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One last big S&P 500 meltup likelyYesterday the S&P 500 briefly made a bullish trend line cross before pulling back below the trend line. This is what you might call a "bullish rejection," because it actually got across the trend line before pulling back. Often such rejections portend that a bullish move is coming, but won't happen right away. Possibly we will see a dip to a support level before making a successful cross with a close above the trend line. I think that's the most likely outcome in the event that Trump refuses to concede and there's unrest or a protracted legal battle. Should Trump concede, I think we could see an immediate bullish trend line cross as the nation breathes a sigh of relief that there won't be rioting. Typically, the longer you spend at a resistance level, the more likely that the resistance level will be breached. So the fact that we're hovering near the trend line today rather than pulling back from it bodes well technically for getting across the line. In fundamental terms, I think it likely that there will be one last meltup on news of a new stimulus bill, whenever one materializes. The parties may wait until Senate races are decided, so that they know what their bargaining power is in negotiations. Investors, however, may not wait to start speculating on the stimulus they know is coming. With election uncertainty resolved and Q3 earnings looking pretty good overall, I think the meltup could soon begin in earnest even without any definite stimulus news. I'd caution that the market is very overvalued here-- less so if you take into account how low interest rates are, but still multiples are at historically high levels and there will likely be a correction at some point in the next couple years, especially due to multiple compression if interest rates begin to return to normal levels. (Large corrections often come in the second year of a president's term, according to election cycle theory.)
SP:SPXLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
5
US Nas 100 Index (NAS100USD): How to Catch Bullish Wave? hey traders, nas 100 is retesting a major daily/4h structure resistance. chances are high that a bullish rally will be initiated from the underlined zone. to catch that I would suggest waiting for a violation (4H candle close above) of a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern. most of the time such breakouts serve as a very strong signal. goals will be: 11974 12150 (in case of a 4h candle close below the yellow zone, setup will be invalid)
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by VasilyTrader
10
10 million Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / Hello New strategy spread. I made my initial deposit to 10 M. I was losing big money on 1 M and i thought on a scale i was trading i should add up some money on the deposit. For 10 M i trade 5000 SP and 500 DOW. For 1 M capital it should be 500 and 50 respectively and so on. It is safer. SP vs DOW. I put orders every 10 points in sp and evry 100 points in dow. lets see.. Update ONLY - Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / I Believe the sp vs DOW spread is the most profitbale for me at the moment. I will stick with it. 10 million Intermarket Spreads index ETF commodities etc / Thank you. Opening balance 25 june 2020 13 736 029 $ Closing balance 10 july 2020 13 790 860$ increase of +/- 54.000 $ I traded the EURHKD vs CHFHKD + AUDUSD vs NZDUSD . It has been less volatile than indices IMHO. I will trade bigger size and i stress less. THank you ! MAX Drawdown -10% adjusted today. Mar/2020 11.82% Feb/2020 31.94% Jan/2020 4.51% Dec/2019 1.23% Nov/2019 5.46% The way i get my numbers of unit is DOW / SP500 = 28622/3265 = 8.77 but i am biased SP. In fact i should be 9 SP and 1 DOW. BE patient is IMPORTANT. This result took me a few days. Please remember. I always spread..... Except when i am not 8-) My point is , in the SPY vs DIA for example i spread all the time and i add until it is profitable. I add once or twice per day, no more. I trade mostly SPY vs DIA vs QQQ WHEAT vs CORN others when opportunities arise. That s it. The simpler the better. Have a good week. Patience is the key IMHO. All in light size. I will trade more spread in ETF PAIRS. Employing an ETF pairs strategy may be useful when there is a disconnect between assets that are usually highly correlated. Sector, country, and index ETFs also provide opportunities for the pairs trader, usually involving going long on a strong ETF and short on a weaker one. It’s important to exit the trades when the assets realign or the trends of strong and weak assets reverse. It would also be wise to set a loss limit on each trade, and realize that markets are dynamic; relationships that existed yesterday may not necessarily exist tomorrow. MRCI encourages all traders to employ appropriate money-management techniques at all times. www.mrci.com This is a site above i use for season trading. Patience is the key. It is important to trade well, not just trade ! Bear in mind i can not trade futures on this platform as i use the minimum service. I recommend the book from MRCI. .LOG RECAP - 15:13 15-Nov-19 I spread-trade mostly. The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with the big money.” –A veteran trader, quoted in Futures Trade to Trade Well- Not Make Money. www.nasdaq.com Spread positions tend to be less risky than outright long (buy) or short (sell) positions. But not all the time. Always remember, it is not 100% full proof. Mostly WHEAT versus CORN. But others as well. This is a demo. Please read below for understanding. Money managment is important as well as patience etc... I follow more or less the spread strategy with the seasonability strategy - Keith Schap – The Complete Guide to Spread Trading The guy who spreads and makes a little every day is the one who walks away with the big money.” –A veteran trader, quoted in Futures and Toepke, Jerry. "Moore Research Center, Inc." Why Seasonals Work. McGraw-Hill, 14 May 2009. Web. 05 May 2016. Every time i enter a trade in WHEAT i enter a trade in CORN with the same amount of units. Trade accordingly your account size. The trades can last hours, days or weeks. Patience and discipline and money management. I will not lose more than 65% of the equity. I can trade every hour or other. Intercommodity Spread The Intercommodity Spread is a spread between two different commodities, but in the same delivery month. Often this spread will set-up according to seasonality or occasionally a harvest supply/demand picture. The Corn-Wheat Spread The Intercommodity Spread is our focus for today! Specifically, we will analyze the merits of the Corn-Wheat Spread going into the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2011. This is a trade that I have monitored since the 80’s. I believe that it was first notable in the mid 60’s. The beauty of taking a classic trade and reviewing the trends and history of the trade saves time in research and previous observations may even save money on potential variances to watch for. In this particular spread, we note that July may be a strong month for corn as the weather conditions, plantings acreage, export numbers may still be unknown. The crop is still vulnerable until toward harvest which is in the fall. On the other hand, the harvest for the soft red winter wheat may be in July, allowing the market to regard the saturation of a harvested crop. One may look at the months; March, July and September contracts for this particular spread trade and select another, but this is the anatomy of the spread, not to be confused with a trade recommendation. As a matter of fact, this spread may be reversed at another time of the year. June may be a time frame to review the Wheat-Corn Spread. These grains are both feed product and may also be affected by livestock production trends, global supply-demand figures, weather conditions and basis for the farmer. The wheat is typically a heavier protein cereal, while corn does not vary to the extreme. In modern times patents on the seeds of varied grains has become big business. The USDA regulates the delivery, grades and contract size regular for delivery. The seeds and fertilizers must also endure disease and pests. There are Government Subsidy programs as well in some cases to control the crops being planted. In recent times, Africa has been know to lease land for crops to fulfill some of their required grain inventories in countries such as China. Technically, it is good to pull up a spread chart to monitor the merit of the potential move. One may select their Indicators to best confirm an entry. There is no audio in my videos. This is a demo ac. I have a real ac with oanda. .LOG Trading Commodity Seasonal Patterns There is no such thing as a sure thing, but ignoring this chronological behaviour of seasonality and the tools readily available to help predict these patterns is a mistake for futures traders. A knowledgeable broker who is MRCI equipped and spread savvy is a keen idea if you want to get into trading seasonal commodities. The more tools you utilize within using the approach of seasonality trading can help you in whatever commodity or commodities you wish to trade. Trading Commodity Seasonal Patterns Every calendar year there are different seasons. It is how we plan our lives. Weather is the first to come to mind, but there are holidays, sports, shopping and many more that help break up the monotony of our day to day patterns. The commodities market is no different. Just as you use a calendar to plan and differentiate Thanksgiving from Opening Day in baseball, you can use the same calendar to blueprint possibly when wheat futures will be high and copper prices low. Traders can use these seasonal patterns to their advantage because it allows a certain degree of predictability of future price movements, rather than being bombarded by an endless stream of often contradictory market noise. Now of course there are other factors too numerous to list that can affect the futures markets, but certain conditions and events reoccur at annual intervals and help traders anticipate where the market is headed. Seasonality Of Futures Although not 100% accurate-as any weatherman will tell you-weather is, in fact, the chief contributor to seasonal futures trading. The annual cycle from warm to cold weather and then back again affects all the agricultural commodity markets as their supply and demand coincides with the planting and harvesting seasons. However, the annual weather pattern can stretch its power to all the commodities. For example, demand for heating oil typically rises as cold weather approaches but subsides as inventory is filled and decreases even more as the summer months get closer. The calendar not only gives us climate related seasons, but also the annual passing of important dates that then creates 'seasons' of its own. The due date for filing U.S. income taxes is every April 15th. Monetary liquidity may decline as taxes are paid, but rise as the Federal Reserve recirculates funds. These annual cycles in supply and demand give rise to the seasonal price phenomena or what we would simply call seasonality. This annual pattern of changing conditions may cause a more or less well-defined annual pattern of price responses. Seasonality, then, may be defined as a market's natural rhythm-an established tendency for prices to move in the same direction around similar time most years. In a market strongly influenced by annual cycles, seasonal price movement tendencies may become more than just an effect of seasonal cause. It can become so ingrained as to become nearly a fundamental condition in its own right - almost as if the market had a memory of its own. Why? Once consumers, producers, traders, and the like fall into a particular pattern, they tend to rely on it-almost to the point of becoming dependent on it. This dependency can be tricky as such trading patterns do not repeat without fail. The seasonal methodology, as does any other, has its own inherent limitations. For instance , some summers are hotter and dryer than others thus leading to less of a supply than what was predicted for the fall. Even trends of exceptional seasonal consistency are best traded with common sense and caution. A basic familiarity with current seasonality fundamentals and a simple technical indicator will help enhance selectivity and timing of entries and exits. Seasonal Futures Spread Trading The Moore Research Center (MRCI) is one of the leaders in assessing these seasons and has evaluated up to 55 years of history against the market behaviour of current contracts. This research has been used, and still is, by major exchanges like the CME, CBOT and others including hedge funds and traders. They are members and regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA). MRCI presents a list of fifteen seasonal futures spread trading ideas each month, covering all commodity sectors: grains, energies, currencies, livestock, etc. Every spread they present has shown at least an 80 percent historic reliability over 15 years (when available) and Moore Research provides detailed statistical data for every year the individual spread has been tracked. Their spread trading cycles last anywhere from a week or so up to around 3 months. Most of them average about 4-6 weeks. Each spread has a pre-determined entry and exit date along with a pre-calculated point at which the spread would be exited if it became a loser. Every spread is updated each day on their web site from the day it goes on to the day it comes off and their results are recorded. MRCI uses the daily settlement prices of the market as the values to label their entry and exit prices. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but ignoring this chronological behaviour of seasonality and the tools readily available to help predict these patterns is a mistake for futures traders. A knowledgeable broker who is MRCI equipped and spread savvy is a keen idea if you want to get into trading seasonal commodities. The more tools you utilize within using the approach of seasonality trading can help you in whatever commodity or commodities you wish to trade. Toepke, Jerry. "Moore Research Center, Inc." Why Seasonals Work. McGraw-Hill, 14 May 2009. Web. 05 May 2016. Disclaimers: * Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. ** SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS. THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES, AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. The inverse correlation GOLD vs OIL 08:10 05-Sep-19 Gold can be used for speculation but is preferred as a safe haven. Crude, on the other hand, can be used as a store of value but is preferred as a speculative play. This combination makes these two assets work great together as mutual hedges. Gold helps offset the risk of higher uncertainty, while oil can take advantage of market moves. Broadly speaking, you could say that gold and petroleum are inversely correlated. There are a couple of major caveats to add to that notion. The first is that more nuance allows for more sophisticated trading. The second is that there is more to oil prices than just the market. born2invest.com Understanding Intermarket Spreads: Platinum and Gold www.cmegroup.com Basics of Futures Spread Trading March 5, 2011 by Craig Turner www.danielstrading.com .LOG Forex basket Trade the NEWS : For most new traders, the biggest challenge is getting a profitable strategy that works for the long term. Usually, trend-following systems are favored because they tend to have a very good risk-to-reward ratio. Trading the currency market is essentially a numbers game, basically traders look for strategies or systems that have a positive overall yield. The profit factor of any strategy is also very essential, because a profitable strategy should make more money or pips, than it loses. After some extensive research, I have discovered one of such systems. This strategy is built on one of the oldest trading adages around; “cut your losses early and let your profits run” and “the trend is your friend”. Basket trading involves opening a series of correlated or uncorrelated trades, and after an adequate amount of time, closing the trades when the overall sum of the trades is positive i.e. when the net value of all open trades is positive or close to our targeted profit-value. It is not 100% guarantee. The Trading setup The truth behind the Forex market is that currencies trend. This means that currencies have a tendency to keep gaining or diminishing over a long period of time. There are a lot of concepts about trading cycles and swings, but in reality if we were to zoom out of our charts we would notice a very obvious and unmistakable trend direction. Basket trading involves gauging the potential strength or weakness of a pair, and placing several trades that align with that analysis. Key Reports/Factors that Move FX Markets Any world events /news Financial crises and elections create financial uncertainty and, in turn, impact value of a country’s currency Central Bank monetary policy announcements Will affect size/growth rate of a nation’s money supply and, in turn, interest rates; can include key interest rate changes, buying/selling government bonds, reserve requirements changes FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) Meets 8 times a year to set U.S. monetary policy and key interest rate changes; impacts value of U.S. dollar, world’s reserve currency U.S. Dollar Index Measures the value of U.S. dollar relative to a basket of currencies for the U.S.’s most significant trading partners.
U
by DORMAN5
GLOBAL CRASH INBOUND?As charted, everytime we see a Ichimoku CLoud break in the VIX ( Volatility S&P 500 Index ) we see a strong rally out of it. The most recent example of this is on the 13th Feb 2020. Inversely proportional to the VIX , the S&P 500 Index has massive negative price action, represented on the 21st Feb 2020. Coincidence? I think not... Since the beginning of COVID19 governments around the world have been scrambling to control there domestic economies by all means necessary. It's of no secret that there is a huge amount of Global Hyperinflation and we are starting to really feel the effects of what this virus has done. Nothing is guaranteed and we have deflected out of Ichimoku Clouds before to stabilise as represented most recently on the 31st July 2020, (Remember though that the S&P 500 still dropped close to 6%) Currently looking at price action on the S&P 500 Index entering the cloud doesn't fill me with confidence, along with the VIX ( Volatility ) shaping up to break through the cloud and destabilise the S&P 500 . This isn't just isolated to the S&P 500 Index , check out all the other Major Indexes to see the relationship. America is about to enter "Flu season" (Winter) and it has the Presidential Election coming up. This could be shaping up for a BIG ONE.... Will history repeat? These Ideas are NOT 'Financial Advice'!. Scenarios are based off a mixture of TA and Fundamentals current at the time. All IMO GLTA. Happy Hunting!!! *Prices will differ depending on charts used
TVC:VIX
by Trader_Johnni
70
The S&P 500 Index, No More PoliticsWe looked at the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and also took into consideration its potential effect on politics and vice versa... (see related ideas below this post) Our support has been taken out and the day started red... Let's have a look at the SPX chart and see what it has to say. Chart Analysis | SPX Daily (D) @AlanMasters We now have full bearish indicators for the SPX. The MACD easily moved below zero and gaining bearish momentum. The RSI is now below 40 looking weak and with room for more low. Prices closed below EMA50 easily and the lower trendline is being tested as support. According to all the chart signals, the SPX is bearish and continue to drop. We also looked at the Dow Jones (DJI) And FTSE100 (UKX) Namaste.
SP:SPX
by AlanSantana
19