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Imbalances

SPX500 Update - The Imbalance is forming, what to do?Note before reading; The previous analysis was private, but included in the following analysis; Here: or refer to the bottom link Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the moment, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances for additional sells. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, but is beginning to profit take and show signs of cracking. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Scenario - consists of a pullback of the market once the low has been made, where price always corrects. Keep in mind the -0.618 can and has the likelihood of returning to 4465*+ to 4702, assess the reactive level again upon an impending sell. Do your due diligence. Where price makes an all time high, price will revert most like back to "0" Fibonacci zero before reloading a bullish run. However, with the -0.786 Yet to be reached, price can offer this level to provide a large pivot point upon an imbalance created, with a liquidity spike capturing stop losses to most . See the second chart proposing the outlook where the full completion occurs. Current position short Short offset to hedge longs is activated adding shorts once the imbalance has formed and retested successfully SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. *Note: please refer to US30 analysis or VIX for inverse relationship of correlation, not causation* Current scenario Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Current outlook; Using the Daily chart Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. The analysis link is attached. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! But this is no longer the case as for the wider majority - prices are now starting to take shape and cuts need to be made, and rates need to be hiked. Daily Fibonacci using the USD CAD The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price retested the Imbalance upon the weekly back to lows of 1.23 - 1.22, majority of original buyers will find new entries and the sellers would be looking to remove profits or shaken out of late positions added. - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps and has now double bottomed and now heading towards "0" Fibonacci. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Is inflation now transitory - with new FED comments - "Clearly the risk of more persistent inflation has risen," Powell said in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. ... He pledged that policymakers "will use our tools to make sure that higher inflation does not become entrenched." source: www.channelnewsasia.com www.bloomberg.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USD
by LupaCapital
2
EUR CAD - Buying power enters the marketHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the Neutral term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. *** This is released publicly - normally 2-5 days after private idea is released*** Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Weekly imbalances The Weekly Imbalance upper is drawn upon the inside candle before the price purely rejected monthly zone. Looking left - the previous weeks have established a trading range between the Monthly zone and the -0.27% Fibonacci Pivot. The selling Imbalance had created an equal top forming the weekly zone where price has failed to create higher highs. Price highs at 1.578 draw a weekly trendline on the to the anchor low to March 2021. The price has failed to break the weekly correctional channel here, therefore upon the high price has rejected to the "0" upon the Monthly Fibonacci pivot. Now with this formation, price will on the daily chart offer a highly probable engulfing breakout to the selling imbalance catching all buyers who expect the breakout. In addition to this - Using the weekly formation imbalance now formed - the next imbalance to be placed will be placed upon correctional pattern once "0" is established - looking to how price has previously recorded - the correctional hedge will offer 50-61.8% where a large consolidated structure exists - until price reacts at the these pivot zones - this is where a reactive trade is placed and sell limits. The inverse imbalance take profit zones are aligned near the monthly 0.705 at 1.421 and the -0.618 is a 1.4195. Prices will with a 95%> confidence upon the pivot reactive levels where both align . Monthly imbalance approaches The monthly imbalances are now presenting the change of hands with a probability in favour of a buying imbalance. Looking left; the reason for drawing this zone here is for two reasons; I. Using the anchor ray to plot a monthly trendline - where the low wicks have formed higher lows which have rejected liquidity zones based upon the where the monthly May 2015 candle formed with an indecision. II. Using the Fibonacci based upon the drawn zone - the correction is large here and corrects back directly to retest the imbalance and rests the wicks on the newly formed zone. II.I - Price has also developed a Net Imbalance upon the monthly zone. Using a 95% confidence based on the price pivoting upon the standard error of within =<5.0% between 61.8 and the 70.5% FR - Please refer to the white zone below, which shows the probability of the 70.5% pivot which has a statistical probability of rejecting. from a charting standpoint this doesn't matter, the point is here to purchase upon rejections using logic of a structure low, to structural highs and purchasing upon a rejected pivot. Revert to the chart below. The upper imbalance has formed based on the profit taking zones from the Fibonacci at the -0.27, -0.618 profit taking zones and has since been retested twice; The true upper limit of the imbalance is pivoting and rejecting from 1.616X at -0.618, price has now corrected to a selling imbalance and offers a "0" Fibonacci inverse pivot to retest the imbalance again which also aligns to the Fibonacci sequence 0.236 at the following levels = 1.4909 and 1.4915 and as a high probability shows imbalances to be retested . See below. Now moving to the current positional imbalance. In combination with the Weekly Fibonacci and weekly imbalances above; The Monthly anchor imbalance is formed under two criteria; I. The large scale Fibonacci Imbalance at 0.705% correctional pivot - this will be retested and rejected. II. This is Inverse Fibonacci selling imbalance profit taking zone at -0.618. Waiting and placing trades in this zone will be based on the criteria on; A position placed upon rejection A position placed between the 0.705-0.786 or on the inverse -0.618, -0.786. Daily Chart The daily chart scales in much quicker and offers - the clear opportunity for a reversal of buys, the reason being - price has shown price pivoting for two three reasons; I. The monthly Fibonacci and Imbalance zone aligns - with a tap into the monthly zone. II. The Weekly and Monthly combination of 0.705% and -0.618 matches the imbalance zones drawn. III. The Daily chart poises the pivot level and creating a consolidative bottom zone - . Price will now breakout of the Daily trendline and also - indicate a new trading range to now test the -0.27 and "0" based on the range data indicated on the chart. Correlational analysis; Both of the below analysis's provide tracking updates since back to 2020, so revert back to old analysis to see where price has come from and enjoy the reads. Note - Both trades are still active: Check out to see and track the EUR CAD - USD JPY inverse relationship GBP AUD Why is the DXY important to even non correlated pairs in this instance? - USD is still seen as a world currency - despite conflicting use deteriorating The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Where are now, currently using the weekly chart USD CAD Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
3
Shiba INU - We are in the zone of interest (be patient)Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; Weekly Correction almost here; Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance update The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. Daily Chart update Previous analysis; Daily talk points The daily ray is intact with 3 zones of a trend rejection showing the longs are in positional play The daily close out of the correction shows that the 50% and 0.000047X is a strong psychological value which rests upon a daily and weekly imbalance zone. Further to this - expecting a deep correctional pattern to the 61.8% or 70.5% whereby price has a <90% confidence of testing where price as opened price. The lower highs being created from the wicks by looking left have offered shorts to be closed out and retested with sellers unable to provide lower lows in the market. This is a sign the trend is reversing for you support and resistance traders. Please be aware that while analysing ETH, BTC, XRP, ADA - the reversion imbalances have often tested 70.5% so expect a pullback to the weekly zone as shown below. To see further studies of this - review my other analysis'. What the top formation correction would offer at a highly probable scenario The chart speaks for itself as to what occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD JPY - Buying, Waiting, Selling [11]Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral to Bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances up to specific areas of interest. After this, risk becomes a highly probable scenario of invalid trades and losses. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Do not exceed risk from buying at the tops of structures. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Weekly, the featured focus Looking left to 2008, what is shown? See below for the formation of the multiple tests of the imbalance formation and consolidation upon a retest of the imbalance - where, two tests of a marginal wick test almost nets or equal to the previous low. Whilst upon the consolidation zone built across a four month trading range, notice a clear rejection and following a four consecutive higher low formation. Monthly Below The monthly imbalances have been set with a clear pathway for the change of hands upon the lower imbalance , where price had completed the pattern in the inverse Fibonacci sequence upon the monthly . From how the formation setup, the clear opportunity to sell created the swing high and swing low on the monthly wicks. Price had developed the following; - Fibonacci Inverse extension had created a correctional pullback to the 50.0% but the importance here for this part of the trade offers a clue that price began to struggle to inch higher. The two previous bearish wick closes (before price tested the 50% zone), showed a breakout wave which allowed the range to create an engulfing pattern to falsely generate and mislead buyers. The net imbalance is highlighted above where price closed out on the candle body close, which means price has successfully closed out all buyers. The buying imbalance from the monthly zone at the swing low has been clear rejections upon the weekly chart , with the closing of the monthly wick, and the new formation of the an inside imbalance formed has indicated a clear long opportunity. From a weekly perspective - this now counts as the imbalance swing low. Back to the monthly, the pattern completed as above, now shows with this formed low, price will now look to change of hands upon the imbalance of sellers as opposed to buyers. Awaiting confirmations at the pivot point between the -0.27,-0.618 had allowed the opportunity to confirm and form. Looking at the historical patterns the chart has formed back in 2008, the previous imbalance origin, price had closed within the 50% body of the imbalance formation, showing a clear test and rejection >95% confidence of a bullish reversal. Daily Imbalance Price has made a new top above the previous structure "0" based on the supply imbalance upon the weekly. To show this, revert to the below chart which shows a double top formation and a break of the trend named This indicates that the buyers created a new fresh zone, which immediately is tested and corrects, knowing that imbalances have a confidence level of >95% to retest before correcting further to a Fibonacci pivot structure. From the top, a hedging trade 'sell opportunity was presented' and the sell wave began before a buying imbalance were to form as indicated above. Buys only were formed from this zone. The daily also presents the opportunity for a reversal as the inverse Fibonacci shows a take profit pivot upon the 82.2X zone at -0.27, but this is a crucial buying pivot upon the monthly at -0.27 whereby buyers will continue to add to the discounted price. Daily chart based on the pip range to expect for longs to swing trades on. Pathway In this scenario, looking for long opportunities from the imbalance based of the Fibonacci pivot and also the key driver - where the four day chart provides a double wick close at the same level (82.24) showing that the zone is highly probable of a liquidity zone (imbalance of buyers to sellers ratio) upon a rejection will indicate buy triggers. Cross-Asset: Review USD JPY chart and analysis; Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - Purchase on 61.8% FibonacciHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour An update to the previous analysis - The criteria will be linked below; This can be an intra-day trade or an additional buy to already long positions. Update from the previous; Daily View Please refer to the weekly and monthly for this analysis. See the latest analysis here; Monthly Chart Snippet - Clean view Weekly; Expect wicks at imbalances and allow reactive levels to confirm where price will take us. The Pound, Australian Dollar provides a great hedges for the long positions so remember to capitalise on them to protect capital or to simply create quick profits. Here is a probable scenario leading to the end of 2021 Volume Profile Analysis Note the key volumes of interest surrounding the key area of interest - relating to 1.82XX zone with 10.734M value area down as opposed to the 10.937M value area up. This critical area along with the above 11.554 X 11.887 has seen the incremental change shift from sellers to buyers. The reality is the volume is here assist with the opportunities. Refer back to the monthly chart to see where the imbalance dots connect and align with a bullish opportunity. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
USD JPY - November Walk upon breakout Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Note adding longs are in position and further can be added upon breakout of 8hour analysis below. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. This is a public upload after private idea is now offered, review the analysis below. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. Where we are now Price has consolidated upon the weekly and daily showing a corrective move occurring but the shorter term retracement is forming nicely upon the 61.8% . Weekly Chart Upon the weekly chart price has created a long opportunity which extended out of the previous weekly imbalance and has created a new zone. Price had corrected upon an engulfing breakout candle after a consolidation wave which adopted the next move. Upon the breakout of this zone, price now walks up to the monthly imbalance and once the zone is breached, price is expected to retrace to build on the order block as a reversion pivot. Using the Fibonacci sequence and combination of the price pivoted back to the -0.27 and 0.618% which both align. So from this rejection, using probability the imbalance has now formed a strong block. Using the replay bars - price had moved exactly where the price was forecast. The previous analysis from March 2021 showed this clearly. Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Note* , adapt to the longer term scenario. Four & Eight hour correctional pattern The correctional pattern shows a reliable trading pattern in terms of correcting from an impulse move. Price has offered multiple tests creating lower highs and establishing lower lows in the correctional move, but as the consolidation build up exchanges in this zone - price is continuing to fall towards the level desired at the pivot point. Looking at the Four Hour chart now - price has shown descending patterns and simple break and retest patterns a like to catch the shorter term day trading moves. From a patient trader who trades positions or swings - catching a correctional hedge from the top or awaiting buys is why we wait as the choppiness of the market here is clear liquidity for advanced traders. Two opportunities of are of interest in the four hour channel. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Firstly isolating the US05Y-US02Y chart monthly Using Imbalances and Fibonacci - two trades are identified with a selling example , and to the right a buying opportunity is clear where Yields are representing a change of hands The monthly shows upon an imbalance formation a buying opportunity for break and retests and also with the aggressive minded who react upon the pivot point - a long opportunity is present. Note how both failed upon the 0.382% on the selling imbalance correction and now the buying imbalance correction. The weekly Highlights the opportunities further enhanced views. Again both trades follow the top to bottom and now bottom to top reverse analysis. Here is the daily current scenario for the treasuries. The 0.382 held, with the weekly zone not required as the pivot zone supported the bullish imbalance from the weekly zone so an upper imbalance in the "walking up" had been created. Where we are now in terms of the cross-asset comparison: Tracking the DXY - view the analysis at the bottom to track further. the DXY and USD JPY are all showing a clear presence where the path is in correlation and now it is providing probabilities in favour for long additions as the causation is at peak markets but at the same time flows of funds are being moved from profit takers to new asset classes and as well as the USD showing it's strength as fundamentals are in play behind the scenes such as CPI jumps, consumer confidence and also GDP metrics. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
Potential 🦇 Forming USDCAD We have a potential bat pattern forming on the Daily between the weekly HL,LL, we're currently on a weekly downtrend so any pullback on the daily is to fill the weekly gap. Price is currently bullish and ranging on the Daily so I'm looking for price to break the daily highs but first to potentially drop (Filling some imbalaces left over from the previous push) but staying within the Daily Bullish Structure before then breaking the daily highs. Let me know your thoughts!
Long
by benalistarfx
GBP USD - Testing a crucial zone - November updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Previous Analysis Monthly Imbalance Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. The structure Indicates all in a clear move. Profit zones in terms of adding the red dotted line, indicates where measured sells will be closed out. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to faulter. Hence a higher sell probability. Moving to where we are now using the weekly. Based on the above and previous analysis update, we have seen tremendous growth in terms of selling off as a bearish imbalance. Price has double bottomed upon the "Fibonacci 0" which aligns to the imbalance upon the weekly candle as shown in the purple zone. Price can reject immediately as the zone is strong, however the probability of price to overextend to the -0.27 or reject in between upon the body of the weekly bearish inside candle (looking left) this is a highly probable zone to change hands. 8 Hour view & 16hour view the 8 hour time session provides a clear impulse, correction and impulse time and time again in this trade, offering multiple tops to sell from and if looking to hedge, buying opportunities which are presented too. The pivot points of said correctional moves have created lower high formations upon the Fibonacci sequence which given probability of using "falling, to the right" approach, then the trend is showing where price is looking to take us, ideally walking down. Zoom into the 1hour and 15mins for precise entries, although it's not about this, the overall idea is to use risk management and keep stop losses out of reach to allow price to breath on the original move. 16 hours before See the 16hour analysis to assist further; This lays down to the four hour chart too, consisting of the same pattern 16 hours after A four hour view The four hour view provided a clear See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. Please note* I'm not tracking this any further as the shift of weak GBP and Strong AUD & CAD no longer aligned with asymmetrical movements. Commodity moves have raised the state of AUD, CAD respectively towards correctional tests upon imbalances. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
2
Shiba Inu - A full technical analysisHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Excuse the delay on this, I began writing this on the 24th October. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour What is Shiba Inu Token? The First look at the Shiba Inu token came in August of 2020, when its developers took live with the creation to the market, along with an anonymous creator known as “Ryoshi” with an initial supply of one quadrillion tokens, of which was to send 50% of all the tokens on Uniswap and threw away the key (effectively render useless). The remaining 50% were then gifted away, or “ burned ”, to the Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Market dominance Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link. Attached to the chart is Shiba Inu Dominance tracking - where a positive correlation relating to added userbase, volume of transactions using the 26-27th trading activity for reference 24-hour trading volume of $10,2B USD which adds overall long position sentiment. What must happen now to the supply of ERC-20 tokens? Well in order to reduce the supply will of course boost the price having a fixed circulation of tokens available will to those who hold will incur investors to gain. The supply Total is 1,000,000,000,000,000 or 1Quadrillion coins; where the following calcs have been removed; Burn Wallet = -410,253,870,302,595 Uniswap = - 94,183,555,893 India Covid Relied = -10,139,544,347,612 Vitalik Buterin = -46,000,000,201,480 (0xab58) Review the etherscan here for the transactions etherscan.io Est circulating supply retained 497,730,966,630,395 or 497Trillion coins With Supply Burn Triggers - let's do the maths. so using every listing $25k shib and leash - burn implements. Use 1,000 listings for $25k = 25million burned Using a burn rate of 3%, and based on 100m coins and an annual 30% YOY gain in price with a supply of 497T coins. Based on price at a current price 0.00005660 The formula would look like so. =current price*(1+Annual increase YOY)+(Coin supply-new supply after burn)/New net total coin supply Other variables to consider will be;** Refer to model note Implied Crypto market cap, Implied ship market cap, implied Price & Burning factors Refer to BTC chart below or to track the Crypto Dominance vs Total market cap - refer to the link below Doge Vs Shiba Inu against relative market Dominances. Attached is the private tracking of the two coins and the represented inverse correlation between the two Coins. The negative correlation of the Dogecoin price as well as the dominance is taking effect with the rise of the inverse correlation coin Shiba, whereby the addition of trade volume and ecosystems on which the crypto's are built on are now beginning to take effect. With Doge having a peak of 4% of the market and a market cap of $89.5-7BN, the coins price is now on a market decline as it is now established, but has not yet reached the desired imbalance nor %Dominance which comes with it. A possible coin fluctuation price can be highly probable between the purple imbalance Doge Imbalance upon the monthly and weekly combined 8 Hour chart What is the 8 hour chart showing? Well firstly, a great formation of a correctional symmetrical triangle using the 8hour session candles. This chart pattern has formed through the formation of either a declining lower highs and or an increasing lower lows. Two lines are drawn upon the line squeezes which moves towards an Apex. Depending on inclining higher lows and higher highs within the structure squeeze, then the pattern will produce a bullish continuation upon the Apex breakout. Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle Bearish example using Shiba INU Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. Four Day chart Why here? The pull back on the four day chart had resulted in the building block which had perfectly placed itself upon the Fibonacci pivot zones upon the 38.2-50% - this formed the block to gain pivotal long additions as a double tweezer bottom occurred as well as a bearish candle which pulled back, this creates to most shorter time frame traders being daily time frame and below, a correctional move to instate a block which closes on the half body of the introductory candle from the top wick. This failed to break the weekly imbalance and has shown a high probability for added long positions. Market Capitalisation of ShibaINU: Refer to Coinmarket cap for further information regarding supplies, analytics and the ever changing landscape of the Volume, market cap of the top Crypto's. coinmarketcap.com Four Hour chart The four hour has shown two areas of key interest for adding longs, one key market structure offers the consolidation where price broke out of the triangle apex and engulfed, but came to a high, of which needed a move to look for a Fibonacci pivot based on the structure newly formed which showed a pivot point between 50-61.8% but provided tweezer bottom which is perfect rejection candles to see when analysing the candlesticks. The rejection upon the 50% again has provided the extension pattern to complete at a 1.618 Extension and further, but ofcourse first the hurdle is to retest the Supply imbalance based upon the Fibonacci "0"* and the introduction of the all time high. (See below) A smaller scale imbalance which has just been used at the time of writing has shown the netting of, the selling pressure has netted of the wick - therefore closing out at a showing the zone is valid as an equal low has incurred and buying change of hands has occurred again upon counter-traders and profit takers. *Fibo Shiba Inu Ecosystem: What is Leash and Bone? LEASH tokens are staked or buried, the one staking the coins receives a reward in the form of x LEASH tokens, effectively the holders of x Leash holders are part of the liquidity pool, where a new block is created holders receive a proportional value to share of the pool. The digger of the of token receives a share of Leash ETH SSLP * Bone burying BONE tokens, the user receives tBONE. This entitles the holder the right to be part of a pool that provides the members 1% of all the BONE per block. And digging, in this case, is similar to the function for the LEASH tokens. The person digging or providing liquidity receives a share of the Bon -ETH SSLP* What is Shibaswap? This is a decentralized exchange created for the Shiba Inu community. The community gathers around three main coins: SHIB (the foundational currency of the Shiba Inu, II - LEASH (incentivised on ShibaSwap), and BONE (ShibaSwap’s governance token). The exchange/Swap allows buyers, sellers of the ERC-20 token to be supported by the Shibaswap exchange. Bury Staking (also known as BURY): staking pools for the ecosystem’s tokens (SHIB, BONE, LEASH). It allows you to earn token rewards while staking the tokens. Each pool has different time-locking intervals as well as APYs. Rewards are in the 3 figures percentages and are paid in BONE. Further fundamental news which assist the price increases NFT token - 10,000 digitalized “lovable creatures” sold out in minutes, Shiba Inu NFTs were available only on the protocol’s DEX – ShibaSwap, buying and trading will be “completely free (except for the gas fee)." - which uses ETH from 0.1ETH + Shiba INU token burns - through transactions Bigger Entertainment - 20Shib tokens burned per song while listening to a playlist of 397 songs. Robinhood listing* - creating further opportunities to further userbase now having access to the crypto to trade. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
10
Potential Crab Forming 🦀GBPCAD - I'm waiting to see if PA breaks the Daily Lower High (Close to the X point) Price broke structure on the weekly to the downside and daily is also bearish, right now we have a 0.382 pullback on the weekly which has created the new Daily lower high, price is at a pivot point, could go either way. We have trapped liquidity above and also imbalances to fill (Which the crab pattern completion fills nicely, giving us very nice entries for shorts) So it would make sense for price to head in this direction however....If the bears are too strong, momentum could continue down... Whats your thoughts?
by benalistarfx
XAG USD - found its feetHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart: Weekly Chart Presents two scenarios; 1. Break and rested upon a break from the channel and formation on the daily. 2. A rejection of the channel, but a change of hands ever present upon the weekly imbalance zone XAG USD four Day [analysis originating from May 21st 2021. Weekly Chart The weekly chart is currently in the monthly zone or if a Fibonacci retracement pivot trader, this zone aligns the monthly 50% and 61.8% ratios whereby the bullish imbalance will takeover. While Gold does not have a clear rejection of the 61.8% low of $1680 zone, and again the 50% - where price is currently forming upon the $1766mark.* *note, the price as it is currently forming, will still experience wicks to the downside pressure upon a daily and weekly chart until the rejection zone has netted off with a lower timeframe imbalance. What does the Weekly Symmetrical triangle show? Based off how symmetrical triangles works both in a bearish and bullish capacity. However the difference here is that in this scenario - using probability upon how the candlesticks have displayed upon the chart, a bearish formation while not a text book definition, will normally print a closer lower high, lower high upon the downside lower weekly line forming the bottom of the structure, however a mechanism here the higher timeframe is offering here is a very heavy "resistance", or in a more technical approach, an imbalance between buyers, sellers and pivot points within the trading range. [ See chart below labelled 1 ] Using the higher lows the chart is producing, *the sentiment bias leans to bullish, however, adding positions will occur upon rejected levels as opposed to intra-day trades. Chart 1 Gold Daily Chart Monthly Gold Chart The imbalances are clear defined zones of where price has previously captured highs and lows and created imbalances upon buying or selling pressure - depending on the trading outlook. Formations whilst experiencing new data with no implied candlesticks either changing the landscape in which a top or bottom has not formed reverting to Fibonacci extensions and previous highs assist in establishing, along with patience upon printing new candles which guide the next move. Gold and Silver ratio XAG - Silver - in silver line formation XAU - Gold - Gold/yellow line formation The weekly chart shows here the steady 'Need' for both metals. The ratio of gold and silver looks to measures the number of ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold. Whilst a measure which is not entirely causation upon large moves by Gold, it does provide investors hope to estimate the relative valuations between the two metals, informing to buy or sell at any given time. Monthly Ratio SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Refer to the DXY chart to follow the imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
SPX - holding shorts, assessing for the next moveHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis - below; This explains in detail what is key to fully understand the scenario Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. - Now a thing of the past - price began to show signs of selling directly where I expected. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Entry zone? Positions of where we will enter, based upon two scenarios. Starting upon a clean rejection from -0.618 Fibonacci extension. Why? Due to the highly probable imbalance which is forming upon the daily and three day charts respectively. Fell perfectly, review the four hour. Four Hour SPX VS VIX Refer to the weekly negatively correlated SPX and associated Volatility index. Vix Chart - please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
3
Cardano long position vs market dominance Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See dominance chart below Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation. The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin. Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% * based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat. Source: coinmarketcap.com Cardano Write up Monthly structure The market is presenting an interesting scenario; Whereby price has tested the 0.236% Fibonacci - and rejected. However, price can still revert to this level. I.// Where price retests, and rejects further - look to a buy probability with the imbalance closing out with the equal wick to the previous month, assessing the low reactive point. II.// If price indicates a reactive level break, add a net sell position to hedge long positions creating an absolute return positive. Weekly Weekly Impulse, correction, Impulse waves? Notice, that price has reverted back upon the first Fibonacci sequence wave from the established "0" to 0.705 upon the structure. Using the price wave theory as a basic concept - price has made the consolidation one since the initial tail off from the peak back in 2018. Price has provided a gearing process where the imbalance can be closed out in creating the next sequence high using imbalances, and Fibonacci targets for extension targets. The reversion pivot points are 61-70.5% creating the imbalance confirmation - where price will look to as a position of interest to change hands of sellers to buyers if required. Weekly Market capitalisation of Cardano The trendline is being respected, however also take into account the pathway in which the % of dominance for ADA shows an opportunity for longs as the overall picture is an uptrend swing based off previous % dominance. Refer to the chart below. Taking the theory and applying said wave; shows the possible predictive pathway - reason being, price has a volume increase, propelling a multitude of in-flow into the market capitalisation. looking to Marketcap: - we have seen that Cardano currently amounts to $77.3B in market cap, with a market share of 3.6% as of September 15th 2021. Updated to October, whereby the marketcap is now 2.86%, meaning that there is now a proportional move to the growth of the market capitalisation in general - meaning if, BTC dominance ideally flows back towards previous dominant percentages, . The target percentage of 60% for example will grow the price of BTC and the entire market cap, the relationship of inflows to ADA, ETH and other cois will all provide valuable growth too, as will a correlative price with it. Hence the bullish sentiment. and the model assumptions taken from the base case and conservative targets, overall - the buyers are ever present, looking at the current supply of 71% of tokens circulating, this enables us to understand where price will move in the future as the supply ever reaches full circulation. ** If you are interested in the model of the market cap - please send a message via Tradingview. The Daily correction, has provided a solid basis for additional opportunities. The pathway Whilst BTC and ETH have market dominance, note the importance of the price fluctuations upon these cryptocurrencies, whereby large imbalance moves positive and negative will have a correlative but not a causative response. The idea of having the imbalance at the previous is historical, based upon market structure and explained above. Using the market Capitalisation See the weekly chart below in reference to the following; BTC - White ETH - Purple ADA - Light Blue The correlation upon the three largest crypto's all have a relativity and looking over the charts all have similar imbalances , Bitcoin being the most dominant, offers the shift in change first, followed by a lag time for ETH and ADA as the chart shows. Though the products follow different develops within their own space, please note - from a technical aspect the chart still shows a strong factor for clear opportunities to buy, sell based upon price reactive levels - which correlate to the market Cap. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
BTC vs Bitcoin Dominance Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading An interesting note: Based on a modelling concept using a base case where the Cryptocurrency market reaches the size of the gold market and Bitcoin remains at around 50% Market dominance and or reaches 60%+ as the market has previous held % dominance of. The price of BTC can reach heights of according to the multiplication factor of the model. Note: Using at the time of model the gold market is 11.03Trillion. The Implied market cap of 6,781.80T at 60% gives an implied price per BTC at $360,734.04 per BTC. 50% Market dominance will provide an implied price per BTC at $300,611.70 per BTC. To know further about the model please message me in the comments or privately for further information. Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Bi-monthly Chart The weekly sell zone from $64K All time high (at current). The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone - refer to Weekly chart - Weekly Chart The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%. Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. The privatised tracking will be found at the bottom - to view click the link. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Weekly Bitcoin Market Cap Notice the equal lows which have formed the famous double bottom formation. The weekly trendline whilst steep has now seen a sell off, but now can establish a take back being the dominant coin. Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green Tracking the major coins as of 6th October 2021 BTC - 44.69% ETH - 18.51% BNB - 3.19% ADA - 3.11% USDT - 2.95* XRP - 2.22% * based on a fictional USD stable coin derived from Fiat. Source: coinmarketcap.com Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
GBP USD - October update - Heavy sells, but what next?Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis Chart pattern - Symmetrical triangle Monthly Imbalance Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. The structure Indicates all in a clear move. Profit zones in terms of adding the red dotted line, indicates where measured sells will be closed out. Two Day Volume profile Here lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. See further for an isolated chart Here is the latest trades taken. Using the hour timeframe s3.tradingview.com Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
10
US30 - Bank Holiday market open trade - recapHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Orange = Daily Grey = 1hour Purple = Profit zones Took a day trade, here is why: below is the flag pattern in which price will provide in terms of the structure in play - using the 1 hour time frame. 1 Hour Time Frame Reasoning; Bullish flag formation on the 1 hour chart. Within the structure is a correctional change of hands. This is the key are to wait for purchasing upon the low of the correctional move. This is now a technical counter move -if you as the trader sell. Structure applying looking left shows three strong bullish candles, now price will not exactly copy this, but the structure has indicated to complete the pattern, price will look to emulate this move again. 30minute time frame From the low of the correctional structure, looking left there is a consolidation zone which shows a clear view of what price is indicating to do. The low of the structure to the lower high formation, price is now gearing up as* review the eclipse where the candle sticks are showing a shorter candle body. * 5 minute chart Trade was overall long, due to market open, despite US and Canadian bank holiday. Break of the structure, retest and then confirmation engulfing candles pushed. The overall daily imbalance as yet to be tested* See below Daily chart representation Imbalance trading range zone of the current market. here is the overview of where price has potential to retest. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
ULong
by LupaCapital
GBP JPY - short due to higher timeframes confirming sellsHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, where the main trades are placed at 154.5X and 156X respectively and now 152.05 . Previous analysis: Private Analysis gave key criteria for the short. May 4th - Weekly chart The main plan here is execute upon the rejection of 0.382% Fibonacci as the daily chart shows a lower highs being created as well as within the weekly imbalance - equal lows, which is suggested a high probability with chart patterns this can now break? This will be a reactive trade, so trade according to your plan with defined risk management. The higher timeframe suggests a volatile re-bound swing after every selling day. So take this into account. Here is the current Weekly Scenario This takes into account the movements where buyers took control of the correctional See further for the before -0.618% Reversion price fractal found in the daily Imbalance. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities, to understand why this area is of interest, refer to the upload chart provided. Be aware any reactive level offers volatility and an opportunity to add buy orders, sell orders to generate hedged net positions. Daily Chart; Here is the wedge pattern in which in combination with the trendline remaining intact, The Fibonacci probability of the reactive zones have been consistent in shorting aspects The daily chart shows the lower highs and equal lows forming The 152.0 - 152.3 zone was perfect to short - where the 8 hour chart shows my thought process. 8Hour Chart Successful Retest of the zone - Four Hour chart today Clear move up to 152.00 - 152.3 as the traffic shows no strong move against the selling yet. Please await the next zone for making an opportunity. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. It looks like the Sterling pairs are correcting and correlating, meanwhile XAU is whipsawing upon the 1775-1800 mark. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. To see the inverse correlation (not causation) of two GBP pairs, both affected by the reactive levels taking place at the same time. Please note* trading opposite correlated pairs upon a imbalance level is highly not advised due to 100% loss taking trades in opposite directions when price reverts against you. The strategy should be implemented upon confirms. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Editors' picks
Short
by LupaCapital
9
BTC - Growing as Market dominance low equalledHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: I was incorrect in planning the imbalance to take us back to $20k or below, the reason for this is imbalances revert back to the original imbalance. With Crpyto's it seems the Golden ratio and a high probability to 0.786% Deep retracement zone. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances Here are the latest imbalances for Bitcoin, where the point of interest had offered a weekly candle close from the peak high of $64,823.XX to $51,997.XX. This is a huge imbalance where price has offered a large change of hands to a critical price inefficiency. Sellers are now in control and created a low with a heavy drop where the weekly shows the rapid selling. This is due to the buying imbalance now changing to provide efficiency based up on the pivot point. Bi-monthly Chart The weekly sell zone from $64K All time high (at current). The Fibonacci took us back to the weekly zone - refer to Weekly chart - Weekly Chart The Fibonacci successfully closes out with the -0.618%. Understanding the Market Capitalisation of the coins history. Here is the Bitcoin market imbalances cap - monthly chart Daily Market Cap with BTC price Notice the daily imbalance on the market cap and the price chart equate to the same position opportunity. BTC - candle sticks ETH - purple BNB - Rose pink XRP - Orange ADA - Green See what happened from our previous analysis - From the $50,000, a trade hedge has been place to capture selling opportunities as price offered a opportunity to short term sell, but long term holding target - subject to pivot points. Trade is now in full profit and if stopped out, no losses will be incurred Here is the Daily, since the previous analysis - please ensure you read to understand why this was taken. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital