Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD Finishing A Zig-ZagOn the 30 min chart of EURUSD, we are observing an idea of a higher degree zig-zag labeled as a-b and c that can be coming to an end, as price is now already trading near the termination point of blue wave A. That said we believe that pair may slow down a bit for a correction in wave (4) before again reaching higher levels in wave C.
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CADJPY: More Downside Could Follow On the Daily chart of CADJPY we are observing an idea of a possible new bearish cycle taking place, after a sharp fall was made labeled as blue wave 1. This three wave move up we see as a corrective retracement in the A-B and C manner with possible reversal zones around 86.99-86.450, where Fibonacci of 61.8 can act as turning point and a resistance lower.
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GBPUSD Trading In A New Intraday Bearish CycleGBPUSD is trading in attempt to trace out 5 waves down from recent highs at 1.46631. We are looking for one more push down to complete black wave 1 and then anticipate a three wave correction in black wave 2 for possible short opportunitys. Later wave 2 could reach formal wave iv swing around 1.45440 which can react as a resistance and a turning point lower into wave 3.
Invalidation level is at 1.45726, as long as it holds we are looking to the downside.
Basics Of A Complex Correction: Triangle On USDTRYAs we see on the Daily chart USDTRY is trading in a possible complex corrective pattern, knows as a Triangle. The triangle formation pattern is a continuation pattern, which means that after it's completion more upside may follow. They move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. It consist out of five sub-waves A-B-C-D and E, each having three minor legs.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDNZD In Final Stages Of An ImpulseOn 4H chart of AUDNZD we are observing a five wave drop from recent highs at 1.13343 zone, that could be near completion, as the last wave 5 is in the making. We believe that the final wave 5 can be pushing price towards the 1.618 or 2.0 Fibonacci projection levels, from where a new turn to the upside may occur.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: USDMXN In A Temporary PullbackIntraday structure of USDMXN suggest that a temporary top can be in place around 18.218, as price made a nice five wave move to the upside, from recent lows at 17.053. Therefore as we know, after every five wave move a minimum three wave retracement usually follows, as in our case recent broken channel support line could indicate a temporary bearish run, with red wave (A) or (1) already completed. Ideally price will continue towards the level of a formal wave four, where some supports can be found before again turning to the upside.
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Intraday Structure On EURUSD Indicates A Temporary CorrectionOn EURUSD we are still looking at a line chart where price action from May highs shows five waves down so three waves up are in the cards. We are expecting an A-B-C bounce back to around 1.1450-1.1480 area from where strong bears may step-in later this week.
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Elliott Wave Analysis: Bears Can Take Over On GBPUSDGBPUSD is trading sideways on hourly chart ahead of NFP, so we see a new correction unfolding. It can be a flat in wave 2) that can spike up to 1.4572 area from where bears are expected to step-in for a sharp push down into a third leg of decline. Invalidation level is at 1.4768 as long it holds, trend is down!
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USDJPY: Intraday Pullback Could Lift Prices HigherMarkets are not moving much at the moment as traders awaits FOMC Statement tomorrow. As such, price action can be slow for another 24hours, but from a technical point of view we will stick our bullish USD view.
On USDJPY below we see three waves of decline from recent high that can be wave four pullback that belongs to bullish impulsive wave three-circled which may reach 112.30-112.50 area this week, but only if 109.89 invalidation level is not breached.
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USDCHF: Intraday Impulse Reaching For 0.9750USDCHF was a real mover yesterday, gaining more strenght and making a nice impulsive structure. Notice that price went straight up after channel and 0.9650 level were broken, so we see a new five waves up in play. That said, another high is in view, for wave v) that can reach levels near 0.9750.
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Tight correction after breakout & impulsive moveThe price action on this index indicates that the buyers ares till present in the market, keeping price levetating within a small corrective channel above 17850. I am expecting another impulsive move towards the even handle around 18000. If buyers are able to push beyond that, 18150 would be up next.
EURAUD: More Weakness Could Be In The CardsEURAUD completed a corrective pullback in the ABC manner at 1.520. From this C wave highs a sharp drop down occurred on EUR while the other pair AUDUSD seems to trade more stable or even higher in recent sessions. For now a nice 3 wave move down unfolded with wave 4 in view with resistance around 1.4658-1.4711 region.
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USDCAD: Temporary Pullback In ViewWe should be tracking USDCAD very closely today ahead of the BoC statement and rate decision. On the hourly chart we are looking at impulsive decline that can continue to around 1.2600 level, but would love to see a three wave retracement up into wave 4). Ideally any bounce will slow down at 1.2850-1.2920 area.
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USDCHF: More Upside Could FollowUSDCHF is trading higher from a new low, so I am looking at potential turning point that can be very strong if we consider the shape of an ending diagonal in wave five. We however would need rally above 0.9548 to confirm a bullish case for this pair. This could look very interesting.
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AUDUSD: Bearish Reversal IncomingAUDUSD has turned down this week, through the support line from 0.7107 which is important indication for a bearish turn. As such, we assume that top can already be in place of wave red wave 5), so we need to be aware of more weakness ahead, but we still want that push beneath 0.7478 of a red wave 4) to make sure that we are on the right side. Also, notice that RSI has turned down from that divergence line which is nice indication for a bearish price action ahead. That said, that broken trendline can now turn into a resistance near 0.7660.
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USDJPY: More Weakness Could Be In StoreIf our view above is correct then JPY will gain even more in the next few sessions or even days. That said, we will keep a close eye on USDJPY for possible shorts after a pullback as leg down from March high looks like a new five wave decline in play. Our special focus should then be on black wave 4 for shorts, while 112.01 level remains in play.
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AUDUSD May Reach 0.7800 After Current Correction AUDUSD was trading slightly lower on Friday but for now a decline is slow and overlapping above 0.7600 so we see it as corrective wave 4 that can still lift pair to a new high, even up to 0.7800 this week where we would look for a top formation of a fifth wave.
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USDCAD Making A ReversalUSDCAD is rising sharply as crude oil goes straight down after NFP report. We see more weakness in play for energy markets as USD trend can be coming, so that would make ideal scenario for bullish USDCAD. A five wave rally from 1.2850 low is needed for bullish turn to be confirmed. Lets see if price can stay above 1.3052 today; if not then bears can drive pair back to the lows next week.
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USDCHF: Intraday ViewUSDCHF is falling sharply now beneath 0.9650 low so new impulse must be in place. We are looking down to 0.9600 now and then even 0.9550 but after wave four bounce that can show up in the next few sessions, as we see wave three trading near typical Fibonacci projected level of 261.8% extension measured of wave one.
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Impulsive Corrective Series Hints at potential upsideEURUSD has formed a series of impulsive and corrective moves that shows us exactly how much power the bulls currently possess. To clarify, impulsive moves tend to be "strong and fast" while corrective moves tend to be "weak and slow". This directly correlations to the strength of each party's hand. The bulls are in control right now. The push from the bulls are powerful while the pullbacks from the bears only exhibit weakness.
Earlier this week we began a corrective move downwards that looks to be drifting toward the established support at 1.106 - 1.108. This is the same level where the first corrective move met heavy buying interest. This level has proven to be reliable in the past and provides an excellent opportunity to get long for the next impulsive leg.
P.S. Beware of spikes in volatility around NFP this upcoming week.
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Bullish reaction off role reversal levelWithin a steady uptrend, price initially struggled to break above the 38.5 level. However, the immense bullish pressure resulted in a breakout to the upside and a brief intraday pullback shortly after. Price preceded to create a new high and has pulled back to that same role reversal level (now support). It has formed a notable reaction hinting at potential upside.
Conservative traders can seek to get long at current level and more aggressive traders can look to buy into another dip toward the support level.
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