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Nasdaq-100 Index (US100) Bearish Trend Continues Yesterday was a very bearish day for many Dollar-related instruments. Nasdaq Index closed below a local daily structure support. Moreover, the todays daily candle opened with a gap down, Signifying a strong bearish pressure. I believe that the index will keep falling. Next support - 11500. Also, remember that 80% of the time gaps tend to be filled. So be prepared for a retest of a broken structure first. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by VasilyTrader
10
S&P500 Index: Key Levels to Watch Next Week 📈 Hey traders, Here is my latest structure analysis for S&P500 index. Resistance 1: 4080 - 4130 area Resistance 2: 4195 - 4216 area Resistance 3: 4308 - 4327 area Support 1: 3880 - 3940 area Support 2: 3720 - 3780 area Support 3: 3638 - 3675 area As I predicted, the price perfectly respected Support 1. Now, the goal for buyers is Resistance 1. I will look for shorting opportunities from that resistance. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:SPX500Short
by VasilyTrader
4
S&P500 Index: Your Trading Plan For Today 📈 S&P500 index is trading on a key daily structure support. Analyzing the reaction of the price to that structure on 1H time frame, I spotted a consolidation and ranging market. The price is coiling around 3936 - 3941 minor resistance. I will be waiting for an hourly candle close above that structure to buy the index. Goal will be 4010. Stop loss will lie below the lows. However, if the price respects the minor resistance and drops lower, the trading setup will be invalid then. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:SPX500Long
by VasilyTrader
8
S&P500 Index (SPY) How to Catch a Bearish Continuation? 📈 Hey traders, From the middle of August, we see a sharp bearish wave on S&P500 index. This week, the index reached a key daily structure support and we saw a pullback from that. To catch a bearish continuation, wait for a bearish breakout of 3900 - 3940 area. You need a daily candle close below that to confirm the breakout. The market will drop at least to 3780 level then. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:SPX500Short
by VasilyTrader
4
Consolidation/reversal area for the S&P 500?The S&P 500 sold off until June, when expectations of monetary tightening peaked. Since then, the index has powered off the June lows as the growing likelihood of recession makes it less tenable for the Fed to keep raising rates. I suspect that interest rate expectations will continue to "drive the ship," and that stock prices will peak or consolidate whenever market expectations for a "dovish pivot" peak or consolidate. Currently, FOMC FedWatch futures are pricing a 75% chance that the Fed will hike 50 bps in September, and a 25% chance that the Fed will hike 75 bps: www.cmegroup.com In November, the market is expecting a target rate of either 3% (75% chance) or 3.25% (25% chance), and in December, the market's placing about even odds that we end the year at either 3% or 3.25%. So in all, the market expects the Fed target rate to be either 75 bps or 100 bps higher than the current level by year end. This is slightly more dovish than the Fed's own projections. The current Fed dot plot indicates that the median forecast by FOMC members is that they will raise the target to 3.25% by year end. So, I think market expectations are now about where they should be. That suggests to me that most of the big gains in stocks are now behind us, and that the S&P 500's price may be entering a zone of consolidation as it approaches the 200-day EMA. We definitely could see market expectations get even more dovish if economic data stay soft. For instance, maybe the consensus for September will move to a 25 or 50 bps hike. But if the economic data looks that bad, then the stock market may find other reasons for pessimism. A strong dovish pivot could also cause inflation expectations and commodities prices to rise again, which could throw a wet blanket on the stock market rally as well. I wouldn't expect ES to be able to get much father than 4320 without causing inflation to heat up and the Fed to flip hawkish again. Bottom line: I think there's still some runway for stocks to move higher toward that 200-day EMA, but I wouldn't expect them to immediately go soaring off into a new bull market. More likely, they get a little more tentative here and consolidate for a while in this range.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13
Dow Jones Index (US30): Key Levels to Watch This Week 📈 Hey traders, Here is my latest analysis for Dow Jones Index: Resistance 1: 32320 - 32460 area Resistance 2: 32770 - 32910 area Resistance 3: 33250 - 33470 area Support 1: 31390 - 31700 area Support 2: 29675 - 30380 area Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. The price is approaching a Support 1 at the moment. Being quite oversold, the index may retrace from that. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
ULong
by VasilyTrader
4
It's a dip, not a drop (says ATR) Price and range typically move in opposite directions (you will pay more for a less volatile asset). The bottom chart (Average True Range) looks like a mirror image of the top (Price). For a perfect example I'm appending the same chat but have scrolled back to the COVID drop. The ATR is in a larger downtrend that remains intact. ** It did not break out today. ** Until that changes, a price reversal remains a distinct possibility.. This is not a prediction. It's a reminder not to assume anything . NOTE **Chart shows the combined 3 index. They are weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see www.barchart.com When price and ATR jive:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by gb50k
46
Dow Jones Index (US30): Important Update For Next Week 📈 Have you seen that bearish move on Friday? The market closed, testing a lower boundary of a key support on a daily. If the price breaks and closes below that on a daily next week, I will expect a strong bearish continuation. Next goals will be 12200 / 11700 I will post an update once I spot a confirmed breakout! ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by VasilyTrader
11
Where are you now? The mean of volatility adjusted indexes.The summary: Stocks fell ("Faded"?) out of the main upward channel. Bulls can hang there hats on the ATR that has not confirmed a reversal. Chart shows the mean of 3 US stock indexes divided by their respective volatility index: SPX / VIX , NDQ / VXN , DJA / VXD. This is one approach to putting all 3 on a single scale and is conceptually similar to Z-score, Sharpe ration and Normalization, to name a few** Getting all 3 on the same scale is useful for both comparison and, as in the present chart, aggregation. (SPX appears above on top for reference.) Summary: Last session "stocks" fell out of the main upward channel. They have also fallen bellow the long term median (red dots). However, there are bullish features as well: ATR indicator: Typically inverse stocks Were *not* seeing the same "break out" (added Regression channel +/-2STD) It is not yet in free fall and there's plenty of structure to the left for support and pullbacks. Notes: ** There are issues with taking the mean of any of these statistics. For example two Zscores of 0 and 3. It's true that their mean is 1.5 but there are very few valid conclusions one can draw from that outcome. It will have a "smoothing" effect (mean reversion) which is not entirely undesirable for our purposes.
SP:SPX
by gb50k
Dow Jones Index (US30): Key Levels to Watch Next Week 📈 Hey traders, US30 nicely reacted to a key horizontal resistance that we spotted last week. I believe that the index may keep falling at least to 33275 - 33487 support next week. The reaction of the price to that green structure will clarify the future direction of the market. I will keep monitoring the price action and will post an update once I see a decent setup to trade. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
UShort
by VasilyTrader
7