Index
DXY (dollar index) weekly ideaCurrently, the dollar trend indicates a bearish direction, suggesting that pairs I typically trade, such as GU, EU, and gold, may rise. Presently, I anticipate a retracement to occur towards an 8-hour supply zone I've identified, facilitating the continuation of the bearish trajectory.
This ideally aligns with my strategy until the price drops to around the 104 level, potentially sparking a bullish rally upwards. At that point, I'll need to seek selling opportunities for my other pairs. The dollar's price action appears clear, and there are still imbalances below that require fulfilment.
Have a great trading week guys!
Trading with RSI: The Bad, The Good and Even BetterIn this video I explain how to use RSI (Relative Strength Index) to make trading decisions. You'll learn how to properly use RSI oversold condition, combining low timeframe price action signals with high level context analysis.
Besides of explaining three different strategies (the bad, the good and even better) I'll do back-testing on historical data to demonstrate how those strategies translate into real trading results.
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
$BTC tops correlates to $DXY bottoms?Dollar strength bottoms historically marked the tops of the Bitcoin bullrun.
If the dollar is used to buy Bitcoin, then if the dollar loses strength, more dollars are needed to buy Bitcoin, right?
Then if, in the future the dollar crashes hard, can Bitcoin make a super bullish rally?
$DXY down, $BTC up - The crazy (but logic) correlationCRYPTOCAP:BTC just printed a "magical" green candle, after a kinda "bearish" upward movement with a lot of divergences. No one was expecting an upward movement like this, and really caught bears and shorters by surprise. The short squeeze here was brutal and a lot of shorters must be in pain.
Anyone could be asking themselves, "what the hell just happened?". This is the time where traders blame "manipulation" and "market makers" as the ones who move the market to their interests, with such a, we could say, "irracional" price action.
Well... There COULD be an explanation.
Historically DXY (The index that measures the strenght of US Dollar in the financial market) have had an inverse correlation to the price of Bitcoin and viceversa.
It has some kind of logic, since, if Bitcoin is bought with dollars, then if dollar lose its value, then you need more dollars to buy Bitcoin! simple math, simple logic. We are not sure if the graphs are 100% correlated themselves, but it makes sense!
Here you can see that I applied the TVC:DXY graph over CRYPTOCAP:BTC graph, but the TVC:DXY is INVERTED, meaning that every time TVC:DXY went up, you can see it here going down. So you can see now more clearly the direct correlation both have.
TVC:DXY just broke a trendline and printed a very strong red candle JUST at the very same time BTC did y massive green candle a liquidated short positions at very important sell zones.
It's kind of easy to predict a big movement of any of both, if one of them does a big move at some point, because you can expect the other to do a big move at the same time or some time later.
Keep an eye ALWAYS on DXY when you are trading Bitcoin or any crypto.
It IS a finantial advice.
Don't Panic! Nasdaq Bear Breakout May Signal Trading RangeNasdaq Market Analysis Report
Overview
The Nasdaq Composite Index has displayed a bearish breakout from a prominent top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern followed a strong bullish trend, indicating a potential shift into a trading range rather than a fully-fledged bear trend. I'll analyze where the market could find a bottom, explore potential trading strategies, and offer a market outlook.
Bear Breakout and Trading Range Potential
While the April breakout was strong, a transition period into a trading range remains likely due to the preceding bull market. Identifying the range's bottom is crucial for pinpointing trading opportunities.
Support Levels and Market Direction
Key support areas to watch include:
- Previous All-Time High: A natural support level.
- 200-Day Moving Average: Historically significant indicator.
- 50% Pullback: Common retracement level in major trends.
- Weekly Bull Channel Trendline: Provides underlying support.
- Round Number Levels: $16000 and $15000 offer psychological support.
Market sentiment will be influenced by whether bears continue to hold the current scenario, preventing any substantial breakouts above previous highs.
Trading Strategies
- Bullish Approach: Consider selling volatility (e.g., put spreads with 45 DTE) near the identified support levels.
- Bearish Approach: Selling around current prices with a stop at the recent all-time high could work. Look for double/triple tops or trade resistance from the 50-day MA.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq likely faces extended correction towards either the 200-day MA or the weekly bull channel's lower trendline. Price action around these areas will provide clues to the market's true direction, allowing for suitable adjustments to your trading strategies.
USD INDEX (DXY) ... BULLISH OUTLOOKBias is Bullish.
Price has rebalanced the +FVG,
and now looks ready to target
the buyside LQ, providing the
FVG holds firm.
Expecting an Internal->External
move.
We are just shy of the 2nd
standard deviation.
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i like a neutral set up leaning buy into mondayfutures have reclaimed some ground at the end of the trading week. i feel good about leaning buy towards the start of next week, as long as were holding a decent level according to this market structure/value area and volume range.
this ai strategy shows that the price is supportive of extending its gains if we hold this momentum to the upside.
NVDIA: bottomed but may consolidate for a while. Massive upside.NVDA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.860, MACD = -7.940, ADX = 34.317) as it corrected to a respectable extent, a correction that we have been expected as pointed out on our latest idea. The Channel Up is intact, the price crossed under the 1D MA50 and like the September-October correction, it may consolidate until it catches up with the 1D MA100. Whatever the case, this is most likely NVDIA's bottom, a symmetric -21.33% correction with an enormous upside on the 4.0 Fib extension, like the two Highs prior. For the time being our target is a more modest one on the 2.0 Fib (TP = 1,250).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES: Pattern worked like beauty. Technical rebound.Dow quickly turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.651, MACD = -238.11, ADX = 37.915) not staying for long on its previous bearish state as after hitting our TP = 37,300 it rebounded emphatically and is about to test the 1D MA50. The pattern was the same as the prior corrections inside the Channel Up: pullback to the 0.382 and -6.95% in particular like on December 20th 2022. Now the price should at least retrace to the 0.786 Fib on this bounce. Long TP = 39,350.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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S&P500: 1D MA100 hit. Short term rebound at least to be expectedS&P500 is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.601, MACD = -44.800, ADX = 58.528) as it touched the 1D MA100 on Friday after more than 5 months. This calls for a short term rebound at least as every previous corrective wave inside the multi month Channel Up that approached the 1D MA100, it rebounded to at least the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Following our last short call, we are now turning long again (TP = 5,115).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DAX: Almost on the 1D MA100. Has it bottomed?DAX effortlessly made a -6.50% decline from the top and hit our 17,450 TP, crossing in the meantime under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 10th 2023. Naturally its 1D technically outlook turned bearish (RSI = 41.378, MACD = 14.500, ADX = 36.627). In our view, it has or is very close to the new technical bottom as the 1D MA100 is just right under and the 1D RSI is inside a Channel Down bottom similar to March 20 2023. We don't expect the price to drop much lower than 17,300 next week, if it does then the ultimate long term buy entry will be on the 1D MA200. Our target by June is the HH Zone again (TP = 18,750).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Nasdaq and Indices Lower on Middle East conflictNasdaq keeps pushing bearish as the stock indices struggle to deal with rising tensions and conflict in the middle east. The Monthly/Weekly timeframes .. everything is bearish. As we head into the close of the week I'm anticpating a further push bearish. The previous 4hr candle closed a shooting star candle.. this coincided with the 1hr timeframe rejecting a 1hr resistance zone,17,397. The market dropped and really disliked the Israel strikes from 12 hours ago. We have bearish momentum , anticpating a retest of daily support level 17,164. The weekly candle will likely keep pulling down to finish off the candle. Vix volatility index gapped way up overnight due to war conflicts and this signals more puts being bought and therefore more anticpated downside on the Indices.
NASDAQ: This is a short term correction leading to 21,500.Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 37.414, MACD = -64.490, ADX = 50.187) but the 1W RSI is still bullish (RSI = 56.510). You can see the reason on this chart. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that is supported by the 1W MA50 for the past 13 months. The current pullback can be seen as a phase similar to the consolidation of August-November 2020 that resumed the uptrend afterwards almost as high as the 4.0 Fibonacci extension level. The RSIs are very much alike as well, under LH trendlines. Consequently our long term target is slightly under the 4.0 Fib (TP = 21,500).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DXY - Are You Ready?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 DXY has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in red.
Currently, DXY is approaching the upper bound of the channel acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red trendline and green resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #DXY approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich