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Yen slides as IMF cuts Japan’s growth estimateThe Japanese yen has posted sharp losses on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 152.67, up 1.06% at the time of writing. The yen is down 2.1% this week and has plunged 6.3% in October. The International Monetary Fund slashed its 2024 growth forecast for Japan to just 0.3%, down sharply from the 0.7% forecast in June. This is the lowest estimate since 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic which severely impacted the economy. The IMF highlighted the “fading of a one-off boost” in tourism and disruptions in auto supply chains. Japan’s economy grew 1.7% in 2023, aided by a strong increase in tourism. The IMF said it expects the economy to rebound in 2025 and expand 1.1% as private consumption and wage growth improve, assuming that the Bank of Japan continues to raise rates “toward a neutral setting of about 1.5%.” The BoJ raised interest rates out of negative territory in July to the current rate of 0.25%. The markets are expecting further hikes but the central bank has been very cautious and wants to see evidence of sustainable inflation at 2% before making additional hikes. This has made the BoJ an outlier among major central banks, most of which are in a rate-cutting cycle in response to falling inflation. Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator, on Thursday. The indicator is expected to ease to 1.7% in September, down from 2% in August. The BoJ meets on Oct. 30-31, right after a general election on Oct. 27. The Bank will likely maintain policy settings but the markets will be keeping a close eye on the quarterly projections for inflation and growth. USD/JPY has pushed above several resistance lines today and the next resistance line is 153.19 150.93 and 150.66 are providing support
by OANDA
Yen shrugs as inflation BoJ core CPI dipsThe Japanese yen has edged lower on Tuesday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.76, up 0.17% on the day at the time of writing. Is Japanese inflation falling? On Tuesday, two inflation indicators pointed to a deceleration in inflation in July. BoJ Core CPI, which is closely monitored by the Bank of Japan, dropped to 1.8%, down from 2.1% in June and its lowest level in three months. The Services Producer Price Index dropped to 2.8%, down from a revised 3.1% in June. Japan’s inflation has been moving higher, which has supported the case for another rate hike from the Bank of Japan. The central bank has projected that inflation will hover around its 2% target until 2027. Today’s inflation releases could be temporary blips but if the next inflation reports also indicate that inflation is heading lower, it could complicate the BoJ’s plans to gradually normalize its ultra-loose policy. The International Monetary Fund said on Friday that it supports the BoJ’s move to normalization and that the speed of further rate hikes will be ‘very data-dependent”, with a focus on inflation, wage growth and inflation expectations. We’ll get a look at Tokyo Core CPI on Friday, which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2%. The Jackson Hole Symposium was “mission accomplished” for the markets as Federal Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed was ready to cut rates. Powell didn’t specify the September meeting as the kickoff for rate cuts, but the markets are confident that the Fed will cut by a quarter-point at the Sept. 18 meeting. The US releases a key employment report on Sept. 6 and Goldman Sachs has said that if the jobs report is soft again then the Fed could respond with a 50-basis point cut, while a strong jobs release would support a 25-bps move. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 144.98. Above, there is resistance at 145.42 There is support at 144.21 and 143.77
by OANDA
The USD Strength vs the IMF's SDRThe USD Strength Indicator's relationship with the SDR basket is foundational to understanding global currency dynamics. Since the SDR comprises major currencies like the USD, Euro, Yuan, Yen, and Pound, the indicator's assessment of USD's performance against these currencies offers direct insights into its comparative value. This evaluation helps gauge the USD's global economic standing, influencing international finance, trade decisions, and the IMF's monetary strategies. It's a critical tool for analyzing shifts in currency power and their broader economic implications.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by CryptoPulseAnalyzer
GBP/USD drifting ahead of UK GDPThe British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%. The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July. The markets are expecting a rebound on Wednesday, with GDP projected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August. For the three months to August, GDP is expected to increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in the previous release. The IMF report on Tuesday didn't bring much cheer, with the report stating that the Bank of England would need to maintain elevated interest rates into 2024 due to weak growth and sticky inflation. The same day, the BoE's Financial Policy Committee also said that rates would have to "stay high for a long time", warning that would put pressure on households. The Federal Reserve has kept to a hawkish script, trying to convince the markets that the tightening cycle may not be over. That message has changed in recent days, as the Fed has become more dovish. The reason? US Treasury yields have been rising sharply, with 10-year yields hitting a 16-year high on Tuesday. The spike in yields has made borrowing costs more expensive and could act as a brake on the economy and push inflation lower without Fed intervention. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday that the Fed didn't need to raise rates anymore in order to push inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. Bostic is considered a dove, but he has support for this position. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both stated that the increase in Treasury yields could mean less need for the Fed to raise rates in the current tightening cycle. 1.2179 and 1.2097 are providing support 1.2321 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2403
by fisherkj4
Pound moves higher, BoE points to pressure on consumersThe British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%. The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing. The FPC noted that consumers were taking longer mortgages and increasing spending on credit cards in response to being squeezed by higher interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. These practices have raised concerns about consumer debt levels. The FPC found that the UK banking system was "relatively stable". The UK economy has been sputtering, and the IMF raised its 2023 growth forecast for the UK to 0.5%, up from 0.5% in the previous forecast. However, the IMF cut the 2024 growth forecast to 0.6%, down from 1.0% previously. The IMF noted that the BoE would need to maintain elevated interest rates into 2024 due to weak growth and sticky inflation. US yields have been rising, and that could affect Fed rate policy. On Monday, Fed members Jefferson and Logan said the spike in long-term bond rates could mean less of a need for the Fed to raise rates. The reason is that borrowing had become more expensive and inflation could ease without the Fed needing to raise rates. US 10-year yield rates rose as high as 4.8% last week, a 16-year high, compared to 4.0% in July. Higher yields on Treasuries have led to an increase in other borrowing costs, including mortgages and consumer loans. This could put the Fed's hopes for a soft landing in jeopardy and are providing support for the Fed to hold rates until next year. The odds of a rate hike before the end of 2023 have dropped to 24%, compared to 39% just one week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. 1.2179 and 1.2097 are providing support There is resistance at 1.2321 and 1.2403
by fisherkj4
GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflationGBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived. Headline CPI is expected to fall from 10.1% all the way to 8.3% y/y. That would be welcome news, but core CPI, which is a better gauge of inflation trends, is projected to remain unchanged at 6.2% y/y. Bank of England Governor Bailey reiterated today in testimony before the Treasury Select Committee that inflation has turned the corner, and we'll know if he's correct on Wednesday. Even if inflation surprises to the downside, it will be miles higher than the 2% target which Bailey has pledged to reach. That means that more rate hikes are likely until both headline and core inflation show rapid declines. Bailey received some good news from the International Monetary Fund, which revised upwards its growth forecast for 2023 from -0.3% to +0.4%. This means that the UK economy, while still struggling, will avoid a recession. The IMF projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as investors remain concerned about the US debt ceiling standoff. The Democrats and Republicans continue to negotiate, with a June 1st deadline just a week away. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury notes has risen to 3.75%, its highest level since March. This has given a boost to the US dollar and yields could continue to push higher the closer we get to the deadline without a deal. The United States government has never defaulted on its debt, and a deal is likely to be hammered out before the deadline. There is support at 1.2307 and 1.2221 1.2375 and 1.2461 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
EUR/USD slides to three-week lowThe US dollar is showing strong gains against the majors on Tuesday, with the exception of the Japanese yen. EUR/USD has tumbled by 1.27% and is trading at 1.0528 in Europe. EUR/USD is sharply lower today, despite a very light economic calendar. The only release of note is German CPI, which will be released later today. Despite the lack of fundamentals, the US dollar is taking advantage of risk aversion in the markets. There are headwinds everywhere you look. The war in Ukraine, the threat of recession in the US and the eurozone and China's slowdown all make for a gloomy outlook as we start the new year. Germany's inflation has been falling, and the downtrend is expected to continue. The consensus for December CPI is 9.0%, compared to 10.0% in November. If the consensus proves accurate, it could put further pressure on the euro, as the ECB may have to reconsider its hawkish stance on rate policy. The International Monetary Fund didn't bring any festive cheer with its pessimistic message on Monday. The IMF warned that 2023 would be tougher than 2022, as the US, EU and China would all see a decline in growth. Adding to the gloom, the IMF said that it expected one-third of the global economy to be in recession this year. In October, the IMF cut its growth outlook from 2.9% to 2.7%, due to the war in Ukraine as well as central banks around the world raising interest rates. After the Christmas and New Year's holidays, the markets are easing back in, as the data calendar gets busier as of Wednesday. We'll get a look at the Fed minutes from the December meeting, which was a hawkish affair that surprised investors and gave the US dollar a boost. On Friday, the US releases the employment report, which always plays an important factor in the Federal Reserve's rate policy. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0528. Below, there is support at 1.0469 There is resistance at 1.0566 and 1.0636
by OANDA
EUR/USD dips lower, German PMI improvesWelcome to the first trading day of the New Year. Trading remains thin, as most markets are closed.  In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0679, down 0.23%. I expect a quiet day for the euro. There are no US events on the schedule. German Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.1 in December, up from 46.2 in November and shy of the consensus of 47.4 points. Manufacturing remains below the 50.0 level that separates contraction from expansion, and expectations remain pessimistic. The silver lining to a gloomy situation is that the outlook has improved slightly, as the December release was the strongest in three months. It was a similar pattern in the eurozone, as the Manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8, up from 47.1 in November, also a three-month high. Manufacturing in Germany and the eurozone has suffered a tough year, and demand remains weak. The global outlook remains uncertain and with the ECB promising further rate hikes, the risk-to-demand outlook is tilted to the downside. Still, December showed an improvement, as concerns over an energy crisis have lessened and inflation has eased. We'll get a look at key inflation releases this week. German publishes December CPI on Tuesday, followed by eurozone CPI on Friday. Both indicators are pointing to inflation heading lower, which could have an impact on ECB rate policy. The ECB raised rates by 50-bp in December and meets next on February 2nd. If anyone needed a sober forecast for 2023, there was one today from the International Monetary Fund. The head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, warned that 2023 would be tougher than last year, as the US, EU and China would see growth slow. Georgieva said that she expected one-third of the global economy to be in recession. In October, the IMF cut its growth outlook from 2.9% to 2.7%, due to the war in Ukraine as well as central banks around the world raising interest rates. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0674. Below, there is support at 1.0566 There is resistance at 1.0782 and 1.0852
by OANDA
GBP/USD slides as turmoil continuesThe roller-coaster continues for the British pound, which is down sharply today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.0774, down 1.05%. It has been a remarkable week for the British pound, which has exhibited sharp volatility since Friday, when Chancellor Kwarteng unveiled his mini-budget. The package included unfunded tax cuts, despite weak a weak economy and inflation hovering at 9.9%. The financial package was criticised at home as well as abroad; the International Monetary Fund and US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo also panned the plan. Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers had perhaps the most unkind cut of all, saying that the UK had the worst economic policy of any major country. The British pound fell 3.6% on Friday and kept falling on Monday, hitting a record low of 1.0359. Bond prices tumbled and the turmoil became so acute that the Bank of England intervened on Wednesday in order to avoid a possible crash in the bond market. The BoE said that the crisis threatened financial stability and purchased just over one billion pounds in securities and will continue purchasing securities every day until October 14th. The bailout could hit over 60 billion pounds. The BoE's announcement sent bond prices higher and stabilized the bond market. The pound shot up 1.45% on Wednesday, but has reversed directions and is down sharply today. Prime Minister Truss is under heavy pressure to shelve the financial plan which has caused chaos in the markets, but for now, the government is standing firm and says it won't back down. Truss and Kwarteng will have to face the music at the Conservative Party's annual conference next week, and it's likely we haven't heard the last word on the mini-budget which has triggered a major financial crisis. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.0782. Next, there is support at 1.0644 There is resistance at 1.1052 and 1.1184
by OANDA
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market. Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed. Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023. With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890. There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75. Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717. The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Equities give back gains - ProfZero not falling for bull trap 🐻INVESTMENT CONTEXT Equity markets took a breather on May 23, as operators reacted positively to U.S. President Biden commitment to review Trump-era tariffs imposed on China Accumulated gains are now being quickly given back, as futures on May 24 point to red territory for both S&P 500 and Nasdaq (dropping 1.21% and 1.88%, respectively). Snapchat (SNAP) in particular cratered 30% in the after-market on anticipated top- and bottom-line miss, dragging Pinterest (PINS) and Meta Companies (FB) 12% and 7%, respectively. Zoom (ZM) instead popped 16% over-the-counter on sales forecast beat An initial remark by President Biden that that U.S. military will intervene to defend Taiwan should the island be attacked was later walked away by White House officials International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva hinted at further cuts for this year's global economic growth PROFZERO'S TAKE The ongoing market jitters must be nerve-wrecking for the cohort of retail traders that entered the market during pandemic times. A sustained period of tech-fueled growth has quickly reversed, with Nasdaq plunging into bear market (year-to-date performance down 27%) and S&P 500 teetering on the brink of one (negative 17% since the peak in November 2021). Pandemic-era dears Pinterest (PINS), Snapchat (SNAP), Twitter (TWTR) are now down at least 50% from their peaks; blockchain assets trade even deeper in the red. Is this the end of Growth? To ProfZero, that amounts to as much as asking - are we really building the next decade on coal, legacy banking and neo-protectionism? Clocks tick on, not back Speaking of innovation, Samsung (ticker: 005930) is investing USD 356bn over the next 5 years in semiconductors, biopharmaceuticals and next-generation technologies to drive "long-term growth". Curiously enough, neither coal nor plastics appear on the plan IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva's admission that a global recession is not in the cards, but shouldn't be ruled out altogether, resonates with JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon seeing "big storm clouds" on the horizon, just but darkening a currently strong economy. ProfZero already underscored the resilience of Main Street in Q1; however, trading is all about the future, and ProfZero still fails to see a sufficiently credible deterrent to avert a recession. A ceasefire in Ukraine, and normalization in energy markets would be a fair start "Frailty, thy name is... BTC". ProfZero keeps it cool on blockchain - not paying the bears' lunch
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
True Dollar Index - Adj. for IMF Currency Reserve Weight (2022)As there appears to be much discourse around the status of the dollar as "the world reserve currency", it seems interesting to me that the standard measure of the dollar's strength is not weighted in this way. Here I am attempting to reconcile the standard dollar index (DXY), which measures the strength of the USD against a basket of other currencies (see below), with the dollar's presence within the IMF's World Currency Reserves (see below). I have chosen to call this the "True Dollar Index" (TDI) To do so, I have first taken the ratio of the Dollar's IMF weight against each currency and multiplied it by the dollar denominated exchange rate. Then I attempt to normalize the value by dividing it by the average of the 9 dollar denominated exchange rates. The equation I used for the 2022 TDI is as follows(*): (USDEUR * (58.81/20.64) + USDJPY * (58.81/5.57) + USDGBP * (58.81/4.78) + USDCNH * (58.81/2.79) + USDCAD * (58.81/2.38) + USDAUD * (58.81/1.81) + USDCHF * (58.81/0.2) + USDSGD * (58.81/1.505) + USDHKD * (58.81/1.505)) / ((USDEUR + USDJPY + USDGBP + USDCNH + USDCAD + USDAUD + USDCHF + USDSGD + USDHKD)/9) (*) This is in standard TradingView equation format and can be directly copy/pasted into the search bar - though values will convert to decimal As the weighting of the IMF World Currency Reserves is shuffled and reported at the end of the year, this should only be taken to be valid as of Q1 2022. For comparison, I have included the DXY in Orange. Note that I have adjusted the DXY by 41.0351, this is the difference in their starting values on Dec 31, 2021. This should allow us to capture deviation from this starting point. I chose this action as opposed to adjusting the existing equation to for simplicity, though one could easily drag the TDI down by subtracting the same amount. I make no claims to the accuracy of this chart as a measure of the strength of the dollar. I am not an economist, and I am happy to hear suggestions on how to improve this model. DXY Geometric Weightings: Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight Japanese yen (JPY) 13.6% weight Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight Currency composition of official IMF foreign exchange reserves: Dollar (USD), 58.81% Euro (EUR), 20.64% Japanese yen (JPY), 5.57% Pound sterling (GBP),4.78% Chinese renminbi, 2.79% Canadian dollar (CAD), 2.38% Australian dollar (AUD), 1.81% Swiss franc (CHF), .2% Other, 3.01%* *To account for this ambiguity, I have opted for a 50/50 split of the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) and the Singapore Dollar (SGD). These are roughly equal in their use as a global payment currency at the time of writing and are the only top payment currencies not already included in the weighting. Sources: en.wikipedia.org data.imf.org
by mdamante
1
Uncertainty Grips Markets as Optimism WanesMarket sentiment has deteriorated since earlier this year amid still elevated financial vulnerabilities and mounting concerns about risks to inflation. Amid the prolonged and painful pandemic, risks to global financial stability have remained contained—so far. But with economic optimism fading, and with financial vulnerabilities intensifying, this is a time for careful policy calibration. To an unprecedented degree, the world’s central banks, finance ministries, and international financial institutions have asserted—for a year and a half—policy support for economic growth. Now they must craft strategies that safely approach the next stage of monetary and fiscal policy action. The sense of optimism that had propelled markets in the first half of the year is at risk of fading. The world’s systemically important central banks know that any unintended consequences of their actions could put growth at risk—and could, conceivably, lead to abrupt adjustments in the world’s financial markets. Uncertainty is especially intense because of the persistent pandemic-stricken atmosphere where society confronts the challenges inherent in “the three Cs”: COVID-19, crypto, and climate change, as discussed in our latest Global Financial Stability Report. Fading optimism Massive monetary and fiscal policy support for the economy in 2020 and 2021 helped limit the economic contraction that began at the start of the pandemic and that—for much of this year—supported a strong economic rebound. In many advanced economies, financial conditions have eased since the initial months of the pandemic. Nonetheless, the sense of optimism that had propelled markets in the first half of the year is at risk of fading. Investors have become increasingly worried about the economic outlook, amid ever-greater uncertainty about the strength of the recovery. Uneven vaccine access, along with the mutations of the COVID-19 virus, have led to a resurgence of infections—fueling concerns about more divergent economic prospects across countries. Inflation readings have been above expectations in many countries. And new uncertainties in some major economies have put markets on alert. Those uncertainties are triggered by financial vulnerabilities that could increase downside risks, surging commodity prices, and policy uncertainty. The deterioration in market sentiment since the April 2021 Global Financial Stability Report resulted in a significant decline in global long-term nominal yields in the summer, driven by falling real rates, reflecting concerns about long-term-growth prospects. In late September, however, investor anxiety about inflationary pressures pushed yields higher as price pressures then started to be seen as potentially more persistent than initially anticipated in some countries—entirely reversing the earlier declines. If investors, at some point, reassess abruptly the economic and policy outlook, financial markets could endure a sudden repricing of risk—and that repricing, if sustained, could interact with underlying vulnerabilities, leading to a tightening of financial conditions. This could put economic growth at risk. Risks also bear close monitoring in other key areas. Crypto asset markets are growing rapidly and crypto asset prices remain highly volatile. Financial stability risks are not yet systemic in the crypto ecosystem, but risks should be closely monitored, given the global monetary implications and the inadequate operational and regulatory frameworks in most jurisdictions—especially in emerging market and developing economies. Likewise, as the world continues to seek ways to speed up the transition to a low-greenhouse-gas economy in order to avoid the negative economic and financial stability outcomes associated with climate change, a promising opportunity is emerging in the financial sector. While assets under management in climate-themed investment funds remain relatively small, inflows have surged, and there is a promise of cheaper funding costs for climate-friendly firms, as well as greater climate stewardship by funds. A not-so-easy trade-off Amid still easy financial conditions overall, our analysis finds that financial vulnerabilities continue to be elevated in several sectors—but are masked, in part, by the massive policy stimulus. Policymakers are now confronted with a challenging trade-off: They must continue to provide near-term support to the global economy, even as they must simultaneously try to avoid the buildup of medium-term financial-stability risks. Managing this trade-off is a key challenge confronting policymakers. A prolonged period of extremely easy financial conditions during the pandemic—which certainly has been needed to sustain the economic recovery—has allowed overly stretched asset valuations to persist. If that overstretch continues, it may, in turn, intensify financial vulnerabilities. Some warning signs—for example, increased financial risk-taking, as well as rising fragilities in the nonbank financial institutions sector—point to a deterioration in the underlying foundations of financial stability. If left unchecked, such vulnerabilities may persist into the longer term and become structural issues. Policy action Policymakers will need action plans that guard against unintended consequences. Monetary and fiscal policy support should be more targeted and tailored to country-specific circumstances, given the varying pace of the recovery across countries. Central banks will need to provide clear guidance about their future approach to monetary policy, aiming to avoid an unwarranted or abrupt tightening of financial conditions. Monetary authorities should remain vigilant, and if price pressures turn out to be more persistent than anticipated, act decisively to avoid an unmooring of inflation expectations. Fiscal support can appropriately shift toward more targeted measures and be tailored to country-specific characteristics. Policymakers should take early action and tighten selected macroprudential tools to target pockets of elevated vulnerabilities. This is critical for addressing the potential unintended consequences of their unprecedented measures, given the possible need for prolonged policy support to ensure a sustainable recovery. Policymakers in emerging and frontier markets should, where possible, begin to rebuild fiscal buffers and implement structural reforms. While facing several domestic challenges (higher inflation and fiscal concerns), some of those economies remain exposed to the risk of a sudden tightening in external financial conditions. In a context of higher price pressures, investors are now pricing in a rapid and fairly sharp tightening cycle for many emerging markets, although the increase in inflation is expected to be temporary. Rebuilding buffers and implementing enduring reforms to boost economic growth prospects will be pivotal to protect against the risk of capital-flow reversals and an abrupt increase in financing costs. IMF - blogs.imf.org
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
4
XRP RSI divergent flag theory; forecast 23rd IMF's new SDRsSeeing a pattern of RSI and fractal: bias enforced by time decay of 23rd imf announcement of SDRs (twitter.com) Looking forward to this rumor: www.youtube.com ^Very funny clip of current red herring perception. Trading Disclaimer: All trades and ideas posted from this account, including setups, are given for educational purposes only. 95% of trades never win, and instead realize losses. Trading involves risk, there are zero guarantees that you will win any given trade, including this one or others related to it or this account. If you follow any setups, you do so at your own risk, taking full responsibility of any actions and / or outcomes. Nothing posted is to be taken as financial advice. The information and opinions presented by this account should not be construed as investment or trading advice, and is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to take actionable trading on any asset, cryptocurrency, securities, or any other tradable digital asset. All content presented is for entertainment and education. No Financial Advice. Past performances are not a guarantee of future outcomes and or results: trading involves strategizing probabilities, there are no expectations on any given trade. Always do your own research and consult a team of professionals from finance and law before proceeding with any type of action in personal finance. All information provided by this account is a general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice or financial advice. None of the information communicated in this accounts tradingview publishings are financial advice and/or incentives, solicitng, advertising, manipulation tactics, and any other malicious behaviour - no, solely for entertainment purposes ONLY.
by The_Clown_of_Smyrna
S&P 500 U Shape Recovery 2020-2022The impossible "V-shaped" The year 2020, a bad memory quickly forgotten? No, warn more and more economists, alarmed by the violence of the shock in the first half. They expect a slow recovery, provided that a second wave of the new coronavirus does not strike. The IMF has also made it clear that, despite the expected rebound, world GDP in 2021 would come out cut by 6.5% compared to what was expected before the pandemic. Some sectors are affected for a long time, especially in services. Perfect example: tourism and travel. No catching up possible for empty rooms, meals never served, planes nailed to the ground. Did IATA, the international air transport association, not warn that it did not expect to return to normal before ... 2023? In industry, factories face many health restrictions. Farmers all over the world are struggling due to the lack of foreign workers. Exit therefore, the "V" scenario that some people were still hoping for in February. Rather, it is a "U-shaped" scenario that emerges at best, with several months of recession before the economy recovers. See a "W" with alternating rebounds and relapses. Or, worse yet, an "L" with depressed activity for a very long time.
SP:SPXShort
by Nugacity_Fracedinous
Potential growth of USDTRY as waging war agains Syria1. Wait for breaking parallel channel or resistance line then take long 2. Wait till lower band of parallel channel and then take long Turkey officially declare war against Syria. it could bring chaos to middle east. Russia also is defending Syria. Turkey threatened NATO to support otherwise it would open its borders and free Syrian refugee to flee to EU countries.Turkey did it and refugees had faced a very bad conflict with police of Bulgaria and Greece (EU Gate). Turkey is drowning as more than 45% of GDP made by external loan from international institution like IMF as an example. How could a country be independent while it has 433 Billion USD external load more than 45% of GDP!? President of Turkey Erdugan said we would not get any dollar from IMF as it would violate our foreign independence. After some months it appears Erdugan could not resist foreign pressure and wage war. If both sides of conflict could not reach an agreement that would be death and destruction. Erdugan could not rescue Turkey economy by doing this and corona virus could damage tourism earning so much so bye bye Lira! bye bye foreign real estate investors! USA will use Turkey like a tissue and then throw it away. History will repeat itself.
Long
by amirameri89
1
Brexit & pound, IMF forecasts and Bank of Japan plansThe pound is a focus of attention of the forex market. Because Brexit is entering final straight. Yesterday the European Commission's chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that Brexit deal within reach in last-ditch talks, but doubts remain. And then there was information that the legally agreed text will be presented to the delegations of the EU and the UK no later than Wednesday morning. On the whole, we cannot but note the positive attitude of the parties, which only strengthens us in the desire to buy the pound. Recall, there is a potential pound value growth. UK labour market data released yesterday (came out pretty weak), once again showed that Brexit is only the pound traders are interested in. So we continue to pay attention to this issue. We still have time for pound purchases at affordable prices, but it is running out. IMF cuts global growth forecast. In 2019, global GDP growth is expected to reach 3% (this is 0.3% lower than the previous IMF forecast), and in 2020 the growth rate will be 3.4% (0.2% lower than the previous forecast). We note that the rate of economic growth in 2019 has been revised to the worst one since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The IMF noted that the damage from trade wars is equal to the Swiss economy. In general, that is bad news for commodity and stock markets, as well as currencies such as the Canadian and Australian dollars. But good for safe-haven assets buyers. The US decided to hint to Turkey that a ground invasion against Kurdish people might not be the best idea. We are talking about US sanctions against Turkey, announced by Trump, as well as Volkswagen's decision to suspend the construction of an automobile plant in Turkey (price tag $ 1.4 billion). While no reaction from the financial markets to this has followed, we decided to leave our recommendations for the purchase of safe-haven assets (gold and the Japanese yen). So today we will continue to look for intraday long positions to open. Information that the Bank of Japan is preparing to reduce the volume of investments in bonds. The event is nontrivial. 10 years ago the Central Bank did that. We interpret this signal as monetary tightening. The yield increase in the Japanese bond market may well trigger a strengthening of the yen. In this light, our recommendation to buy the yen seems reasonable. Leading global analysts predict target 100 for the USD JPY.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Gold & Oil Slide on Earnings & IMF ReportsIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #XAUUSD and #WTI Oil! Gold Lower on: - Brexit optimism despite running out of time - Banks reporting good Q3 results, and equities rising - US-Sino on a stalemate, allowing new-coming flows to take over Crude Oil Lower on: - IMF downgrading growth again, again - Dismissed excitement surrounding limited trade deal - Increasing demand for Natural Gas Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Orbex
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here. 1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change. 2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change 3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months. PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.
Long
by Trader6127
6
Trump vs Fed, trade negotiations and recession risksTrump continues the crusade against the Fed. He is absolutely not satisfied with the current monetary policy of the Central Bank of the USA, and he keeps reminding in his twitter. He accused the Fed that the Central Bank slowed the growth of the US economy on Sunday, also impedes the growth of the US stock market. Recall, the Fed is an independent body and has the right not to coordinate monetary policy and its actions with the US President. Such a position does not “play into the hands” of the dollar. So, our position in the foreign exchange market remains unchanged: we are looking for points for selling the dollar. Meanwhile, the United States launched negotiations on trade wars on all fronts, literally. Recently the main attention was focused on China, now negotiations are simultaneously being held with the EU and Japan. In general, it is a positive signal for the global economy and risky assets. Another signal was the meeting of IMF representatives and the World Bank. Despite the fact that the IMF has already lowered forecasts for economic growth rates three times in a row, representatives of the IMF and the World Bank agreed that the risk of recession remains very low. So, the current decline in gold and the growth of USDJPY is explicable. Nevertheless, there is no material evidence of actual progress in the negotiations, with the exception of individual comments. Therefore, we continue to look for points to buy gold on the intraday basis. We are buying USDDJPY, which acts as a hedge. As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying). We are buying gold and oil in the commodity markets. In addition, we continue to sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx