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SPY H&S in ABC Correction EW 4: To Retest 24 Dec LowChart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233 low. From there it should give a V-notched spike formation and a more powerful rally- perhaps near-vertical back up to or over 260-264. Get ready for fireworks! More to come. GLTA, HNY! As always, for education and amusement not investment advice, trade at your own risk!
AMEX:SPYShort
by DaddySawbucks
26
US 30 in ABC correction: A Bull Trap; expect Lower soon!Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the intermediate wave, thus a strong double wave effect will likely terminate the countertrend positive corrective wave (4) near 23,300. (Marked by Pincher arrows) Wave 4 may not rise above wave 1, which terminated at 23824, this yields a cap on 4th wave rally. Wave 5 will be stunning and terrifying. Bulls that thought it was all over will panic and despair. Traders who short puts will be wiped out. An estimate of termination for Primary Wave 5 from Fib extensions yields Dow 19072 at the 1.618 extension. An extension lower is certainly possible. The Fib spiral for intermediate Wave (3) reveals expected floor for (5) at 20542, for a 1.272 extension, and also curtails the subsequent, expected 4th Primary Wave rally to near 22700, at Fib time projection near 19-21 Feb 2019. Do not be long in this market! Do not start selling puts for income! I wouldn't sell either puts OR calls short in this market, odds are you will get scared into big losses on both sides. Be patient; be careful! Stay away and save trading capital if in doubt. Risk:Reward very poor right now, risk very high, reward likely low. As always, this post for education and amusement only and does not constitute investment advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!
DJ:DJIShort
by DaddySawbucks
6
NDX: Nasdaq 100 A good end to the week in storeNasdaq 100 NDX Reading 2578 now - can come back to 7569 on the open but should hold hold up here if the day is to remain a good one....think it will be after a twitchy start. Marketmakers need to try shaking the tree to get some stock on board...don't think they will shake out much though - which should bode well for the rest of the day if correct. A potentially great end to the week in store... *For fastest updates in real-time please see link, top-left of main page.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by sumastardon
SPX Fifth of the Fifth Wave coming in Rare Three Drives PatternReasonably confident these wave counts are accurate. It's more art than science. Look at Mark Rivest's counts , he is even more optimistic than I am: We've got a triple combo 5-V-v wave forming off the shallow 4th wave last week. My Fibo projection for the last stage of the rally is 2937, but it could blow through that easily, won't be surprised to see it over 2950, although I really doubt it will get above 3 standard deviations from channel trend midline. I'll be taking a small but significant (perhaps 20%) long position to see if I can ride the tiger one last time. Lot of risk up in the nosebleed seats, be careful! The Three Drives pattern is rare so I've struggled to make EW fit but this pattern fits perfectly and calls for a 1.618 Fibo at 2937 on index. I expect to get there Wednesday. I usually post about US 30 but it will follow this and the Gartley Fibo for that I published already is 26268 with a B-D ratio of 1.618 and X-D 0.887. After that I'm closing longs and look for the reversal pivot signals. The downside after a monster rally like this is potentially huge and could break down 5-8% in a final leg C of the zig-zag correction that began in Jan. Most traders and investors will be shocked and amazed because they think the correction is over. The fat lady hasn't sung yet! Note to self: Next time you write about Fan Principle Projection, maybe consider taking a position, doh! Been bullfighting the whole way like a stubborn donkey. The only feeling worse than being right and then betting against yourself is watching a profit turn to loss. Last week: I got both those loving feelings! The trend is your friend. Although Sand P is trading two full standard deviations above midchannel (Modified Schiff fork brings it out nicely), and is high above 20D MA, the trend and sentiment still say higher. Could break at any time, but I reckon there are a couple of bullish days left in it and quite possibly an exhaustion gap up on last day (pretty sure last gap was an initiation gap for the 3rd of this 5th wave, it was not yet retraced... but it will be!). Ill be looking for the usual signs of topping out and the brief consolidation we typically get before the decline, will post as I see them. As always, this isn't investment advice, it's just an interesting idea for education only; you trade at your own risk, Good luck!
SP:SPXLong
by DaddySawbucks
14
Possibly charting breakout of channel and recovery of correctionExtreme bullishness prevails. Vix- dropping off to almost nothing. What looks like a tiny Elliott wave 2 formed Friday AM but quickly dissolved into bullish enthusiasm. If this is the breakout move gathering strength, then the chart shows a possible course. I believe we may have entered minor wave 3 of the V(v) 5th wave already ('third-in-fifth wave'). I lost some bank shorting into the countertrend wave today then was horrified to see the Bulls stampede up to 25740 before settling back. I do NOT recommend shorting anytime soon! Any pullbacks now will be brief and slight, no way to gain anything and all risk. Go long! Purchased Dow index calls on the slight pullback in late afternoon. Futures bulled higher after the close and I expect higher still Monday. I would not be surprised to see another 300-point gainer. Expect the SPX to break 3000 on this runup, by November or sooner. As always, this is not investment advice and all comments are only intended for education and amusement. Good luck!
DJ:DJILong
by DaddySawbucks
16
BTCUSD Bitcoin Another Potential IHS in formationBTCUSD Bitcoin Another Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders in Formation Bitcoin has held up well overnight and is now making a lazy attempt to grind higher and potentially to complete an inverse H&S with a minimum upside target at 7400 - but the biggest test will come at the neck-line at 6615 on this feed. It has to break above here on rising volume to trigger. Would rather buy dips again at this point and see how it reacts at the neck line if touched later. If it can make it to the neck-line and volume stays low it will more than likely reverse lower again from there...at least at first. The last big IHS to left of chart was a massive fail to begin with on the first test of the neckine - it went on to make a deep right shoulder but still completed to the upside in the end if you remember. The last little H&S yesterday was very true too (within 1 point anyway). But the IHS before the one shown at left of the chart was a failure. They are roughly 60%/40% successful in my experience (at least the ones mentioned here anyway) Time will tell, as always. Sorry for not updating much on Tv over the summer. However there are regular updates available for day-traders via links at top-left of main page.
Long
by sumastardon
3
BCHUSD - Long Term PredictionOn a lower degree, I posted earlier that we're most likely heading up into a third wave. This was, however, on a lower degree. I also wanted to take a look at the bigger picture since the hardfork of BCH. I believe we have finished the second wave and have started into the third wave on Cycle-degree. That would mean we're presently in wave 3 of a wave 3, so I am expecting an interesting period ahead. Extending on Cycle-degree, the target for this wave 3 would be upwards of $4.200. Usual disclaimer: Only idiots blame other people for their own mistakes and actions. 'Nuff said.
KRAKEN:BCHUSDLong
by Pvgeldrop
2
Bears (Still!) in ControlI have been posting about the BTC bears for some time now, and my opinion is still the same; the Bears have strong control. As you can see the RSI is moving into oversold territory after the recent drop from $7,400 to $7,300. However, their domination could soon find a short term end, as BTC is dropping close to long term support of 7,000 USD. I couldn't imagine this level being broken, and even it is, the price (should) work its way back above the 7,000 USD threshold. While these times make you seriously re-consider BTC, this is simply a bear market; right now they are certainly calling the shots. Increased volumes (with the beginning of the week) could increase volatility and possibly take us into a neutral market, but it is impossible to say for certain. We can only hope that BTC finds its strong support at 7,000 USD again; this would be very good news for the space as a whole. But as of now, just like the past weeks, the Bears are in control.
Short
by jgree107
BITCOIN: BTCUSD Alernative ChoiceBitcoin Bitfinex Chart Update Alternative Choice of Updates from now on: Trying to find the best/clearest format and colors for the majority isn't easy. Putting the text all over the chart is annoying for most on Tv and is only done for the benefit of Twitter users where 140 character uploads are ridiculously restrictive for those with a deeper interest in Bitcoin and its patterns and behaviour traits. This upload is the same as the last one - but with a light background. And with no text scrawled all over it. Which one do you prefer? Am going to take a vote to decide whether to stay dark/neon or go to the light side for the background color on future chart uploads. Please could you click agree on one of the two charts (this one or the last Bitcoin upload with a black background) and that way we can determine an outcome by majority - by any that are interested enough to vote at least. Any feedback on this is welcome! So far this looks like a good Reverse/Inverse Head and Shoulders in classic formation with a perfect retest of the neck-line yesterday at 7600 (even more so because no one seems to have really mentioned it - the low today here is 7600 precisely). It carries with it a minimum implied upside target at 8163 on Bitfinex. But in the near term Bitcoin has made an 07:30gmt break higher from the 7644 line as it did yesterday too -before spending 24 hours moving sideways again. The new normal. Sheesh. Every break higher is getting faded now for hours and hours after the intial impulse. 30 minutes of action followed by 24 hours of continuation. Just like fishing on a slow day :( But this break today is still potentially significant. We now have a technical battle emerging between the power of the RHS on upside and the power of the upper dynamic of a loosely defined rising wedge-like formation on the downside, both in opposition to each-other, one a positive force and the other negative. So we can spend quite some time today in yet another continuation pattern with support at 7700 and extending to the lower parallel of the newly forming pattern from the intra-day high. Both these opposing patterns are powerful. Which pattern will prove stronger ? Well, so long as the dynamic which forms the lows of the right shoulder holds up on retests today the likelihood is that eventually the break will be higher and not lower. If so other than buying the dip to 7700 and below to 7768 and maybe to the 7644 line the only other option is to buy the break above the upper small falling dynamic from the intra- day high when and if it comes later on - need a volume spurt to follow it to know it's good - but the pattern is still overall positive at this point and the uppermost risng dynamic which capped the high today so far, is beginning to lose its power and on the 5th strike it should break too. That will open the way for a RHS to take control and begin to drive price towards the upside target at 8163. Returning to the downside Bitcoin has to break below the risng dynamic underpinning the lows of the right shoulder of the RHS to start flipping longs out back to 7644 and if this then fails to the neck-line itself again at 7600. This level must hold up throughout the day from here. Any failure by more than 15 points will flip Bitcoin back into bear hands, signalling ultimate failure of the RHS and trigger a short from this point with stops 50 points or so higher if struck later.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
19
6977 could be our bottomya boi just learned trend based fib retracements and i was practicing on a coinbase chart for BTC and saw this. ..so yeah. short into long might be a good play here, however the price is respecting that trend line that a lot of people are looking at... So in other words. The market is exactly at a point where reckless longs and shorts will get absolutely R E K T. If you play these levels be careful, set your stops near previous local highest highs and lowest lows (depending on your trade. local highs for shorts, local lows for longs.) set a buy order somewhere around 6977 for potential fun times for the next week 6950 if you're trying to 100x catch a knife/be a hero (not recommended) 6890 super safe for liq's super greedy for a buy, you may get missed. OR you may have bragging rights for the next year. Don't listen to me at all if you have any doubt whatsoever in what i'm saying. Trade your plan, and, once you're in it stick to it. much love. don't get rekt.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by PatrickOuch
EURUSD Still Trapped in a Relentless Down-Trend - target 1.17218th May EURUSD Update EUR made the counter-rally move back to the upper parallel precisely at 1.1978 before falling away again. Having failed to hold up at the 1.1910 level it is falling further as DXY continues its long-predicted rally. EUR should fall to 1.1815 and then bounce to the upper parallel again before falling away further still to 1.1721 as the month progresses. Any bounce back to the upper parallel can be still be viewed as another selling opportunity until the down-side target is achieved. Whilst EUR remains trapped within this clearly defined down-trend this pair remains a one way bet. The trend has to get broken at some point though - only then do we switch back to long again on this pair. Just not yet awhile.
Short
by sumastardon
1
DXY: A Tearway Move - in Context DXY Dollar Index The dollar has been been on a tearaway move ever since breaking its longer term downtrend at the 90.42 level. By 'tearaway' in DXY terms that means 2%. Huge ! Over 11 calendar days or so. The same as Bitcoin moves in 45 minutes. This is as exciting as DXY gets. And people seriously trade this for a living. Some have to but in a world of choice you can do the math - and choose. It takes all sorts to make a world ! Since breaking above and then retesting the top of the range structure at 90.93 DXY has surged up the right side of the chart as fast as fell down the same space on the left side of the chart. It's now testing the next line of resistance at the 91.92 level after an intra-day high 3 points higher. It should consolidate a little here before breaking higher still to test the 92.55-92.64 range. Over the more medium term DXY should hit 94.03. Until it does the dollar is likely to remain a buy dips market.
TVC:DXYLong
by sumastardon