4h / 2618 // structure // harmonics // impulse // IF=THEN ®FX:EURAUD
1. Double top
2. broken neck
3. found support at 1.5353$
4. 61.8% retracement / that completes a 2618 setup / double top followed by a 61.8% retracement
5. Eventual wave 4 of 5 of a corrective move
6. Wave 5 ends with a cypher pattern at daily support
7. Wave 3 of 5 of an impulse with the default ratios / wave 3 = 161% ext of wave 1
8. ascending wedge, we have a structure, surf it, eventually
Safe trades
Impulsive
USDNOK : Intraday ViewOn the Intraday chart of USDNOK we are following an idea of an complex correction, a double zig-zag that can still find lower levels before its completion. Currently we see price in red wave A), the first leg of a second zig-zag, labeled as blue wave Y-circled, that could be in final stages. A three wave rally towards 0.5 and 0.618 fibo. ratios would be treated as a correction in red wave B) that could ideally turn to the downside at 8.5975 where previous swing low can act as an resistance.
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AUDUSD : Intraday ViewAUDUSD is at the highs with five waves up within a red wave 5). Leg up from 0.7000 is looking very extended so we think that upside can be limited at 0.7230-0.7260 area. That said, traders must be aware of a pullback to lower levels, with minimum in three waves possibly even back to 0.7150 in sessions ahead. Break of wave iv low at 0.7204 would be important evidence that top of wave 5) is in.
Previous updates on this chart :
AUDUSD : More Upisde Could FollowAUDUSD is going to revisit 0.7141 it seems after sharp bounce from 0.7000 psychological support which looks like an impulsive reaction. Also notice that price made a turning point at the lower side of a parallel trendline which usually occurs at the end of a corrective move. That said, we assume that decline is corrective; a double zigzag that will cause higher prices on this pair.
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NZDUSD : Correction UnfoldingCommodity based currencies are still in consolidation patterns. On the NZDUSD chart, we see a bullish reversal in the making, now in the second leg of a three wave correction in red wave B). Corrections can at times be more complex than usually and that is why we set up a possible triangle formation pattern unfolding in wave B). A triangle pattern is a continuation pattern, that can push prices higher after its completion. That said after black wave E is finished, more upside could follow.
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AUDJPY : Correction Can Be UnderwayAUDJPY has been trading as planned, breaking the lower corrective trend line and resulting in nice impulsive manner. Because we can count five waves within this downfall from 90.74 we expect a new correction in days ahead. Recent bullish rally towards 83.539 can be blue wave A-circled, the first leg of a three wave correction, so expect more gains after wave B-Circled is completed.
Our previous updates on this pair :
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USDCAD : Intraday ViewOn USDCAD price turned sharply down last week, clearly in impulsive fashion which puts pair in bearish mode, even if just temporary. We expect more downside for sure, but will need a three wave bounce first up into a red wave B). Ideal zone for a new leg down will be around 1.4432 where former broken swing support can turn into a resistance.
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GBPCAD : Unfolding CorrectionOn GBPCAD there is a nice uptrend on a daily chart that will be expected to continue after a completed fourth wave triangle formation as shown on the 4h chart.
A Triangle is a common 5 wave pattern labeled A-B-C-D-E that moves counter-trend and is corrective in nature. Triangles move within two channel lines drawn from waves A to C, and from waves B to D. Triangles are overlapping five wave affairs that subdivide 3-3-3-3-3.
AUDJPY : Intraday ViewAUDJPY seems to be in final stages of black wave 5 and could ideally turn up in sessions ahead into a corrective retracement. Right now we think that price is trading in wave four the sub-wave of our black wave 5 and could later move even lower to around 79.00 area before turning to the upside. We are tracking an ending diagonal, that usually pushes prices higher, when it is completed.
Link to our previous updates on this pair:
AUDJPY : Bearish Momentum Could Slow DownOn the 4H chart of AUDJPY price made a nice looking impulsive structure from 88.250 area, where we labeled end of black wave 2, resulting as black wave 3. That said we now expect a three wave correction in black wave 4 to around the previous blue wave iv-circled of a lower degree, where price could then continue lower in sessions ahead.
Previous updates on this pair :
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USDJPY : Intraday ViewUSDJPY finally fell to a new low after a nice corrective bounce up into wave iv) that found resistance near 119.70. Now we are tracking a new five wave decline from that swing high which is still underway, pushing price lower within red wave v) that can hit levels around 118.00 today where price can turn back to the upside as big five wave drop from December can be coming to an end. At the same time we have to keep an eye on 117.79 level because push through that price will invalidate our impulsive wave count as red wave v) would then be longer than wave iii) which is not allowed since wave iii) is already shorter than wave i).
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GBPUSD : Downtrend ContinuationGBPUSD has turned bearish in the last two weeks after only three wave bounce from 1.4893 to 1.5240 which was a corrective move; a zigzag. As such, we are bearish on GBPUSD and will expect more weakness after any pullback. At the moment trend is still down but wave 1 appears complete so be aware of a corrective bounce up into wave 2 that can be looking for a resistance near 1.5000 next week.
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Reuters CRB Commodity Index Can Bottom In 2016 Top In this article we will look at CRB Commodity Index. This is important market to track for overall direction on commodities. What we see on the weekly chart below is a five wave of decline within wave C which means that current weakness can be coming to an end. Ideally market will turn up in 2016, but it can happen from around 28,00 or from next Fibo support at 25.00. if we are on the right track then grains, as well as oil and even gold can turn up as next year while USD trend may slow down because of negative correlation.
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GBPCAD : Correction UnderwayGBPCAD has five waves up from 1.9849 so current decline from above 2.0900 is going to be in minimum three waves. Ideally we will see a corrective a-b-c decline in wave ii that can be looking for a support near 2.0500, at the area of a former wave four.
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GBPUSD : Downtrend Continuation GBPUSD fell to a new low as expected, after only three wave bounce from 1.4893 to 1.5240 which was a corrective move called a zigzag. As such, we are bearish on GBPUSD and will expect more weakness after any pullback. At the moment we can see some rally away from the low, but it can be wave 2 that may find resistance near 1.5000 psychological level. Ideally weakness will continue down to our 138.2 and 161.8% Fibonacci targets.
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CADJPY : Intraday ViewCAD is one of the weakest currencies for the last few weeks so we would not be surprised if bounce on CADJPY will prove as just another corrective wave. We are looking at wave iv-circled headed back to former wave four, at 89-89.93 where new sell-off may occur but only if substructure from the low will be in three waves.Technically speaking this pair is bearish and current bounce can be temporary within ongoing downtrend.
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USDTRY : A Reversal Could Be In The CardsOn USDTRY we are still tracking an upward correction since November, which can be a zigzag with an ending diagonal still unfolding in wave (C). So based on short-term swings we may see a retest of 2.9600 area and then final push up to 3.0000 to complete current upward cycle. That said, price may turn down later this week.
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AUDJPY : More Weakness Could FollowOn the 4H chart of AUDJPY, we see that price has continued to go lower, breaking beneath the lower channel line. Thus suggesting that more weakness could follow in sessions ahead. That said we are now tracking black wave 3, that could ideally continue towards 83.00-84.00 area.
Our past updates on this pair :
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