Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCHF Trading In A Triangle Triangles are made by five waves where each leg is made by three sub-waves, so we see current turn down on USDCHF as a temporary move; it can be wave C) that found a support around 0.9530 area, after a completed five wave fall in sub-wave C of (C). Current upward reaction to 0.9640 is sharp so we believe price is headed up into wave D). At the same time we need to keep in mind that triangles are quite complex, slow corrections that may take some time to develop.
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Impulsive
Copper - A strong impulsive rally towards 2.64 is expected My preferred count shows that copper saw an important low in mid-January at 1.9355 and a strong rally higher towards 2.6410 now should be expected.
From the 1.9355 low a nice five wave rally was seen to 2.3235 as wave (i) and wave (ii) was clearly a three wave zig-zag correction that completed at 2.0130.
Wave (iii) started to move higher from 2.0130 in a pretty messy fashion to 2.2775, which I think was and expanded leading diagonal as wave i and was followed by an almost equally messy wave ii down to 2.1330. It now looks as wave ii completed at 2.1330 and wave iii of (iii) higher is ready to develop.
The first strong indication, this is the case, will be a break above the minor channel resistance-line near 2.1945 for a rally higher to 2.2775 on the way higher to 2.38 and 2.64.
Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Undergoing A Possible CorrectionUSDJPY fell nicely down to our 261.8% Fibonacci projected level over the last two days where wave 5 might completed an extended red wave 3), based on recent sharp turn back to 101.00 area. However, despite a strong intraday bounce we see leg up as part of a new corrective rally. We are talking about red wave 4) that may rally even to 102.00-102.70 area before market would be ready for a new sell-off, then into wave 5) through the 99.00 mark.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY In For More WeaknessOn the intraday view of USDJPY we are looking towards more weakness as we believe that we are trading in a new impulse in red wave iii) which can reach levels around the 99 mark, before slowing down for a correction in red wave iv).
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Elliott Wave Analysis: DAX Looking At 10900DAX moved sharply higher last week so it looks like it is making nice five minor waves within black wave 5. We are looking towards 10900 area while price trades above 10460. Later price may make a minimum three wave correction and move lower.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Bearish Decline Underway On NZDUSDNZDUSD is turning nicely down for the last 24 hours but pair still doesn't have five waves down from the top, so it's important to wait even more before short ideas can be considered. Ideally we will see a drop to 0.7170 today into a fifth wave, and then a three wave bounce next week could give us an opportunity to join the downtrend.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: USDCAD Trading In A FlatUSDCAD turned lower in the last two days, making a new bearish impulse that we see it as wave C of a flat in a higher degree correction. As we know wave C should be made by five waves so another short-term decline beneath 1.2990 can be in play for wave five of C, before market turns higher with impulsive reaction. Daily close above 1.3130 would suggest that lows are already in place.
A Flat is a three-wave pattern labeled A-B-C that generally moves sideways. It is corrective, counter-trend and is a very common Elliott pattern.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: USDJPY Aiming For 100It's very interesting to see USDJPY moving sharply down despite higher stocks, but we need to respect what market is doing. That said, we are looking even lower now on USDJPY, simply because we need to respect the price action which shows a three wave rally up to 102.66 area. So it was a corrective and temporary bounce, labeled as wave 4 that is pointing back to 100 psychological level.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPAUD Could Be In For A Reversal At 1.62Got a question for GBPAUD after recent sharp turn down. Well on the daily chart, I see price falling into a fifth wave of a decline that can represents final piece of a bearish trend if we consider idea of an A-B-C decline from 2015 high. That said, a bullish turn can be coming in weeks ahead, ideally from around 1.62-1.64 area where pair my find a support at some strong Fib. levels.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: GOLD Trading HigherOn the intraday chart of gold we kind of adjusted our wave count a little, as of recent price data. We think that price could now be trading in final stages of blue wave v of 3. Meaning that a temporary reversal, wave 4 could be in the cards in seasons to come.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: DAX In A Possible CorrectionDAX is trading sharply to the upside, with some strong upward reaction from 9300 which looks like an extended wave. Usually third waves are extended so our updated wave count shows that this can be black sub-wave 3, that could be already over as of recent sharp reversal. That said a minimum three wave recovery may follow in black wave 4, ideally towards the 38.2 of 50.0 Fibonacci ratio from where a new reversal higher may occur.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Intraday View On GOLDOn the 1H chart of GOLD we are observing a five wave impulse from July lows taking place, with price now trading in a possible correction in black wave 4. That said we know that after every five wave movement a minimum three wave contra-trend action follows, meaning a little more weakness could come in play. Ideally GOLD will find support around the 38.20 Fibonacci ratio and continue higher.
Invalidation level is at 1333- as long as it holds we are looking bullish.
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7/31/16 - NZD/USD - LONG - "RETRACE THEN SKYROCKET"Not sure how much price is going to drop before the impulse up
Expecting price action to drop to at least 23.6% fib
if it does I want price action to break minor support turned resistance level to indicate possible move to 1.272 extension.
Stops below critical zone
Elliott Wave Analysis: Completed Correction On Gold Points LowerOn the 1h chart of Gold we are observing an idea of a flat correction that took place in red wave (B) and could now be already over, as of recent price action. As we see three sub-waves are visible in wave B), meaning that this correction is completed, and more weakness could be in store for wave C, ideally towards the 1310 mark.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: SILVER Trading Higher Aiming For 20.7Silver seems to be in a new impulsive wave, after we recognized a completed corrective retracement in blue wave 4. That said break above the upper corrective channel line could suggest higher levels in days to come, but as we know nothing moves in straight lines, so a possible temporary correction may follow.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: GBPJPY Aiming HigherGBPJPY completed a corrective set back in a bit more complex pattern with blue wave b wave triangle as a connecting wave. This move to the downside we now regard as completed and are waiting for the confirming push to the upside. We would like to see at least 142.70-143 move to confirm higher levels above recent highs.
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AUDUSD Update II: Intraday Correction In The MakingOn the intraday chart of AUDUSD, we are observing a corrective movement taking place, ideally as a three wave structure A-B-C. We believe that this consolidation can reach the 50 or 61.8 Fibonacci ratio, from where a new sell-off may occur.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Intraday View On AUDUSDFX market is slow today and it may stay that way even till the FOMC Statement and rate decision on Wednesday. Also, lets keep in mind that we are in the middle of summer, which is normally very slow period for markets.
On AUDUSD we did not get a strong fall recently so we assume that market might have already bottomed in wave 5 as an ending diagonal. If that's the case, then new three wave rally is now underway, back to 0.7550-0.7600 area which could be very interesting to join the dowtrend, which should remain in play as long as 0.7676 holds.
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USDTRY UPDATE: Possible Triangle CompletedIn our previous article about USDTRY we talked about the basic of a triangle correction pattern, talking about each leg and how many sub-waves each has, and were price will go after this complex correction is completed. That said as we see price recently broke above the wave B swing, out of this triangle pattern, which gives us an idea that wave IV could be over and more gains are already underway in black wave V. If that is the case then price may now continue even further to the upside, but with some sub-wave corrections that may take place, in our case we are talking about sub-wave 4, which can find its support around the upper corrective channel line.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Intraday GBPUSD Aiming HigherGBPUSD made a nice move up on smaller time frames at the expected yellow reversal zone. For now we see this as the beginning of a new temporary uptrend. As we see price made a nice five wave move from 1.305 area, which can indicate higher levels to follow. But nothing moves in straight lines, so a possible correction in blue wave ii can be near. If price breaks beneath the 1.305 area, then previous correction would still be in play.
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