DOW JONES: Crossed above the monthly Channel Down. Buy signal.Dow Jones turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.829, MACD = -79.310, ADX = 34.732) as it crossed over the Channel Down that is the bearish wave of the long term bullish trend. The 1W MA50 held and we have to go back to October 30th 2023 to find the last time that the index was under it. If the 1W RSI crosses above the MA trendline, we will confirm that most likely we are going to have a November 6th 2023 type of bullish breakout. The major rallies of the past years have been at least +20%. Buy and TP = 50,500.
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Indextrading
DAX: Healthy Channel Up aiming at 21,350DAX is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.832, MACD = 222.700, ADX = 20.758) as it just crossed the previous Resistance of the 5 month Channel Up. This is technically the new bullish wave of the pattern which got further confirmed after Monday's bounce on the 4H MA200. Both 1D MACD wise and relative price structure, it looks much like the previous two bullish waves. The recent HH was on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, thus we're aiming for the top of the pattern (TP = 21,350) yet again.
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S&P500: Every January same rally starting. Target = 6,950.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.738, MACD = -35.090, ADX = 24.753) but just turned marginally bullish on 1W (RSI = 55.182) today. This technically signifies the market's enormous upside potential on the long term. The 2 year pattern is a Channel Up after all and every January since 2023, a new rally starts which exceeds +20% in gains. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, the bullish trend will be dominant. We are aiming for another +21% rise like the previous Jan 2024 rally (TP = 6,950).
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"Awaiting Bearish Confirmation at Key Resistance Zone on DXY"Based on the chart of the U.S. Dollar Index:
1. **Trend Analysis**: The index is currently within an upward channel, indicating a bullish trend. The price is oscillating between the upper and lower boundaries of this channel.
2. **Recent Movements**: There’s a noticeable price peak around the upper boundary, suggesting potential exhaustion. The recent downward movement indicates the possibility of a reversal.
3. **Bearish Confirmation**: The note emphasizes waiting for bearish confirmation before executing any trades. This suggests that it's prudent to look for signs of trend reversal or weakening momentum before making a bearish move.
4. **Strategy**: The advice is clear: without confirmation of a bearish trend, no trading should occur, highlighting a cautious approach.
5. **Key Levels**: Watch for key support around the mid-channel and resistance near the upper boundary, which could signal entry or exit points.
Overall, the chart indicates a cautious approach is necessary, focusing on confirmations before taking any trading actions.
NASDAQ: First 4H Death Cross since September is a Buy Signal!Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.062, MACD = -70.200, ADX = 29.762) as it is on a downtrend since December 16th, almost 1 month. Technically this downtrend is the bearish wave of the medium term Channel Up. Last Wednesday the index formed its first 4H Death Cross since September 10th 2024 and interestingly enough, instead of bullish, it was a buy signal then. As the current bearish wave is now almost at the bottom of the Channel Up, this is technically a HL, thus the most efficient buy entry on the short term. The September bullish wave peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before a pullback under the 4H MA50 again, so we now turn bullish on Nasdaq, aiming again for the 1.236 Fib (TP = 22,500).
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NASDAQ (US100): Bullish Momentum Poised for New HighsThe NASDAQ (US100) continues to display strong bullish momentum, having recently broken above its previous higher high. The price has since retraced to test this level as support, aligning with the structure of a proposed ascending channel. With no bearish signals currently evident, the index shows potential to establish a new high.
*Trade responsibly and implement proper risk management strategies.
US30 Update - Continuation building? Thanks for checking out our latest update. Today, we are looking at the US30 daily chart.
After some heavy selling to end 2024, have we started to find a new point of support? If we see further confirmation price-wise with a new break higher and a new higher low, this could line up with a continuation pattern.
We have run over a few scenarios price-wise that we are watching moving forward. The key to the continuation is a hold of 42,260 support.
Will Trump taking office on the 20th have any influence? We will wait and see, but a break of support and trendline could be a warning sellers have further to go.
Happy New Year, good trading from Eightcap.
FTSE (UK100)BIAS: BULLISH
The FTSE(UK100) still ranging between 8400 and 8000... Break range and expect a big move (9K or retest 7800).
That rejection of 8100 makes me bullish bias X 2
If bias was to change
A solid push and resistance found around 8100-8000 would be expected.
Unless specifically timed with a low chance of alteration by external forces, anticipating the exact timing of events is unrealistic.
DOW JONES: Rare Channel Up bottom buy opportunityDow Jones remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.772, MACD = -242.050, ADX = 47.872) as despite trading on the 1D MA100, it has failed yet to recover the 1D MA50. Technically though, the price action is sitting exactly at the bottom of the long term Channel Up and the 1D RSI has formed a bottom fractal identical to those of June and April 2024. The minimum target on those has been +7.65% but since we have the R1 level to consider as Resistance, that will be our target (TP = 45,000).
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NASDAQ: Technical pullback presenting a buy opportunityNasdaq got oversold on 1H due to the strong selling on opening but remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.372, MACD = 205.380, ADX = 49.545) as it is still over the 1D MA50. More specifically, it was the rebound on the latter last Friday (Dec 20th) that has initiated the current bullish wave. This is the 5th bullish wave inside the 5 month Channel Up and as long as the 1D MA50 continues to support, we are expecting a new High. As with the prior Highs, we are targeting the 2.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,550).
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Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, Here’s an analysis of the DXY on the 1-hour chart, with your updated target of 107.100:
Current Analysis
Trend Overview:
The dollar index (DXY) is in a clear downtrend on the 1-hour chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Momentum indicators like RSI are likely staying below 50, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
Key Resistance Zone (108.100):
This is the potential sell zone, where the price may face rejection.
Look for a bearish candlestick pattern at or near this level (e.g., shooting star, evening star, bearish engulfing) to confirm the entry.
Support Zones on the Path to 107.100:
Intermediate Support 107.500: DXY might consolidate or bounce slightly here, as it's a possible reaction point.
Final Target 107.100: This aligns with a major support level from prior price action or Fibonacci retracement zones.
Indicators to Watch
RSI:
If RSI is below 40, it confirms strong bearish momentum.
Any divergence (e.g., higher low on RSI while price makes a lower low) near 107.500 or 107.100 could signal weakening downside momentum.
MACD:
Look for a bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) as confirmation to enter or hold the trade.
Volume:
A spike in volume near resistance (108.100) supports rejection. Similarly, decreasing volume near the target (107.100) could indicate trend exhaustion.
Trade Setup for 1-Hour Chart
Sell Entry: Around 108.100 (resistance zone).
Take Profit (Target): 107.100.
Stop Loss: Around 108.300, slightly above resistance, to account for volatility.
TVC:DXY
NASDAQ: Bullish until March 2025.Nasdaq is overbought on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.532, MACD = 396.420, ADX = 56.355) and is about to do the same on the 1W as well (RSI = 69.424). This is because the Bull Cycle is on full extent. However, in anticipation of Q1 2025, we are entering the final phase of the Cycle. This is a Top sequence that we've seen three time before in the last 10 years. The early signal for this is when the 3W RSI forms overbought (RSI > 70.000) LH. Each time that happened, the index had a sharp drop to at least the 3W MA50. TP = 19,000 could be an early target.
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DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
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NASDAQ: Buy near the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 259.490, ADX = 43.763) as it remains within the medium term Channel Up. The recent bearish wave is correcting the uptrend towards the 4H MA50, which if technically holds, should give way to the new bullish wave. The 4H RSI is headed towards its S1 Zone, which is the buying level so you can time the entries acccordingly. Our target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,000).
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DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
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NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up.
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A Drop Is Coming!Based on the NDS Mathematical Model, in the upcoming week, the final node F3 will be completed, and a decline across all indices is expected:
📉 First Target: 44,470
📉 Second Target: 42,846
📉 Third Target: 41,652
Following this decline, the Dow Jones Index is anticipated to resume its upward trend. Please note.
the responsibility for acting on this analysis lies solely with the individual trader!
DOW JONES: A few days of consolidation can push it to 46,100Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.114, MACD = 449.010, ADX = 35.064) and is printing a sequence much like post September 20th. That was a consolidation Channel that paved the way to the next bullish wave on the 1.5 Fib extension. This is a 4 month Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. As long as it does, aim for the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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DAX: rebounding on the 1D MA100. Buy opportunity.DAX is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.905, MACD = -31.600, ADX = 29.913) as it made a rebound near the 1D MA100 on Tuesday and has been consolidating inside the 4H MA50 - 1D MA100 range. The prevailing pattern is a Channel Down and looks the same as the May-June Channel Down which also rebounded on the 1D MA100. Until it formed a 4H Death Cross, the price stayed within the 4H MA50 - 1D MA100 range. The breakout that followed crossed over the 0.786 Fibonacci level and hit the R1 before being rejected. Consequently, we consider this a buy opportunity on the short term, aimed at the R1 level (TP = 19,550).
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S&P500: Bottom formed on the 4H MA200. Target 6,140.The S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.959, MACD = 37.160, ADX = 31.912) as it is on a sideways trade forming the new bottom of the Channel Up between the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200. The 1D RSI is on a bullish divergence that was present on both prior bottoms. Both rose by at least +5.30% after. That rise projection from the bottom is our target (TP = 6,140).
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DOW JONES: Bottom buy signal. Target 45,600.Dow Jones just turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.982, MACD = 339.670, ADX = 28.026) as it hit today the 4H MA200 after exactly 2 weeks. This is getting very close to the bottom of the 14 month Channel Up. Technically the last two HLs were formed when the 1D RSI double bottomed on the 30.00 oversold limit. Overall, this is a good enough buy opportunity to target yet another +6.80% bullish wave (TP = 45,600).
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NASDAQ: Touched the 4H MA200 and MACD Bullish Cross forming.Nasdaq turned neutral again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.926, MACD = 156.450, ADX = 29.632) as the price pulled back aggressively to the point that it reached the 4H MA200 again for the first time since the elections day. With the exception of Oct 31st, this level hasn't been touched since September 11th, as the trend is rising inside a Channel Up. The 4H MACD will form tomorrow a Bullish Cross, which has been an early buy signal on the previous bottoms. We expect a new bullish wave to begin. We aim again for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) like the two bullish waves of the pattern.
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