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Mind the Indian Stock Market!The Indian Market has seen some an insane frenzy of bullishness in recent weeks. Favourable PMI numbers and overjoy about expanding economies have led the gamblers to go north like nobody's business in the last few days. Errh.. they forgot about supply chain bottlenecks. 🙄 The interesting thing about this position is what it 'makes'' you think - or is that 'feel'? I don't know what's going to happen. Let me say that again, I don't know what's going to happen. The reality is that the Indian economy is in dire straits at the grass roots. The further excitement travels from reality, the greater is the eventual pain. For new traders, have you noticed that when you get stopped out price tends to reverse just a few points after? Then you shout expletives when price follows your original direction and you get left behind. It's soooo infuriating! 😠👿 Why? Price has a higher probability of reversal at peaks and troughs on any time frame. The trouble is setting your stop loss with enough elasticity to catch it, whilst avoiding FOMO. This is not advice - it is experience shared. (Mind my brutal disclaimer below). Price usually reverses at a point much greater than we anticipate, even after all the technical analysis. That's been happening a whole lot, especially in the pandemic period. So - positions like this one on the daily Indian charts are very difficult to short. Keep in mind that shorting is always more difficult in Stock indices than going long. The great thing about short-selling indices (around this time) is that if they drop, they have a long way to go. So no rush. Small position sizes with very wide affordable stop losses are one answer to the ridiculous volatility. When a deep trend develops on the 15 to 30 min time frame that's the one to watch. I don't fight a daily time frame! Both the Indian and German markets have recently decided to track the USTECH100. That's pretty dangerous gambling. How? When the crash (>50% correction) starts we know it's going to start with TECH. P/E ratios are wild in the tech sector, and totally unrealistic. But of course it depends on which guru you believe. Some recall what happened in the Dotcom era. Some have forgotten. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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by Captain_Walker
3
The Indian Channel - popcorn ready? This looks like a channel, so I say it is a channel. The interesting thing about channels is that you will almost never get all price points on the lines. Price can break up and out then return in, or break down and out and come back in, or break totally out and stay out. But it's an opportunity for those who plan carefully. Stay safe. Don't get the Indian variant of the virus. Don't splurge your money. Blah blah! LOL. 😁😂 Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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by Captain_Walker
Mars next stop for the Indians?If you thought the DJI was overvalued, have a look at the India50. This thing has outperformed loads of other stock indices, even rivalling the Brazilian Bovespa. They've certainly passed the moon. Could the next stop be Mars? Well I think a significant correction is well overdue. Of course, I don't know when that might happen. The show could start with a 5 to 15 min trend south. So, I'm all eyes on this one. The recent pump in the last 2 days was mainly about the DJI pump. Oh yes, markets around the world draw confidence from the DJI, as misplaced as that is. So now we have one air market filling up on air from another market. That's looking for trouble. Attacking this for a short means I'm setting up alerts for 5 to 15 min trends south. It's already heavily bullish. I don't like going long at the top of markets. Strange things tend to happen there. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
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by Captain_Walker
9