xagusdagain silver. im going to look for a good long entry.
went through .382 but is still in correction i think.
comments and likes are appreciated.
from january:
key areas up:
Impulsewave
(Daily) The start of wave 3 of 5 or the Bullish Bat // IF=THEN ®FX:AUDCAD
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% to 50% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
AUDUSD Potential Elliott Wave third wave tradeElliott wave's principle is that the market moves in waves. In a mouvement, there is 5 waves or impulses.
Here with AUDUSD, there is a clear double bottom reversal ending the bearish trend we were in for a few years. After the double bottom, we saw the first wave already completed and right now we are in the second wave, which is a corrective one. We should begin the third wave soon and right now AUDUSD is trading at the 50% fibonacci retracement, the 100 days moving average and the span B of ichimoku's kumo cloud.
To me this looks like the perfect setup to trade the second wave, which is the institutional wave and the longest wave of the 5.
USD/JPY LONG SETUP!Consolidation till 109.50 area, then long till 110.50-60 area. If price closes below the high of wave 1, the pattern becomes invalid.
Happy Trading!
(D) 5 waves iMpulse // IF=THEN ®FX:EURUSD
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% to 50% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
CORRECTiON:
Wave A = usually around the 50%/61.8% of wave 5
Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A and Should not exceed 75% of wave A
Wave C = Wave A (AB=CD)
161% ext Wave A
262% ext Wave A
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(Daily) The Bullish Bat & The Third Elliott Wave // IF=THEN ®FX:EURCAD
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% to 50% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
CORRECTiON:
Wave A = usually around the 50%/61.8% of wave 5
Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A and Should not exceed 75% of wave A
Wave C = Wave A (AB=CD)
161% ext Wave A
262% ext Wave A
BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
Safe Trades;
(D) C to D for a Cypher // IF=THEN ®FX:GBPUSD
CYPHER:
Point B:
38.2% to 61.8% XA
Point C:
127% to 141% ext XA
Point D:
78.6% XC
Target:
TP1 38.2% CD
TP2 61.8% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(2H) Harmonics // 5-waves impulse // Cluster // IF=THEN ®FX:GBPJPY
BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
CYPHER:
Point B:
38.2% to 61.8% XA
Point C:
127% to 141% ext XA
Point D:
78.6% XC
Target:
TP1 38.2% CD
TP2 61.8% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(4h) Harmonics Combustion // IF=THEN ®FX:USOIL
CYPHER:
Point B:
38.2% to 61.8% XA
Point C:
127% to 141% ext XA
Point D:
78.6% XC
Target:
TP1 38.2% CD
TP2 61.8% CD
BUTTERFLY
Point B:
78.6% XA
Point C:
38.2% AB
88.6% AB
Point D
161% ext BC
261% ext BC
Targets:
TP1 61.8% CD
TP2 127% CD
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% to 50% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
EURUSD Enters Support Zone - 1.0982 Key LevelThe break above 1.1087 on Feb 3 eliminated the bearish impulse and left us with higher probability patterns of:
*A 5 wave move higher beginning Dec 2015 that likely overcomes 1.1720 (bullish)
*A bearish diagonal such that last week's 1.1376 high was wave 2 of the diagonal (near term bearish to below 1.0517)
Though prices have sold off 200+ pips from last week, we're still leaning towards the bullish wave count. Why?
First, FXCMSSI has been ranging between -1.4 and -2.0 We saw -2.0 at last week's highs. The current reading is -1.45 (catch trader positioning in real time here ). This indicates traders were not believing this bullish run. We know from past experiences that the majority of traders tend to be wrong so this lack of belief in the up trend is a bullish undertone.
Secondly, though prices rejected swiftly at last week's purple trend line, this sell off is typical and within normal bounds based on the wave count depicted on the chart. Said another way, if the bulls are going to take over, 1.1000 - 1.1135 is the price zone where that is likely to take place. The divergence on RSI is indicating slowing momentum to the downside. Below 1.0982, then we'll need to reconsider the higher probability patterns.
So lack of shift to bullish positioning and wave positioning has me leaning towards the bull camp with a good risk to reward ratio opportunity approaching. (1.1122 and 1.1087 and 1.1011 are areas of interest)
Good luck traders!
(4h) Bearish Harmonic Shark // Completed correction // IF=THEN ®FX:AUDCAD
Structure and eventual bearish harmonic pattern.
Bearish SHARK:
Point B:
61.8% XA
Point C:
113% to 161% AB
Point D:
161% to 224% BC
88.6% to 113% XC
Target:
38.2% to 100% CD
Safe trades;
(4H) The Golden Spur // Eventual Cypher // IF=THEN ®FX:XAUUSD
After 32 days, 16h of consolidation...
- The Impulse, wave 1 (weekly resistance);
- The 61.8% retracement and wave 2;
- New impulse into 127% extension from wave 1 (daily resistance forged); (wave 3 not yet completed...)
- Small retracement, didn't touch the 38.2%; (respecting previous structure, ascending wedge or channel, the structure...the thing...)
- Price is above the weekly resistance, it can turn into support;
- A move upward into the 161% extension from wave 1 and that will complete wave 3;
- We know that wave 4 can never overlap wave 1 (cross into the same price area) and wave 5 is "equal" to wave 1, and there's a monthly resistance @1191.41.
- We also know if the price enter in a bearish momentum it will need to break the structure and to test it before sinking looking for previous structure (if there's any, in this case shown by the red arrows).
Harmonic:
The Bullish Cypher @Daily Support:
Point B:
38.2% to 61.8% XA
Point C:
127% to 141% ext XA
Point D:
78.6% XC
Target:
TP1 38.2% CD
TP2 61.8% CD
Check previous published idea - link below
Safe Trades;
(4H) Structure Breakout // Eventual Bullish Harmonic / IF=THEN ®FX:NZDUSD
Bullish and Bearish structure breakouts. Wait the price to test previous structure, after breaking it, to enter the trade;
At this moment "we" are looking for sell opportunities;
CYPHER:
Point B:
38.2% to 61.8% XA
Point C:
127% to 141% ext XA
Point D:
78.6% XC
Target:
TP1 38.2% CD
TP2 61.8% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(4H) ABC correction // Double Bottom // Butterfly // IF=THEN ®FX:AUDCAD
ABC correction with a double bottom, a neck to break, the price should find some resistance and start to pull back into the 61.8% retracement zone and there, the market should forge an entry. (bullish rsi divergence on oversold condition for instance) *
However, find comfortable situations that allow us to enter the bullish momentum is where the focus point.
BUTTERFLY
Point B:
78.6% XA
Point C:
38.2% AB
88.6% AB
Point D
161% ext BC
261% ext BC
Targets:
TP1 61.8% CD
TP2 127% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(4h) Gartley&Wave Synced @161% extension // IF=THEN ®FX:USOIL
Long the wave, Short the Harmonic;
GARTLEY
Point B:
61.8% can not touch 78.6% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
78.6% XA
127% ext AB
Target:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
---------------------------------
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
CORRECTiON:
Wave A = usually around the 50%/61.8% of wave 5
Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A and Should not exceed 75% of wave A
Wave C = Wave A (AB=CD)
161% ext Wave A
262% ext Wave A
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
(1h) Structure // Impulse // Harmonic Bat // IF=THEN ®FX:NZDUSD
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
CORRECTiON:
Wave A = usually around the 50%/61.8% of wave 5
Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A and Should not exceed 75% of wave A
Wave C = Wave A (AB=CD)
161% ext Wave A
262% ext Wave A
BAT:
Point B:
38.2% to 50% XA
Point C:
38.2% to 88.6% AB
Point D:
88.6% XA
Targets:
TP1 38.2% AD
TP2 61.8% AD
Safe Trades;
(1h) Butterfly vs Elliott default impulse ratios // IF=THEN ®FX:NZDJPY
iMPULSE LEG:
Wave 2 = 61.8% of wave 1 (Prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% of the wave one gains;
Can never exceed the start of wave 1);
wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1 (can never be the shortest impulse wave);
wave 4 = 38.2% of wave 3 (can never overlap wave 1 );
wave 5 = wave 1
CORRECTiON:
Wave A = usually around the 50%/61.8% of wave 5
Wave B = Usually 50% of Wave A and Should not exceed 75% of wave A
Wave C = Wave A (AB=CD)
161% ext Wave A
262% ext Wave A
BUTTERFLY
Point B:
78.6% XA (not filled) *
Point C:
38.2% AB
88.6% AB
Point D
161% ext BC
261% ext BC
Targets:
TP1 61.8% CD
TP2 127% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
EURNZD TCT ( RSI HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE + STRUCTURE)Hey there guys! Since I have a sell setup in NZDUSD at CMP, I am looking to buy EURNZD. The price action coming back to previous structure zone. Making a correction after the impulse leg. I am expecting an upside move from the structure zone area to touch the retest of the impulse. Price acton also trading above the EMA's thus indicating a bullish bias. We also see a RSI hidden bullish divergence formation.
AUDNZD sell at the topexpanded triangle as wave 4.
it seems that this expanded triangle has been finished and there is
an opportunity for going short to catch wave 5.
but remember that trading in triangles, especially expanded triangle
is risky.
Tight RR Trade - .6593 Key LevelIt appears the Kiwi has been building impulsive moves higher followed by corrections lower. From an Elliott Wave perspective, circle wave 3 stopped at the 1.618 extension of the circle wave 1 measurement. This is a common relationship between '3' and '1'.
If this is the case, then the proposed wave '4' should hold above the Nov 19 wave '1' high of .6593. Therefore, that price can be used as a stop loss. Targets lie at .6730 (wave 5 = .382 * wave 1-3) and .6848 (wave 5 = .618* wave 1-3). This yields better than a 1:2 risk to reward ratio.
Sentiment on the Kiwi for the past couple of years has been consistent. I find it interesting how for the past 2 years there have been more buyers in NZDUSD yet price has fallen from nearly .85 to the current .66. Now, the number of long traders has dropped to nearly a 2 year low perhaps signaling a bottom is in or is nearby.
Kiwi's Speculative Sentiment Index currently sits near -1.3...this sentiment zone between -1.3 and -1.8 is the lowest in the past 2 years. Sentiment is a contrarian signal so as it falls, look for bullish price patterns.
Follow real-time sentiment readings HERE .
"Oil Bottom" sooner than you thinkOil currently is its last stages of the decline that started in the summer of 2013 and it will place a bottom within the next few weeks. It is declining now in Minute wave v "which will be a 3-wave decline" where Minute waves i, ii, iii, iv and v represent the ending diagonal wave 5 of wave (5).
We are expecting wave v to over-shoot to the downside of the ending diagonal and below the arrow represented on the chart which will lead to triggering stop losses "below wave 3" and to increase the bearish sentiment to a new extreme.
At that point of time Oil should rebound and advance to the upside in at least 3 waves A-B-C towards the 70s~80s area or start an impulsive 5 waves (1-2-3-4-5) to the upside that could take us to new highs in the next years/decade. We cannot tell now but once the prices start to advance we will have more information to call it right.
How can we make money from this analysis? Simple; we have three options:
1-By trading spot or futures (only if you are an active trader).
2-Invest some money in Oil companies now for few years.
3-Buy long term Oil future contracts (with 2017 or 2018 expiry dates).
Happy trading :)
