Index
SPY S&P 500 etf price after the Debt Ceiling DealSPY, the S&P 500 index etf, perfectly touched the resistance predicted in the last article:
Now I`m waiting for a retracement and considering the following puts:
2023-8-18 expiration date
$408 strike price
$4.50
Of course, it`s not trading advice!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
NCR road to around 30The decline seen in the stock in April and early May was halted by the 30 level of the 14-day RSI (purple line) and better-than-expected news. Currently, it is on an upward trajectory, crossing the 50-day EMA (gray line) and retesting this level. This provides support for attempting to surpass the 200-day EMA (turquoise line) at around 25.5. The question is whether we can sustainably stay above it.
In the first instance, the target price is $26, and if it successfully retests the 200-day moving average, it could strengthen up to $30 by the end of June.
In the analysis, the yellow line represents the 20-day BB (Bollinger Bands).
RECL : RESPECTING H & S PATTERN As given in previous analysis, price target for h& s pattern for RECL is arround 187. As this view is on weekly basis target too can achieved may be 4 to 6 weeks. But there are many stops in between where RECL can revert. After 126 Rs break out Recl had moved 20 Rs ie 17 % . Normally stock mo e up 20 %, so 3 percent ie 3 Rs upside is remains. It is confirmed by Fibonacci extention level 1.272. So point is RECL is approaching resistance (short term).
RECL stock if we see in daily chart, it jump 10 to 10 to 15 Rs in 2 ,3 days settle there for next 2 3 days and again come down 10 Rs. This range is maintain for 2 to 3 weeks and then break out. Point here is book 25% profit near 147and re enter
136 to138. If it move above e 147, it can go up to 155. as it is 1.414 fibonacci level book another 50 % of remai ing and re enter at 145 again. Don't sell all as it 8s n9t necessary that recl should maintain its past moves.
SPX: Weak Market & Bearish Continuation
The strict beauty of the chart is a reflection of the fierce eternal battle between the bulls and bears and right now I can clearly see that the bears are taking over so we will bend to the will of the crowd and sell too.
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JSE ALSI 40 Symmetrical Triangle wait for break up to 81,637Symmetrical Triangle seems to be forming on the JSE ALSI 40.
This is where price constricts into a triangle that is not facing up or down.
We now need the price to break above the Apex, which will send the price higher.
The beauty about Symmetrical Triangles, is that they are generally continuation patterns to the prior trend.
With the up flag pole before the triangle confirmed, means we will expect a break up.
Price>200
RSI>50
Target 81,637
Nifty Approaching SupportLast 3 days nifty is giving lower high . Today nifty was not able to break yesterdays high for last 2hrs. This is making weaker. Hold short till yesterday's high is broken and Sq up short at 18342.View for short nifty is achieved. We will have to wait for next view till Monday.
Nikkei (NKD) Looking to Complete Wave 5 of Elliott Wave ImpulseShort term Elliott Wave in Nikkei (NKD) suggests that cycle from 1.3.2023 low is progressing as a 5 waves Elliott Wave impulse. Up from 1.3.2023 low, wave 1 ended at 28715 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 26285. Wave 3 rally ended at 31695 as 1 hour chart below shows. Dips in wave 4 unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave (a) ended at 31180 and rally in wave (b) ended at 31405. Wave (c) lower ended at 31075 and this ended wave ((w)). Rally in wave ((x)) completed at 31450. Index resumed lower again in wave ((y)) with internal subdivision as a double three in lesser degree.
Down from wave ((x)), wave (w) ended at 30940 and rally in wave (x) ended at 31155. Decline in wave (y) ended at 30634 which completed wave ((y)) of 4. Index has since turned higher in wave 5. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 31200 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 30945. Index rallies again in wave (iii) towards 31345 and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 31185. Expect Index to extend higher to end wave (v) of ((i)). Afterwards, it should pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct cycle from 5.31.2023 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as pivot at 30634 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
DOW TAKING SUPPORT.From last three-day Dow is taking support of red trend line. Dow is trading with 500 point range. After big move on Monday Dow is consolidating for last three days. It is tendency of index/stock that after big move it consolidate, trading range become narrow and then burst. Up or Down. Todays chart is self explained. 26th and 30th May top is around 33200 and low is 32586 on 25th 32709 today. If todays low is not broken then this is beginning of higher low pattern.
1 SL was lowered to 32700 yesterday which Dow had respected.
2 At Begening of lower high, risk redward ratio is favorable , long can be initiated with 32700 SL. If trade goes in favorable trailing sL of 100 pts can be maintained. If SL triggered reverse trade can be favorable.
Elliott Wave View: DAX Pullback in ProgressShort term Elliott Wave View in DAX shows that the Index ended wave (3) at 16333.28. It is now pulling back in wave (4). Internal subdivision of the pullback is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (3), wave ((i)) ended at 16179.14 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 16224.32. Index then resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 15802.86 and rally in wave ((iv)) ended at 15872.60. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 15726.5 which completed wave A.
Index then did a corrective wave B rally which unfolded as another zigzag in lesser degree. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 15860.37 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 15726.74. Index then rallied higher in wave ((c)) towards 16079.73. This completed wave B. Index then resumes lower in wave C with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 15925.22 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 16058.43. Expect Index to extend lower within wave ((iii)), then rally in wave ((iv)) followed by another leg lower in wave ((v)). This should complete wave C and (4). Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave A which comes at 15103.6 – 15476.8. Near term, as far as pivot at 16333.28 high stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
GER40 possible LongIt looks like Ger40 might be forming an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, which could potentially indicate a rise in price.
The resistance Trendline was recently broken and retested, and we're now waiting for the neckline to be broken to gain momentum towards the upside.
It's important to keep in mind that we'll want to see the candle close above the neckline for confirmation.
To avoid any potential losses, it's best to wait until the candles have closed before making any moves.
Additionally, there's a small gap to fill between $420 and $421 that could be worth keeping an eye on.
US500: Expecting Bullish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the US500 pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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DOW ; WAIT AND WATCH In continuation uation to yesterdays analysis, from todays candle stick formation we observe
1 Dow is trading below new emerging uptrend line (green).
2. Dow is trading near red downtrend line which is now support line.
3. Till Dow is not trading below red line we cannot conclude false breakout.
4. Till now low of 24 and 26th May is not given up (32750), which is our SL.
5. MacD is in sale zone , if it continue to go below today's level then there is problem. Dow may not hold support.
6. Dow is again at 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level.
Yesterday given, risk trader could go long with SL 32750. Dow is near 32750. If for 30 min it doesn't recover and remain below 32750 then this k SL is triggered.
Conclusion
WAIT AND WATCH TILL 32750 AND 33100 levels.
Trade confirmation sell below shooting star pattern. Long above 33200
DOW : WAIT & WATCH STRATEGY.After confirmation of shooting star pattern, Dow is in consolidation phase as it has not broken yesterday high. Long position was suggested above yesterday high, which not yet trigger. Currently Dow is trading just above red downtrend line. New uptrend line (green lines ) is emerging . Risk reward ratio is favorable for long positions . SL is if Dow break below green support lines crossing red downtrend line. MacD is below 0 line and signal line, but at this point MacD is not to be considered as it is laggard indicator. Risk traders can initiate long with strict stop, other wise its better to wait till Fed and Debt ceilings decession. Confirmation of trade is long above yesterday high ans short below shooting star candle pattern.