SPY Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SPY went up again
To retest a wide horizontal
Resistance level of 551.00$
And as the political situation
Remains unstable we are
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a local move down
Sell!
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Index
US30 WILL FALL|SHORT|
✅DOW JONES is set to retest a
Strong resistance level above at 41,000
After trading in a local uptrend for some time
Which makes a bearish pullback a likely scenario
With the target being a local support below at 40,000
SHORT🔥
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DXY at Make-or-Break Level Ahead of Trade Deal UncertaintyGood day Traders,
Take a moment to go through my outlook of DXY.
Currently, DXY is moving within a clearly defined ascending channel, showing a short-term bullish correction after the sharp drop seen last week. Price is respecting the channel's boundaries, making higher highs and higher lows, characteristic of a pullback phase in a broader bearish move.
However, attention is now drawn to the resistance zone around 103.80 – 104.19 zone. This area coincides with:
1. Top of the channel (confluence resistance)
2. A harmonic pattern completion zone or reversal block
3. A previous structural support-turned-resistance area
In my view, the recent price action suggests a potential reversal at or just above this zone, leading to a new bearish leg that could see DXY breaking below the current trend channel and targeting sub-102.56 and 102.00 levels.
From the fundamentals, it appears that optimism around a trade deal is helping the USD recover short-term. The market may be pricing in hope, not reality. If sentiment shifts, or deal details (between US and China) disappoint, a swift reversal is highly likely—aligning with the anticipated turn near 104.00 from the technicals.
I think this makes the current zone a high-alert area for dollar bulls and bears alike. A fake-out to the upside into this supply zone could trap late buyers before the larger macro and technical forces push the dollar back down. By implication, we then expect to see a slight drop then rally on EURUSD, GBPUSD etc.
Cheers and Happy trading!
VIX - Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity?Extreme fear in the market: a unique opportunity?
An analysis of the most significant
VIX spikes (1987-2025) and subsequent stock market performance.
The VIX (Volatility Index) is an indicator that reflects the level of fear or uncertainty in the market based on expectations of volatility in the S&P 500 Index.
The VIX's 118% surge from April 4 to April 7, 2025 was the fifth largest 3-day surge in market history.
This surge 🚀 reflects the high level of uncertainty that has developed in the markets.
It is very difficult to make informed investment decisions during such periods.
But we can rely on historical patterns.
After the 20 largest VIX spikes, the S&P 500 Index has consistently delivered exceptional returns:
- After 1 year: 16.5% (vs. 12% in normal periods)
- After 3 years: 45.9% (vs. 39.5% in normal periods)
- After 5 years: 83.0% (vs. 74.4% in normal periods)
The difference in returns over the 4 years is 10.2% above average.
Over the past 40 years, there has only been one negative return (the 2007 spike before the financial crisis), while most extreme fear events have become outstanding buying opportunities. For example, the August 2011 spike was followed by an impressive 117% return over the next five years.
When market panic reaches extreme levels, institutional capital typically steps in against retail sales, setting the stage for stronger long-term growth. History shows that these moments of maximum fear often represent optimal entry points for patient investors.
It is essential to realize that historical patterns do not always hold true in the future. Each crisis has unique characteristics and causes that can lead to different outcomes.
These statistics provide good mathematical expectations, not guarantees.
This has always been the case in the market, and proper handling of math expectations and risk management are the foundations of profitable strategies.
Best regards EXCAVO
_____________________
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US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
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NIKKEI Long From A Massive Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NIKKEI stock index has
Lost almost 27% from the ATH
Which means it is clearly oversold
And the index is about to retest
A massive horizontal support level
Of 30,000 which is a great spot
For going long on the index
And even if the support gets
Broken I would still hold the
Position expecting a rebound
Buy!
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DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping/Day)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
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Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout (103.300) then make your move - Bullish profits await!"
however I advise to Place Buy stop orders above the Moving average (or) Place buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level.
📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs.
Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a buy stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊."
📍 Thief SL placed at the recent/swing low level Using the 1H timeframe (101.700) Day / Scalping trade basis.
📍 SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
🏴☠️Target 🎯: 105.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
💰💸💵DXY / Dollar Index Market Heist Plan (Scalping / Day Trade) is currently experiencing a bullishness,., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇
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⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
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I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
DXY PULLBACK EXPECTED|SHORT|
✅DXY surged again to retest the resistance of 103.400
But it is a strong key level
So I think that there is a high chance
That we will see a bearish pullback and a move down
SHORT🔥
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DAX Is Oversold! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DAX fell down sharply
But will soon hit a
Horizontal support level
Of 20,230 and after the
Retest we will be expecting
A strong bullish rebound
Buy!
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DAX RISKY LONG|
✅DAX is going down to retest
A horizontal support of 20,400
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that we will see a rebound
And a move up from the level
Towards the target above at 20,800
LONG🚀
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META Screaming CAUTION!The hardest thing is to call a short in a recession-proof stock, especially in the tech space. However, only so many dollars are available in the advertisement space, and it can't go up forever. Make this excuse at any price.
As such, I rely on the chart screaming CAUTION!
Again like most of my trade setups, this is a simple trade.
Bulls should take their profits and smile.
Bears short as high as possible with the internet to short more should it form a double top.
The chart has spoken. Like it or not.
Remember I am a macro trader so don't expect tomorrow to play out. My trades take time but have much bigger moves. ;)
MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION!While only 36% of stocks are over the 20-day MA, they are nowhere near oversold conditions. As such, there is still room for the downside.
While this indicator is only suitable for short-term trading, tomorrow new making event could push markets way lower.
While I would not suggest trading news events. I know some do, as such bottom picking is not advisable.
CAUTION!
NIKKEI LONG FROM SUPPORT|
✅NIKKEI went down to retest a horizontal support of 35,250
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 36,093
LONG🚀
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S&P500: Recovery has started and the next stop is the 1D MA50.S&P500 is marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.213, MACD = -61.280, ADX = 30.163) as it's recovered from Friday's bearish sentiment and already crossed above the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This rebound made Monday's low a Double Bottom and since the 1D RSI is on a HL bullish divergence, we expect a strong 1 month rally to start. The first target is the 1D MA50 slightly over the 0.5 Fib mark (TP1 = 5,835) and after a small correction, the 0.786 Fib (TP2 = 6,000), which is also the top of the 5 month Bull Flag.
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SPX500 Long at 55301. All timeframes are massively oversold due to the huge sell-off on Friday night
2. It is the start of the week, and it opened at the low, which tends to mean there would be some strength to go up
3. Unfortunately, I cannot check if there is a harmonic pattern due to technical difficulties.
4. This is at excellent support as it is at the year low
5. There is a lot of divergence due to this not being a long consolidation try to exit at M15 overbought
6. Stop loss below 5500
DXY Monthly Analysis: Key Support Holding, Bullish Move Ahead?📊 DXY Monthly Chart Analysis (March 27, 2025)
Key Observations:
Current Price Action:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 104.267, with notable resistance ahead.
Price is consolidating within a key demand zone (~102.5–104) after rejecting higher levels.
Technical Levels:
Support Zone: 100.2–104 (Highlighted in purple)
Resistance Zone: 112.5–114.7 (Highlighted in purple)
Major Resistance: 114.77 (Previous high, acting as a supply zone)
200-MA Support: Located below current price, offering a long-term bullish confluence.
Market Structure:
Price remains in a higher time-frame bullish trend but is experiencing a correction.
The "BOSS" level (Break of Structure) suggests a prior bullish breakout.
If the demand zone holds, a bullish continuation towards 112.5–114.7 is possible.
Projected Move:
A bounce from 102–104 could trigger a rally toward the upper resistance zone (~112.5).
A break below 100.2 could indicate a shift in trend and further downside.
Conclusion:
DXY is at a critical decision point. Holding the current support zone (~102–104) could fuel a bullish continuation toward 112–114, while a breakdown below 100.2 would weaken bullish momentum.
SP500US Markets has pulled back nicely, It now provides a wonderful opportunity to get back into the market, I expect another drop to take the previous low set couple of days ago. April tends to be a good month for indices as the first quarter closer and rebalancing occured.
my plan would be to buy the SP500 and ride the trend