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Indexes

Dow Jones Index (US30): Very Bearish Outlook 📈 Hey traders, After a 1-month long consolidation, US30 broke and closed below key daily structure support. Taking into consideration that the market is trading in a long-term bearish trend, chances are high to see a bearish trend continuation next week. Next goal for sellers is a 32200 - 32700 demand cluster. I will post an update once I open a short position. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
UShort
by VasilyTrader
21
1-year special: Indexes and oscillatorsDear readers and TradingView, today, it has been one year since our first publication. Therefore, we would like to express our gratitude for your immense support. Additionally, we prepared an education topic on indexes and oscillators for you. Indexes Indexes are cumulative sums of data, like price, volume, etc., continuously measured over time. Indexes are not limited to the boundaries like oscillators are, showing absolute changes. The relationship between price trend and index trend is more relevant than the value of the index itself. Indexes' forecasting strength lies in spotting the divergence between price and index trends. Therefore, the use of indexes is suitable for analyzing trending markets. Oscillators Oscillators are limited to specific past periods, and unlike indexes, they tend to oscillate within certain boundaries. Although, oscillators without boundaries also exist. The opposing limits usually represent contrary conditions in the market. Therefore, an oscillator's value is relevant for technical analysis as it has interpretative meaning. As oscillators oscillate, they tend to reach upper and lower bound extremes, called overbought and oversold zones. These extremes are implied by the value of 70 for overbought and 30 for oversold conditions. Although, oscillators do not always have to reach extremes near their boundaries. The study of trendlines, channels and patterns is applicable to oscillators. In addition, oscillators can be used to spot the divergence between price trend and oscillator trend. Furthermore, oscillators can be used in both trending and non-trending markets. However, oscillators also tend to perform well in the trading range as they can indicate potential reversals. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of PepsiCo stock. Additionally, the chart shows the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is probably one of the most famous momentum oscillators. The general area between 30 and 70 has a purple background. Absolute extremes below 30 and beyond 70 have a white background. Overbought Overbought is the market condition when it, or a security, is being expensive to its relative past time. On a graph, it is illustrated as an upper zone. Oversold Oversold is the condition of a market or particular security when it is being cheap to its relative past period. In other words, it is the opposite of the overbought condition. On a chart, it is depicted as the lower zone. Overbought and oversold level readjustments Overbought and oversold levels should be readjusted according to the strength of a prevalent trend. In an unusually strong uptrend, the overbought zone can be readjusted from 70 to 80 as the oscillator tends to peak at a higher value in such instances. Similarly, the oversold zone can be readjusted from 30 to 40 because an oscillator tends to bottom at a lower value in a strong uptrend. In a powerful downtrend, the overbought level can be readjusted from 70 to 60 as the oscillator tends to reverse sooner. Again similarly, the oversold level can be readjusted from 30 to 20 because an oscillator tends to bottom out at a lower value. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 depicts the daily chart of American Airlines stock and 21-day Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average. Leading and lagging indicators The latest era of advanced computerized technology allowed easy usage of indexes and oscillators. These tools are also often called indicators. Technical analysis differentiates between leading and lagging indicators. Leading indicators are observable variables that predict a change in another variable, like price, volatility, etc., with which they are correlated. Leading indicators are used for forecasting purposes. In contrast to leading indicators, lagging indicators exhibit change only after the change in another correlated variable has already occurred. In other words, they trail change in another variable with some latency. Therefore, lagging indicators are good to confirm the prevailing trend. Divergence When a trend is prevalent, and two indexes (or an index and price) are going simultaneously either up or down, they exhibit a positive correlation. However, when this correlation breaks and one index (or the price) keeps going up while another index reverses down, the divergence is said to occur. Technical analysts should pay attention to this instance as it can sometimes foreshadow an upcoming trend reversal. However, there are many instances when divergence occurs, and the reversal in price trend fails to materialize. For this reason, some analysts like to implement the concept of double divergence. Illustration 1.03 The illustration above depicts the daily chart of Coca-Cola stock in a weekly time frame. The divergence between the direction of price movement and the RSI movement is observable. Relationship between the price and the indicator Technical tools are often used to predict the next move in price. However, there are instances when this relationship reverses and price starts to precede the movement of a particular indicator. This phenomenon is called reversal (not to be interchanged with the reversal in trend). Crossover Crossover occurs when the oscillator crosses over a significant level or crosses another oscillator. Important values are often represented by numbers such as 0, 30, 50, and 70. Other significant values can be either in the middle of the scale or near the boundaries of an oscillator. A trend is typically bullish when the oscillator moves above 0. When the oscillator moves below 0, it is generally considered to be bearish. Mechanical traders favor crossovers because they are easily observed, and their implementation helps avoid emotions that could potentially interfere with the trader's decision-making. Illustration 1.04 The picture above shows the daily chart of Glencore stock and MACD. Bullish crossovers occurred when MACD passed through the midpoint indicated by the number 0. This was followed by the beginning of the rally. Utility of indexes and oscillators Technical tools such as indexes and oscillators can be used to analyze a large spectrum of assets. They apply to stocks, commodities, ETFs, futures, currencies, and even cryptocurrencies. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXEducation
by Tradersweekly
TRADE OF THE WEEK | Classic Trend-Following Trading 💰 Hey traders, Dollar index is trading in a long-term bullish trend. After the index set a new high at the beginning of March the market started to consolidate within a horizontal trading range on a daily. I was looking for its bullish breakout as a trigger to buy. Daily candle close above the resistance of the range confirmed the breakout. On a retest, I was looking for an intraday confirmation to buy. My confirmation was a tiny inverted h&s pattern on an hourly time frame. After the price formed a confirmation pattern, the market bounced sharply. Great winner!!! Did you catch this move? ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
TVC:DXYLong
by VasilyTrader
15
MarketBreakdown | USDJPY, USDCAD, Dollar Index, WTI Crude Oil Hey traders, here is a brief technical outlook of 4 peculiar instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ USDJPY - 4H time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵 The pair is approaching a key weekly structure resistance. Being quite overbought the price broke and closed below a support line of a rising parallel channel on 4H. I believe that soon we will see a correctional move. 2️⃣ USDCAD - 4H time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 As you know, for a quite long period of time we are looking for a confirmation to sell USDCAD. The pair was coiling for some time retesting a broken major weekly trend line. Yesterday the market started to fall. Bears broke a rising wedge pattern on 4H. I believe that USDCAD will go even lower. 3️⃣ Dollar Index (DXY) - Weekly time frame 💵 The market is retracing from a key weekly structure resistance. Locally I am bearish and expect a further decline. 4️⃣ WTI Crude Oil - 4H time frame 🛢️ Crude oil is very bullish this week. Reaching a strong daily structure support the price bounced and broke a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern. Further bullish continuation is expected now. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
9
NQ will fall to 13,615 before finding supportMy analysis shows the global and US markets are contracting HARD. Be prepared for the NQ to fall to the lower GREEN price channel before finding any real support. I focus on longer-term analysis, broad market cycles, and technical analysis. This move is just starting and the US Fed is attempting to burst the asset price bubble. Stay protective related to your assets. Move to CASH if you are unsure where to invest. The NQ may bounce a bit near this current support level, but I see it falling to 13,615 before attempting to find any real support.
FX:NAS100Short
by BradMatheny
3
DJI potential for dip! | 11th April 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding by a descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 34895.37 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 34172.18 in line with 78.6% Fibonacci Projection . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
TVC:DJI
by FXCM
1