S&P 500 STRATEGIC OVERVIEWStrategically the support resistance levels in S&P 500, the channel entered the index,
and here we can observe the distributional sell signal from last week for this week (current bar).
Do not forget to read the notes in the presentation.
In summary, this week has been affected by distributional sales and I think it will continue until the closing.
We have been under the influence of the positive trend since October 21st.
There is no mention of a bear market.
Indexes
Could DAX 30 make recovery?The DAX 30 index surged to the highest since January 2018 on Friday following the US-China trade deal. But the index has come-off sharply from there. DAX is likely to trade sideways after the German Manufacturing PMI missed the estimates. Services PMI rose to 52.0, up from 51.7, matched expectations.
The nearest support bellow is H4 50 SMA and the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at the same chart. A breakout down that level could extend the further bearish pressure towards 12,923.20, the 78,6% Fibo retracement on the daily rally from 11,266.48 to 13,374.27. In that area is located also the lower boundary of H4 BBs. Underneath the support level at 12,650 should limit the sell-offs.
On upside, if the bulls could make recovery above the Friday's high at 13,423.41, further gains should continue to 13,505/525 (Oct. and Nov. 2017 highs). Obviously resistance at the all time high of 13,596.89 is then key to direction.
We prefer the bearish/consolidation scenario in near-term because of the negative Friday candle and therefore Stochastic is in its overbought area.
Trump and US-China Deal Attract the AttentionIt was risk-on mood after yesterday Trump teased traders with hope of a US-China trade deal by tweeting “Getting VERY close to a BIG DEAL with China. They want it, and so do we!”
If the both sides can’t reach an agreement within the next few days, additional tariffs will be imposed on imported Chinese goods on Sunday, December 15th. If a deal is reached before Sunday, the tariffs will likely not be imposed, and current tariffs may be rolled back. The big question that remains is, “How much of the existing tariffs will be rolled back?” We saw following reports by the Wall Street Journal that U.S. negotiators offered to cut tariffs by 50%. But until Trump makes an official announcement, which must occur before December 15, the tariffs could still be imposed.
The Dow Jones index has touched new record highs yesterday at $28,225. At this point in time it’s likely that we will continue to see pullbacks as buying opportunities. If the price break above the yesterday's high we could expect the bulls to extend the upside momentum towards 28,250 (the upper line of Bollinger Bands).
But we wouldn’t be surprised at all that if by the end of the day Friday we don’t get any hint of a delay of the tariffs by Donald Trump and than the stock market pulls back significantly. The first support of course is the psychological 28,000 level. The 50-day SMA follow it, which has risen to 27,374. A clear break here could send DJIA 30 to retest the Dec. low at 27,325. If the tariffs do in fact go into effect, it’s likely that this market will gap down on Monday, so at this point it’s probably best to stay aside.
All things being equal, but we think that the next 24 hours or so could be a bit dicey. In the next trading day you can throw out technicals of the window and it's possible to see "Buy the rumor, sell the fact" trading. Don’t forget the “Santa Claus rally” either.
DXY (Dollar Index): Bad Days For Greenback
Dollar index has broken below a key horizontal support 97.0
It is a very important clue to consider analyzing the market.
I believe that next week we may expect further bearish continuation.
the next key level for the greenback will be 96.
DAX30 Still Looks Neutral in Short-termThe DAX30 index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 13,190. The index is holding the rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 4 low (13,879) to November 19 high (13,338.25) rally at 12,970. The 55-day moving average has risen to 12,827. Yet the positive slope in the 55-day SMA that increases distance above the 200-day EMA suggests that the bullish trend is intact and an eventual reversal could come later rather than sooner.
On upside, if the price break above upper border of Bollinger Bands at 13,350, our first target is Nov. high 13,374.27. A clear break of which could see the bulls to retest the all-time high level of 13,597 registered in late January 2018.
A closing price below Tuesday’s low of 12,927 and the 55-day SMA could encourage more selling pressure. However, only a significant fall below 12,660 would put the current uptrend under speculation, shifting the medium-term picture from positive to neutral first. There is located also 50% Fibo level on the above-mentioned rally.
S&P 500 RecoverWall Street reversed its three-day sell-off overnight on renewed US-China trade hopes as investors piled back into the global recovery trade.
We think that the market probably goes higher, reaching towards the $ 3,200 level based upon the bullish triangle on the daily chart. Overall, this is a time year the typically works out well for stock markets anyway, as the money managers out there look to pad results for clients.
We're in buying position with the nearest Take Profit at 3,137, followed by 3,200. We putted our Stop Loss bellow 3,030. The price right now is trading above 50-day and 100-day SMAs and RSI indicator pointing higher above its 50 level, which mean that the bullish momentum should continue.
We believe that the 3,030 level underneath continues to be a hard “floor” in the market extending down to the 3000 level.
Remember, that at the end of the day it’s the Fed that supports the market, not the US/China trade situation. As long as the Federal Reserve is willing to step in and help the market along, it will continue to do what is done over the last 10 years - rally.
DXY (Dollar Index): Important Update
hey traders,
dollar index is close to a major trendline .
this trendline matches perfectly with horizontal support.
I believe that we can expect a bullish reaction from the underlined area.
Target levels are:
97.8
98.4
DXY (Dollar Index): Important Update
hey traders,
dollar index is close to a major trendline.
this trendline matches perfectly with horizontal support.
I believe that we can expect a bullish reaction from the underlined area.
Target levels are:
97.8
98.4
Potential Pullback on S&P 500?The American S&P 500 returned to the region above 3100. Recently the index testing the upper limit of the daily Bollinger Bands, which is also near to the bullish channel resistance line. That's why we may looking to short this market rather we would like to see a buying opportunity underneath.
The 50-day SMA is currently trading around the 3030 level, which is the top of the support “zone” that extends down to the 3000 handle. We like the idea of buying a bounce that we can take advantage of cheaper pricing. On upside the first target is at 3137, followed by 3200.
DJIA Struggle to Stay Above 28,000 It didn’t take long for the major indices to get back to all-time highs, as they began this shortened holiday week with a solid rally on hopes for a trade deal. The prospect of renewed economic growth and favorable monetary policy have also played some roles for the rally.
Overnight, DOW rose 0.68%, but lagged comparing it with S&P 500 and NASDAQ. Obviously, the market will continue reacting to whatever the current trade headline is - bad or good - with the relevant price action.
The H4 RSI indicator is going to test the 70% area now. This could imply an aggressive profit-taking activity for the coming sessions. The inability to keep above 28,000 will be the first sign of selling pressure. Taking out 27,675 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. The next support in that case will be the 50-day SMA on 4-hour chart which has risen to 27,489.
On upside, the index seems ready to re-test the record high at 28,090. A clear break above it could extend the bullish pressure towards the upper line of daily Bollinger Bands at 28,237.
Take in mind, that the trading activity will decline in the coming days because Thanksgiving Day, and of course the market is closed on Thursday and closes early on Friday.
US Indexes: An ominous patternNo sentiment offered this time. Simply sharing interesting information surrounding market’s channel since 2008, recent wedge, and volume indicator’s similarity to March 2000.
USD DROPPING...In this video update, we take a look at the USD and how the recent weakness is affecting
other markets. We also talk of using the strategy more recently on the Dow Jones and how it
would have played out in your trading.
BTC/Indexes: Bitcoin-Boom Index-BustPublished via phone. Trade based on your risk tolerance. I’ve recently published similar BTC-Index ideas but this one takes the cake. Regardless of whether a true correlation between BTC and indexes exists, the confluence of charted price, fib levels, and indicators should grab your attention.
Price represents Bitcoin’s price deviation relative to Index market’s price deviation.
Price has bounced off the potential 0 level of fib channel.
Several indicators corroborate at least a moderate pullback if not a full on reversal.
Here, a price reversal means an increasing difference in price between Bitcoin and Index market. This can happen a few ways: Bitcoin’s price increases while Index market’s price decreases, Bitcoin’s price increases more relative to an increase in Index market’s price, Bitcoin’s price decreases less relative to a decrease in Index market’s price.
Should be a good week for the Russell 2000IWM, a fund that tracks the small cap Russell 2000 index, has been trading in a range for the last few months. When the large caps broke out above their all-time highs, the Russell held back and stayed range-bound. Today, however, the fund broke out above the top of that range at 161.11. Assuming that it confirms the breakout by closing the day above that price, we should see IWM continue to move higher and perhaps test its August high at 173.39.
Large caps in my opinion have gotten ahead of themselves and look very expensive right now, so the opportunity in the market would seem to be in small caps. Check out this chart showing their current relatively inexpensive valuation compared to the S&P 500:
Small caps tend to outperform in a low interest rate environment, so in the next 6 months I expect IWM to climb back up to .58-.60 per share vs. the S&P from its current level of .52.
NASDAQ Technical analysisFor weeks, stock investors have been riding the waves of positive chatter on the trade deal, better-than-expected earnings, and a third rate cut by the Fed, to record highs. But please remember that it’s a two-sided game. The same events that drove indexes higher may be signaling they are ready to take back some of those gains.
Looking ahead notable earnings reports today include Lowe’s and Target.
Speaking technically, a sustained move above 8,340 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rebound rally later in the session with the first target 8,360.00. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
A convincing move under yesterday's low 8,308.30 and the trend line of support will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is 50-day SMA on 4-hour chart at 8,119.4. A clear break under it will change the main trend to down. This could trigger a further break to the next bottom around psychological 8,000 support. Take in mind, that there also is located Ichimoku cloud.
Our advice is to start looking for value areas and to try to avoid investing on the fear that you are going to miss a major rally. Signs of slower consumer spending, a pause in rate cuts and unstable trade negotiations are not reasons to chase stocks higher.
GOLD: Close to the first resistance
hey guys,
gold is going up following the recently posted trading plan.
market is coming closer and closer to the first strong level of resistance
and we can expect some retracement from the underlined zone.
our potential reversal zone is 1484 - 1488 area.
Look for a signal inside this area to short the market.
Target level will be 1472
Could DAX30 Broke Above the Current Range?The momentum of the index has increased since the middle of August. But yesterday was a particularly bearish day for the German auto sector, as the markets responded to negative chatter from Beijing on trade.
The DAX30 index remains stuck in a narrow 13,100 - 13,300 range that has been in place for almost two weeks. The sideways consolidation can continue for some more time and the DAX is likely to break above 13,300 and resume its upside trend towards 13,400 - 13,500 eventually.
But until that happen the preferred trading strategy is Sells on the upper border of the range or Buys at the bottom limit. Today the price already tested the upper border of the Bollinger Bands and retreated. Now we expecting the price to test most probably the H4 50-day moving average at 13,115. If the DAX broke bellow it and under the downward line of Bollinger Bands, the bears could go further downside to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from October 4 to November 12 at 12,970.
The German Bundesbank’s monthly report warned that Q4 growth could stagnate, but with only a slight risk of a prolonged recession. There are no major data releases scheduled for today. A lack of stats will leave the major German index in the hands of risk sentiment throughout the day. Geopolitics continues to be the key driver, with updates from the U.S and China on trade talks in focus.
S&P500: Close To Resistance
S&P500 is close to a strong zone of resistance 3130 - 3160.
I will be looking for a reversal formation inside this zone to short the market
expecting the retracement to the support of a rising channel.
*don't trade aggressively and act only after the confirmation.
DJIA Stay In A Risk-On MoodUS equities rallied last week to new record levels with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaching 28,000 for the first time. Soft economic data, Trump’s impeachment hearing, Hong Kong protests, and Middle East unrest were all considered secondary factors in investment decisions.
Today European stocks kick off a new week a little flat, with more talks between the US and China failing to excite investors in the way they have been recently.
So, what now? With the economic calendar being empty to during the start of the week, any trade updates will dictate the mood in markets. As things around the trade talks stand optimistic, the Dow is set to hold above the 28K level at the open. The market is trading on the strong side of an uptrending Gann angle from the 25,743 main bottom on October 3. Look for the uptrend to continue as long as the Dow futures contract holds above this angle.
The 55-day moving average has risen to 26,972 and could provide support if the price begin to fall. A move through 27,400 will shift momentum to the downside. This will not mean the main trend has changed, but it will indicate the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. While the nearest main bottom 25,743 hold, the uptrend is safe for now.
APPLE: Where is resistance???
buyers keep pushing the market higher.
currently, we are trading on the noman's land.
in my view, the first decent zone of resistance is the 275 - 300 area.
it is based on the projected harmonic movement based on the previous bullish impulse
and 1.272 fib extension.
the retracement can be expected to 240/220 levels.
US Dollar Index DXY DailyDaily chart showing upward movement and there is probability dollar will continue going up to previous highs. Seems like they will figure out how to put good deal on the tariffs and DXY will continue to rise.
NASDAQ: Triple Top???
morning traders!
NASDAQ is on its way to retest the market high the third time this year.
103.0 - 106.0 is a decent area of resistance and bets are high that we will see a retracement from it.
Target levels will be 100 and 96
*also note that the previous daily candle was quite strong
for this reason, it is preferable to wait for a confirmation before taking action.
no matter what is your approach is, stop should be strictly set above the underlined resistance area.
