Indexes
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Historical Structure to Watch 💵
US Dollar is unstoppable.
The index keeps growing like crazy.
Here are the key levels that I spotted from where we may see retracements:
Analyzing a weekly time frame, I spotted an expanding wedge pattern.
In the past, the price perfectly respected its boundaries.
The market is approaching that at the moment.
I believe that the market may start a correctional movement from that.
The midterm goal for buyers is 120 - 121 resistance cluster based on 20 years' highs.
Pay close attention from that area, probabilities will be high that the market will react to that.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
VIX Weekly Rally?The VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index of the S&P 500 Index.
The VIX is generally inverse of the Market's Movement, specifically the S&P
Volatility is not stable for markets and acts similar to a greed/fear indicator for the markets.
The Higher the Volatility (VIX) The greater the Fear
VIX has been in an uptrend the past few months since the Bear Market Kicked off earlier in 2022
Vix Uptrend = Market DownTrend & an increase of volatility
The VIX has been forming this pennant-type resistance and support, and now has been testing the upper ends of this. The weekly chart on the VIX is creating a breakout with Momentum Squeezing thru to the upside as well.
TTM_SQUEEZE Represents price consolidation, and breakouts through momentum indications similar to MACD.
We are currently seeing a flip to the upside in the weekly chart.
This would be bad for financial markets and can definitely indicate another large pullback coming with little VIX Resistance above until $40 Zone.
We have not 100% broken these yet though, so patience is key and seeing how price reacts around these levels is key.
DAX Index: Breakout & Bearish Continuation
After a bearish accumulation, DAX Index broke and closed below a key horizontal demand zone.
That violation may push the market much lower.
I suppose that the index may drop to 11600 level.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P500 INDEX (SPY) Your Trading Plan For Next Week
Hey traders,
SPY reached a demand cluster based on the year's low.
Analyzing a price action, I spotted a harmonic ABCD pattern.
Its completion point matches perfectly with the underlined structure.
To buy with a confirmation, watch a parallel channel on 4H time frame.
Its bullish breakout will be a trigger to buy the index.
The goal for buyers will be 3750 then.
Remember, that a bearish breakout of the underlined zone will trigger a further decline.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P500 Index: Key Levels to Watch This Week 📈
With the yesterday's rate hike, SPY dropped again.
Here are the key levels for you to watch.
Support 1: major falling broken trend line
Support 2: 3720 - 3750 area
Support 3: 3636 - 3676 area
Resistance 1: 3905 - 3918 area
Resistance 2: 4117 - 4145 area
The price is currently approaching a confluence zone based on Support 1 & 2.
I believe that we may see a pullback from that.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Dow Jones Index (US30): Bearish Outlook For Next Week 📈
Hey traders,
Since the middle of August, Dow Jones is trading in a minor bearish trend.
The price keeps setting new lower lows and lower highs.
This week, the price set a new lower low lower close again.
I believe that it will push the price lower.
Next support on focus - 30400
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Nasdaq-100 Index (US100) Bearish Trend Continues
Yesterday was a very bearish day for many Dollar-related instruments.
Nasdaq Index closed below a local daily structure support.
Moreover, the todays daily candle opened with a gap down,
Signifying a strong bearish pressure.
I believe that the index will keep falling.
Next support - 11500.
Also, remember that 80% of the time gaps tend to be filled.
So be prepared for a retest of a broken structure first.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
NASDAQ Island Reversal on HourlyPicture perfect island reversal following higher than projected CPI figures. I'm thinking the bear market relief rally is complete.
Bought a little SQQQ on Friday 9/9 which was a day too early.
I think we'll have a strong downtrend in the near term at least until the Sept FOMC meeting.
S&P500 Index: Key Levels to Watch Next Week 📈
Hey traders,
Here is my latest structure analysis for S&P500 index.
Resistance 1: 4080 - 4130 area
Resistance 2: 4195 - 4216 area
Resistance 3: 4308 - 4327 area
Support 1: 3880 - 3940 area
Support 2: 3720 - 3780 area
Support 3: 3638 - 3675 area
As I predicted, the price perfectly respected Support 1.
Now, the goal for buyers is Resistance 1.
I will look for shorting opportunities from that resistance.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
US30 Midweek Intraday Forecast 9/7/22This is a little bit different from my usual. Current looking for an intraday setup on U30. We can see price full respecting 3100, in addition to a bullish trend that is being built on the lower timeframe. If the price action exceeds and closes above the key level marked on the chart, we could start seeing this bullish momentum changing the higher timeframe sentiment. Currently, the smart trade is still short.
S&P500 Index: Your Trading Plan For Today 📈
S&P500 index is trading on a key daily structure support.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that structure on 1H time frame,
I spotted a consolidation and ranging market.
The price is coiling around 3936 - 3941 minor resistance.
I will be waiting for an hourly candle close above that structure to buy the index.
Goal will be 4010.
Stop loss will lie below the lows.
However, if the price respects the minor resistance and drops lower,
the trading setup will be invalid then.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P500 Index (SPY) How to Catch a Bearish Continuation? 📈
Hey traders,
From the middle of August, we see a sharp bearish wave on S&P500 index.
This week, the index reached a key daily structure support and we saw a pullback from that.
To catch a bearish continuation, wait for a bearish breakout of 3900 - 3940 area.
You need a daily candle close below that to confirm the breakout.
The market will drop at least to 3780 level then.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Consolidation/reversal area for the S&P 500?The S&P 500 sold off until June, when expectations of monetary tightening peaked. Since then, the index has powered off the June lows as the growing likelihood of recession makes it less tenable for the Fed to keep raising rates.
I suspect that interest rate expectations will continue to "drive the ship," and that stock prices will peak or consolidate whenever market expectations for a "dovish pivot" peak or consolidate.
Currently, FOMC FedWatch futures are pricing a 75% chance that the Fed will hike 50 bps in September, and a 25% chance that the Fed will hike 75 bps:
www.cmegroup.com
In November, the market is expecting a target rate of either 3% (75% chance) or 3.25% (25% chance), and in December, the market's placing about even odds that we end the year at either 3% or 3.25%. So in all, the market expects the Fed target rate to be either 75 bps or 100 bps higher than the current level by year end.
This is slightly more dovish than the Fed's own projections. The current Fed dot plot indicates that the median forecast by FOMC members is that they will raise the target to 3.25% by year end.
So, I think market expectations are now about where they should be. That suggests to me that most of the big gains in stocks are now behind us, and that the S&P 500's price may be entering a zone of consolidation as it approaches the 200-day EMA.
We definitely could see market expectations get even more dovish if economic data stay soft. For instance, maybe the consensus for September will move to a 25 or 50 bps hike. But if the economic data looks that bad, then the stock market may find other reasons for pessimism. A strong dovish pivot could also cause inflation expectations and commodities prices to rise again, which could throw a wet blanket on the stock market rally as well. I wouldn't expect ES to be able to get much father than 4320 without causing inflation to heat up and the Fed to flip hawkish again.
Bottom line: I think there's still some runway for stocks to move higher toward that 200-day EMA, but I wouldn't expect them to immediately go soaring off into a new bull market. More likely, they get a little more tentative here and consolidate for a while in this range.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week 📈
Hey traders,
Here is my latest analysis for Dow Jones Index:
Resistance 1: 32320 - 32460 area
Resistance 2: 32770 - 32910 area
Resistance 3: 33250 - 33470 area
Support 1: 31390 - 31700 area
Support 2: 29675 - 30380 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
The price is approaching a Support 1 at the moment.
Being quite oversold, the index may retrace from that.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️