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Imbalances

GBP JPY - Bulls on paradeHello traders and analysts. Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily grey = 4hour pink = 1 hour See our update to the tracking of our position on GJ The original idea is here for 2021: Where are we and why are we there? Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 143 poised to be filled by the bulls. XAU USD & GBP JPY are safe havens so expect the volatility within the pairs to remain strong as short term sentiment turns sour. From a Fibonacci prospective: We took the low and plotted the high. We expected the previous wick to be filled as the order blocks in GJ are volatile so price and hit a fresh zone and reverse very quickly . The extension targets below signify our areas of longer term profit taking. While we did not add to the trade here, the opportunity here for buyers was a great opportunity as the 61.8% (golden ratio) hit. Here is our original take for our last entry: The overall bullishness from GBP is due to the JPY with an imbalance on the weekly (see the key) above where price is approaching a purple weekly zone between 147+. We are currently in a weekly zone between 143-145 whereby price has been creating a steep incline however has had healthy price engineering. The imbalances where price can retrace to is now to 137 (weekly) or monthly low 134-135. On a strong imbalance 150+ is the target. From a daily, 4 hour view. Bullish; Bearish This will be extended from the daily rising channel upon a break of 143.4 Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise and clears your mind. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
LINKUSD - Longs $26, $32Link/USD This cryptocurrency is now available in our public viewing. We have a great area of where price can reverse from. Based on what merit? From a lower time frame we would be looking at around 21.2 which aligns to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. Daily level buys - 19.77 or 20.8 where a daily imbalance is occurring. Master key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Regardless we will continue producing analysis as and when actions are needed Many thanks, Team LVPA.
COINBASE:LINKUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
Silver to consolidate - before a breakout to the upside.Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily Hello Traders and Analysts, Based on what merit? We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the zone of $29.00. Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of the reluctance for the demand of the Commodities. However, this produced a demand zone to hold from so we have a buying opportunity. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself now between $22-27 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. Looking for an entry? Based on the orange trading consolidation. Now we are in 2021, we can now look at buying opportunities. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Many thanks, Team LVPA.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
US OIL still risingHello Traders and Analysts, Based on what merit? We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. Looking for an entry? Based on the orange trendline - we would be looking to buy further at $48.00 where price may look to establish a lower high. If* this zone is broken, the correction will deepen with $46-48 looking to be a buying area. Here is our original take Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Many thanks, Team LVPA. Risk disclaimer: All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information offered by Lupa Capital is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. LCP LTD will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
S&P 500 - 2021 full analysisHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Based on what merit? Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure. Where price had a low of 2182, this significant point to me, showed the imbalance between the previous Fibonacci extension points 1.786, 1.618. This was essentially fulfilling the swing high and creating a swing low. Refer back to 2007-08 on the chart to see the imbalances - where; the blue Ellipse - shows the 2008 rally distribution beginning to take effect. The Red Ellipse - shows the pivotal 1.7186, 1.618 full retracement zones - where the "china trade war" and "coronavirus" fundamentals took place for the index to fall back in line. . Here is our representation of the SPX500 - using a daily chart - . Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est Why the previous Extension zones fell in line with inefficiency 1 . - we can see here that the price reversed directly between the previous extension zone to create a new inflow first touch to close out the imbalance between the buyers and sellers. Shorts were closed and further longs were taken to bolster investments or if investing in a long term portfolio, a further contribution added upon the compounding value. Four sectors returned a higher value than the S&P500 close in 2020 adding optimism within adding inflows into the market to 2021 - beyond. With all other major indexes and rapid new industries taking off - what we will be able to see? outperforming in 2020: Tech, consumer discretionary, telecommunications material sectors SPX500 & VIX The below chart shows the important of 28-18 being the volatility range we will be expecting throughout the fiscal year. maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11.01.2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. Pure imbalance trades - with further explanations on the graphs to understand. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis as and when. Many thanks, Team LVPA. Risk disclaimer: All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, or individual’s trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information offered by Lupa Capital is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. LCP LTD will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - inefficiencies 1,2The Aussie is gaining further traction - GBP has further downside positional power looking down to the below zones; 1. Zone 1: - we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. A large break of structure will occur - taking out the equal highs. These are our Points of interests. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie, affecting the GBP also which has also been seeing a volatile state - however Growing against JPY, USD, but against the CAD, AUD, NZD is now seeing large flows creating ranges to accumulate account growth depending on signs of movement. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners through to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. If you feel our work is exceptional and would like to donate coins, this is highly appreciated. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - rangingHello traders and analysts, Here is our quick take for GBP AUD - we have had some very good moves on this pair as of late with great opportunities to buy and sell in the same day. or following day. Overall - we are in a huge range. We will look for buys at the bottom zone and continue to scalp sells on the 4 hourly. as far as our bearish models looked to cover the longs - we lost out, but secretly we want this. The world needs to recover so happy to see bearish scenarios turn positive. You can't win them all in trading but we are happy to see scenarios partially played out and covered risk minimalization. This is the main part of our trading experience.
by LupaCapital
AUD USD - awaiting direction - bias still shortHello traders and analysts, So currently we are in a range - and we will need to be reactive here on the four hour time frame in order to see where price will show us, rejections for buys or sells. What can be shown technically? MA Longs Short Total Long Short Avg_13 27,228 56,775 84,003 33% 67% Avg_20 33,541 66,392 99,933 33.55% 66.45% Avg_50 38,626 77,956 116,582 33% 67% So why is price bullish? Great question - at this present moment the USD is still showing signs of weakness, which is a tactic by the US government to create benefits for imports and exports - Trump is all about business so the sentiment of an attraction to a weak dollar is pivotal. Technical set up: Green zone - Weekly imbalance zone Blue zone - we have a nice supply zone which will need retesting 4 hour Fibonacci retracement is showing signs of Bullish momentum to go for a retest of the 0.703 area wick. At the moment the COT data shows signs of weakness but profits are still being taken and extended. We have two possible sell zones shown of where price will react for our view. Also is a buy position if price shows bullish signs. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance for states.. cases growing. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in November. AUS - Victorian cases all time high, borders between states are looking to re-open with exclusion of NSW and VIC. AUS has seen large progress with stopping COVID and has a weak currency battered by the USD in order to create strong trade balance and tourism prospects. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
by LupaCapital
GBP USD update trade failed triple top?Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice wick rejection. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP AVG 13 31,932 47,607 79,538 41% 59% AVG 20 42,237 43,334 85,572 49% 51% AVG 130 43,170 69,339 112,509 41% 59% USD 20,233 10,666 30,899 65% 35% 20,926 11,028 31,954 65% 35% 34,840 17,550 52,390 67% 33% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out alot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
DXY strength - with the trendline intactHello traders and analysts, We have just purchased a position in our investment allocation to get some nice exposure to offset the portfolio. You can buy either on brokers the DXY or investment fund version, less leverage but safer protection for capital Note: price can break down to 95, but if this does - re-entry will be more prominent for longs Below is the COT data provided Avg_13 20,233 10,666 30,899 65% 35% Avg_20 20,926 11,028 31,954 65% 35% AVG 50 31,749 11,819 43,569 72% 29% Technicals: All time high S&P, NAS and US30 - looking to create double top V-shaped correction shows pure strength and no pullbacks retrace shows slow accumulation from 2011 - 2019 so alot of growth broke down. Fundamentals: USD stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Failure to lockdown the country and social distance. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. - pump and dump for stocks who claim to have breakthroughs. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. twitter hack will affect tech stocks and S&P for privacy laws. election taking place in november. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:DXYLong
by LupaCapital
1
Visa double top and beyond or sell?Hello traders and analysts, Here we have our first sharing of Visa (V) a stock we have held for a long time due to the constant growth and consistent dividend returns quarterly. Technicals - Purchased 2nd order batch during the break out of the monthly zone . - but the zone is a monthly zone so keep it technical this is important to show a good demand zone. Weekly levels - identified as potential supply zones but the monthly double top formation kept showing a strong bullish momentum. Weekly zones became new supplies in the swap zones. Notice the imbalance candles which are present inside these zones. Fundamentals: warning of economic downturn with spending cuts to households - with millions relying on stimulus paychecks - credit is still a valid use of fund transfers of course and will always be, however the slowdown will become clear. Price fared very strongly during the crisis of 2008, with a strong growth retained throughout the recessional period. However, be aware of consolidation between 2011 - 2015 - slow sustainable growth but not many down periods to provide demands. The recent 2018 - 2020 shows larger swings with multiple fundamentals in play. Always look left. The next option is to consider once in the supply zone all time high, what will price show us? A strong retest to produce and all time high or show a rejection upon the supply, we do not predict the future, but prepare for forward scenarios as price reacts. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
NYSE:VLong
by LupaCapital