US100 - Potential Bearish Reversal Soon!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
US100 is sitting around a strong round number 15k so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: US100 is forming a channel in red but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we will be waiting for a third swing to form around it. (projection in purple)
Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form then sell after a momentum candle close below it. (gray area)
Until the sell is activated, US100 would be overall bullish and can still trade higher.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Index-dxy
US500 - Potential Bearish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
US500 is sitting around the upper brown trendline so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: US500 is forming a channel in blue but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we will be waiting for a third swing to form around it. (projection in purple)
Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form then sell after a momentum candle close below it. (gray area)
Until the sell is activated, US500 would be overall bullish and can still trade higher.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
NQ1! - Potential Bearish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
NQ1! is sitting around its ATH and 15k round number so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: NQ1! is forming a symmetrical triangle in red but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we will be waiting for a third swing to form around it. (projection in purple)
Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form then sell after a momentum candle close below it. (gray area)
Until the sell is activated, NQ1! would be overall bullish and can still trade higher.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
US30 - Potential Bearish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
US30 is sitting around its ATH so we will be looking for sell setups on lower timeframes.
on M30: US30 is forming a channel in blue but the lower trendline is not valid yet, so we will be waiting for a third swing to form around it. (projection in purple)
Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form then sell after a momentum candle close below it. (gray area)
Until the sell is activated, US30 would be overall bullish and can still trade higher.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Dollar going from strength to strength...As Westpac puts it, the Dollar is effectively in a win-win situation, as it retains a firm underlying bid when sentiment turns bearish due to heightened concerns about the adverse impacts of this so called Delta variant, but also during periods of less anxiety and when attention switches back to the more hawkish-leaning FOMC alongside risks that inflation may not be transitory.
Hence, Buck bulls are eager to buy into any dips and apparently getting increasingly impatient given ascending lows and highs in the index to 93.194 so far off a 92.951 base compared to 93.172-92.799 and 93.041-92.627 ranges yesterday and on Monday respectively.
Looking ahead, only weekly MBA mortgage applications are scheduled on the US data front, but Usd 24 bn 20 year issuance seems to be in focus as Treasury yields back up pretty sharply and the curve flips into re-steepening mode.
US30 - Dow Jones - My Trading Plan in 3 minsHello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
Here is the top-down analysis for US30, feel free to request any pair/instrument or ask any questions in the comment section below.
Best of luck!
Only one day left for the Dollar to avoid any residual month...Only one day left for the Dollar to avoid any residual month end selling, and so far its holding above support as it continues to counter bearish rebalancing signals and the ongoing dovish overtones imparted by the Fed with some assistance from a back-up in yields and curve re-steepening.
However, the Buck is also benefiting at the expense of others and a degree of consolidation or corrective price action approaching the end of a 4th successive week of depreciation. Looking at the DXY as a proxy, a marginal new recovery high from sub-90.500 lows in the index was forged at 90.815 after the Euro filled remaining bids in to 1.2100 and tripped a layer of stops on the back of weaker than forecast prelim.
However, EUR/USD has found a base nearby and 2.1 bn option expiries at the round number could be keeping the headline pair underpinned alongside bids in the EUR/GBP cross around 0.8700 that may be due to RHS fix and/or month end demand.
Accordingly, Sterling is facing a task to retain grip of 1.3900 vs the Buck after topping out below yesterday’s 1.3975+ peak and failing to breach a double top against the Euro circa 0.8674, irrespective of Pound positives in the form of a super strong Nationwide UK house price survey and upbeat Lloyds business barometer.
The currency markets are relatively sedate...The currency markets are relatively sedate and orderly as evidenced by the index hugging a tight line either side of 92.000 amidst relative calm in bond land after recent antics and last Thursday’s particularly aggressive bear-steepening that propelled benchmark yields to and through psychological levels. Indeed, the DXY is meandering between 92.155-91.872 and most of the Greenback’s G10 rivals are rangebound awaiting a catalyst to break one way or the other that could come from data, events and/or speakers today, but may be more likely later in the week given up to date and forward looking surveys like the preliminary Markit PMIs and Ifo. Upside anticipated over the remain days of this month.
This is why the DXY has NOT confirmed the Bullish Momentum yetGood afternoon traders, today we bring you our analysis on the U.S Dollar Index, since we consider that it is making an important movement, and it has been on an interesting behavior the last week.
🔸As we know, the USD has been gaining strong, and that was reflected in many pairs.
🔸If we look at the chart, the price faced a huge demand zone, where every time it was at that price level, there was a strong reaction. And this time it was not the exception.
🔸This rebound has as its first stop zone the broken Ascending Trendline. And this is why we say that the movement is not yet confirmed, since, if we analyze the long-term behavior, this can be a simple pullback to continue the downtrend.
🔸What we would do, as a safety measure to not to trade a noisy area, would be to wait for a breakout of the previous low, and this way the continuation of the trend would be confirmed.
🔸And, in case this does not happen, to trade in the bullish direction, we will wait for the price to enter the channel again.
The Buck bounced across the board to extend gains...What a Monday. Only a relatively short-lived and shallow pull-back in DXY terms before the Buck bounced across the board to extend gains and the index probed beyond last Friday’s post-NFP peak within a 91.840-92.303 range. Technical analysts are now looking at Fib resistance around 92.450 – 23.6% retracement of the move from 102.97 to 89.20 - ahead of the next half round number as US Treasury yields rebound and the curve re-steepens into supply and the House vote on President Biden’s Usd 1.9 tn relief bill on Tuesday. More immediately, employment trends for February and January wholesale trade.
Dollar smile is ready to start in Spring?Morning folks,
Here is a kind of long-term view on Dollar Value. Our last forecast was in 2011 and there were a lot of bullish signs right before the smile - perfect "222" Buy and bullish DiNapoli grabber on quarterly chart. No need to say that smile has started right in time showing outstanding rally within 4 years.
Now we're coming to new Smile. According to our fundamental view the global changes in economy are started already but they should become evident in April-May. Particular at this time Dollar Index should complete long-term 87.30 target, form "222" Buy" again and then new Smile era might be started?
Currently we do not talk on upside target, but mostly on the moment where dollar could start the rally and when it could put under pressure other currencies, gold and bit later stocks as well - 87.30, April-May...
Possible further downside ideas on the horizon...Aside from all the above, rangebound trade on US Veteran’s Day is keeping the Dollar in check for the most part vs most majors as the DXY hovers below 93.000 within a 92.969-607 band eyeing broad risk sentiment and further post-US Presidential election developments. Possible further downside ideas on the horizon.
Fed manipulates dollar and euroAfter FED started buying American stocks (including junk American corporate bonds) SP500 became a zombie and so USD and EUR since Dollar Index / EURUSD are strongly correlated with SP500. You can see the artificial zombious SP500 build up, and the same replicated bricks in Euro. This is not "trading". Wherever FED decides to drive the stocks market, so euro and dollar will go. The entire forex lags after SP500 - www.researchgate.net
Dollar index: dragon patternI have been posting this gap breakout earlier but now, after adding half yearly opening range and A up pivot breakout, things become more clear.
Dragon pattern. Dragon head, 2 humps and now a long tail started to form. It will go up to the target and will draw waving dragon's tail-end there.
Look up for dragon pattern on google to understand.
For educational purposes.
Dollar might flyAfter applying half yearly ACD to Dollar Index a breakout becomes clearly visible..
In cases of of A pivot breakout on half yearly ACD , moves are often massive.
Triangle or pennant continuation pattern is visible at the A-pivot breakout level.
Price is likely to move the size of a pennant pole at least.