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Imbalances

SPX - October updatePrevious analysis's October 1 - Sept 21 - pre-warning of the rising wedge Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Bearish Channel upon a diagonal forming? 8Hour time frame. Not looking trade this pattern as yet, due to the fact, the channel upon the higher time frames, looks to create a high probability of rejecting the 4400 mark and creating a further high. However, keep in mind this scenario will form an opportunity for short term traders. See below for the measured update to the 8-hour rising channel. You can look for a test, retest break sell - which is known as a The Daily chart shows us a steep wedge formation - just like the three day chart. Weekly Chart The Fibonacci from the swing low - to the top of the market, which created our new "0" as the new all time high part of the structure. The Continuation of the weekly imbalance had created a new area on the weekly, and bi-monthly timeframe - which offered a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, indicating that the buying imbalances are still present. . Now the -0.27, -0.618 extension targets are reached. The Wedge channel had begun and created a very strong channel with an effective structure of the sellers attempting to make an imbalance. The channel has now provided areas where price can pivot to. The monthly has a future strong imbalance formed. The three month indicates where price can be used for buying activity* So long as price reacts to the 61.8 & 70.5% levels. See the Pathway where price can take us, using the probability of a bearish imbalance formation. Chinese situation: A quick insight to how the Chinese market works The chinese property is leased for 70 years from the government who will be brought up by Real estate companies who will design and pre-sale units to investors, who will buy off plan using deposits. The cycle of funds will allow the developer to fund the next, complete or buy further leases for the next project, leaving a debt cycle Referring to China A50 USD - the FTSE China 50. Collapse of Evergrande Regulators have warned that its $305 billion of liabilities could spark broader risks to China's financial system if its debts are not stabilised. This will have ripple effects upon the US, Australian market relating to commodity imports from Australia with Copper, Iron has hit these commodities with creating imbalance sells upon the metals. China - will the CCP allow Evergrande to default? "Evergrande's woes also pressured the broader property sector, with Hong Kong-listed shares of small-sized Chinese developer Sinic Holdings (2103.HK) down 87%, wiping $1.5 billion off its market value before trading was suspended" Reuters. Whilst the Chinese real estate market has large multiple ratio where the Chinese seek the real estate to be a wealth inidcator. Despite the prices of price to income ratio as a whole in china the property price is 27.89x the avg income. Expressed as a mortgage % of income is 223% of monthly income. Source: www.numbeo.com What do you think about the current state? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by LupaCapital
USD CHF - Made a move from the Daily imbalanceThis is a late upload for public view - private trade released below for further info. Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Daily Chart The Daily is reacting to a highly pivotal level. Based on probability, the high chance of this rejecting is clear. Refer to the 8-hour chart to the rising wedge pattern formation which is key to understand where price will look to 'tail off' at the imbalance, where a change of hands will occur. The Weekly chart shows us two things to focus on here. Chart 1 - shows the clear lower lows being made since the high - April 2019. Since here, price has shown critical resistance low formations taken on 16th March 2020. Price then travelled and retested the latest imbalance - placed on a deep correctional swing at the 70.5% & 61.8% Fibonacci, but this confirms the imbalance zone. . The Failure to close above this zone - shows the next entry position as the swing high and swing low has completed the imbalance zones. Now using a sell approach risk probable scenario, the defined profit taking points are shown on the chart structure. Chart 2 - The chart here highlights a clear lower low formation where price reacts with a new imbalance - forming lower imbalances, as well as structure Fibonacci reactive zones, providing key probabilities to continue selling. The main draw here for the latest week close here though offers, the imbalance netting. Price here had closed out with buyers reaching the anticipated 'Range' high of the week, but in reality it is a Fibonacci reactive imbalance, emphasizing a further anticipated reactive sell. 4Hour chart provides clear entry positions Based upon the rejection of the daily, the imbalance has been tested, but to confirm a true sell using the rising wedge formation allows entry upon a pull-back to accumulate further orders and a break of structure re-active sell. This is denoted on the chart with the two positions in view. Following the SPX model as a basis for why USD CHF is creating further lows. DXY - Daily chart assists with further selling pressure. Note, this will be tested on a higher timeframe, with bullish structure. - Revert to the SPX analysis for further description. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
AUD CAD - Rejection upon the RetracementHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD CAD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price reacted to the level -0.786 Fibonacci Extension, which aligns from the 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly Imbalance The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.91 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price - objectively closing out the The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to buy. Weekly Pathway The weekly pathway offers a solid opportunity to buy from the imbalance - whereby price has corrected and now formed bullish candles justifying a break of structure. Do not rule out a retest of this zone, before entering a second position* The probability offers a strong area of a change of hands from buyers and sellers - hence why this is a reactive zone upon the completion of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci Pattern is completed on the daily Very simply taking the high to the low application of structure, price targets end up in a completion pattern which correlates to a weekly, monthly structure where price will pivot and create a "demand" or "supply" (however this case it is a buying demand). This is known as the true value of an imbalance where short sellers are now discounting the price to the reversion point for buyers to enter at a discount factor. Based on the high reversion probability - entering a buy based upon confirmation where imbalances "net off" the structure can offer applications of buying power. Refer to the Chart of USDCAD or AUD USD for references - both showing discount factors. USD CAD weekly chart AUD USD correction upon the weekly chart Current positions New position added on the Monthly zone touch and rejection. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
USD CAD - Consolidated long pathway Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please note: Data and charts have been removed - refer to the analysis above which shows further information relating to the analysis as a whole. Previous analysis's Monthly Imbalance Update: Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Update of the weekly chart Price will look to the 0.382 Fibonacci but due to be trading right now within the 0.236/0.382 zone, the trend is still bullish and strong, so ideally around 1.265-80 has a high pivot point - purely based on Daily timeframes. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. Possible pathway - showing a volatile scenario USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The breakout has now occurred and price is now retracing from the weekly zone on USD CAD - however, the pullback will become bullish again with the pathway showing a clear upside of USD strength and DXY room to grow. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - Here comes a transition of changeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis: Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Further Evidence Looking to the volume profile added to where lies behind the chart candles, the volume data, which points to a selling opportunity whereby the highest peak of volume looks to the reaction point upon the entry zone surrounding 1.394XX showing the reactive level at this level which equates to 50% Fibonacci Retracement. Shows the clear jostle at a daily imbalance level. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD See further for an isolated chart Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - Lots of room for buysHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour An update to the previous analysis - The criteria will be linked below; Original Jan 1st 2021 Please refer to the weekly and monthly for this analysis. See the latest analysis here; Monthly Chart Snippet - Clean view Weekly; Expect wicks at imbalances and allow reactive levels to confirm where price will take us. The Pound, Australian Dollar provides a great hedges for the long positions so remember to capitalise on them to protect capital or to simply create quick profits. Here is a probable scenario leading to the end of 2021 Volume Profile Analysis Note the key volumes of interest surrounding the key area of interest - relating to 1.82XX zone with 10.734M value area down as opposed to the 10.937M value area up. This critical area along with the above 11.554 X 11.887 has seen the incremental change shift from sellers to buyers. The reality is the volume is here assist with the opportunities. Refer back to the monthly chart to see where the imbalance dots connect and align with a bullish opportunity. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
USD JPY - Sell imbalance, before long term buying opportunities.Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis's Original - Updated - Firstly, if you have been following - the longs are still active - in the form of a forward contract, will be looking to open more FX positions as and when based on the analysis below. As analysed - the buying power imbalance was key to the buying positions upon multiple opportunities to add along the way. Monthly imbalances for USD JPY These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 100.00 to be a structural level for the USD. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 100-102. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a higher low, informing that the buyers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Since the previous analysis update - price has now reached the monthly zone between 109.6 - 111.8X which has is show below. From the analysis - a short opportunity is present, but overall the structure is bullish, so whilst this is a counter trade, please keep in mind the overall monthly indicates a long* - this is due to a correctional play which will have a probability of occurring. -Short, -before very long opportunity occurs. Bullish pattern outline Imbalance Netting* Where the buying power and selling power have now successfully netted to Zero, based upon a volume level of 50/50 tug of war. This can now shift the probability towards the transition of sellers, taken Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. Breakdown of Technical write up Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Daily Fibonacci The technical aspect here is price will need to engineer a long movement so when coming to a pivotal point on the Fibonacci extension target, price will react here, allowing discounted buy opportunities. However, price is within a trading range at this moment - this is a point of interest or (POI), where price has consolidated heaps Using the inverse Fibonacci based upon a channel formation for the short covering position, based upon a tapering scenario Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
7
Cardano - New Imbalances and targets [September]Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, this will be dragged by BTC and ETH correlative movements. Removal; Three day chart, Entry criteria scenario Model figures of Base, Conservative case for price targets Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly structure The market is presenting an interesting scenario; Whereby price has tested the 0.236% Fibonacci - and rejected. However, price can still revert to this level. I.// Where price retests, and rejects further - look to a buy probability with the imbalance closing out with the equal wick to the previous month, assessing the low reactive point. II.// If price indicates a reactive level break, add a net sell position to hedge long positions creating an absolute return positive. Weekly Weekly Impulse, correction, Impulse waves? Notice, that price has reverted back upon the first Fibonacci sequence wave from the established "0" to 0.705 upon the structure. Using the price wave theory as a basic concept - price has made the consolidation one since the initial tail off from the peak back in 2018. Price has provided a gearing process where the imbalance can be closed out in creating the next sequence high using imbalances, and Fibonacci targets for extension targets. The reversion pivot points are 61-70.5% creating the imbalance confirmation - where price will look to as a position of interest to change hands of sellers to buyers if required. Taking the theory and applying said wave; shows the possible predictive pathway - reason being, price has a volume increase, propelling a multitude of in-flow into the market capitalisation. looking to marketcap: - we have seen that Cardano currently amounts to $77.3B in market cap, with a market share of 3.6% as of Septmber 15th 2021. and the model assumptions taken from the base case and conservative targets, overall - the buyers are ever present, looking at the current supply of 71% of tokens circulating, this enables us to understand where price will move in the future as the supply ever reaches full circulation. ** If you are interested in the model of the market cap - please send a message via tradingview. The Daily correction, has provided a solid basis for additional opportunities. The pathway Whilst BTC and ETH have market dominance, note the importance of the price fluctuations upon these cryptocurrencies, whereby large imbalance moves positive and negative will have a correlative but not a causative response. The idea of having the imbalance at the previous is historical, based upon market structure and explained above. Using the market Capitalisation See the weekly chart below in reference to the following; BTC - White ETH - Purple ADA - Light Blue The correlation upon the three largest crypto's all have a relativity and looking over the charts all have similar imbalances , Bitcoin being the most dominant, offers the shift in change first, followed by a lag time for ETH and ADA as the chart shows. Though the products follow different develops within their own space, please note - from a technical aspect the chart still shows a strong factor for clear opportunities to buy, sell based upon price reactive levels - which correlate to the market Cap. Adding Volume profile with Market capitalisation of buyers, sellers distinguishing where the key volume areas are. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BINANCE:ADAUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
GBP JPY - Awaiting the critical selling pointHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note - the overall trend is bullish, where the main trades are placed at 154.5X and 156X respectively . Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour July Analysis; July 9th May 4th Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Previous analysis back in July - awaiting the next move to occur around 148.00 - 148.40 to £1.00 Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Price will look to revert back to the 61.8% Fibonacci at 154.3 or extend back to 70.5% at 154.7X Here is the current Weekly Scenario This takes into account the movements where buyers took control of the correctional See further for the before -0.618% Reversion price fractal found in the daily Imbalance. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities, to understand why this area is of interest, refer to the upload chart provided. Be aware any reactive level offers volatility and an opportunity to add buy orders, sell orders to generate hedged net positions. Below is a predictive pattern based on a line drawing, but is represented using the buying opportunity to the desired area of interest which lies ahead. - Hence, the forecast. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. It looks like the Sterling pairs are correcting and correlating, meanwhile XAU is whipsawing upon the 1775-1800 mark. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. To see the inverse correlation (not causation) of two GBP pairs, both affected by the reactive levels taking place at the same time. Please note* trading opposite correlated pairs upon a imbalance level is highly not advised due to 100% loss taking trades in opposite directions when price reverts against you. The strategy should be implemented upon confirms. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
11
AUD CAD - Long imbalancesHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD CAD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price reacted to the level -0.786 Fibonacci Extension, which aligns from the 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly Imbalance The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.91 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price - objectively closing out the The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to buy. Weekly Pathway The weekly pathway offers a solid opportunity to buy from the imbalance - whereby price has corrected and now formed bullish candles justifying a break of structure. Do not rule out a retest of this zone, before entering a second position* The probability offers a strong area of a change of hands from buyers and sellers - hence why this is a reactive zone upon the completion of the Fibonacci sequence. Fibonacci Pattern is completed on the daily Very simply taking the high to the low application of structure, price targets end up in a completion pattern which correlates to a weekly, monthly structure where price will pivot and create a "demand" or "supply" (however this case it is a buying demand). This is known as the true value of an imbalance where short sellers are now discounting the price to the reversion point for buyers to enter at a discount factor. Based on the high reversion probability - entering a buy based upon confirmation where imbalances "net off" the structure can offer applications of buying power. Refer to the Chart of USDCAD or AUD USD for references - both showing discount factors. USD CAD weekly chart AUD USD correction upon the weekly chart Volume indication Volume profile from the previous structure to the current structure Current position: View comments for updates, new additions Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
GBP AUD - New daily buys addedHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous Analysis's original Analysis below: How the trade is going since inception; Please note - three positions are held at any one time. Forward contracts, CFD and spot fx are used to mitigate risk and fee's. Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Volume profile Here is a weekly profile which shows the bullish nature outperforming the bears. Where the profile looks to the weekly the 1.82 had the reactive level which was of importance. Since then, has seen a stream of blue. meaning the bulls are in control. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Previous scenario since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
AUD USD - Imbalance, Channel combo - September 2021Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour, 16hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. 16 Hour visual the pattern has aligned with a lower high channel formation with price now experiencing a further sell upon the green zone. Price has begun to show pressure with the candle formations testing the zone of interest. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a full pattern completion to the -0.618% extension, now price is climbing towards the "0" Fibonacci. Short sellers, will be looking at 0.73$ as place to sell, Whilst I agree, probability of confirmation allows the full heavy sells to be added. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high, will be needed to be completed first. The fractal will show where price will potentially close within proximity of the imbalance to "close out" the fractal. Four Day Chart VIP SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. DXY Now Where the DXY is at current state of play; Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
8
USD CAD - 1.258 rejection as plannedHello, See below the previous analysis from a couple of days back; The key level here was 1.258X where the range of price will interact with the 0.382% Fibonacci, also a pivot point in the bullish structure; Where; 1. Price respects the imbalance upon the price reactive levels. 2. Price had offered a selling range from the reactive top of the structure and needed to find a key demand to offer a discount. Here is the idea. Weekly Chart Weekly Structure has offered a heavily discounted buy opportunity to take a new position or additional upon current longs. Refer to the volume chart to assist for volume traders - this shows the key driver for the change of hands which occurred at 1.21X zone. Monthly USOIL Refer to the correlation of the US OIL chart and compare USDCAD for inverse correlation. Attached are the key monthly and fibonacci zones intertwined. About me; Student of Lupacapitalpartners - imbalance analyst. Supplyanddemand trader Technical approach to charting Work in Investment banking, LDN - 3years in credit. Many thanks, XYHLX
Long
by XYHLX
ETH - Daily and weekly imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea May 25th 2021 Weekly Timeframe analysis Where do we go from here? Well price will now range within the grey box and offer an opportunity to break down to the daily imbalance, where price will look to test the 4 day imbalance of 0.382% Fibonacci. Price has a high probability to look to the testing of the weekly imbalance first and then look to short based upon the reactive weekly imbalance. The structure is still a buy and hold - but do your own due diligence based on your approach* Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high. (ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly. where; (i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it. (ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. Here are the weekly imbalances Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook . The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario. the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established. Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ] Chart ii The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances. Using the 16 hour timeframe: Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones. Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above. The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again . Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled. The Bears came The price fell to desired reaction level to test $1600-1750 level as expected this aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci structure and continue to offer discounts to buyers. Yet the 70.5% did not manage to adopt The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance. The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances: Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here. Eight hour candles pathway for a potential smaller time forecast Cross pair analysis Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin . Key: Bitcoin cash - Orange Litecoin - Sky blue Monero - Yellow Stellar Lumens - Purple. Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances. All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Target reached! Now what?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. The Answer is yes to continue to hold further Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
1
GBP USD - update from 18.08.2021Sellers took control of the market yesterday with an expected downside move, we are now experiencing a pull back on the four hour which; 1. looks to correct to 1.3718X in the Fibonacci structure, for further sells. 2. The monthly has been broken, but the close of the market needs to distinguish a clean break for confirmed further selling power down to the Fibonacci targets and imbalance targets respectively. To explain further - take the Fibonacci from the 1.43 to the low of 1.3574 gives the weekly Fibonacci. The daily comes from the sell zone in orange giving you the point 1 to point 0 of the low. We are now experiencing a pullback on the four hour/daily Fibonacci referring to "0" at 1.3718. Only looking for sells. Enjoy the trading. About me, Professional analyst at a hedge fund Technical approach only. Experience with FX markets and private equity deals. XYHLX
Short
by XYHLX
GBP USD - Sell active using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a technical breakdown analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to selling further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the huge sell off from the US Dollar back in March 2020 provided a key buying imbalance, this had affected the correlation between other pairs against the USD, for example - AUD,NZD,EUR, etc. the swing low formation hit 1.1394X with a sharp whipsaw effect on the monthly timeframe. (ii) the price reverted back to the original imbalance - to the zone including the psychological 1.40mark. These established zones are prominent on the chart for two key reasons; i. price always retests imbalances ii. where the monthly chart is showing pressure against the GBP creating a lower low pattern through the chart structure historically. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances have been established within the monthly zones - where the use of the Fibonacci pattern has completed. The selling position in play due to two criteria based upon the weekly see below images to support the probability of sells as the monthly imbalance is within a strong reactive level. Using the Fibonacci based upon the market structure - price has completed the 1.618 extension target or if using the inverse method -0.618 target. Once the established high is deemed, the weekly structure is formed from the far left - showing the weekly sell candle rejecting the imbalance top closing out the previous high of the structure. The reversion back into the monthly zone offers a sell position to be placed capturing the move. Price had retested this zone again failing to extend the buying imbalance to create a second block. Instead, the lower high suggests price will continue to falter. Hence a higher sell probability. Cross-Pair analysis See below for the cross asset-comparison between the following; EUR USD - Purple GBP USD - White USD CAD - Cyan AUD USD - Dark Blue The inverse correlation, not causation here shows the negative correlation as opposed to USD CAD. This stems back to the supply and demand factor from the relevant cross-pair analysis's where imbalances exist for each. . See the reference using the weekly chart against the EUR USD Four Hour Chart See the four hour below; The pivot points are exactly on the same timeframe, just the fractal differs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
XRP - New daily buying imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous idea here; Monthly Imbalances The three identified zones are in place to show where the major selling, buying positions are highly critical to imbalances, based upon the structure completing the pivot pattern and or Supply and demand scenarios. Within these structures, by now - it is important to identify knowing where in these reactive zones, buying is highly probable based upon the previous structure showing a rejection and or whipsaw effect on the monthly candle sticks. Zoom in to the weekly, daily on the previous structures to learn more where price has reacted and shown elements of the imbalance shifting from low probability scenarios to high probability. Weekly Imbalances Price had correctly rejected the 70.5% structure for a buying perspective which aligns with the in between of the selling targets of -0.27 and -0.618. The reason price didn't hit this zone as yet? The probability now looks low, but never exclude this as the price has previously fallen to $0.30-0.20 zone during the weekly and monthly imbalances. Price works best by reacting to strong levels so never overlook. Bullish weekly scenario - analysed April 26th - this has been a huge success! As mentioned above, the weekly imbalance held as the deciding factor with the market structures where the largest coins Bitcoin and Ethereum dominance accelerate the coins values to the upside along with the technical approach of buyers entering the market. Four Day Imbalances Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. The four day technical approach will be to first achieve $1.90 where the previous imbalance had created a highly probable sellers reactive zone. To extend the buying positional holds, this area would need to allow price to close within the imbalance and maintain a consolidation phase, which is a fractal pattern within the reactive zone. Daily The imbalance is clear where price can and has a highly probable likelihood of buyers looking to extend buys. This zone has offered an opportunity with a clear buying imbalance - however, this reactive zone will revert in the future if price fails to clear $1.90, meaning this will be where sellers will most likely initiate profit taking. Crypto correlation chart TRX USD - orange - - 96% correlation Dash USD - light blue - - 96% Sushi USD - Green - Sushi swap - 93% ETH USD - Purple - Ethereum - 81% Using the weekly chart - the highest correlated pairs with XRP have the main interest in purple; ETH, in terms of the dominance of the market cap and volume. The weekly correlation has seen all pairs to navigate smooth buying pressure towards the imbalances which lay waiting. Where a correctional move can take place, will be back to imbalances highly likely to be filled on the weekly and monthly timeframe, refer to ETH chart and analysis for further information. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - Hold shorts in AugustHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work June analysis: The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Yes it has and here is the proof, revert back to June 29th chart and hit replay. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
ETH USD - August UpdateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea May 25th 2021 Assessing ETH & BTC Dominance Below is the ETH vs BTC on the monthly chart. Applied imbalances on both charts side by side. ETH vs BTC Ethereum imbalances applied vs the monthly Bitcoin imbalances. Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high. (ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly. where; (i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it. (ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. Here are the weekly imbalances Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook . The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario. the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established. Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ] Chart ii The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances. Using the 16 hour timeframe: Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones. Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above. The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again . Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled. The Bears came and fell to desired reaction level to test $1600-1750 level as expected this aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci structure and continue to offer discounts to buyers. Yet the 70.5% did not manage to adopt The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance. The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances: Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here. Cross pair analysis Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin . Key: Bitcoin cash - Orange Litecoin - Sky blue Monero - Yellow Stellar Lumens - Purple. Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances. All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5