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Say HELLO to INFLATION How to measure inflation? though we normally apply CPI reports for measuring that, it looks like this data is no more relevant. I was a bit surprised by the nature of the sharp growth in different markets from March: cryptocurrencies, stocks, metals, commodities . while many countries are STILL in lockdown and many people just went bankrupt during these hard times, everything indicates that things are better than ever. reading different news outlets, everyone states the RECOVERY and strength of the modern economy. it's marvelous strength that helped to overcome the severe crisis. as everything keeps falling apart, I started to look for other reasons for this exponential growth. it turned out that all these bullish rallies have started almost at the same time. some BILL was accepted and signed in March, triggering a fall of greenback and market pumping. looks like we are not contemplating the times of USD inflation . it is severely painful for me because I am a cash guy and hold my saving in dollars. but it turned out to be a very bad idea... what is the solution? spend money. take it from your mattress and start spending. deposits are not the option. only assets will keep their value.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
42
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) Money Printing Scenario US indexes keep growing. probably they haven't heard about the massive unemployment rate and corona aftermath all over the world. nothing can stop the global economy. who dares massive gbp loss this year, who dares the spike in bad debts. if you noticed a salary decrease during the last few months, probably you just don't know how to count. it looks like things are better than ever so we keep being bullish biased. 27550 resistance will be reached soon. in case of a bullish violation of that the market will keep growing. the next stops will be: 28290 2925
ULong
by VasilyTrader
20
4 VS 1 / DJI, SPX, IXIC y RUT Versus TLT (BONDS 20 YRS) Cuando las acciones suben, los bonos deberían bajar. Es simple porque los bonos son como una inversión poco rentable pero segura en tiempos difíciles. Pero cuando comparamos 4 índices con un ETF para bonos a largo plazo, me viene a la mente que en el futuro, la mayoría de los inversores están apostando al mercado a colapsar, (no ahora). Podemos ver la línea de convergencia (por ahora) entre ETF "TLT" (BONOS 20 AÑOS) y 4 índices importantes de USA. Obviamente, si vemos la imagen macro de "US 10 Y", descartamos cualquier riesgo en el corto plazo. ---------------------------------- As we know about opposite, when stocks go higher, Bonds should Go Down. It is simple because Bonds are like a low profitable but safe investment in hard times. But when we compare 4 indexes against an ETF for Long period bonds, it comes to my mind that in a future mostly investors are betting market to crash, (not now). We can see the convergence line (for now) between ETF "TLT" (20 YEARS BONDS) and 4 important indexes of USA. Obviously, if we see the macro Picture of "US 10 Y" we are very solid at this time and we discard any risk.
TVC:IXIC
by danchallout
1
Indexes vs M1 & M2 Money SupplyM1 = coins and currency in circulation + checkable (demand) deposit + traveler’s checks. M2 = M1 + savings deposits + money market funds + certificates of deposit + other time deposits. We are looking at the major US Indexes Dow 30, SPX 500, Nasdaq 100, & Russell 2000 vs each of these types of money supplies As we print more we expect these money supplies to increase, so we can start to see the 'real growth' in terms of how much $ is 'out there' In the more liquid M1 Money supply it looks like we may have bottomed here on the indexes by testing the 'all time' trend line But in the less liquid M2 Money supply we /could/ expect a fall further if things really go south here. We never tested the 'all time' trend line. No /need/ to but if we did it would be within reason. I examine lots of these 'composite' charts as I call them, but let me know your thoughts as well! Manage your own risk Much Love GL HF xoxo snoop
DJ:DJI
by 420snoop
We are in an unprecedented fiscal experimentEconomic downturns are usually accompanied (and perhaps prolonged) by a tightening of private credit, as you can see on this chart of S&P 500 performance vs commercial and industrial loans from all commercial banks. Lending significantly lags stock market performance, but a downturn in lending generally confirms a recession, and an upturn in lending generally confirms a new bull market. This time, however, is different-- at least in terms of the initial response. The rapid downturn in stocks was met with a huge spike in new private lending, encouraged by massive Fed liquidity, and the recovery of stocks was as sharp as the initial selloff. Now, however, lending has turned back downward, and it's possible that over the next year we could see the same tightening of credit that usually accompanies a recession. The Fed can increase bank reserves, but it can't increase borrowers' collateral or their appetite for risk in a difficult economic environment. Does this downturn in private lending, like the previous ones, confirm that we're in a recession and that stocks will slide from here? Will the next upturn in private lending signal that we're back in a bull market? Only time will tell, but the results of this experiment will have huge ramifications for both policymakers and investors for decades to come. Hat tip to @TayFx for help constructing this chart. Also check out his cool charts of SPX vs. M2 money supply and Fed balance sheet:
F
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
17
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Update & Important Decision Ahead!!! DXY is retesting summer's structure low. the price is currently consolidating within a narrow horizontal decision range. because the current trend is bearish, I am bearish biased on greenback. in case of a violation of the range to the downside, bearish rally will most likely continue. next goals will be: 95.4 - daily resistance 94.8 - year's low in case of a bullish violation of the range, USD may start recovering. 96.9 will be the first goal. for now it is hard to predict with high accuracy the next usd move, so let the market decide first and then just act accordingly.
TVC:DXYShort
by VasilyTrader
15