Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-H, for DXY US Dollar IndexTVC:DXY This chart shows a clear Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour time frame for DXY (US Dollar Index), which is a bearish reversal pattern. Here's a short analysis:
Key Levels:
The neckline is at approximately 108.000, acting as a crucial support zone.
A breakdown below the neckline would signal further bearish momentum.
Pattern Confirmation:
Wait for a breakout below the neckline, followed by a possible retest, to confirm the pattern.
Bearish Target:
The measured move from the head to the neckline can be projected downward, aligning with the next key support levels around 107.000–106.500.
Invalidation Zone:
If price breaks above the right shoulder high (around 108.800–109.000), the bearish scenario could be invalidated.
Would you like to explore specific trade setups based on this pattern?
Here’s how you can structure trade setups based on the Head and Shoulders pattern visible in the chart:
1. Bearish Setup (Breakout Strategy)
Entry: Enter a short position after a confirmed breakout below the neckline (108.000). Wait for a strong bearish candle close below this level.
Stop Loss: Place the stop loss above the right shoulder high at 108.800–109.000, depending on your risk tolerance.
Take Profit Targets:
1st target: 107.500 (psychological level and near-term support).
2nd target: 107.000 (projected move based on pattern).
3rd target: 106.500 (long-term support zone).
Index
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 3.6%
(December/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023.
Food prices rose at the steepest pace in a year (6.4% vs 4.8% in November), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn.
Further, electricity prices (18.7% vs 9.9%) and gas cost (5.6% vs 3.5%) increased at the fastest rate in four months with the absence of energy subsidies since May.
Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.9%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.6%), transport (1.1% vs 0.9%), furniture and household utensils (3.0% vs 3.7%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.6%), recreation (4.0% vs 4.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 1.1%).
In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-2.1% vs -3.0%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%).
The core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3.0%, up from 2.7% in November and matching consensus. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.6%, the highest figure in 14 months.
$NQ MMSMInitially, we have a bearish outlook for the NQ, given that it has experienced several consecutive weeks of upward movement. Our analysis is based on the change in price action in lower time frames, where recent movements suggest a potential pullback. This correction, if it occurs, could serve as a pause before the continuation of the prevailing bullish trend.
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ You will not be scared to invest in tech after this.Nasdaq / US100 has just started a massively bullish phase long term.
Both on 1month RSI terms and pure monthly candles, the index has entered 2025 the same way it entered 1992.
That was the start of Nasdaq's Internet Bubble, much like today we have established the era of Artificial Intelligence.
A.I. has given us a glimpse of its enormous growth potential in 2023-2024 but that is nothing compared to what's coming.
Eventually it will turn into a Bubble that will pop but we don't know how high it can go before it does.
It it repeats the Internet Bubble, the it should burst by 2031/32 in levels around 10000, no matter how crazy this price may seem now. In fact it shouldn't surprise you as Nasdaq quadrupled in the past 7 years.
In any event, this chart serves as a reminder to long term investors like us, that investing in technology stocks is a 'must' going forward into 2025.
Previous chart:
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Is ASX 200 waiting for a catalyst?Looking at the technical picture of the MARKETSCOM:AUS200 Cash index, we can see that the price remains on an uptrend, while balancing above a medium-term tentative upside support line taken from the lowest point of August 2024. Despite seeing a relatively strong correction lower throughout the whole of December, the index remains resilient to downside pressure. That said, in the short-run, at the time of writing, MARKETSCOM:AUS200 is struggling to break above a key resistance area, around the 8370 barrier.
In order to shift our attention to some higher areas, a break above that key resistance area would be needed. That’s when we may see some more bulls entering the field. If such a move occurs, we might start aiming for the current highest zone, near the 8522 hurdle.
For the downside scenario, we will take a more conservative approach and wait for a break below the previously mentioned upside line. Additionally, a drop below the current lowest point of January, at around 8131 area may invite more bears into the market, potentially opening the door for a move towards the 200-day EMA and the psychological 8000 mark. If that hurdle is unable to withstand the pressure from the sellers, further declines might be possible.
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US Stocks Surge as Trump Takes Office: Will the Rally Continue?The US stock market is buzzing with excitement as President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 approaches. On Friday, January 17, the major indices saw significant gains, with:
● S&P 500 SP:SPX rose 59 points, or 1%
● Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI increased 335 points, or 0.8%
● Nasdaq composite NASDAQ:IXIC surged 292 points, or 1.5%
◉ Major Sector Driving Gains
The technology sector, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, has been instrumental in this upward momentum.
◉ Investor Sentiment
Investors are optimistic about Trump's policies, but concerned about potential inflationary pressures. Experts believe Trump's administration could lead to significant growth due to:
1. Increased Government Stimulus: Trump's background as a real estate developer may result in policies designed to stimulate economic growth.
2. Technological Innovation: Rapid advancements in technology are expected to create new industries and opportunities.
3. Lower Interest Rates: There is speculation that Trump may implement lower interest rates to further encourage economic expansion.
Overall, the market is cautiously optimistic, with investors closely monitoring Trump's policies.
Nasdaq - This Can Still Be A Fakeout!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is starting to slow down:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
A couple of months ago, the Nasdaq perfectly broke above the channel resistance trendline again, attempting the creation of another parabolic rally. However bulls are not flexing their muscles properly so this breakout attempt could still turn into a devastating fakeout.
Levels to watch: $20.000, $17.000, $30.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
DXY STRONG UPTREND|LONG|
✅DXY is trading in an uptrend
Along the rising support line
Which makes me bullish biased
And the index is about to retest the rising support
Thus, a rebound and a move up is expected
With the target of retesting the level above at 110.289
LONG🚀
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$USIRYYY -U.S Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:USIRYY
December/2024
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-The annual inflation rate in the US accelerated for the third consecutive month to 2.9% in December, as expected.
On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations of 0.3%.
However, annual core inflation slightly decreased to 3.2% from 3.3%, below the anticipated 3.3%. The monthly core rate also eased to 0.2% from 0.3%, in line with expectations.
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
December/2024
source: Office for National Statistics
-Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November.
Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels.
Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%).
Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%.
The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
USDT.DIntroduction
The analysis of Tether Dominance (USDT Dominance) is one of the most essential tools for predicting overall trends in the cryptocurrency market. This metric plays a crucial role in understanding investor behavior, particularly during periods when the market leans towards liquidity or transitions into a bullish phase. This report delves into the technical aspects of Tether Dominance, offering a detailed review of its current state and outlining potential future scenarios. It serves as a valuable resource for millions of investors seeking informed decision-making.
USDT Dominance Analysis
Definition and Importance of USDT Dominance
USDT Dominance reflects the percentage of the stablecoin USDT's market share relative to the total cryptocurrency market.
🔹 Increase in Dominance: Indicates investor preference for holding cash, often signaling market downturns.
🔹 Decrease in Dominance: Suggests capital is flowing into cryptocurrencies, signaling potential price growth.
Technical Overview
1. Breakout of the Ascending Channel
✅ Current Status:
USDT Dominance has broken below its ascending channel and entered a consolidation range.
✅ Range Box Details:
Upper Limit: Green Zone (6.17 - 6.53)
Lower Limit: Red Zone (3.73 - 3.99)
2. Price Target Based on Broken Channel
🔸 Bearish Target Estimate:
The projection based on the broken ascending channel suggests that USDT Dominance might drop to the gray support zone (2.99 - 3.16).
Possible Scenarios
Bearish Scenario
📉 Condition: Breaking below the red support zone (3.73 - 3.99).
📉 Target: A decline towards the gray support zone (2.99 - 3.16).
📉 Market Impact: Bitcoin and altcoin prices may rise as capital exits USDT and flows into digital assets.
Bullish Scenario
📈 Condition: Holding the red support zone and moving back toward the green resistance zone (6.17 - 6.53).
📈 Market Impact: Crypto prices may decline as demand for USDT increases.
Daily Timeframe Triangle Pattern
🔺 Observation: A triangle pattern has formed on the daily timeframe.
🔺 Prediction: A downward breakout is more likely, aligning with the bearish scenario.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
1️⃣ Overall Trend: The trend remains bearish unless key resistance levels are broken.
2️⃣ Critical Levels:
Red Support Zone: 3.73 - 3.99
Gray Support Zone: 2.99 - 3.16
3️⃣ Trading Decisions: Focus on higher timeframes and confirmation of breakouts before making decisions.
4️⃣ Market Impact: The breakout or defense of critical USDT Dominance levels will have a significant influence on Bitcoin and altcoin movements.
🎯 Recommendation: Considering the bearish trend, approach bullish scenarios cautiously and prioritize confirmation of breakouts for accurate decision-making.
DOW JONES: contact with the 4 month Support Zone. Strong hold.Dow Jones approached the oversold limit today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.566, MACD = -404.260, ADX = 33.712) as it hit the S1 Zone, which is in effect since late September 2024. The last test of this Zone (November 4th 2024) also coincided with the 4H RSI getting oversold (under 30.000) and the price was also trading inside a Channel Down. By early next week, we expect the index to initiate a similar rebound, aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,300).
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S&P500 bottomed on its Falling Wedge. Strong short term upside. S&P500 / SPX is trading inside a Falling Wedge since the November 19th low and today hit the pattern's bottom.
This has coincided with the 4hour RSI hitting the 30.00 oversold limit.
Every time this has take place, the price rebounded to at least its 0.786 Fibonacci and the 4hour MA200.
This time the 0.786 Fib is very close to the top of the Falling Wedge but we can technically target the 4hour MA200 a little lower at 5950.
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