Get started

Indexes

4-digit Dow (DJIA) - SHORT; Let the (long!!) descent begin!As the ol' southern colloquialism would have it: "Darn theng (The Dow) is fixin' to be done foh, rat cheer, right about naw!"... And this where the Long March (to < 9999) bound to start, rather sooner than later. (There is also a perfect Fib. Time Cycle lurking in the background. - Look closely!) If one is afraid to Short the index outright, no problem! - You're in luck. Just (continue to) SHORT the DJIA/Gold Ratio that is already well on it's way, still with miles and miles to go (down), with no end in sight. Here is that post;
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by Nemo_Confidat
10
If you don't know the difference ...... you are in trouble! - Howard Marx In the late '60s and early '70s if you didn't own the Nifty-Fifty, there was something indescribably wrong with your portfolio - or you. The Nifty 50 stocks got their notoriety in the bull markets of the 1960s and early 1970s. They became known as "one-decision" stocks because investors were told by individuals such as University of Pennsylvania professor Jeremy Siegel that "they could buy and hold them forever." In case anyone is interested how the "Nifty 50" fared during the bear markets of 1973-1974; Blue Chip Performance: 1973-1974 Du Pont -58.4% Eastman Kodak -62.1% Exxon -46.9% Ford Motor -64.8% General Electric -60.5% General Motors -71.2% Goodyear -63.0% IBM -58.8% McDonalds -72.4% Mobil -59.8% Motorola -54.3% PepsiCo -67.0% Philip Morris -50.3% Polaroid -90.2% Sears -66.2% Sony -80.9% Westinghouse -83.1% Just to recap; ... as well as; U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) www.hussmanfunds.com U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has surpassed all previous records (by a very wide margin!), not only by nominal measures but also in relative terms! www.hussmanfunds.com
TVC:DJIEducation
by Nemo_Confidat
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Key Zone to Watch 💵 Bears keep pushing US dollar. Since April the index lost almost 4% of its value. Ahead is a current year's low. 89.2 - 89.7 is a historical demand area. I believe that the index may bounce from that structure. Your confirmation will be a bullish breakout of a falling wedge pattern. It will signify the willingness of buyers to buy. In case of a bearish breakout of the yellow cluster, the further decline will be expected though.
TVC:DXYLong
by VasilyTrader
5
DJIA/Gold Ratio & 30-year Bonds/Russell2000 in Phase Transition!The Dow Jones (IA) / Gold Ratio and the U.S. 30-year Treasury Bonds / Russell2000 Index Ratio are coinciding at key levels. Both ratios are at historic turning points, foreshadowing their respective Phase Transitions! (and as such, indicating highly volatile, multi-standard deviation moves in the global equity indexes.) The title chart is an extended (120 years) view of the ongoing DJIA / Gold analysis, this time applying the same metric as used in the earlier US 30-year Treasuries / Russell2000 Ratio analysis; ... For easy comparisons. U.S. Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP now having exceeded 2.75 while the Historic Norm (not the low) remains 0.78 - i.e. ~70% below current levels(!!) - , it is rather self-evident that these phase transitions are likely to result in major (equity) market declines, and on a global scale. U.S. Margin Debt / U.S. GDP has also surpassed all previous, historic records (by a very wide margin!), not only in nominal measures but also in relative terms! I.e. Once this trap door opens (forced liquidations??... The most likely, least resistance path, catalyst) an initial 20%-25% decline in the SP500 would be well within the minimum expected.
TVC:DJI
by Nemo_Confidat
22
BTC to $40K by the SummerMost people in the #cryptocurrencies chat witnessed me call out BTC's drop from $59K to $49K.. Based on what I've analyzed on these charts, if there's no hard bounce at $46K-$48K, then BTC will plunge to $40K by the summer (or sooner). If we begin to close under $40K, then institutions will likely short off their BTC in order to buy at a more stable bottom. BTC and U.S. indexes are positively correlated. Most average American consumers are not yet aware of the power of BTC and crypto. I don't see consumers rushing to purchase BTC in the event that their 401Ks are tanking with the indexes. The only people who will own BTC at the apex of an inevitable crash of U.S. indexes, real estate, and thus cryptocurrencies -- will be those who were educated enough to SELL HIGH & BUY LOW. -Ri$ky
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by risktrader95
6
Stochastic OscillatorA stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator. Trading Strategy: ✔ Recognise the trend: 👉 In a trendy market only open position in the direction of trend. 👉In a range market you can use both buy and sell signals. ✔ Upper band and lower band indicating different things in different market conditions: 👉In a trendy market upper and lower bands show the momentum in the market for example in an uptrend if the indicator is above 80 it means that buyers have the momentum. 👉In a range market, however upper and lower bands showing the overbought and over-sold areas. So, we may go long if we see oversold in a range market and go short if we see a over-bought situation. ✔ Divergence is another important strategy to adopt when using stochastic indicator as a divergence may indicate a trend reversal.
Education
by apadanaforex
DXY (Dollar Index): Watch Carefully!!! Potential Bullish Move Hey traders, DXY nicely bounced from strong horizontal structure support last week. Taking into consideration that the index remains bullish from the beginning of this year, we remain bullish biased. On a 4H, the price is stuck within an ascending triangle formation. Breakout of its horizontal resistance will lead to a further bullish continuation. In case of a bearish breakout of 91.7, the setup will be invalid.
TVC:DXYLong
by VasilyTrader
8
NASDAQ (NAS100USD) How to Catch the Trend? US100 reached a peculiar confluence zone. We see a perfect match between a major rising trend line and horizontal structure support. On that, the price is currently trading in sideways and formed a horizontal decision range. To catch a bullish continuation, wait for a bullish breakout of its resistance (4H candle close above). Then buy aggressively or on a retest. Goals: 13300 13867 In case of a bearish breakout of the range, further decline will be explected.
ULong
by VasilyTrader
12
Equity sentiment suddenly got very bearish this weekSentiment Is Suddenly Very Bearish on Equities, SPX, NDX, RUT It's been a volatile few weeks of trading as the S&P 500 pulled back a bit (and the Nasdaq pulled back a bit more). Bearish sentiment has grown as the price dipped. The $CPCE equity put/call ratio rose sharply this week to levels last seen in March 2020, near the beginning of the pandemic. The current put/call ratio on the $SPY S&P 500 ETF is 1.5. That's actually better than the average for the last 30 days (1.7), but it's still quite negative. Sentiment is even more negative on the $QQQ Nasdaq ETF, with a put/call ratio of 2.2. The $IWM Russell 2000 small cap ETF is looking even worse, at 2.3. Stock market options traders seem to think that interest rates will continue to rise and the stock market bubble is soon to burst. A lot of the finance wonks I follow on Twitter sold into Friday's strength. However, options on the $TLT 20+ year Treasury bond ETF are sending a different signal. With a put/call ratio of 0.9, bond wonks appear to expect at least a short-term weakening of rates and a rally in bonds from here. $TLT has entered a region of fairly strong technical support: Despite Negative Sentiment, There Are Lots of Fundamental Reasons to Be Bullish To be honest, I think the bearish sentiment in equities may be premature. We've got a fourth vaccine thanks to Johnson & Johnson, with Merck slated to help provide manufacturing capacity. This means we could get all US adults vaccinated 2 months earlier than expected. Plus Merck seems on the verge of getting approval for a Covid therapeutic that could be helpful as well. The savings rate rose during the pandemic, and a lot of that "quarantined cash" will be unleashed on markets as people get vaccinated. Plus, there's more liquidity in the pipeline. We've got another round of $1400 stimulus checks coming. Markets have been worried about a federal minimum wage hike, but it doesn't look like that will happen. The stimulus bill provides $300 billion of support to state and city governments, which removes one of the big risks to the recovery: rising state and local taxes to cover budget shortfalls. Despite rising interest rates, private lending has ticked upward in recent weeks: An uptick in private lending historically has been a confirmation signal that a recession has ended, as I laid out in a previous post: Plus, the jobs numbers this week surpassed analyst expectations by a wide margin, and the ECRI leading economic index has resumed its upward trend. So economic data are signaling continued recovery ahead. The Bear Case Is About Valuations and Rising Interest Rates The bear case would seem to be threefold. First, valuations are very high. Which is absolutely true, but won't necessarily stop them from getting higher. Second, more stimulus means more inflation, which means interest rates could continue to rise. (Inflation is bullish for stocks, but rising interest are bearish. So it's a tug of war between the two, and the question is whether rising interest rates will be enough to rein inflation in. The bears are betting that it will.) And third, there's a technical case for continued market weakness, because $SPY has violated its support trend line. However, I suspect it will establish a new, less steep support line a bit below the previous one. I suppose we could see a 10% correction to the 50-day EMA: But even that feels unlikely to me, given the strength of the fundamentals. I think this correction could prove much more modest than that: Admittedly, I'm not pouring cash into this market at these valuations. But despite rising bearish sentiment, I'm pulling cash out of the market, either. In my opinion, it's likely too early for that, given the fundamentals.
C
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
13