SPX500 - O Crap! Are we in for the mother of all corrections?From a Elliott Wave Theory perspective it looks like the monthly S&P500 has completed 5 waves up - so the theory dictates we need to correct the 5 waves up with three waves down. The prior 4th wave low is usually the end of the retracement. However, retracements can go all the way back to the prior 2nd low !!!
Indexes
SPX500 INDEX (SPY) KEY LEVELS
These last few days spy is relatively slow.
This is the calm before the storm.
Currently, the market is accumulating volumes and we are preparing for the next wave.
I don't know whether we will go lower, or finally, we will see a pullback.
No matter what is gonna happen, here are key levels to consider:
in case of a bearish breakout below current support, 2140 is the next strong support.
then goes 1850.
in case of a pullback, 2620 is the first resistance to consider.
adjust you trading plan accordingly.
good luck!
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) Correctional Movement
DXY reached a current structure high yesterday.
technically index is back to bullish trend and our long term bias is strictly bullish
but chances are high that we will see a pullback from an underlined resistance and only then continue to new structure highs.
adjust your trading plan accordingly and good luck!
DAX INDEX: 3 REASONS TO PAY ATTENTION
DAX index is like a waterfall:
no pullback, no correction during the entire short rally.
though fundamentals are still depressing, here are the reasons why we should be focused on dax and expect a pullback soon:
first of all, the market is clearly oversold and sellers will soon start profit-taking,
secondly, the market is close to a key historical level and I truly believe that a lot of pending orders are placed there,
thirdly, I think there are a lot of folks out there sitting on piles of cash waiting to start buying, the underlined level gives a perfect opportunity to them.
be prepared and let's watch the lower timeframes for confirmation!
good luck!
Bank Of America (BAC) Will Drop Hard (90%+ Crash?!)The chart for Bank Of America (BAC) is looking bad long term, there are many signals pointing to a very strong drop.
The last time this company had a crash, it shredded over 95% of its value... The same might happen again.
Let's take a look at some of the signals:
Let's start by looking at Divergence , you can spot this marked with a light blue line on both the MACD and RSI. These divergences work strongly on conventional assets, they always confirm. We have bearish divergence on both indicators.
I marked a rising wedge in purple which is also bearish. You can expect the asset value to move a bit longer within the wedge before breaking down; if it does. Probabilities are really high...
EMAs are going to be challenged now, this is our main support (22.33).
The RSI is super bearish.
Volume has dropped massive while price moving up.
If you were to use this information to trade, a break and close above 28.45 would be a great stop loss. As for the way down, 13.62 can be your main target and more after/if this level breaks.
...
This one is about to crash really hard... Just like it is happening with Apple, Google, SPX, DJI and the rest.
Thanks a lot for reading.
Namaste.
S&P 500 Index (SPY) Still Not Too Low!
I noticed that some traders and investors have already started buying spy on discount assuming that the market has finally found its bottom.
BUT
Look at a daily chart:
key 2330 level still is not reached!
I still believe that the market can go lower and at least the underlined level will be tested, and who knows, pullback and next wave to the downside.
too early to change bias, folks. pay attention to inside bar formation on daily and look for a side of a breakout.
then act accordingly.
+ if you are still short biased, sell from the candle open of the last mother's bar. perfect trend continuation entry!
good luck!
How To Hedge Short Rallies??
What to do when all stock market falls apart???
The easiest option I guess is to short the market of course, but if you are a mid.term or long term portfolio investor, never forget about bonds.
The main concern that I constantly hear is a low yield that barely covers inflation. Of course during the massive market expansion bonds do not appear solid. But everything can change quickly as it happens this year.
On the chart, I have gathered spy and dow indexes and 10 YR US treasuries.
A negative correlation is clearly perceptible. Next time designing your portfolio, remember where all the money goes in the dark times. Never neglect bonds because of its low yield and remember about its main hedging function!
Don't forget to support the idea with like and comment!
Thank you!
S&P500 Index (SPY) Time For The Next Decision
SPY is stuck in a decision range between two key structure levels.
if you still don't have an active position, the best strategy is to wait for a breakout.
the side of the breakout will show you the future market direction with a high degree of accuracy.
of course, we still stick to a bearish bias and bearish scenario is highly probable,
but in our age of uncertainty, everything can happen!
our first goal for bearish breakout will be 2600 level.
for bullish breakout - 2970
good luck and be patient!
#SP500,The declines to where?The SP500 dropped last week and stopped just above the average moving line 100 on the weekly graph, if we look at history in the last two serious price correction, The SP500 fell and did not stop at the 100 moving average line, but continued to the 200 moving average line
According to Stochastic and RSI, the declines have not yet come to an end.
Right now the SP500 is still very technically bullish
Our target will be above the 200 moving average line: $ 2686
S&P 500 Index (SPX500) May Go Much Lower! Key Levels To Note
buyers show their unwillingness to buy on dips.
the market went rejected after a minor retracement from 2888 support.
looks like selling volumes are accumulating and bears preparing for a breakout.
the best strategy for us to follow is to sell the breakouts of these key levels expecting a drop to the next one.
Key levels:
2744
2560
2343
note how perfectly structure matches with key levels.
good luck!
please, support the idea with like! thank you!
It's just a correction until we break this trend lineTo be a truly successful investor, you have to have very long time horizons. Most of us track trends for days or weeks, but big investment banks and algorithm-driven "smart money" track trends for years or decades. This requires patience that most people can't muster. With that in mind, let's look at some long-term trends in the S&P 500 to see where we might want to enter.
The S&P 500 has maintained the green trend line for over 10 years, since the end of the last recession in 2009. As you can see, there's plenty of room for the S&P 500 to fall before it hits this trend line, say around 2550 (down 12% from the current level). I expect we'll get there within the next couple months.
Then comes the real test: will the market continue to hold its long-term uptrend? Or will we break the trend line support, signaling that the correction has turned into a full-fledged bear market? In the last couple recessions, the S&P 500 finally bottomed at about half the price at the preceding market top. For a hypothetical 2020 recession, that implies a bottom at about 1700, shown as a red horizontal line here on the chart.
Thus, the long-term play is pretty simple: buy the trend line, and sell if it breaks. Wait to re-enter at about half the market top. If you have the patience, you may be able to get in on the ground floor of the next bull market for another 10-year cycle. Embrace the wait, and good luck!
DAX Index On Key Support!!! What to do?
what a huge gap!
we haven't seen such for a long period of time on DAX and it is very telling!
the market perfectly dropped on strong horizontal support and it is the last resort for the buyers.
being broken to the downside, it will trigger selling reaction of market participants giving us a great chance to short the market!
Key levels in case of breakout:
12500
11900
be patient and don't jump in before the breakout!
please, support the idea with like! thank you!
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Bearish Continuation Coming
hey guys,
be prepared to short Hang Seng on bearish breakout of a flag formation.
the trend is bearish,
we saw a fake breakout to the upside recently,
fundamental sentiment is vague!
don't miss this opportunity.
initial target is 25100
then apply trailing stop and try to catch a big winner!
good luck!
please, support the idea with like and comment!
thank you!
SPY likely to move toward bottom of channelI think we're likely to see a correction in the S&P 500 to at least the bottom of the channel, if not lower. On Tuesday the S&P 500 hit 19 forward P/E, making the index the most expensive it's been since 2002 (18 years ago). In effect, the S&P is priced as if there's zero risk in the market right now. Of course, we all know that's not true; between coronavirus and record public and private debt, there's lots of risk out there right now. We've been borrowing money to juice the economy for years, and coronavirus may bring a reckoning.
A huge, long list of companies has issued negative earnings guidance or warnings of business disruption due to the virus, and more companies are likely to do the same next week. Analyst firms will adjust their forecasts and price targets based on companies' guidance. Analyst firms are also sounding warnings that coronavirus's macroeconomic impact is underestimated or that it may cause disrupted companies to default on trillions of dollars of debt. Frankly, we're long overdue for a price correction, and it's ridiculous for the S&P to be mid-channel with so many headwinds. I don't really like to play short, because the market usually goes up long-term, but for those who do play short, now would probably be the time.
Dollar Index (DXY): Midterm Projection
hey traders,
dollar index is approaching a current market high level!
I believe that because of the current overwhelming dollar strength and clear uptrend on the index,
the breakout to the upside and new higher high are inevitable.
even if current resistance is respected, bulls will accumulate volumes on a pullback for continuation to new highs.
key support for the index is 98.0 level.
good luck!
Dollar Index (DXY): Close To Market High
dollar is phenomenally strong these last few weeks,
analyzing the index on a daily,
we see that it is coming closer and closer to a current market high.
projecting abcd harmonic movement and looking left at structure
we may expect with you a retracement from the underlined area.
pay close attention on a daily and remember that closer the market is to the current high,
higher the chances are to see a bearish reaction
Beware a possible market topLast month, I posted an article here on TradingView in which I mentioned three indicators that 2020 might be a banner year for stocks. We had had a strong Santa Claus rally and a strong "first five days" of the year, I pointed out, and unless there was a major end-of-month correction, we were on course to have a strong January. All three of those indicators are highly predictive of full-year performance. Well, guess what? We got a strong end-of-month correction, and we ended January down 0.04% overall. That means we only got 2 out of the 3 bullish indicators, with overall January performance implying a bear year ahead.
Lately we've been rallying from that late January correction, but I'm not sure it can last. If China hadn't announced the removal of half its tariffs, the market would already have resumed a down trend due to growing coronavirus risk. The reality is that coronavirus impact is likely to be larger than the impact of a 50% tariff cut. Analysts are expecting 15% China production cuts in the auto industry, for instance, and oil prices already reflect a huge impact on travel and shipping. So far it's just international travel, shipping, and demand that are affected, but you can probably expect a larger impact on domestic markets within a month or two. My model suggests that the current global count of about 31,500 coronavirus cases is likely to grow to 190,000 by the end of February. (y = 126.23x2 - 1E+07x + 2E+11; R² = 0.999. See my Twitter page @WSPZoo for the graph.)
What might be the impact of coronavirus? Well, a quick review of a 2014 study on Spanish flu in Sweden-- where infection and mortality rates were similar to coronavirus-- suggests that capital returns fell by about 1%, and the poorhouse rate was about 11% higher in the hardest-hit areas than in the least-affected areas (due mostly to kids losing their parents). With the banking sector in the US currently very exposed to any increase in the poverty rate due to higher-than-2007-levels of subprime lending, I'd suggest coronavirus substantially increases the risk of another cascade of defaults like the one that triggered the 2008 Great Recession. The US also has a trillion-dollar deficit and low interest rates, leaving perhaps little room for fiscal stimulus if GDP growth should slow on the order of 1%. In short, this is very worrying.
The tariff news will buoy us a little, but I'm not sure how long it will last. If we end the day down today, then we will have made a bearish divergence on the RSI. And if we end the day down tomorrow, that'll probably give us a bear divergence peak on the MACD as well. I have already changed my allocation to about 75% cash, and it may be a while before I re-enter on anything but a few small option positions.
SSE COMPOSITE: Drop After Gap Close
hey traders,
on Shanghai Stock Exchange the market has recently dropped with a gap.
now it recovers and most-likely the gap will be closed.
what is important here is the fact that the last candle close before the gap gives a strong resistance for the market.
so even in case of a 100% recovery, the market can drop just after the gap will be filled.
good luck!