SP500 INDEX PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (REVERSAL!)Overall evaluation of the SP500 is bearish within a 1-2Y time frame mini trend, but not on the grand picture. Greetings everyone, we dumped very hard this past few days but this is a sign of a potential reversal. The fact that the candle closed as a DRAGONFLY DOJI , this is a warning for all shorters to consider that the bulls are now entering the market. The proper way to trade this signal is to wait for confirmation on the next daily candle, but seeing as how
it is a text-book perfect dragonfly doji on any manual you can find, this is especially stronger in a daily time frame.
We will probably get rejected again on the moving averages after this mini-trend change. The catalyst for the mini dump we had today was a negative sentiment report from U.S. Michigan.
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TIP:
SP500 also had a reverse hammer on the hourly charts followed by a green candle -- also called as a bullish harami.
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large cap semiconductors carrying market lower or highernasdaq us large cap semiconductors are carrying big tech right now. if they drag the market lower im bearish on the broader market. if we bounce in this group especially NVDA and AMD i think were headed for a test of the weekly lower high around 5500 translating to a $15 SOXL. if we bearflag, and head lower id imagine were in for much more of a drop. the pivot is dashed and upper/lower horizontals are solid lines. the extended line rising is the recent low linked to the all time low. if we break below this range its bearish for SOXL and the market in general.
has tech retraced enough off this bottom to hold?if we get support over this pivot and the 0.5 retracement level id imagine we would have a bull pull up to a sell the rip level. if we get resistance to this pivot i see that well have a continued selloff to lower horizontals. if we have resistance to upper horizontals i think were at a sell the rip level. if we support along lower horizontals i see that were at a buy the dip level. if we start to breech lower horizontals with volume tech is bearish, and if we start to breech upper horizontals tech is bullish. the red or green ghost feed is a path the nasdaq could follow.trama sinking and resisting is bearish. trama rising and supporting is bullish. qqe and sss red or green is long or short. if we stay short qqe and red sss it s bearish if we turn green sss and long qqe its bullish.
qqe and sss are long but there is some doubtwe can look at signals all day and say theyre bullish, but the reality is that they are only bullish until they're not. this means thatwhen facts change you have to change the trade to meet the trend. i would trade a break of this pivot as bullish, and staying below it as bearish. we could follow the green or red path. sell if qqe or sss go red.
what does a break of 4000 mean for the s&p?nothing, or little to nothing can bedrawn from just the break of 4000 alone. 4000 is a psychological level thathasnt been visited for any great length of time since the first time we saw that level. if we get back above this sss supply zone were headed for the pivot, and if we fade out of that zone were headed for lower horizontals.
need green sss for long term buy nasdaqrecent data suggesting the bottom is probably not in for the nasdaq means we need to see sss signal green on the monthly and cross above pivot for upper horizontals to be in play. till then were not averse to lower horizontals, or even touching the sss supply zone. qqe going long monthly would mean a long term entry averaging up into nasdaq funds would be profitable.
hard turn up for vixes1! puts have been lining up for a pump in vx1! and this is captured in uvxy hourly as a bullish engulfing in reversal in red territory sss candles. as long as we hold hourly lows vix and we cross above pivot turning sss signal green and printing a qqe long upper horizontals are in play.
what if we distribute further in major indices?spx is in a correction wave of a terminal thrust distributively, and if we sink we distribute further. the .382, tram, and sss ma are levels of resistance and .618 and lower anchored vwap band are levels of support, .5 and nearby levels are pivot, but we may trend much lower in major indices. there are still bullish scenarios marked out and fib retrace levels are a guide as well as sss signal and qqe entries.
its pretty obvious the fed seems determined to tank this markettechnology is not playing the feds game, and they are rubbing elbows with china especially where semiconductors are concerned. the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and big corporations dont like a populace with buying power. the job of the reserve banks is to assist borrowers while preserving the lenders capacity, and with this particular administration volatility seems to be the most profitable route. this means one thing. the bear market rally everyone feared is here. im predicting a dead cat bounce followed by continued downside.
rangebound trading cant last bear flag or breakoutprice action daily nasdaq is ranging around the lows with the bounce not escaping vertical gravity, and the candlestick pattern forming either a bear flag or a bullish reversal. if we cross above pivot im looking at upper horizontals as resistance, and if we cross below it im looking at lower horizontals as support.
i do think the vix is going to bounce, but not yeti think the vix will have to sink before it gets the rebound that it seems destined for. ive marked out a couple scenarios. if we climb above pivot i would look for upper horizontals and one of the green scenarios yo play out. if we remain beneath it id look for one of the red scenarios and lower horizontals.
a few different scenarios for emini nasdaq front monthif we enter this sss suply zone and bounce we may have one of the green scenarios play out. if we fall beneath it and start confirming a lower high on some resistance beneath it we could be headed for one ofthe red scenarios. below pivot im looking at lower horizontals and above it im looking for higher lines.
Nifty level tomorrow We see today a good buy in nifty if we calculate total move of nifty thn nifty can move more thn 300 points today now what for Tomorrow?? We see today close of nifty was below 17597 (17577) we make our Tomorrow view was bearish due to closing now we are bullish in nifty / buy nifty above 17597 bcs if it break this level thn it make a good bullish head &shoulder after that our target 17635 17691 17744
Sl 17575
Sell nifty below 17559
Target 17520 17490 17455
Sl 17600
See our view was bearish for opening bcz of closing if it crossed the level of 17597 thn we are bullish but before that we are bearish
not all is woe for the s&plooks like we may touch that sss moving average, and then revisit trama. if we remain beneath this pivot i think the supports marked out are in play, and if we climb back above it the upper resistances are targets. we are inside the bar enough that a bounce could lead to bullish action, but still hanging low enough that if we break the previous sessions lows its hard to find an area that stops the bleeding.
playing a dangerous game with vixthe vix, vx1! and s&p500 volatility index is making its rounds around a pivot price. if we cross above that and trama i would look for a test of sss moving average and upperhorizontals. if we staybeneath pivot and trama i wouldlook for continued weakness and lower horizontals. uvxy is the instrument to play.
is this daily rejection from resistance or a bear trap?SPY and emini es1! futures have signaled the start of daily consolidation for the S&P500, and a rejection from the monthly trendline. this idea is simple. if we confirm a lower monthly high, and the beginning of a reversal by remaining below the pivot i would aim for sss supports and lower horizontals. if we remain rangebound, and break out above pivot i would aim for upper horizontals. this resistance is stiff, and it would not be surprising to see SPXL a good 4-8% lower here. im tracking the underlying index with SPY, but the instrument i would use is SPXL. if we gap up id wager intraday turns bearish, and if we gap down i would look to close that gap with bearish activity to follow.