Index
DAX potential 500 points LONG! Retesting LOW VWAP BAND
Helloo Traders:)
DAX has already double-tested the lower limit of VWAP -1, accepting this level twice with a dynamic break to the upper limit of VWAP. Currently, the session closed above the level of the lower line VWAP. What may announce another positive break towards the upper limits of the VWAP. Opening a long position after Heikin Ashi generates confirmation. Negation of the scenario after going below and closing the candle fully below the lower limit of the VWAP. If you are curious how VWAP works, I have created a short tutorial available on my TradingView profile.
I wish you good trading week!
SPY S&P 500 etf Options expiring next weekIf you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FED`s Interest Rate Decision last week:
Which happen to end up 4.18X higher after the Federal Reserve suggested the likelihood of another rate increase in the near future.
Then you need to know that SPY is approaching an oversold area.
And historically, as you can see in the RSI chart, in these areas technical players tend to buy the dip, anticipating a technical rebound.
In this context, and looking into the options chain, I would consider the following Calls expiring next Friday:
2023-9-29 expiration date
$430 Strike Price
$4.38 Premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Others 1W (Crypto Total Market Cap) until end of 2023Sideways until the end of November between 101B and 124B. In December Others Market Cap may jump up to 137B - (false)breakout? Followed by (probably unsuccessful) retest in the second half of December (end of January 2024) falling down to 124B or even lower to 106B.
To be updated in January 2024...
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%.
On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations.
These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy.
In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S&P500 Confirmed sell as it crossed the MA100 (1d).The S&P500 index crossed today under the MA100 (1d) for the first time since March 28th.
Since October 2022, the pattern is a Channel Up and the current decline since the July 27th top still has room to fall before it hits the pattern's bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 4250 (bottom of the Channel Up and potential contact with the MA200 (1d)).
Tips:
1. The bottom's of the long term Channel Up have beem formed when the RSI (1d) completed Lower Lows near or under the 30.00 level. Be ready to book the profit if you see a rebound after the RSI makes a Lower Low.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DXY ANALYSISThe decision to raise interest rates is happening tomorrow. 99 percent estimate that interest rates will remain the same.
As far as the analysis is concerned, we see divergences on both the momentum and RSI on the daily. I honestly expected it to reach the swing high of $106, but nothing is over yet. Will everything be so simple and the Shorters will win there or will the Fed do something again where both sides will lose
It can be seen that the trend is weakening, but it is better to wait for the decision.
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SPX, Major H-S-Formation To Crucial Reversal!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about the SPX and the daily timeframe perspectives. In recent times many indices within the market already showed up with precarious pullbacks in the structure that should not be underestimated so also the SPX. As when looking at my chart we can watch there how the Index is forming this major decisive head-shoulder-formation with the left shoulder and the head already completed. Now as the right shoulder develops in the structure this is a likely setup for the completion of this whole formation which will happen when the SPX finally breaks down below the neckline as it is shown in my chart. Such a setup will be the finalization of the whole head-shoulder-formation and the SPX is likely to follow up with a bearish continuation till reaching out to the 4.380 zone from where the situation needs to be elevated again. If the SPX in this case does not hold this level and do not shows up with a reversal in the structure the possibility of a continuation-setup increases in which the SPX will form a bear-flag or similar continuation formation. If this completes a continuation will move on within the bearish-continuation-zone marked in my chart in red. Currently we should not keep these determinations from the desk and be prepared on upcoming volatilities, it will be an important journey ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best!
"The high destiny of the market is to explicate, rather than to speculate."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
RUSSELL 2000: Can drop more before an end-of-year rebound.Russell 2000 broke again today under the 1D MA200 after failing to close over the 1D MA50 on September 1st. Despite numerous breaks under the 1D MA200, all candles managed to close over it. If today's close under it (first time since June 5th) along with the bearish 1D technicals (RSI = 35.725, MACD = -19.100, ADX = 32.380), we expect the price to drop more inside the HL Zone. Then it will become a buy opportunity again and we estimate an end of the year rally towards the R1 Zone again (TP = 2,015).
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S&P500: Channel Down bottom and HL Support cluster. Buy?S&P500 hit today the HL trendline from the August 18th Low, while approaching the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. Despite this short term weakness, the 1D timeframe remains on neutral technicals (RSI = 46.932, MACD = 8.582, ADX = 32.119). This indicates that it may be an opportunity for sideways trading until we see a clear long term trend.
Consequently, we are buyers on this level, expecting a rebound to the top of the Channel Down and the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 4,490).
Prior idea:
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HANG SENG: Buy signal on the bottom of the Channel Down.Hang Seng got rejected on the 1D MA50 two weeks ago and is headed again to the bottom of the Channel Down pattern. The 1D timeframe turned red again on its technical outlook (RSI = 41.280, MACD = -221.700, ADX = 20.498) and this is becoming a buy opportunity again. Every prior rise inside this Channel Down has been at least +10.90% so the one that started on the August 22nd low isn't technically completed. Buy and attempt contact with the 1D MA200 (TP = 19,400).
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Euro Currency Index: The Future of the Eurozone?The Euro Currency Index is following the price action that I talked about in my last analysis.
For now, not big changes when it comes to technical analysis.
Technical analysis
On the 30-minute chart, EXY is trading in a descending channel. This suggests that the bears are in control and that the index is likely to continue to decline in the short term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00.
On the 4-hour chart, EXY is also trading in a descending channel. However, the channel is starting to widen, which suggests that the bears may be losing momentum. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00.
On the daily chart, EXY is trading below its 200-day moving average. This is a bearish signal, and it suggests that the index is likely to continue to decline in the medium term. The next key support level is at 100.00, followed by 99.00.
Fundamental analysis
The eurozone economy is facing a number of challenges in 2023. The war in Ukraine has caused energy prices to soar, which is putting a strain on businesses and consumers. Inflation is also at a multi-decade high, which is eroding household purchasing power. In addition, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates in the coming months, which could further weigh on economic growth.
Despite these challenges, there are some positive signs for the eurozone economy. The unemployment rate is at a record low, and consumer confidence is starting to rebound. Additionally, the ECB has announced a number of measures to support the economy, such as the new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI).
I hope this post is helpful.
This analysis represents my thoughts at the date it is posted.
This analysis does not represent professional and/or financial advice.
You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other content found on this profile before making any decisions based on such information.
The US Dollar Index: A Symphony of StrengthOn a smaller timeframe, the DXY price direction is still not fully decided. According to the current analysis, we are currently in a Wave 4. The price will correct on the downside soon. I marked 3 potential levels where it can retrace. It is not mandatory for the price to touch them all, however, the price can go even lower than the marked levels - it's all up to the market in the end and we need to be careful to any potential sudden change.
On the daily chart, the DXY is currently in a descending channel that began in early 2023. The channel is defined by a resistance level at around 103.50 and a support level at around 100.00. The DXY is currently testing the resistance level and could break out to the upside if it can close above this level. However, if it fails to break out, it could fall back to the support level.
On the weekly chart, the DXY is also in a descending channel. The channel is defined by a resistance level at around 103.00 and a support level at around 98.00. The DXY is currently testing the resistance level and could break out to the upside if it can close above this level. However, if it fails to break out, it could fall back to the support level.
Fundamental analysis
The US dollar has been strengthening against other major currencies in recent months due to a number of factors, including:
Rising interest rates in the United States: The US Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. This has made US assets more attractive to investors, which has led to an appreciation in the value of the US dollar.
A strong US economy: The US economy is currently the strongest major economy in the world. This is due to a number of factors, including strong consumer spending, low unemployment, and a robust labor market. The strength of the US economy has also made US assets more attractive to investors, which has led to an appreciation in the value of the US dollar.
Uncertainty in other major economies: There is a great deal of uncertainty in other major economies, such as the eurozone and the United Kingdom. This uncertainty has led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, such as the US dollar.
The outlook for the US dollar is mixed. On the one hand, the factors that have been supporting the US dollar in recent months are likely to continue to do so in the near term. This suggests that the US dollar could continue to strengthen against other major currencies.
On the other hand, there are a number of risks that could derail the US dollar's rally. These include:
A recession in the United States: A recession would have a negative impact on the US economy and could lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar.
A slowdown in the global economy: A slowdown in the global economy would also have a negative impact on the US economy and could lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar.
A change in US monetary policy: If the US Federal Reserve were to reverse course and start cutting interest rates, this could lead to a decline in the value of the US dollar.
Overall, the outlook for the US dollar is mixed. The factors that have been supporting the US dollar in recent months are likely to continue to do so in the near term, but there are a number of risks that could derail the US dollar's rally.
DXY, Huge Drop Incoming, H-S-Formation Completion!Hello,
Welcome to this analysis about the DXY US-Dollar Currency Index and the 4-hour timeframe perspectives. In recent times the Index is forming important developments that should not be underestimated as inflation pressures on fiat and there is an inflation rate never seen since more than 35 years the DXY is setting up for a dump to the downside. Looking at my chart we can watch there how the Index is building this main head-shoulder-formation in the structure, with the left shoulder and the head completed and now in the right shoulder the Index is forming this bear-flag-formation-channel of which the right shoulder consists. In this case now when the Index finally breaks down below the neckline this will show the confirmational completion of this whole formation and the Index will set for further continuations as well as activate the target zone seen in my chart. Once the target zone has been reached it has to be elevated how the Index moves further and if there comes a potential reversal or just a devastating bearish continuation, it will be an important development ahead.
In this manner, thank you for watching the analysis, it will be great when you support it with a like, follow and comment for more upcoming market analysis, all the best!
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Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
DXY Bearish Correction Ahead! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is heading up to retest
A strong supply level at 105.83
And the index is locally overboguht
So after the retest we will be
Expecting the price to make
A local bearish correction
Sell!
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