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How to Make Money in the Stock Market and Keep ItI have always said that making money in the stock market is easy. It is learning how not to lose money that is the hard part of trading. To that end, when you find yourself in the surprising and often disturbing position of having made a whole lot of profit, or more profit than you expected in a very short time, you may be feeling overwhelmed. This is when you need to remember some basics about the art of trading. The primary factor in making money and keeping it depends upon your ability to stop trading to get your emotions under control again. Stop trading for at least a few days to a week. This sounds ludicrous, but my experience with teaching traders for more than 20 years is that those who follow this rule keep their big gains while those who do not, lose them back to the market and then some. The reason behind this is emotion. You are in a state of emotional flux, not thinking logically. You are thinking, “I’m brilliant, I’m invincible, I am going to be rich!” Well, sure, but not at this moment. At this moment, you are overly exuberant, you are thinking you can do no wrong, so you are likely to miss the parts of your analysis that would keep you out of high-risk setups. So, take a few days to cool off. The Stock Market is not going anywhere. Great trades present themselves over and over again. While you are recovering from the shock of a large gain, these steps can help bring you back down to Earth : Review your notes from some of the courses you have taken. Reading back over rules and the reasons behind them for making sounding trading decisions helps a lot to keep you grounded. Review your trading plan and your goals. If you don't have this written out somewhere, do it now. Most people refuse to write down their goals because of “fear of failure.” They are so afraid that they are not capable of reaching those goals that they do not try. Try to write down realistic goals, and adjust them as you see the need. We have a calculator that we provide to our students for help with this. Once you do the task of setting goals, you will find that they are achieved much of the time. Consider if you need to increase your goals. Continually pushing yourself to reach higher and higher levels of efficiency and profit helps to both dispel the fear of failure and propel you forward with perhaps stricter rules to achieve those higher goals. Trading is 50% skill which, in short, includes understanding your Trading Style and using proper Strategies for the current Market Condition. The other 50% is controlling emotion, which includes setting goals, keeping calm and centered, using discipline in your trading rules, having the determination to keep working until you are successful, maintaining your personal parameters while expanding them, and using logic rather than emotion. These are the major components of making money and keeping it.
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
1
🔜RULE FOLLOWING CHALLENGE, join to improve your trading 💪Did you know that most beginner traders can't follow their rules for 7 days in a row? Unfortunately, they start overtrading or changing the rules of the system, entering random trades, overrisk, etc. I've been there many many times myself, but then slowly started focusing on this part and made my first 7, then 10 days of rules following, broke with another tilt, started again, reached 17, 30 days, and failed again. Each time it became better and better, and now I'm on my way to 50 days of rule-following. I developed a routine and system that allows me to keep doing it, day after day. It includes mental technics, as well as simple EAs for Metatrader to help with over-risking and overtrading issues. If you want to step out of your comfort zone and improve your trading, join this 7-day rule-following challenge by leaving a comment below. It will be hosted here on TradingView, probably using the Stream feature, but I'll let you know later when we will gather up.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Yelli_trades
3
Unlocking Opportunities: Maximizing Dec. Gains Beyond TradingUnlocking Opportunities: Maximizing December Gains Beyond Trading Introduction: As December unfolds and the year draws to a close, it's not uncommon for traders to take a step back and assess their performance. The trading landscape experiences a shift, with many prominent investors winding down for the year, paving the way for unique opportunities for those who approach the market strategically. In this blog post, we'll explore how traders can benefit from the distinctive conditions of December, leveraging the year-end dynamics to refine their trading strategies and set the stage for success in the upcoming year. 1. Reflect on the Year: Before diving into the specific opportunities December presents, take a moment to reflect on your trading journey throughout the year. Consider the overall performance of your trades, taking note of both successes and setbacks. This reflection is a crucial first step in understanding your strengths and weaknesses as a trader. Take a comprehensive look at your trading performance throughout the year. Consider the following aspects: Trade Outcomes: Evaluate the overall success of your trades. Identify the ones that were profitable and those that resulted in losses. Market Conditions: Examine how your strategies performed under various market conditions. Note any patterns in your trading success or challenges during specific market trends. As an example; I examine my trading performance throughout the year. I did observe that my swing trading strategy worked well during trending markets but struggled during choppy, sideways conditions. This reflection prompts me to consider adjustments to my strategy to better navigate varying market conditions. 2. Evaluate Pros and Cons: Identify the pros and cons of your trading strategies over the past year. What worked well for you, and what didn't? Analyzing these aspects can help you fine-tune your approach, building on your strengths and addressing any weaknesses. Take note of the market conditions under which your strategies excelled or faltered. Dig deeper into the strengths and weaknesses of your trading strategies: Successful Strategies: Identify the aspects of your trading approach that worked well. This could include specific indicators, timeframes, or types of assets that consistently yielded positive results. Challenges Faced: Analyze the reasons behind unsuccessful trades. Pinpoint any recurring issues, whether they are related to strategy execution, risk management, or market analysis. Adaptability: Ask yourself, "Is your strategy working for you?" If there's discomfort or a sense that your current strategy is not aligning with your trading goals, consider your options: - Explore New Strategies: Are you considering a shift in strategy? Perhaps there's a new approach or methodology that better suits your risk tolerance and market outlook. - Give More Time: Alternatively, are you planning to invest more time in your existing strategy? Sometimes, patience and fine-tuning can enhance the effectiveness of a proven approach. As an Example; I identified that my strengths lie in thorough technical analysis but acknowledges a weakness in managing emotions during periods of heightened volatility. I realized that implementing stricter risk management protocols could help mitigate losses during turbulent market phases. 3. Journal Your Trades: If you haven't already, start journaling your trades. Documenting your trading activities provides valuable insights into your decision-making process. Review your trades and identify patterns, both in successful and unsuccessful scenarios. What emotions were at play during specific trades? This self-awareness can be a powerful tool for refining your trading psychology. Initiate or revisit your trading journal, documenting each trade along with additional details: Decision-Making Process: Record the factors influencing your decisions for each trade. This includes technical and fundamental analysis, as well as any emotional factors that may have played a role. Emotional Reflection: Explore the emotional aspect of your trading. Note instances of fear, greed, or overconfidence. Understanding your emotional responses can help you make more informed decisions in the future. As an Example; I started a detailed trading journal, recording the rationale behind each trade and the emotions I’d experienced. Upon review, I noticed that I tend to become overly cautious during winning streaks, leading me to exit profitable trades prematurely. This awareness prompts me to work on maintaining discipline during profitable runs. 4. Statistical Analysis: Dig deeper into the statistics of your trades. Examine metrics such as win-loss ratio, average gain/loss, and drawdowns. These quantitative measures can offer a more objective view of your performance, helping you identify areas for improvement. Look for patterns in your trading data and consider how adjustments to your strategy might enhance overall profitability. Delve into the quantitative aspects of your trading performance: Win-Loss Ratio: Calculate the ratio of your winning trades to losing trades. A higher ratio indicates more successful trades. Average Gain/Loss: Evaluate the average profit and loss per trade. This metric helps you gauge the effectiveness of your profit-taking and stop-loss strategies. Drawdowns: Identify periods of significant drawdown. Understanding these downturns is crucial for risk management and improving overall stability. As an Example; I analyze my trading statistics and discovered that while my win rate is respectable, I experience larger drawdowns than what is comfortable for me. I decided to adjust my position sizing to limit the impact of losing streaks on my overall portfolio. 5. Spend Time in Backtesting: Utilize the quieter period of December to engage in thorough backtesting: Strategy Validation: Test your strategies against historical data to validate their efficacy. Identify any potential adjustments needed to align with current market conditions. As an Example; Taking advantage of the quieter December market, I dedicate time to backtesting. I test variations of strategies against historical data, identifying adjustments that improve performance. This process gives me the confidence to implement refinements in the live market. 6. Set Goals for the New Year: As you assess your trading performance, set clear and realistic goals for the upcoming year. Define what you aim to achieve, whether it's improving your win rate, reducing drawdowns, or exploring new trading opportunities. Establishing these objectives provides a roadmap for your trading journey in the year ahead. Establish clear and actionable goals for the upcoming year: Specific Objectives: Define precise objectives such as achieving a target percentage return, improving risk-adjusted returns, or expanding your trading skill set. Realistic Targets: Ensure your goals are realistic and achievable within a given timeframe. Unrealistic expectations can lead to frustration and poor decision-making. As an Example; Reflecting on past years, I acknowledged that setting overly ambitious goals led to frustration. This year, I’d set realistic expectations, aiming for a modest increase in overall profitability. This approach allows me to focus on consistent improvement without the undue pressure of reaching unrealistic targets. Overall: December offers a unique window for traders to step back from active trading, assess their performance, and strategically plan for the future. By leveraging this period of reduced market activity, traders can gain valuable insights, refine their strategies, and set achievable goals for the upcoming year. Make the most of this opportune moment to position yourself for success in your trading endeavors.
Education
by Amr-Sadek
5 Ways to Make you a Better TraderAs our main goal as a trader is to "make money," in order to do that comes many other things that factor in to having an "edge" in the market. In this post, I will breakdown 5 ways which could help improve your trading: #1 Get a good full night sleep As sleep plays a vital role in our lives for general well being, it also plays an important role in your trading performance. To get a good full night's sleep takes practice and consistency to train your "Internal Clock'' or also known as your "Circadian Rhythms." Before we get into a few ways to help you achieve a better sleep, What are Circadian Rhythms? Circadian rhythms are physical, mental, and behavioral changes that follow a 24-hour cycle. Below is a figure that represents this. photos.app.goo.gl There are many things that could throw off your "Circadian Rythym" which affects your quality of sleep and it doesn't take long to fall in a cycle of disruptions throughout the night. To take control of your sleep requires practice and consistency, it doesn't happen in one night. Here are a few things which could help your quality of sleep: Consistency on Bedtimes & Wake up times Benefits of you implementing a specific wake up time will give you bring you sharper focus, a brighter mood and improved alertness. Having a regular sleep schedule helps with many different aspects like, emotional stability, productivity and concentration, digestion and regularity. By setting a regular routine you can increase the amount of sleep you get on a daily basis which on average you should strive for at least 7+ hours. ▪️ Create a restful environment In order to improve your quality of sleep you need to get comfortable. This could mean many things but it all starts with creating a restful environment. This begins by silencing noise. Turn off the power on the television or silence non-emergency notifications from your cell phone. Starting with these brings you to another way to create a restful environment which is dimming the lights. As a change in setting also creates comfort, it could mean absolutely anything that you may want. The goal is to fall asleep as quickly as possible. ▪️ Avoid large meals or caffeine late night While we all know this is bad, it's a very common pattern that people fall into which disrupts their sleep. Eating late at night causes muscles to work to digest which affects the ability to fall asleep. Caffeine also delays your ability to sleep due to keeping you alert. Eliminating these 2 things could make your sleep that much better. # 2 Journaling The importance of Journaling is not only to keep a track of your wins or losses, but to map out your emotions that got you to that result. What caused you to enter a trade just to see a reverse and your stop loss hit? Did you panic over FOMO? Did you take a loss on the last trade and you were so sure the price was about to break out of the channel? Maybe you felt stressed and got anxiety. The purpose of mapping out your emotions is to identify the triggers to what's really causing you to trade by your emotions. Set a routine which allows you to map your emotions the most effectively. For example, If you pick every Sunday to journal your trades and mapping of emotions, how are you able to remember why you pulled the trigger during the U.S Session that previous Monday? Spacing time out at the end of your trading day allows you to go through the thought process and identify your "do's" or "don'ts". Before your trading day begins, review your previous days trades or running positions. Look at areas that need improvement and focus on executing them properly. Another thing to help your journaling is to review your targets and goals that are ahead of you. Becoming a better trader doesn't mean you need to trade more. In fact, it means the total opposite. When you hit your target for the week or month, quit! A trader will never make a 60% return on their total capital overnight, they make small realistic targets and continuously review their goals to ensure they are on track for achieving them. Keeping a spreadsheet and thought process of your work is important to bring out success and to ensure you don't make the same error over and over again. #3 Time management Managing your time accordingly is important to keep a balance AWAY from the charts. The more you stare at your trade running the more you'll become emotionally attached to it. Balancing your personal life throughout your business day/schedule will create a detachment from that position and let you control your emotions without triggering unnecessary feelings that could take you out of your element. In order to know when to step away, you first need to know when you're going to trade, in what session? How many hours in that session? There are many variables that make this up but simply for myself, I trade the U.S Session, mainly the first 4 hours by preference. I chose this as I am sleeping the European and Asian session and from my previous back testing results, I found the market to range throughout the course after noon. Keeping an open mind and knowing your hours you'll be active within can make it easier for you to step away to spend time with your family and friends when that time comes to disconnect. You'll know there will be more opportunities tomorrow, you will become more disciplined. Try also only looking at the charts 3-4 times a day, say before the market opens, close to noon, at market close and before you go to bed. Consistently trying NOT to look at your charts will help you maintain a separation of emorion which will create improvements in many areas of your trading. #4 Healthy Lifestyle 3 main factors in a healthy lifestyle are: ▪️Exercise ▪️Healthy Eating & Diet ▪️Socialization Exercising is not only physically satisfying, but it is also mentally satisfying knowing there's an improvement in your overall health and wellness. Having your blood pressure, cholesterol, weight in order gives you a positive attitude and that brings out better performance. Have you ever heard of the term "you are what you eat?". Well, if you eat nothing but junk, sweets, fast food and on then expect your trading performance to reflect accordingly. Meaning your laziness or lack of motivation, possibly fatigue, will factor into trading errors and profits left on the table. Late executions, running profits cut short, all the errors which come with that category. BEing alert and knowing what to do when to do it will maximize your returns. Clean up the diet and your focus will strengthen. A healthy diet consists of the following: ▪️Fruits and vegetables ▪️Protein foods ▪️Whole grain foods Encouragement from your friends and family to eat more foods in these groups is helpful to make it a natural choice before that unhealthy temptation. Socializing with friends & family is important for your brain health specifically Interaction, to promote safety and much more. #5 Your overall mood Before you pull that trigger and execute a trade, ask yourself how you're feeling. How did you wake up today? How was your sleep? These kinds of questions will keep you from trading when you're mentally just not there. Identifying when not to trade is critical to avoid losing money. Remember that you have a plan and rules to follow. If the market does not meet your entry requirements wait until another pair does, understand there will always be another chance. Lastly, one of the most important factors which boosts your overall mood is CONFIDENCE. You must have confidence in your set ups, your technical analysis, your take profits and more. Keep having confidence in your work will bring your mood and physcology to where it needs to be to improve your results. I hope you have learned something from this post ! Thanks for taking the time fo read it! Click the like button and follow me for more educational ideas!!! Thanks Trade Safe
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by ktlfx
How to not loose your life savings? Risk management☠️You've probably heard statistic that 90% of traders lose their deposit in the first 3 months. Sometimes it's pocket money, sometimes salary, and sometimes life savings. Once I saw a message in a traders group from a frustrated 55 year old man who had lost all of his savings of the last 20 years of working as a security guard in a supermarket just in ONE MONTH by trading crypto. There are plenty of stories like that, and I give you my word that most of them happen due to a lack of risk management . What is risk management? Risk management is the collection of rules that prevent you from losing substantial part of the deposit in a single day or week. Where there are no rules, there is chaos; where there are rules, there is order. When a trader has no rules, he's just gambling. That's what happens to most beginners - they hear that there's some cool coin worth buying, and in a month they'll be driving a Lambo and moving to a mansion on the Côte d'Azur. Such a newcomer may indeed be lucky at first, and he will attract dozens of other hodlers with his success, but there is a problem with such a strategy: Math There is never a 100% guarantee that any asset will grow; there is always a chance of failure. Question for you: if there is a 10% chance of losing, is it worth risking your entire deposit to double it with a 90% chance? In a vacuum Yes, but let's imagine that the same opportunity happens again. Would you take that risk? What about the next one? This is how we come to the rake that almost all beginners step on. Even if the chance of losing money is negligible, repeat this situation over and over again and you will once fail 100%. Go to Reddit WallStreetBets and you can easily find dozens of stories of people who were lucky in the beginning when they only had $20,000, and then they lost everything they gained in one day (sometimes it was millions of dollars). Even the smartest person gets dizzy from a huge sum, and without strict rules such a person will 100% lose his deposit in trading. What happens after a trader loses his deposit? In such a situation a trader experiences the “ 7 stages of accepting death ”. Let's take the example of, say, Joe (name changed). Joe got interested in crypto a month ago when his brother told him at a family dinner that he managed to buy himself a new car with bitcoin profits. He told Joe how to sign up for an exchange and helped him make his first deposit of $1,000. A month later Joe figured out how to open positions on Binance and learned how to use free trading ideas from TradingView. With their help he managed to double in the first week by buying a coin in the game and, believing in himself, he decided to play big, pouring the $10000 of family's savings into his account, of course, in secret from his wife. 1-2. Shock and Denial. Joe gets up in the morning, and, as usual, first thing in the morning he takes out his phone and checks his portfolio on Binance. It turns out that overnight his main asset, Luna, collapsed from $80 to $5. He has lost half of his deposit, but decides it's no big deal and it's a great opportunity to average out his position. He quickly decides to borrow money from relatives, promising to pay it all back in a week. After all, if the price goes back up, he'll be a millionaire. 3-4. Disappointment and Depression. All day long Joe stares at the screen and watches the price, but it is not going up. Moreover, it plunges and is already trading at $1 apiece. Toward evening, the veil finally falls from his eyes, and he begins to understand the reality of the situation: - His and his friends' life savings are lost. - Undermined trust of relatives. - An almost guaranteed divorce after the woman learns about the lost funds. - Years of work down the drain. He cannot help but cry under the weight of the real facts, though he has not done so for years. A woman leaves him, taking his children with her. His parents and friends stop communicating with him. He is left alone, without any support and with huge debts behind his back. 5-7. Experiment, solution, acceptance. Weeks, perhaps months, pass. Joe gets used to his new life. He made a mistake, paid for it, and will be paying for it for years to come. He realizes he has no choice, so he just accepts reality. All he can do now is learn from his mistakes and not make them in the future. What proper risk management looks like: Ten years later, Joe has paid off all his debts and is much wiser, as evidenced by his decision to take professional training in trading before doing it again. There he learns what risk management is and lays out his plan: - Risk per trade is 1%. You have to misjudge 100 trading situations in a row to lose your deposit, which is almost impossible. - The minimum ratio of risk to profit is 1:3. This means that every time he is right, he earns 3% to the deposit, and it is enough for him to be right in only one out of three cases, to be at breakeven. - You cannot lose more than 3% in a day. It forces you to choose trades more responsibly and levels out the possibility of tilt, having lost money due to emotionalism. - You must not lose more than 9% in a week. If the market is not going your way for a couple of days in a row, then the problem is with you and your inability to adapt. It's better to take a break and come back later with a fresh perspective. With this approach, Joe trades responsibly and learns from his mistakes effectively. In a couple of months he becomes a profitable trader and celebrates his first victories. Subsequently, he will become a successful trader and someday teach someone else the miracle of risk management 😉
Education
by Artem_Dishel
4
EURUSD Kicking myself!!The fact that I missed both of these is getting on my nerves, especially since using regression lines to spot patterns like these is a good 30% of my strategy. I've been incorporating supply and demand into my strategy over the past month or so, and I think I've gotten too focused on just that. Somewhere along the line I stopped tracing regression lines through my fractals and it cost me close to 150 pips over the last two days. I've taken 75 pips over the past two days which is always good but there's no denying that I can improve big time. Waking up to an 80 pip drop in price after you had written the entire day off... Got to stay focused on everything to really take my trading to the next level. It's tough.
by NeoDaNomad
What role does strategy play in trading?Sunzi begins by establishing the importance of strategy. Although the word bing has been translated as "war" in most works in the west, once you approach the original Chinese manuscripts and the sense of Sunzi's work, you immediately come to understand that he was not talking about warefare, instead, Sunzi wants us to appreciate how important it is to develop strategic skills to avoid our own destruction when competing. Of course trading is man-made, but competition is a natural process. We are all the products of evolutionary competition, however, the true skill in competition—that is, an understanding of strategy—is not inborn. For most of us, competition creates problems, but only in the sense that if we don’t understand strategy, life is unnecessarily difficult. We earn our livelihood, love, and everything else through strategy. When we say that skill in strategy is important in our lives, we are saying specifically that strategy is a skill. It isn’t inborn any more than the knowledge of mathematics is inborn. We must learn strategic skills. We develop these skills by working at them. Some people are more comfortable competing than others are, but to become successful at any level of competition we all have to work. Competition in trading brings out the best in us. It enriches the world in which we live. It replaces less effective methods with more effective methods. The trading world competes for every single dollar. In doing so, traders constantly improve their operational choices and decrease the costs of their operation. Competition eliminates poorly developed traders and and leaves only the best in each category. So, do you really have what this vast compettition arena requires?
CME_MINI:ESH2021Education
by SunziTrader
1
HOW-TO: Backtest Your Forex Strategy & Increase Your Win-RateIn my earlier article, " Proving Your Trading System with Backtesting ", I demonstrated how, in the Futures market, you could backtest your trading system, see what works and what doesn't, change your variables, and rinse & repeat until you have a winning trading formula. You GET this winning formula by torture-testing (ahem, *back*testing) your system under every market condition. My last video backtested Futures as an example and I received dozens of requests to demonstrate and develop a similar system using Forex, so here it is! This video will show you HOW you can backtest your own Forex Trading system over time, determine its results, and refine it until it is bulletproof (or marketproof!). All you need is a Trading System, a Spreadsheet, and a great trading platform (ahem, like TradingView) :-) Trading can be the most rewarding of careers, but only after putting in the hours of hard work. And like everything else in life, if you don't put in the work, you won't get the results. And if you put in the work AHEAD of time, you won't have to put a DIME of your hard-earned capital into the market until you are CONFIDENT that your system will multiply that money in your account rather than feed the market monster. I hope you enjoy the video... but more importantly I hope it will help you become a better trader. If this was beneficial to you please feel free to leave a like, a follow, or a comment... I'd love to hear from you and stay in touch as we all move forward in our trading journeys! Trade hard, and trade well! -Anthony
Education
by ocaptain
29
Backtesting Part 2: Testing Your Trading System in 3 Easy StepsIn my earlier article, " Proving Your Trading System with Backtesting ", I outlined the HOWs and WHYs of backtesting. Does your trading system work under all conditions? Under what conditions might it *not* work? Can you remove those instances from your plan? Under what conditions might you *improve* your win rate? In another article, " The Unexamined Trader ", Just as an unexamined life is not worth living, the unexamined trader should not be trading a system that has not been tested under every market condition (and I mean TORTURE tested under HUNDREDS of trades). This video will show you HOW you can backtest your own system over time, determine its results, and refine it until it is bulletproof (or marketproof!). All you need is a Trading System, a Spreadsheet, and a great trading platform (ahem, like TradingView) :-) It will take some time and effort, but like everything else in life, if you don't put in the work, you won't get the results. And if you put in the work, you won't have to put a DIME of your precious capital into the market until you are CONFIDENT that your system will multiply that money in your account rather than feed the market monster. I hope you enjoy the video... but more importantly I hope it will help you become a better trader. If this was beneficial to you please feel free to leave a like, a follow, or a comment... I'd love to hear from you and stay in touch as we all move forward in our trading journeys! Trade hard, and trade well! -Anthony
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by ocaptain
171
Are you "The Unexamined Trader"?Socrates famously said “The unexamined life is not worth living.” Why do we do what we do, why do we feel the way we feel about something, or what is our purpose in life? These questions brought about generation after generation of journals, diaries, and random thoughts from some of our greatest thinkers from Socrates himself, to Jonathan Edwards in early America, and maybe even yourself. If we look at the information, meditate on it, we *should* take future actions that will be purposeful and not live day-to-day mundane lives. We want lives of purpose, of meaning, and of growth and satisfaction. The same thing goes for our trades. So many of us trade willy-nilly, never looking back as to WHY we took a trade, what was the PURPOSE of the trade, what did we LEARN from that trade, and what are we NEVER going to do again or what will I CONTINUE to do in my future trades? Just as an unexamined life is not worth living, the unexamined trader should not be trading. “Why do I keep making the same mistakes?” “How come I let my emotions get the best of me?” “Why do I always seem to miss out on best trades with the monster returns?” Ask yourself, do you examine each and every one of your trades? At the end of each trading day, do you look for patterns of profit and signs of “The Suck” that draws your account down day after red-candle day? Can you look at the psychology, feel the emotion of why you planned a trade, why you got in a trade, how were you feeling during a trade, and why did you get out of a trade when you did? After that, did you ask “What did I learn?” “What will I continue to do?” and “What mistake will I eradicate from my mindset and NEVER do again?” There are three kinds of people: Those who make things happen, those who watch things happen, and those who ask “What happened?” The same goes for trading. If you never look back at the trades you took, especially the ones that were losers, you will consistently ask “What happened? Why am I always a loser?” If you watch things happen *plus* examine all the factors that went on during the process, your trading ability will grow inch by inch, yard by yard, which will turn you into one of those top traders who MAKE things happen. You will be able to *see* the money on the chart. And once you learn to identify patterns by analyzing trade after trade after trade, you find there are *limitless* opportunities to make money. (I paraphrased that last sentence from Mark Douglas, Trading in the Zone, which I highly recommend.) All that said, DO YOU JOURNAL? The trade journal is often the most overlooked tool in the trader toolbox. There are several ways to do so, and there are a plethora of traders on YouTube who share their ideas on how to journal your trades, and I recommend that you try several methods to find what’s right for you. The method I like is to screenshot of my trade and document the fool out of it right there on the chart. Then I “tell the story” via text boxes and arrows, and I number each one of them to walk myself through the story. Yes, each trade has a *story* to tell. I include the FACTS of the trade (the levels of Supply and Demand, the RSI, the trend, whatever factual decisions that went into the trade), the PSYCHOLOGY of the trade (how did I feel when price started going sideways right when price went to 2/3 towards my target?) and the results of the trade (what did I learn, what did I do great that I will continue to do, and what did I not do well that I should remove from my plan or my psychology). The proof is in the puddin’ as they say… The Covid lockdowns of early 2020 were the "best worst thing" to happen to my trading career. I was a Covid Casualty, as my employer shut down in part as a result of the Covid lockdown requirements. I was mad, upset, depressed, that I couldn’t go out to a coffee shop, bar, or cigar lounge. My friends all hunkered down in their domestic bunkers and wouldn’t come out. After 6 weeks of feeling sorry for myself I had had enough and decided to backtest / backtest / backtest and journal / journal / journal for 8+ hours per day for 30 days. I backtested the top 2 Futures contracts by volume in each category on the 15 minute chart. (2 metals, 2 indexes, 2 meats, 2 energies, etc.). 300-some-odd trades later, I felt like Neo when he woke up out of the Matrix and saw Cypher looking at all the green gobbledygook on the screens … instead of a nonsense of symbols Cypher told Neo that now he could see “Blondes, Brunettes, and Redheads” in the patterns. After 300 trades, simulating, backtesting, and journaling, I could “see” the money on the chart… the patterns of cashflow… the areas of value traded by the big institutional traders so I could follow them in their footsteps. I went from backtesting to forward testing, testing with live data in a simulated account using everything I had learned, and three weeks in a row I had a green week. And then I went live. Do this yourself and I promise, it will be like taking the Red Pill. You will never see the Matrix, you will never see the charts, in the same way. Instead of blondes, brunettes, and redheads, you will see opportunities, traps, and the footprints left by the market makers… And we can then *follow* in their footsteps. I leave you with a screenshot of one of my trades from last week… I hope it will inspire you to do the same. If you are not yet a consistent, profitable trader, learn to “see through the noise’ by journaling. If you want to see the scene I referenced from the Matrix, click here and enjoy! (And clicking the ‘Like’ and “Share” buttons wouldn’t hurt either if this article was edifying to you!) If you like it, I’ll write some more! If you want to show off your journaling prowess, leave a comment with a picture! Trade hard, trade well...
COMEX:GCZ2020Education
by ocaptain
19
Every trader MUST have a trading journal!1. What is a trade journal? A trade journal is a method which allows you to describe all the relevant details of every trade that you take. 2. Should I have a trade journal? Every single trader MUST have a trading journal. Without having a clear picture for each of your trades, it will be very hard to become a successful trader. 3. How does a trade journal help me? A trade journal is like a time machine: it allows you at any time to review your trades and their outcome, reflecting your strategy, state of mind and the market conditions before, during and after the trade. 4. What is the purpose of the trade journal? Reviewing all the relevant details of your trades will help you understand how successful you are as a trader, what you are doing right and wrong, when and why you take winning or loosing trades, what and how should be improved. 5. How to keep a trade journal? The sole purpose of a trade journal is to provide you at any time with a clear picture for every trade you take. It should contain relevant details, such as: - What, when and why have you traded? - What was the entry price, stop loss and take profit? - How much of your account balance did you put into that trade? What were the potential risk and profit? - How did the market looked before and after the trade closed? - How do you feel before and after the trade? To make it easier for you, there is a link to a template that you can download and START USING TODAY!. Template Link: Click HERE
Education
by Mike713
6
Value Investment - RUBI - Sales RecoveryAll comments and likes are very appreciated. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Description I do hope that the federal government will do its best to support millions of families that will suffer during 2020. This report is about the more mundane topic of a stock recommendation. I do believe that the combination of stimulus from the federal government, and Federal Reserve, plus a peak in COVID-19 infections will allow the US economy to begin to recover later in 2020. To maximize risk and return I am recommending a company in the digital advertising industry whose stock price has declined 57% since Feb 19th. Sales and profits will be depressed in 2020, but sales could double by 2023. The name of the company is Rubicon (RUBI), and they have a strong balance sheet to withstand the financial pressures expected over the next six months. We know that the near term news will be horrible. Twitter, an advertising driven business pre-announced March 2020 quarterly results today. Advertising sales grew about +13% year over year in the months of Jan & February 2020. In the month of March 2020 sales appear to have plummeted by (44%). The analyst at JP Morgan reduced his 2020 profit forecast and now projects that EBITDA for Twitter will decline year over year by 50%. Inspite of this dire forecast, Twitter’s share price rose today, despite a valuation of 6x times reduced 2020 EV/sales, and 30x times reduced 2020 EV/EBITDA. Rubicon is a more attractive investment and I will explain why for the remainder of this report. Comparative Income Statements: The most similar public company to Rubicon is Tradedesk (TTD). The Rubicon business has a lot of operating leverage with over 44% incremental EBITDA margins. Tradedesk provides a view of the financial statement profile Rubicon will show as sales triple. The table below shows how as RUBI sales triple over a few years its EBITDA can rise seven-fold as EBITDA margins rise from 12% to 32%. Tradedesk a first cousin, is a larger version of Rubicon. Firm TTD RUBI Year 2019 2019 Sales $661 $223 Million GM% 77% 67% EBITDA$211 $27 Million EBITDA 32% 12% Comparative Valuation: I have assumed that advertising sales at Rubicon, Tradedesk and Twitter decline (30%) in 2020. The weakest quarter will be June 2020 where sales could decline (50%) year over year. Even after its decline Tradedesk trades at 12.8x times 2020 EV/sales that are depressed. Twitter is valued at 6x EV/sales for 2020. Last year a direct competitor of Rubicon was acquired for 5x times EV/sales. Rubicon as the small cap in the group is valued as 3.2x EV/sales for the depressed 2020 year. RUBI has a strong balance sheet with $150 million in cash and no debt after the Rubicon-Telaria merger closes. Even if the company loses money in 2020 for one or more quarters the company has plenty of cash. At the current $5.63 price/share RUBI is trading at 4x times cash. When To Buy The Stock: Over many years of investing I have noticed that cyclical stocks tend to bottom in the quarter of maximum year over year sales decline. The June 2020 quarter will have the maximum sales decline with the assumption of a 50% decline. Thereafter as the economy reopens sales will improve and the stock price should as well. Our stock recommendation could be a little early, but this report provides you the background information to decide if you wish to wait a month or two to invest in Rubicon. 2021 A Much Better Year: Our assumption is that the digital advertising market declines by (30%) in 2020 and then grows 30% in 2021. Rubicon is expected to gain market share (explained later) which will drive 50% sales growth in 2021 for the entire company. On December 19, 2019 Rubicon (RUBI) and Telaria (TLRA) announced an all stock merger where Telaria shareholders will receive 1.08 shares of RUBI for every 1.0 share of TLRA that they own. A completion of the merger is expected within a month. Company management had forecasted $20 million in cost synergies in December 2019, with most of the savings linked to public company costs and no employees being furloughed. With the economy plunging into a recession we believe the company may seek to cut costs by a total of $50 million. Company Description: Once upon a time buying and selling common stock on the New York Stock Exchange was done by humans. Today the process has been automated by computers. Today buying and selling advertising space on the television and the internet is still mostly done by humans. The automation of this process has begun and it is called “programmatic advertising.” TradeDesk is the largest programmatic exchange for advertising buyers and here is a quote from one of their advertising agency customers. “We believe advertising will be transacted digitally,” “The future of all media is digital and programmatic …eventually all media will be digital and it will be transacted by machines.“ Companies that succeed in automating the process of buying and selling advertising inventory, have the opportunity to create enterprises worth tens of billions of dollars in market capitalization. Brands such as Apple or Colgate are the buyers of advertising inventory and can make programmatic purchases via Trade Desk which has a $9 Billion market cap. Publishers are sellers of advertising inventory such as Hulu television or Spotify. There is an opportunity for one or more companies to help the publishers automate the process of selling their advertising inventory. Both Rubicon Project and Telaria are striving to become programmatic advertisers for publishers like Spotify and Hulu, and in this large $100 Billion digital advertising market create an enterprise with a multi-billion dollar market capitalization. Advertising Market: Over $333 Billion was spent in 2019 worldwide on digital advertising. About two-thirds of that ad spending is in several captive walled gardens such as Google $104 Billion or Facebook $70 Billion. The remaining $100 Billion of advertising is spent in the open internet which is the market that Rubicon and Telaria serve. Eighty percent or $80 Billion of this advertising is sold the old fashioned way with a sales-force. Twenty percent or $20 Billion of this advertising spend has been automated with advertising exchanges. Key 4 assertions in the Rubicon-Telaria investment thesis: The $20 Billion programmatic advertising market is going to grow at a 6% CAGR during 2019-2023 as publishers opt to sell more of their advertising inventory through these automated marketplaces. Rubicon-Telaria will benefit as a consolidator and grow its programmatic market share from 6% Catalyst An end to the stay at home policy by April should allow the economy to begin to recover. A full recovery may take years, but sales should improve from the lows that will be seen in the June 2020 Quarter. I and/or others I advise do not hold a material investment in the issuer's securities. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ All comments and likes are very appreciated. Best Regards, I0_USD_of_Warren_Buffet
RLong
by I0_USD_of_Warren_Buffett
3
My biggest hurdles as a traderI just wanted to write this post for the sake of transparency. Although my predictions verifiably have a high success rate when trading this isn't always the case. Although I don't lose money I also don't make much. My problem is consistency. And some others. Please comment if you have suggestions on ways to improve. This post is to brainstorm what I feel are the biggest obstacles to consistent profitability and maybe learn something from you. What were your greatest challenges that when you overcame them allowed you to be more profitable? My biggest nemesis I believe is got to be down to over trading. I also get jittery. Sell my winners to quickly and hold my losses too long. I know somewhere in here is the key to success. I also tend to focus almost exclusively on reversals vs continuation moves. (something else I'll be testing) So you can see I've got several variables to work with as I constantly seek to improve as a trader. I have a good sense of the direction of the market. Managing my trades is it seems the problem. That and taking less than ideal entries. So is it an issue of r&r being skewed? I easily win 70% of the time. The problem is I invarioubly take big losses that wipe out all the winning. This could also be a function of leverage. Although that is no longer going to be a problem. My solution is going to be to try to focus exclusively on reversals which are showing confirmation of a reversal. And maybe wave 3 breakouts. I need to get out of that state of thinking that says I always need to be in the market or that such a technique can be profitable. I'm beginning to verify for myself it's not. Also looking at confirmations at longer timeframes, trading in the direction of the trend etc. might help. Overall just using more filters and being more selective when entering trades. Then testing different ideas for risk management including laddering and different stop levels. These are the areas I'm focusing to improve my trading. What are yours? Let me know if you have any tips or if you have experience overcoming the problems or any others I forgot to mention. Salud amigos
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Demetriostrades
1