DAX INDEX: Bearish Forecast
dax index is approaching April's high.
ugly triple top pattern was formed on 1H chart confirming the significance of the underlined resistance.
today the price dropped nicely, closing below 10985 minor support.
now we see a retest.
based on that I expect a bearish continuation.
goals:
10785
10690
good luck!
Indexes
SPX500 INDEX (SPY) Bearish Forecast Based on Structure
hey guys,
since the 29th of April, we see a consolidation on spy in a wide horizontal daily range.
now the price is approaching its resistance again so we can expect a retracement.
target levels
2900 - minor support (382 retracement of the last bull leg with numbers adjusted)
2850 - minor support (618 retracement of the last bull leg with numbers adjusted)
good luck!
Nikkei 225 Index (JPN225) Short Trade Explained
Short trade went active on Nikkei!
Reason:
the price reached a resistance line of a rising wedge pattern on daily
+ double top formation on 1H with a confirmed breakout of minor support.
I entered short based on retest (382 retracement of a small bull leg)
stop - 20585
t1 - 20050
t2 - 19770
risk: 1%
INTEL Corp (INTC) Complete Indecision!
hey guys,
intel is stuck in a classic horizontal indecision range.
the price is coiling within a 6 dollars range for more than 1 months and to clarify its future direction we need a breakout.
both scenarios are equally possible and we should be prepared for a bullish and for a bearish violation.
in case of a bearish daily breakout,
the price will drop lower to 53.0/49.3 levels
in case of a bullish daily breakout,
the price will grow to 64.0/67.3 levels
good luck!
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (SX5E) Peculiar BREAKOUT!
Euro stocks index broke below a horizontal neckline of a h&s pattern.
we have a nice conjunction of a daily/4h candle close below confirming the violation.
now the price retesting the broken level.
I expect seeing a bearish continuation to
2656 (next minor support)
2579
Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) Bearish Continuation!
hey guys,
Dow broke below a major rising channel.
after a retest we see a negative bearish reaction and further decline.
based on that I believe that the index will keep falling.
key levels:
22500
2100
(FR40) Index to hit 4600 EUR Pretty SoonFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis and not meant to be taken seriously. That being said, let me get into my opinion. FR40 which is a French stock index for the Euronext Paris, have been hit pretty significantly as a result of Covid19 after being on a bullish recovery for almost a year prior. Now, as the markets are weighting in and people are starting to "panic sell less", I believe it is about to pass the 4600 euro threshold and likely to go on a stable price recovery trend. The 4600 EUR threshold crossing is likely within a week or so at most, but the recovery process is more of a long afterwards.
SONY CORP (6758) Two Scenarios!
hey guys,
sony is standing on a key structure resistance level!
depending on what is your bias on this stock you may either see an ascending triangle on 4H
or
a double top formation.
no matter what it is, we can trade the stock to both sides.
if the price breaks above resistance of the ascending formation,
for us, it will be a long signal and we buy expecting a continuation to higher scructure levels!
in contrast, 6600 is our minor support.
being broken to the downside, for us, it will be a trigger to short!
both scenarios are equally possible so be prepared!
good luck!
Markets are Remaining Bullish Post-Panic SellingFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few of my insights. I was earlier today going to do a livestream (which I'm trying to reschedule to talk about Covid that had to be canceled due to some technical difficulties), this is what I was mostly going to say: Many of the indexes, markets and different commodities and asset classes started to be quite bearish when news started breaking out of Covid19. I said that before, and I will say that again. Bitcoin even went down. The demand in the supply and demand curve for things such as gas, oil, and precious metals started going down. Indexes were going down, and even currencies started being effected. This told me that people were and have been panic selling. Most of the downward spirals weren't justified by business or asset class performance, but rather was a result of that panic selling. Now, it looks like there is a positive retracement and the entire market seems to be bullish again. This also brings back an important point for traders, which is that the best strategies and advisors do well in both a bearish and bullish market. If they are doing well only in a bullish market, this could be indicative of lack of experience, skill or knowledge.
CITIGROUP (C) IN A CLASSIC FLAG FORMATION
after a strong bearish wave, we see a steady recovery on CITI.
the price is steadily going up within a rising parallel channel called a bearish flag pattern.
its called bearish because even if the sentiment is locally bullish, on a long run stock is falling and we keep our bearish bias.
we don't know how long the price will be within, the only trigger for us is the breakout.
daily candle close below is the perfect signal to look for a short trade, expecting a continuation to current structure low
with a potential rally to the downside!
keep watching citi and try to catch a perfect swing short!
good luck!
UKOIL: Downtrend Bid + Retracement LongFirst off, please don't take anything I say seriously, as always this is on opinion basis. That being said, let me get into a few key points I want to make. Oil is about to go back down on the demand curve and have increased resistance, especially in indexes and/or options trading. This is mostly due to price corrections and a result of the sentiment going on from people reacting to the Covid19 pandemic. The demand curve going down = oil going down = price corrections as a result of impacted news. It is that simple, and this is why I predict a small imminent bearish period for UKOIL, but a huge upswing investment opportunity.
SPX trend line breach may signal breakdown pointIf you've been following my previous thread, you know that I've been watching the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA as possible reversal levels for this rally in the S&P 500. We eventually pushed past the 50-day (green curve), but yesterday we got rejected from a test of the 200-day (dark blue curve), and now we've violated the upward trend line (light blue line) that SPX has formed on its hourly chart over the last month. (In addition to technical resistance from the 200-day EMA, we also hit a fib retracement level and a couple important psychological resistance levels on the fundamental side-- 20-22.5 forward P/E, market cap 140% of GDP-- so there are lots of reasons to reverse from here).
In my past experience with trend line breakdowns, the price often moves back above the trend line at least one more time, and then it either holds there or reconfirms the breakdown. That's already happened, as you can see on the zoomed-in chart:
It's possible that we will move above the trend line again and retest the 200-day EMA before breaking decisively below the trend line, but personally I have already purchased puts.
In terms of fundamentals, the overall news environment is starting to shift in a more negative direction, I think.
Over the past month, the market has been driven by government stimulus, decent tech earnings, and optimism around reopening. It has mostly shrugged off bad news such 30 million job losses, a spate of corporate bankruptcies, and a flood of worse-than-expected 1Q economic data.
Now, however, we're turning our attention to Q2. Q1 GDP fell only 4.8%, whereas Q2 GDP is forecast to fall 27.7%. The earnings numbers for Q2 are going to hurt a lot more than those for Q1, especially due to companies' high borrowing costs. Analysts are also predicting another rash of bankruptcies and debt offerings in May. Cities and states may announce new taxes to offset budget shortfalls.
Meanwhile, the Fed is out of interest rate ammunition and slowing its balance sheet expansion. There's a bailout for oil likely coming in the next few days, and possibly an infrastructure bill in the longer-term pipeline, but federal stimulus is slowing down as the economy reopens.
And if China's experience is anything to go by, reopening will be slow, with lots of logistical bottlenecks and false starts. Demand will stay weak because consumers are out of cash. Some states will reopen too early and have to go back into quarantine within a few weeks. I think we will retest the March low in coming months as investors realize the scale of the economic damage and that it's not a temporary thing.
Big tech, I think will continue to outperform due to persistent fear of Covid-19. Airlines and cruise lines will continue to struggle, with some likely filing for bankruptcy in the coming year. Banks will remain hard-hit and highly risky due to continued default risk.
NZX 50 INDEX (NZ50G) Trading Plan
The Main New Zealand stock index reached a key structure level.
the price has already got rejected on a daily signifying the significance of the underlined zone for the market participants.
on 4H we see a narrow trading range with a potential lower high formation.
on focus in 10350 structure support.
in case of a bearish candle close below that, the index will drop
target levels will be: 9950 / 9450
good luck!
MCDONALDS (MCD) On Key Level! Two Scenarios!
Mcdonalds is approaching a key daily resistance level.
on 4h is coiling in a rising wedge pattern and clearly, the market participants are waiting for some trigger.
earnings I suppose!
for now, the price action is weak and we should be prepared for both scenarios.
in case of a bullish violation of the key level, we will see a bullish continuation to 206/217 levels
in case of a bearish breakout of the wedge, we may expect a drop to 170/156!
be prepared for both scenarios and follow the market!
good luck!
Microsoft (MSFT) Bearish Forecast
hey guys,
perfect structure based short setup on MSFT!
we have a key daily level and a bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern with a lower high based on that!
+ after a breakout we see a retest with a negative bearish reaction!
based on that I expect the stock to fall to 161.0 / 152.0 levels (based on structure)
good luck!
UK 100 Index (UKX) Bullish Wave Is Coming?!
hey guys,
a perfect example of a reversal pattern on UK 100 index.
we see an ascending triangle with a sequence of higher lows and a strong horizontal resistance that still holds!
wait for a bullish breakout of 5850 resistance and buy on pullback expecting a bullish continuation.
target levels:
6150
6500
based on structure!
good luck!
if the market breaks below the rising trendline, setup will be invalid
SP500 buy opportunity, when the Fed helping we should be buying.Due to the current market situation, it is possible to see 2900 and 3k target and SP500. The market keeps pushing forward and we should keep buying. Support lines have been shown in my chart, it should be bought in every bounce on them. Until the trend completely changes I see it is a buy.
S&P 500 | Cup & Handle Please support this idea with LIKE if you find it useful.
There is a Cup & Handle pattern. And currently price fixed above the 50 MA. In case there is a confirmed breakout of the Horizontal Resistance we can continue the growth.
Nevertheless be carefull with this asset
Thank you for reading this idea! Hope it's been useful to you and some of us will turn it into profitable!
Remember this analysis is not 100% accurate. No single analysis is. To make a decision follow your own thoughts.
The information given is not a Financial Advice.
Oil Futures: $35 Target (Huge Coronavirus Investment Potential) Basic economics is the supply and demand curve. The United States is at war with other countries for catching up on oil supply, so the constant need for production even during pandemic times leads to a surplus. The demand curve for oil though is at one of its lowest, given we need to literally all stay home. This leads me to believe that the huge price crash was time related, and extremely indicative of a panic sale. Take what I am saying as an opinion and not face value (as always), but my advice is that there is huge potential for a positive correlation wave or bullish price increases after the demand curve stabilizes. This could be a week or two, or maybe even few month, but this is an extremely short futures trading strategy given you could conservatively potentially see a doubling in the futures price with medium risk. Again, just a hypothetical, but I would keep a close watch on oil futures and indexes. Please don't take what I say seriously or sound i.e. hypothetical risk disclosure, but this gives you something to think about.
AIRBUS (AIR) Two Scenarios Explained
hey guys,
airbus is consolidating on a key structure support level.
the price is stuck on 50 level for more that one month!
on 4H we see a classic contraction with a formation of a descending triangle.
the side of the breakout of the triangle will show us the future direction of the stock.
because the trend is bearish, we are bearish biased here and we expect further bearish continuation.
however, in case of a bearish breakout out profits will be relatively limited.
we will aim at 40 and this will be the next key structure.
in case of a bullish breakout of a falling trendline, we can expect a bullish continuation,
and aim at 76 level.
be prepared for both scenarios and adjust your trading plan accordingly!
good luck!