and the TL break and retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 6+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXIII
by LupaCapital
2
BTC USD - anticipating the low in 2023Update to the full version which is published June 6th 2022. Review the full article below in linked - Second link is a private update - now made public. G'day traders, investors, analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Neutral due to the overall monthly Supply PCP in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the pattern completion to a fresh demand tap has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. The methodology here is to trade spot and or invest, futures contracts to hold positions for periods over a span of weeks to months. If this is not specifically aligned to 'your strategy' then at least appreciate the structure. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Technical Setup Acronyms Key: CP - Continuation pattern DBD - Drop Base Drop OP - Original price DCA - Dollar Cost Average FL - Fresh Levels Check the updates to see where the logarithmic charts have taken us. Analysis's below Original outlook and full in depth analysis below. BTC - Outlooks for the Future A smaller counter trade buy and sell opportunity provided below; Daily update Short Term CP. Monthly Chart (no log) The monthly has created the supply zone at the all time high with confirmations provided on the weekly with a $9,000 ending at a a slight bullish indecision provided a test of the monthly curve (bullish), price broke and retested this with the consecutive bearish move. These two weeks from a $55,000 confirmation sell, provides a fresh supply zone. Price then on began the slippery slope of creating a 'Low', whereby price put in a lower low, before looing back to a pivot position back between December 2021 with the four weeks, creating a 'base' which aligned with the market structure (left). The weekly log chart shows price is below the fair value of BTC comprised of time of writing ($25,100) - technical traders will realise this is the previous PCP level and supply. Price has now formulated within the weekly zone as a retest, however yet to indicate a deep test of the zone (down to $15,000). Refer to article on historical diminishing returns and the lows of previous years (BTC - outlooks for the future). The latest Supply FL between $23-25.1k shows the sheer strength of the bearish moves taking place at present, along with the high curve which is being respected. updates price has now shown the mid regression band is in affect, where by price is well below the market fair value - with the weekly chart delayed by one day. Refer to BTC USD where the latest engulfing on the daily chart has been provided. Four Day chart The weekly and Four day provides the clear picture where the steep curve is intact and yet to be broken on a retest. This is due to the OL still yet to be tapped and the current zone acting as a strong tested zone - whether this will hold. The four day supplies are nested within the weekly chart so the above information holds as the structure of the market is outlined above. Daily Chart Where can price go? - it looks clear upon the current price cycle that price is looking towards the retest of the double bottom at the low of $17,500, this depends on the current double daily bottom of the $18.2k to be over come first. The downward channel as been creating multiple impulse, corrective and subsequent impulses again - this is due to the market structure (left) this enables the price action to show where price can free fall and where a hurdle has occurred - forming a pivot point for a correction or a consolidative base formation. latest update Daily Chart re-aligned for present values as at 16th Dec 2022 all notes above still apply - the only difference now is that after the break of the smaller channel - BTC is indicating a short term pivot to a selling level to continue the sells. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
BNC:BLX
by LupaCapital
USD JPY -Awaiting the fresh buying zoneG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy rated, bullish. Monthly Price has established a zone of interest, where price has reached the 1998 Departure level. Yet to test the completed supply of 1987 Supply zone as marked on the chart. The 152 level was tapped which looking at the QTR chart which highlights this easier on the chart. This supply zone is a fresh touch - showing a strong level as the sell imbalance has reacted upon the Daily, weekly chart. This fresh supply to many was not a level for-seen for many traders, however the technical correction now is a strong pivot position as marked. As the sequence has not completed (overall long) price is using this sell opportunity to now look for new zones for purchasing (especially on the weekly and monthly). - Three month chart - this assists here with Weekly Price has established a technical zone from a fresh supply in place from 152-146. Although the opportunity here is a 600pip zone. Short sellers will have taken over in the smaller time zones. Again reference to the three month chart against the weekly below - Weekly/QTR chart. The weekly distal has been established - with the 152.00 being the stop loss or slightly above for sells. The left chart - weekly shows the key retest of the QTR zone and successfully rejects this level. Looking for buys on the chart offers two zones - 1. The PCP or FL demand ranging between 135-130.5 (est). Now having this zone in place - imbalance traders will need to follow the rules of a break of curve - clear rejection upon a reactive wick or await an engulfing move in favour of a squeeze or (descending triangle), consolidation and or a pattern interchangeable of both. The second zone of interest here offers the combo box of the monthly and weekly zones - pointed out with the 'Green' eclipse and the monthly zone. For a market structural cycle - price can net out here (revert to chart - with the Fibonacci extension which points towards the imbalance alignment. Weekly/QTR Chart - Fibonacci Extension Daily chart The daily shows the price is now shifting from the pivot point from 137.5 (est) - creating now a bullish reaction towards the range top of 142.** this will be the prime range of establishing a bull and sell position within a range formation. The down trend is still prominent with down and right on the overall short term basis from the from chart with the daily supply zones added with a price looking to pivot towards 141.3X area which is the next zone of interest from the view of a lower high formation. A Bearish chart option - where price can break the pivot. Adding Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
by LupaCapital
AUD NZD - Approaching the next phaseG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Monthly timeframe The monthly shows a strong test of the structure back in 2013 - where price has tested the September 2013 monthly candle 'close'. Since this structure high, price has had a strong sell off with a large engulfing sell. Review below for the breakdown from the Fresh nested supply towards the demand zone. Weekly Timeframe Four Day in conjunction with Fibonacci extension The four day has shown the similar zone which aligns nicely with the weekly. Note- here that price has provided a clear sell off which has broken through and on the daily provided a break and retest. This would be the moment for a secondary sell could be placed with a confirmation on the lower timeframe(s). Again structure provides a retest of the previous 'resistance' zone which aligns nicely with the End of August zone. Daily Chart Awaiting the reactive tap and then a further confirmation using the 8 hour or daily if preferred. Price maynot reach the desired Daily, three day cross imbalance zone. Upon a confirm - if price fails to provide engulfing moves - then expect a final push to complete the structure pattern within the arrival imbalance. From here, price will need to test the curve and break the high curve allowing long term trades to take place. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY - Imbalance pathway to fillG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones. This is tagged Long due to the overall monthly demand in control , until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - shorts are held. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation using daily timeframes for longs towards the target (refer to monthly). Weekly As per previous analysis, GBP JPY pivoted to the weekly and monthly combo demand zone tapping 148.718* - refer to link here: or below. The reactive week fell and aligned perfectly to the December 2021 zone where price had closed out all long positions in a drastic sell off. The reason for the weekly zone sell off to this zone is best shown in the monthly zone. Review the monthly below for further clarity. Price since the sell off move towards the FL/OL Weekly and Monthly Demand combination - testing the imbalance (proximal line for short profits) has now been reversed and classed as a distal line (for stop losses). The proximal line was broken to the daily timeframe and four hour respectively for loading up on buy positions. Monthly TF for upon closer inspection. Monthly Timeframe Looking left - shows the importance of price action built up from 2012 - August 2015 respectively - this has indicated market top. Using a long term view reviewing market structure, the price action pivot points are clearly displayed below and will be marked (review Figure 2) Since the break of structure or (BOS) from July 2020s engulfing departure - GBP began the next cycle of moving towards a short term FL supply flip zone, of which later this zone becomes a CP for a Rally Base Rally (RBR). Since March 2022 - a new PCP has formed - where the consolidative pattern from February to June 2016 - this has indicated a strong pivot within the curve - acting as a Fresh supply. Where price has formed a bullish candle above 163.8X. (Acting confirms are below and outlined from a daily wick which fell to 148.X). Figure 2 - 2012 - 2015 Pivot point monthly markup. Notes Ellipse 2015 - the marked zone here is where price action has consolidated due to a weekly pivot point hidden with the monthly structure. With this singular candle (inside bar) in this case price will look to the this level for a Potential continuation pattern (PCP) subject to confirms. As a first point of call - the PCP acts as a fresh supply zone. It will pivot to a zone of interest within itself - however this consolidation formation has not occurred out of nowhere. The reason for this - is to look left back into 2003 - structure here had created a similar price action range which pushed sideways for around 10 months. Having this pivot without any large pivot points to fall back on solidifies the strategy in play of a Monthly time frame referring to - Rally Base Rally scenario. From here the sell off was imminent from a FL level as the supply is now in control firmly. Using the FL monthly TF, price needed to break the high curve and generate a break and re-test, this provides a clear monthly confirmation. The reason why this risk-calculated move is provided is due to a preventative measure for price to penetrate the Supply further. Reverting to the weekly candlesticks will provide a clearer view of the supply. Two points of interest show the break of curve upon the weekly for a top of the curve sell. The second (lower purple curve) shows the overall confirmed second risk adjusted entry or upon the failed break and retest of the supply. Daily sell breakdown - July 30, 2022 Analysis Price has created a fresh Daily supply within the weekly - all though unable to view this formation admittedly, the small Daily anchored move has been added. A fresh daily supply has been created within the orange box while previously considered a range top - this is a situation where price return with a probability of the lower high wick formed. However to note, where price continues to break the TL - bearish CP (continuation pattern) will form. From here opportunities will highly probable to take price down towards the destination. The current market state - Daily timeframe Price is showing strong confirmation levels as outlined below - the Demand highlighted between 159-162. The has already created a 'retest' within a weekly candle, so the building up of this zone is already strong and in play. With reference to the Gap down October 21st - price had tested this level and produced (broker dependent) an equal low or slightly lower low. Now the formation of this candle the following trading day rejecting the gap- it offered buyers to be present and close out potential short sellers. Omitted Trading opportunities for ranges, longs Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
Long
by LupaCapital
XAU USD - October outlook towards 2023G'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Short due to the overall monthly supply in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - shorts are held. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily White = Structural move down Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Monthly Rejection from a double top or retest of the supply has allowed the free move of Gold to establish Impulses on the downtrend. Price has created a consecutive 6 bearish candles from April 2022, which matches structure of April 2020. Now, the correlation here between SPX & XAU shows a bullish run towards the equal high for XAU in 2020, and shows the departure sell to present towards the PCP in a Drop base drop scenario at the first monthly landing zone or this will form the pivot point whereby price will use probability and confirmation rules to react off said level to create a new long structure. Further Monthly Weekly The OL supply has created an impulse of four consecutive weeks, pivoted back to a reversion point (aligning to the structure left with range highs at resistance levels). The curve has also indicated with the lower high formed on the weekly pointing to $1995 - subject to the curve creation here - price will look to test said curve at different positional points which forms using reversion pivots towards 50-61.8% using the Fibonacci sequence. Please note the zoomed in trading range below where white boxes, represent the trading range. Scaled in weekly Daily Red box represents untapped room for shorting - looking left provides the clear price drop still available for the next zone. The daily chart as indicated a smoother curve which connects multiple lower highs where price has failed to 'tap' the curve keeping the strong. The chart below shows the (ii) shows the resistance (PCP) daily levels which allow the strategy of a Drop Base Drop scenario to continue with the structure cycle occurring multiple times (to present) we are on cycle three. This current status of the structure shows a strong lower high formation into the Fresh supply level and a new sell off zone is ready to be anchored. Following the rules of supply and demand zones - this supply will now look to test the range low at the daily demand between $1600 - 1620. (ii) Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by LupaCapital
1
LUNC - The potential road to recoveryG'day, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. LUNC Burn 5. Information on Lupa. A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Short due to the overall monthly supply in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - shorts are held. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bullish move. The Technicals at play during the current time will be extremely dynamic - however the pathway has established a strong demand. Now the slow process is gearing up. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily White = Structural move down Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Daily chart Price has been squeezed once the floor and has also provided analyzing structure where a Symmetrical pattern had created the strong upside which was presenting itself. The latest - price has created a Pivot demand for a single candle creation - at 0.00017XX lows. The previous supply had also established a pivot single candle rejection from the 0.007X and rejected. Potential channel breakout Structure left - does not provide much help in this instance where the Floor Cap has been created. However key takeaways on the Four day Demand Price has established a nice pivoted demand which on the 2-4 day chart has indicated a PCP zone which is now a FL zone (subject to price action and confirmation rules). The pink line represents the imbalance where price has successfully closed out with the high at 0.00017XXX The Four day chart eradicates the noise - all be it at current the price action is still currently forming so this technical analysis is still early, however a strong floor has been created and price action. The technical patterns thus far have created a 'Strong engulfing candle' which allows the impulsive pattern and a great slow tail off in a corrective pattern forming, allowing the low to form which aligns with structure (looking left). Key lows - have formed at the weekly zone. Weekly Weekly candle of pure drama where the collapse occurred with failure to peg the stabilize UST and Luna with collateral as BTC holdings. The minting and burning of converting Terra to Luna also contributed to the price collapse with a death spiral with the ever increasing supply being created. The balancing mechanism provided a clear imbalance which needed addressing but failed to be maintained. This has lead to the new Luna Classic token to be established with holders converting previous Luna Tokens being converted into Luna Classic or LUNC. Token Burn tax of 1.2% "Terra community has passed Proposals 3568 and 4159, which will introduce a 1.2% tax burn for on-chain transactions of LUNC and USTC on Terra Classic network." - creating this burn taxation upon deposits, withdrawals will allow the overall supply of tokens circulated to create a scarcity as now a finite ever reducing supply is in effect. The demand creation from said shrinking supply availability like BTC possesses will in turn create a bullish demand for holders and in the long term price action will be reflected to price points (all be it, target prices will vary) due to a multitude of variables such as, inflows, volume traded, staking of coin supply to remove from circulation, time, holders to maintain longevity, supply reduction and transparency). www.binance.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Focus on investing for long term positional moves Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXII
LLong
by LupaCapital
4