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SPY S&P 500 ETF 2023 Forecast. CPI Report PredictionAfter those Put options went to the target: My timeline for SPY S&P 500 ETF after the CPI report on Feb 14 is this: 1. CPI data will come better than expected. The medium forecast in 6.2, I expect 6 - 6.1. - The market will be exuberant afterwards and SPY will reach $431 by March 1st, thinking that the FED won the fight against inflation. 2. While inflation continues to be sticky in March, the FED will continue increasing interest rates and won`t stop until something cracks in the economy. Another 25bps increase. - The market is expected to react and the SPY will reach $376. 3. They year will end in a positive note, the was in Ukraine will end and the supply chain disruption that was one of the factors of high inflation, will be restored. Inflation don to 3%. My prediction for SPY by the end of the year is $436, a 15% increase YOY. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
S&P500: Bearish as long as the Megaphone holds.Bullish if brokenS&P500 hit the 4,375 target of our last signal (chart at the end) and turned neutral on the 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 54.575, MACD = -15.020, ADX = 40.128). The rise is now approaching the 1D MA50, over which the new top was formed before on the LH of the Bearish Megaphone. We will wait for the top and short, aiming at the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement (TP = 4,325) as it happened with the September 7th pull back. If the price crosses over the LH, we will wait to buy on the first pull back near the 1D MA50 and target July's High (TP = 4,600). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
9
DOLLAR IdeaGood morning, traders. Yesterday, we witnessed a push down in the dollar and an upward move in EUR/USD. We're still trading within a range, and we noticed the first sign of weakness in the dollar index as it failed to make a lower low. Today, we have news releases that can influence the dollar, so exercise caution when trading dollar pairs. We're patiently waiting for a swing trade opportunity on EUR/USD, but first, we need to see the dollar break through levels around 105.500. Once that happens, we'll actively look for swing trades on EUR/USD. Stay patient, my friends. There's no need to take unnecessary risks. The market offers plenty of opportunities. Happy trading!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by themarketknight
US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week: Implications The US Customer Cost Record (CPI) information for September is due to be discharged on Wednesday, taken after by the US Government Reserve's intrigued rate choice on the same day. Both of these occasions have the potential to altogether affect the forex and stock markets. The CPI information could be a degree of expansion, and a higher-than-expected perusing may lead to assist tightening of monetary arrangement by the Encouraged. This can be since the Bolstered is entrusted with keeping expansion in check, and it'll likely raise intrigued rates on the off chance that expansion is running too high. A higher-than-expected CPI perusing might too lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is often since higher intrigued rates can make it more expensive for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can moreover weigh on buyer investing. The Fed's intrigued rate choice is additionally likely to have a major affect on the forex and stock markets. A 75 premise point rate climb by the Bolstered is broadly anticipated, but a larger-than-expected rate climb might lead to a sell-off in stock markets and a more grounded US dollar. Forex Suggestions A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Nourished may lead to a more grounded US dollar. This is often since financial specialists tend to purchase secure safe house resources, such as the US dollar, when they are expecting higher intrigued rates or instability within the markets. Stock Suggestions A higher-than-expected CPI perusing or a larger-than-expected rate climb by the Fed may lead to a sell-off in stock markets. This is since higher interest rates can make it more costly for companies to borrow cash and contribute, and it can too weigh on customer investing. Conclusion The US CPI data and the Fed's intrigued rate choice are two of the foremost critical financial occasions of the week. Both of these occasions have the potential to significantly impact the forex and stock markets. Speculators are exhorted to screen these occasions closely and be arranged for instability. Sources: Bloomberg: "US CPI Data, Fed Rate Hike Decision Due This Week" Reuters: "US CPI Expected to Ease in September, But Stay Elevated" I hope this post is helpful. If you agree with the idea, please follow and share this with others too. This analysis is based on the information at the date it is posted. This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information. Any feedback is encouraged and appreciated. Thank you and have a nice day!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by YExplore
Dollar Bulls Persistently Pushing DXY Following our recent examination of the American Dollar Index (DXY), the bullish momentum has continuously propelled the dollar, reaching peaks not observed since November 2022. It's worth noting the impressive streak of 11 consecutive weekly green candles. As we inch closer to a historically significant reaction zone, there's been a noticeable price rejection of over 1%. The week ahead is shaping up to be tumultuous, potentially magnified by several key events. Major Events Lined Up This Week: 1. September PPI Inflation - Expected on Wednesday. 2. Fed Meeting Minutes - Slated for release on Wednesday. 3. September CPI Inflation - A highlight for Thursday. 4. OPEC Monthly Report - Also to be unveiled on Thursday. 5. Jobless Claims Data - Thursday promises to be bustling with this data on the docket. 6. Fed Speaking Events - Various engagements are scheduled throughout the week. These events, primarily centered around inflation and anticipated responses from the Federal Reserve, suggest that the weeks ahead could wield a significant influence on market sentiment. Current chart patterns indicate that the probability of the dollar touching the 110.00 price mark is on the rise, supported by the bullish PA & channel. However, adverse news for the dollar might trigger a potential reversal. In such a scenario, the 105.50 to 105.75 range stands out as a primary reaction zone. A breach below this area could signify DXY's shift towards a bearish trajectory. A word of caution, especially for the novices: the markets can be notoriously unpredictable, more so during event-loaded weeks. Exercising caution, staying informed, and emphasizing risk management are a must. I'll be on the lookout and will touch base in a few days, waiting to observe the daily closing patterns over the next 2-3 days and the market's response to the week's opening events. This information should be viewed as guidance and not definitive instructions. Thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor are essential before making any investment decisions.
TVC:DXY
by Blast910
IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...? My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy. Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V". The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C. After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio (0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met. Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard. That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia: 1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities); 2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities); 3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish); 4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital; 5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange. 6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock) Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out. The Mid/Short-Term Analysis Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24. It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
RUS:IRUSLong
by artemfedorov
NASDAQ: Can hit 17,000 if the 1D MA50 breaks again.Nasdaq remains bearish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 40.412, MACD = -138.180, ADX = 35.654) but it is on the HL trendline, the supporting trendline that emerged on the December 28th 2022 low. According to the 1D RSI, comparisons can be made with the September-October 2020 consolidation fractal around the 1D MA50, following the COVID recovery. After the 1D MA50 got crossed over for the second time, the index went on to reach the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level before the next consolidation. If the HL holds and the index breaks over the 1D MA50 again, we will have a strong long term bullish case in our hands and target 17,000 (Fibonacci 1.786). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
BXY, Important, Crucial BEAR-Fractals, Setup of a Next Wave!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of the BXY. Within recent times there are major factors moving the BXY as the inflationary pressures within the BXY are still increasing paired with a historically high interest rate of 5.25% that was seen the last time during the financial crisis of 2008 this is already indicating a high bearish sentiment dynamic that should not be underestimated in any cases. Also, a major stagnation within the BXY is ongoing with YoY productivity stagnating and not forming any new highs. These factors are determining an increased private sector debt demand that is near an all-time high. These high levels of private sector debt demand have been seen the last time in the financial crisis of 2008 similarly to the high interest rates. The high private sector debt demand is accelerating the bearish momentum for the BXY. Considering the underlying chart dynamics the BXY is still trading within this enormous gigantic descending channel formation in which it has a major supply distribution channel within the upper boundaries. This supply distribution channel has been already the origin of the major bearish wave A accelerating towards the bearish direction. Exactly the same bearish fractal is setting up now once again as the BXY is pulling back off the upper resistance boundaries. Furthermore, the BXY has already completed the massive ascending triangle formation with a substantial breakout below the lower boundary completing the whole ascending triangle formation and accelerating the bearish confirmation and continuation dynamics. Now, the BXY already activated the target zone of 115 with the completion of this gigantic ascending triangle formation once this target zone has been reached there is a high potential for further continuation. Taking these factors into perspective, the BXY is completing two major bearish formations here, and especially with the bearish distribution channel breakout to emerge in the next times this is going to activate the next targets within the lower boundary regions of the gigantic descending channel formation to form a paramount new lower low within this whole chart. An increased interest rate together with an accelerated private sector debt demand moving to all-time highs lastly seen in the financial crisis of 2008 are going to increase the bearish dynamics. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of BXY. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:BXY
by VincePrince
10