Inauguration
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Let's dive into this recent development where the current U.S. president has launched his official meme coin, along with his wife’s official meme coin. We’ll explore the technical and fundamental aspects of this topic.
🎤 Inauguration Summary
Before starting today’s analysis, let’s briefly review the key points from the inauguration speech:
Economy & Entrepreneurship :
Trump emphasized the need to strengthen the U.S. economy, cut taxes for businesses, and support entrepreneurship, with the goal of creating more job opportunities and boosting the economy.
National Security:
Trump stressed the importance of protecting the country's security and addressing both internal and external threats, including terrorism and cyberattacks, pledging to strengthen the U.S. military and intelligence forces.
Individual Freedoms:
Trump talked about protecting individual freedoms and reinforcing the rights of American citizens. He promised that his administration would support individuals' rights and civil liberties.
Immigration & Borders:
One of the key issues Trump highlighted was immigration. He called for stronger U.S. borders and stricter laws on illegal immigration.
📉 15-Minute Chart
Looking at the 15-minute chart, there’s limited data for technical analysis, so it’s hard to draw any conclusions. Binance currently has the best chart for this coin.
Last night, coinciding with the inauguration, we saw a 46% correction on the 1-hour candle, which led to the liquidation of many positions. It’s safe to say most futures positions got liquidated.
For now, I’m not planning to buy or enter a position on this coin. However, if you are interested in purchasing, I would suggest waiting for a breakout above 61.71, and I recommend exiting below 43.97.
The tokenomics of this project are risky, and I believe there are other reasons why Trump introduced it.
🚀 The Bigger Picture
From my perspective, this move is quite beneficial for the cryptocurrency industry. It shifts the focus from just Bitcoin to altcoins, encouraging investors to diversify into them.
Additionally, because this coin can only be purchased with fiat or on the Solana network, it has led to the entry of a new wave of users into the crypto market. This could continue, much like the hamster trend or Telegram bots.
In terms of market capitalization, this coin performed remarkably well, reaching the 13th position and becoming the second-largest meme coin. It’s currently ranked 4th in 24-hour trading volume, which could be a good opportunity if you're looking to generate liquidity.
🔒 Tokenomics and Network Performance
From a tokenomics standpoint, the coin is a bit weak, as 80% of the tokens are held by the project team, including Mr. Trump. Soon, 40% of these tokens will be unlocked, which will likely create significant selling pressure. However, in terms of market cap, its performance has been extraordinary.
I also have some criticism regarding the Solana network. Despite being a crypto enthusiast, Solana's network outages and performance issues in transactions show that the crypto space is still not ready for high transaction volumes. The industry needs to find a way to simplify networks and tokens so that ordinary users can easily enter the market.
📊 Capital Management Advice
If you want to be part of this space and invest in this coin or other meme coins, it’s crucial to follow strict capital management rules:
Avoid Futures Trading:
Due to the high volatility of these coins, you’ll almost certainly get liquidated if you trade futures.
Be Realistic:
Don’t expect to become rich overnight. Avoid using money you can’t afford to lose never invest money from selling your car or house.
HODL with Caution:
If you plan to hold this token, make sure the amount you invest is money you can afford to lose. The amount will vary depending on your lifestyle.
Verify Contract Addresses:
Always double-check the contract address or the exchange. Social media trends can lead to scams, and scammers may try to sell you fake tokens that will never return your money.
Be Mindful of FOMO:
While Trump’s token has increased by 5000% recently, it’s unlikely that it will turn $50 into $1000 right now. For that to happen, the market cap would need to increase by 20 times, which is highly unlikely. So, be cautious about the FOMO in the social media space.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Bitcoin: Don't be blind to the world (Trump inauguration)Regular readers will know that we avoid fundamental analysis In these reports - we stick to the price.
But that doesn’t mean being blind to the world around us.
On Monday January 20, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as US President.
I’m sure many of you have your political views about Trump - but just keep those away from your trade ideas!
The crypto market - and Bitcoin especially - has been on a huge rally since Trump spoke at a Bitcoin conference in favour of cryptocurrencies last year.
There’s a chance President Trump could mention Bitcoin in his inaugural speech but even if he doesn’t, the prospect of favourable regulation is broadly positive for Bitcoin - or if we’re more honest - the idea of better regulation could be enough justification to keep the crypto bull run going for now.
Bitcoin
On the weekly chart, we can see Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has been trading sideways around the $100,000 level - with roughly $90,000 as support.
But bigger picture it’s a huge uptrend and we want to trade in line with the trend (as always)
Importantly - it just closed the week back over the critical $100K mark - and it did so with a bullish engulfing candlestick that engulfed the previous 3 weeks.
As a reminder - where the week closed is more important than the high or low of the week - and a weekly close is more significant than a daily close. You can think of the closing price as the price that everybody agreed was the right price for that period.
The final missing piece to the bullish breakout is a weekly close at a new record high.
On the daily chart we are watching the broken trendline as well as the $100k level as support that needs to hold if the breakout is going to happen soon.
But while the price trendline is not especially reliable with only two ‘touches’ or swing points the broken RSI trendline is much more significant and shows a big pickup in momentum that will be needed if the price is to break out.
If the breakout does happen, the first barrier that needs to break is $110,000 but after that $120k then even $130k could come quite quickly given Trump’s inauguration this week.
But - as always - that’s just how my team and I are seeing things, what do you think?
Share your ideas with us - OR - send us a request!
Send us an email or message us on social media.
cheers!
Jasper
America's 500 correct Trump inauguration and second termDonald Trump's inauguration for his second term will shake the market to adapt to his fringe trade policies. The upcoming Trump Administration already announced to impose tariffs which will advance the cause for more domestic production, but as the general cost of goods will rise, so will inflation. The first correction of the market will set S&P500 below its 200-day average. As it is unclear which role the most influential billionaire of the world, Elon Musk, will have on government policies, the market will at least frown on this uncertainty, if not react to his announcements, that "it needs to get worse before it gets better" with overall sellout.
Meanwhile, major trading counterparts in the world, namely Mexico and the EU prepared for a second term of the loathed-by-leaders protectionist. China, currently in unsettling nationwide economy cooldown, braces for upcoming conflicts with the sole remaining 20th century super-power, as the inevitable Battle for Taiwan would be the longed-for distraction and a cause to get the increasingly incredulous chinese people behind the ever-scrutinized leader Xi Jinping. The conflict will further impact the High Tech industry of the west, as despite measures to recess from dependencies with the powerful Chinese economy, certain resources and products are not yet available anywhere else. Leading analysts don't see a conflict with China happening for another 2 years, opening the chance for China's economy to recover and further depress the urge of its leading powers to find a unifying cause.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 1/20/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:MNQH2021
- High - 13056.25
- Low - 13028.25
Evening Stats
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 198.73
- Volume: 17k
- Open Int: 233k
- Trend Grade: Bullish
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range)
- Long: 13337
- Short: 12415
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
S&P Ranging Before InaugurationThe S&P 500 has rejected highs. We have been calling this out for weeks. We appear to have a double top as well at 3825. It did find support at 3758, which is a technical and Fibonacci level, and now is finding support from 3793. The Kovach OBV does seem to be edging up, but nothing to suggest a breakout today. It could go either way at this point: to retest highs or lower levels 3758 or 3737. But don't anticipate too much action in stocks until after the inauguration tomorrow.
NZDJPY Wave Count: Technical + Fundamental AnalysisAfter this bearish impulse, it is likely that if the entry level is taken out we may see further downside. The EW count suggests the same. Also, with the inauguration occurring today, there is a possibility for a "risk off" economic environment to take the reigns which would mean a drop in riskier currencies like the kiwi and a rise in the safer yen. Cheers
Pre-Inauguration TradeNext Week would be much violent for any currency pair from both Trump's Inauguration day and Important US Economic data in focus :)
Without Important Economic Data from Japan implys most of the price movement in USD/JPY is driven by U.S. Dollar Index.. Thus, this brings us to big opportunities especially USD/JPY pair
Analysis
Abrupt Increase in price level to 116.157 is expected before or at January 17th (Monday-Tuesday)
This presents us first opportunity to short with great risk-reward ratio in short-term.
After that, price should be dropping down to form Bullish Three Drives at 112.400-112.700 with 78.6% Retracement and 127.2% Extension Channel. This should take around 3-4 days expected before Trump's Inauguration day
At Inauguration day, Psychologically bias-thinking that USD would be strengthen to welcome positive momentum in stock market, Corresponding with Target Price of Bullish Three Drive at around 117.465
Pre-Inauguration TradePre-Inauguration Trade should be much violent for any currency pair
Especially USDJPY
Furthermore, an upcoming week is full of important economic US news on focus. Without Japan's important economic announcement, it is likely that USDJPY will be mostly driven by US Dollar Index force.
So, big opportunity Next Week!
Analysis
Expect Bullish Three Drives with 78.6% Retracement and 1.272% Extension
Target Price 116.157 should be abruptly reached at or before January 17th
while Expected quickly Drop to 112.400-112.700 price level just before Trump's Inauguration day
At and after Trump's Inauguration psychologically think stock should rise to welcome new world leader, so reasonably corresponding to Bullish Three Drives Price Target at 117.500
Oil - Higher Weekly Low?Amidst the OPEC agreements, Trump's inauguration which will likely increase for oil demand and production and the January typical decline in demand, I am still of mind that prices will find higher prices in the first, maybe second quarter of 2017 but will first seek to secure a higher weekly low support price.
I have been looking for a retrace to the 48.36 level, bottom of the upper weekly range; however think it's very possible we also see a retest of the upper .25 of the lower weekly range at approximately 45.9-46.4 level (which has been a strong weekly inflection since April) after which I believe oil prices will continue their rally into mid April at the 56-58 level.
I am currently short and if prices do in fact test the 48.4 level I think a quick swing back up to the 52.4-53 level is likely.
I am not including a specific strategy here as this is intended to point out potential strong pivot levels.
Good trading all!