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DOLLAR_INDX H4 25 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 25 March 2024 The Dollar Index continued its upward trajectory for a second consecutive week, bolstered by the robust performance of the US economy and heightened expectations of interest rate hikes. The potential yield disparity between the US Dollar and other major currencies remained a significant driver, underpinning the greenback's strength. Moreover, the Fed's upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the United States instilled confidence among investors, further reinforcing positive sentiment towards the US economic outlook. The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. Resistance level: 104.45, 104.95📉 Support level:104.00, 103.65📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx
Divergence Unveiled: Ibovespa & S&P500“Emerging markets conclude 2023 on better note than developed markets” – S&P Global Market Intelligence. How much of this has been reflected in the respective market indices? Figure 1: Ibovespa and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures Figure 1 presents a retrospective view of the Ibovespa Index Futures (IND1!) and E-mini S&P500 Index Futures (ES1!) since the onset of the pandemic. While the indices initially traded in tandem, a noticeable deviation emerged since the middle of 2021. The IND Futures to ES Futures ratio testing long-term resistance at 25 raises questions about a potential rebound or breakout to the downside. Let's delve into the methodologies of these two index futures to gain insights into their recent divergence. Index Methodology and Weightings Figure 2: Top 10 Constituents of Both Indices Examining the top 10 constituents of both indices in Figure 2, we observe fundamental differences. Despite their similarities as float-weighted benchmarks for large-cap stocks in their respective countries, the Ibovespa Index comprises 86 stocks compared to the SP500's 500. This fundamental distinction results in a significantly larger total weight for the top 10 constituents of the Ibovespa Index, suggesting that IND future prices are more susceptible to the performance of its leading components. Ibovespa Driven by Global Commodity Prices Figure 3: Ibovespa vs Brent Crude Oil, Nickel, and Iron Ore Dominated by the Energy, Financials and Basic Materials sector, the combined weight of VALE SA and PETROBRAS holds significant influence. While VALE SA is the largest producer of iron ore and nickel in the world, PETROBRAS is heavily involved in the petroleum industry. Their earnings are likely to increase following an increase in the traded prices of iron ore, nickel, and crude oil, respectively. Positive correlations with Nickel, Iron Ore, and Crude Oil Futures prices indicate periods marked in grey boxes since the pandemic, where fluctuations in commodity futures potentially explain observed patterns in IND prices. Figure 4: Global Commodity Index Hence, given IND1!'s demonstrated sensitivity to commodities, understanding the general trajectory of commodities becomes paramount. The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) provides an overview for commodities. In Figure 4, the GSCI acts as a good proxy for the commodities cycle and direction, here we observe a 30% correction from the peak, erasing some of the gains derived from the post-pandemic recovery and the Russia-Ukraine war. However, since the beginning of 2024 we see signs of a potential trend higher with the index starting to creep higher. Figure 5: Bullish Trends Observed on Multiple Commodities Is this just part of the usual price volatility for commodities or is the move higher significant? A detailed scrutiny of recent price movements in Figure 5 reveals a bullish outlook for all three previously examined commodities, relevant especially to the Ibovespa Index. The breakout from an ascending triangle in Brent Crude Oil Futures, the price rebound from historical support in Nickel Futures, and the testing of the upside trendline in Iron Ore Futures collectively indicate a prevailing bullish bias, perhaps suggesting more to the broader move higher for commodities. Are Lower Rates Better? Figure 6: Changes in Rates and USDBRL on Ibovespa The Financial Sector, with significant weight in the index, is examined. While higher interest rates expand profit margins of financial institutions, extended periods of tight monetary policy can expose vulnerabilities and increase loan losses. Since August 2023, Brazil’s Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee, Copom, has had five consecutive rate cutes up to a cumulative total of 250 basis points while the market continues to alter bets on the Fed’s first rate cut. Intriguingly, while interest rate parity would suggest a strengthening USDBRL, the observed weakening suggests a unique deviation. Furthermore, as the Fed gains more confidence, evidenced by each data print, the likelihood of impending rate cuts becomes more apparent. Conversely, the outlook for further cuts by Copom is less clear due to persistently high inflation. Interpreting these factors collectively points towards a weaker USDBRL and a correspondingly stronger IND1!; as suggested by the historical inverse relationship between Ibovespa and USDBRL observed in Figure 6. Additional Support for Ibovespa Figure 7: Brazil’s Growing Net Exports The rolling average of the net exports, although exhibiting some degrees of seasonality, seems to be a leading indicator of the IND prices. The reversal and positive trend in the rolling average of net exports since 2015 aligns with the climbing IND prices, indicating substantial support from Brazil's trade balance. EM Still an Attractive Option Figure 8: Comparing Both Index Futures’ RSI Figure 8 brings to light yet another noteworthy point, using the ES1! as a proxy for the Developed Markets (DM) and the IND1! as a proxy for Emerging Markets (EM), we see the DM significantly overbought relatively to the EM. Hence, we argue that there is further room for the EM Index to grow. Putting into Practice Figure 9: Setting up the Trade Looking at a shorter timeline, Figure 9 unfolds a compelling narrative marked by a recent decisive breakout from an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This breakout, coupled with the notable reversal in commodity prices, Brazil’s improving balance of trade, a weaker USDBRL, and the RSI not yet overbought; we lean bullish on the IND1!. To express this view, we can long the Ibovespa Index April 2024 Futures (INDJ4) at the current price level of 129,070. • We can set the take profit by adding the difference between the neckline and the bottom of the head (24,695), to the neckline (121,980). This puts our take profit at 146,675 and a hypothetical gain of: 146,675 – 129,070 = 17,605 points. • Likewise, we can set the stop loss at the neckline (121,980), which brings us a hypothetical maximum loss of: 129,070 – 121,980 = 7,090 points. • Each point is equivalent to 1 BRL. Overall In summary, understanding the intricate dynamics between global commodity prices, monetary policies, and trade balances provides valuable insights for anticipating the trajectory of the Ibovespa Index Futures in the evolving financial landscape.
BMFBOVESPA:IND1!Long
by inspirante
1
DXY : A bull run?Before anything , I have spent 8 years navigating the financial markets, with Level 3 CFA and a Master's in Finance under my belt, I've seen my fair share of trends. The value of the US Dollar Index is influenced by several factors, including decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed), US government actions, and the overall health of the US economy. The Fed's monetary policy, statements by the US administration, and US economic data all play a role in how strong the US dollar is compared to other currencies. and you can check this link and take a look on the technical bias: www.investing.com As we can see a Resistance level at 104.42-104.45 and a Support level powered by a fair value gap on daily time frame at 103.2-103.8.
TVC:DXYLong
by theegxtrader
DAX (DAX Index): Waves of uncertainty 🌊DAX (DAX Index): XETR:DAX We recognize that our analysis might diverge from other analysts', but our assessment clearly indicates that the DAX is currently in an overarching Wave 4, visible on the weekly chart within a multi-year scenario. This holds unless we surpass the 18,000 level. If we move beyond 18,000, a reevaluation and recount would be necessary. Until then, we anticipate a decline in the DAX over the coming weeks, months, and possibly years. The exact timing, whether it rises or falls, cannot be pinpointed to a specific year. However, it's important to note that as long as the DAX doesn't exceed 138%, or the 18,000 mark, we expect to be in an Expanded Flat scenario. This aligns well with our expectations for Wave C or the overarching Wave IV, which should fall below Wave (A), fitting the pattern where both B and C waves overshoot in an Expanded Flat. Examining the 4-hour chart, we encounter the same scenario. Without flipping this key level, no significant change is expected. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts suggest an imminent rise, not immediately obvious on the daily or weekly charts, predicting a climb to around 17,500 euros before a downturn in the DAX. We do not anticipate an immediate reversal today or tomorrow but expect a final upward impulse before a corrective move downwards.
XETR:DAXShort
by freeguy_by_wmc
DXY (DOLLAR) IS TRYING TO RECOVER, (READ CAPTION)The dollar is trying to recover in today's trading from the US Federal Reserve's strike The US dollar achieved a modest rise during trading on Thursday, as the green currency attempted to recover from the losses incurred last session as a result of negative federal developments. In this regard, the dollar incurred strong daily losses at the end of yesterday’s session, estimated at about 0.43%, affected by the less stringent statements of US Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which he made yesterday evening, as Jerome Powell said that postponing the interest rate reduction step may harm the US economy, It is expected that the interest rate reduction cycle will begin in the second half of this year, while hinting that despite the strong conditions in the labour market and the outstanding performance of the US economy, this will not prevent the US Federal Reserve from taking interest rate reduction measures. This coincided with the pressures facing the dollar at that time immediately after the release of economic forecasts by the US Federal Reserve, which indicated the possibility of reducing US interest rates three times this year, which means that the US Federal Reserve did not take into account the rise in inflation rates during the past two months, and here it is worth noting. Pointing out that the markets now see a 65% chance that the US Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates at the June meeting, according to the performance of tracking federal interest rates issued by the CME Group. If you like this informative data and technical analyse please support my ideas and follow thanks for kindness.
TVC:DXYLong
by Alexview009
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 22 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 22 March 2024 The Dollar Index, tracking the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rallied following the release of better-than-expected US economic data, bolstering confidence in the Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook. With US Initial Jobless Claims declining to 210,000, surpassing expectations, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell reaffirming the strength of the labor market, investor sentiment favoured The US Dollar. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury bond yields further reinforced the Dollar's upward momentum, reflecting heightened market confidence in the US economic outlook. The Dollar Index is trading higher while currently testing the resistance level. Suggesting the index might extend its gains after breakout. Resistance level: 104.00, 104.50📉 Support level:103.20, 102.55📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx
DE40 DAX sell scenarioDax de40 have been in a crazy bull run since few months and i think its time for a slow down. oblique support have been broke, index is oversold in weekly and we can see it loosing bull power and forming flat top in lower timeframe. I think we can see it make a last push up in the 18100 area and then start a correction since the market like to sell high. i will try a short in this area after a good final push. i will five SL and TP 1 once we reach the potential selling area.
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by Trading_Flight
Trend Trading Strategy for the Heiken Ashi Algo v6Knowing when the RSI and price are in a ranging phase even in the short term can be a difficult process. You are either #Ranging #bullish or #bearish. At least in the Algo v6 you can get a clear vision of exactly whats happening. In this video im going to give you a VERY simple strategy on: 1. How to know if the RSI and price are ranging 2. When do i break away from Ranges 3. Am I trending 4. Im trending but whats my confluence to take a long or short 5. Is my range getting bigger or smaller Enjoy this quick vid and ask questions below. Thanks everyone.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
4
Bullish DXY Awaits U.S. Interest Rate DataThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remains in bullish territory, with buyers maintaining control as investors eagerly await the release of U.S. interest rate data. Context The focus is squarely on the Federal Reserve (FED), and markets are hanging on any hints regarding the future of interest rates. While no rate changes are expected, analysts are alert for any signals indicating a slowdown in rate hikes. Inflation Reports Last week's stronger-than-expected inflation reports have led market participants to revise their expectations for rate cuts this year. Traders now estimate that monetary easing will be around 75 basis points over the course of the year. Key Levels At the time of writing, the DXY is trading at 104.08 points, marking the ninth consecutive daily gain since its March 8 low at 102.32. Key technical levels include: 1. Next Resistance (104.77): This level corresponds to the triangle pattern's upper boundary on the daily chart. A breakout above this level could open the door to further gains. 2. 38.2% Fibonacci Resistance (105.07): If the DXY manages to surpass this mark, it could strengthen its bullish position. 3. 50% Fibonacci Support (102): This level acts as a floor for DXY's price and could be crucial in case of corrections. Note: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.*
TVC:DXY
by CRYPTONIA5
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 20 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 20 March 2024 Following the yen's selloff, investors sought refuge in the safe-haven dollar, resulting in positive gains. With a flurry of central bank decisions dominating currency markets, particularly the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement, market focus remains keenly on potential interest rate adjustments and monetary policy statements. Expectations lean towards the Fed maintaining its current interest rate range of 5.25% to 5.50%, while closely monitoring the bank's guidance for future actions. The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. Suggesting the index might experience technical correction. Resistance level: 104.45, 104.95📉 Support level:103.70, 103.05📈
TVC:DXY
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 18 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 18 March 2024 The Dollar index strengthened against major currencies in anticipation of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) monetary policy decisions. Last week's higher-than-expected US producer and consumer price indexes raised hopes for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. All eyes are on the Fed meeting for clues on the central bank's outlook for rate cuts. The Dollar Index is trading higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level. Suggesting the index might enter overbought territory. Resistance level: 103.75, 104.50📉 Support level:103.05, 102.40📈
TVC:DXYLong
by top_fx
DAX: Overbought on 1D and in need of a technical correction.What makes us expect a technical correction this time, is the similarity in terms of RSI with mid February 2023. It took another 3 weeks for the price to decline but not before the RSI completed a Cup and Handle pattern. That was a -8.00% decline, we are aiming from the current levels for a -6.40% decline, which happened another 2 times, so our target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,900). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 14 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 14 March 2024 The Dollar Index retreated from resistance levels as market participants absorbed higher-than-expected Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) data, prompting profit-taking strategies ahead of upcoming US economic releases. Attention now turns to pivotal Producer Price Index (PPI) and retail sales figures for insights into the economy's trajectory and potential interest rate adjustments. The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level. Suggesting the index might extend its losses. Resistance level: 103.05, 103.70📉 Support level:102.55, 102.10📈
TVC:DXYShort
by top_fx
1