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DOLLAR_INDX, H4 11 March 2024 💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 11 March 2024 The US Dollar grapples with losses as key employment indicators present a mixed picture. The disappointing unemployment rate and hourly earnings figures contrast with a robust non-farm payroll report, leaving the greenback in a delicate position. Bloomberg reports reveal that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and colleagues are moving closer to revising their inflation strategy. Powell emphasises the need for "just a bit more evidence" before considering a shift in the central bank's approach. His recent congressional testimony suggests a potential willingness to cut interest rates in the short term, pending further confirmation of inflation trends toward the 2% target. The Dollar Index is trading lower following the prior breakout below the previous support level. Suggesting the index might enter oversold territory. Resistance level: 103.70, 104.50📉 Support level:102.10, 101.35📈
TVC:DXYShort
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 8 March 2024💵 DOLLAR_INDX, H4 💵 8 March 2024 The Dollar Index has undergone a substantial decline for a second consecutive session. This can be attributed to the messaging from the Federal Reserve chief during the testimony, indicating that the U.S. central bank is approaching its targeted inflation rate of 2%, and the Fed is on the verge of adjusting its monetary tightening policy. This development has heightened speculation about a potential rate cut in June, significantly impacting the strength of the dollar, causing it to depreciate. The dollar index has broken another support level, suggesting the dollar is trading with strong bearish momentum. Suggesting the bearish momentum is gaining. Resistance level: 103.70, 104.50📉 Support level: 102.00, 101.35📈
TVC:DXYShort
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX, H4 7 March 2024DOLLAR_INDX, H4 7 March 2024 The Dollar Index has descended to its lowest point in a month, currently trading below 103.50 levels. The dollar faced significant downward pressure primarily due to the dovish stance communicated in Powell's testimony that began yesterday. Powell indicated an expectation that the U.S. central bank will initiate rate cuts this year. Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday, as it may offer insights into the potential timing of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting actions. The dollar index traded eased from its crucial liquidity zone and plunged to its one-month high, suggesting a bearish bias for the dollar. Suggesting that bearish momentum is gaining. Resistance level: 103.70, 104.50📉 Support level: 102.90, 102.00📈
TVC:DXYShort
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 6 March 2024DOLLAR_INDX, H4 6 March 2024 The Dollar Index faced downward pressure, currently slipping below 103.85. Investors seem to be swayed by recent lacklustre economic data from the United States, indicating a potential slowdown in economic growth. This sentiment prevails despite expectations of relatively hawkish testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell scheduled for today and tomorrow. Powell's testimony is anticipated to introduce higher volatility to the Dollar Index as market participants keenly await insights into the central bank's stance amid economic challenges. The dollar index traded eased from its short-term support level at 103.85, suggesting a shift in the index's momentum. Resistance level: 104.50, 104.95 Support level: 103.70, 102.90
TVC:DXY
by top_fx
DOLLAR_INDX,DXY H4 4 March 2024DOLLAR_INDX, H4 The Dollar Index faced a decline last Friday as the market's risk sentiment underwent a shift. Discouraging ISM manufacturing PMI readings weighed on the dollar, prompting investors to sell the currency and turn their attention to riskier assets. Throughout the upcoming week, several members of the Federal Reserve are scheduled to deliver speeches. These addresses are anticipated to provide insights into the Fed's potential monetary moves, influencing the trajectory of the dollar's strength. The Dollar Index has declined but has found support at near 103.85, suggesting the bullish trend remains intact. Suggesting a neutral signal for the dollar index. Resistance level: 104.50, 104.95 Support level: 103.70, 102.90
TVC:DXY
by top_fx
Price overextension: misconceptions and common mistakesPrice overextension remains a widely misunderstood concept in trading, causing both novice and seasoned traders to make errors in their decision-making. This misinterpretation often leads to placing trades in the wrong direction or, equally detrimental, overlooking profitable opportunities. In essence, price overextension signifies that the market has undergone a rapid and excessive movement in one direction. Such movements are often perceived as unsustainable. Numerous indicators, such as Stochastic, RSI, Bollinger Bands and many other, attempt to identify such "abnormal" price movements so traders could capitalize on them. Despite variations in statistical methods and calculations, their common goal is to detect instances where price went or down too much and is likely to reverse. In this discussion, I will use Relative-Strength-Index (RSI), a popular indicator, to convey my perspective on price overextension. While some traders argue for customization, the elusive question of "how" often remains unanswered. From my experience, there are no universally perfect settings that consistently yield optimal results. I’ll draw my examples from the recent SPY bar chart (February 2024). The first misconception The first misconception is that if price is overextended it is time to immediately start looking for a trade in the opposite direction. The most important phrase here is “start looking”. Many beginners misinterpret this as an invitation to commence trading, leading to the premature initiation of short positions during perceived market "overextension" and vice versa. So, the first and foremost important advice is to never try guessing top/bottom based on one indicator or gut feeling. Simple as it seems I remember many times breaking this rule myself because the temptation was too strong. It rarely ended up well. On the graph, I've highlighted three recent instances where the RSI exceeded 70 (indicating overbought conditions). What stands out is that, following each occurrence, the price surged significantly before consolidation set in, inflicting losses upon short traders. Even experienced traders, who look for confluence of signals, may fall into this trap. In the first two examples, bearish candlestick patterns failed to prevent subsequent price increases. Most likely, those candles were “created” by weak hands traders, who tried to short market, while it was actually controlled by strong buyers. These instances could have been avoided by considering the daily graph, revealing a robust bullish context – price was in an uptrend, one-time-framing up on weekly. There were couple of moments when bears gained short term control (Tuesdays 13th and 20th) but they never could take the previous week low; bulls always confirmed their control. The second advice is to avoid trading against higher level context. While sometimes those trades might work the result is usually mediocre and most of the times you’ll simply lose. If you really wish to trade against context you need to construct a solid dossier of evidence, supporting your trade. The second misconception What is the second misconception? It is that when price overextended it is not time to go with the market. In this scenario, traders refrain from initiating long trades after RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially causing them to miss profitable opportunities. It might not hurt your account but who likes missing good opportunities? Surprisingly, seizing these trades correctly is not much harder than any other trade. It simply requires prudence and discipline and getting rid-off cognitive biases. For example, in the second example on the graph a trader could win up to 1% if he played off gap-up open after seeing that the new price has found acceptance. Conclusion It is possible to build a profitable strategy that relies on “price overextension” concept. However, it demands more than a cursory examination of a single indicator and adherence to textbook candle patterns. Personally, I reached a point where I entirely abandoned the use of RSI and similar tools because, instead of providing clarity, they seemed to cloud my thinking. Opting for a more effective approach involves keenly observing actual market behavior, which often defies conventional expectations. Study of high-level contexts, understanding key levels, and discerning confluence in price action signals on lower timeframes consistently prove invaluable. This method helps steer clear of common pitfalls and contributes to enhancing overall trading results.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by hermes_trisme
DAX: Next week could be the top. Downside more than -6% possibleDAX is approaching the 16 month HH Zone while being vastly overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 76.873, MACD = 201.900, ADX = 41.880). The 1D CCI shows that we may be entering a period of volatility similar to what followed after the May 19th 2023 High, which initially resulted into a -6.42% correction. Based on that, our bearish target is near the S1 level (TP = 16,850). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:DE40Short
by InvestingScope
NASDAQ: Channel Up peaked. Correction needed.Nasdaq is forming a new HH at the top of the 1 year Channel Up with the 1W timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 70.596, MACD = 766.660, ADX = 46.154) and the RSI in particular under LH and inside the red Resistance Zone. This is a bearish signal, validation would come upon a 1D MA50 bearish crossing. Our target is the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by InvestingScope
2
EICHER Motors is around Long term support Eicher Motors is around the medium term support !! Stock has never broken support working from 2020 Log Chart support is working beautifully and has support around 3500-3600 On a Linear Chart stock has made 2 support and recently short term support working Linear chart support is around 3480-3520 !! Stock is Goof until support is intact !! Thanks !! Disclaimer : We are not SEBI registered analyst. Do your own research before taking any investment decision.
NSE:EICHERMOTLong
by FiveCircles
DXY Head and Shoulder Pattern 4HDXY Head and Shoulder Pattern 4H Possible formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the 4H timeframe. Pattern is a reversal pattern, could possibly break the 4H trendline to continue the daily timeframe downtrend. Would be looking for shorts from the 50% to 61.8% Fib levels. Further confluence is the RSI showing now entering overbought levels on the 4H timeframe. If price breaks past the previous lower high on the 4H timeframe, trade will become invalid. Like and comment if you agree.
TVC:DXYShort
by Ryan-L
Mr. Double Top is that you?Following a contracting triangle breakout today, NIFTY zoomed up with a fair amount of pull backs which denote more than just a regular retracement. Over a larger time frame, one can observe NIFTY ultimately forming lower highs since it made the last all time high. Today, near the closing bell NIFTY made a double top and slipped down from what one would consider a healthy retracement. These sharp pull backs show the power of bears to cause a dip and trap for buyers hoping a fresh bull run. However, patterns can break so keeping in mind the risks you should not stick to any particular pattern assuming the holy grail to market formations. On the right axis is Fibonacci retracements we can observe if a sharp fall occurs if the double top pattern holds true.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by nikhilchhabra