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Indextrading

its pretty obvious the fed seems determined to tank this markettechnology is not playing the feds game, and they are rubbing elbows with china especially where semiconductors are concerned. the dollar is the worlds reserve currency, and big corporations dont like a populace with buying power. the job of the reserve banks is to assist borrowers while preserving the lenders capacity, and with this particular administration volatility seems to be the most profitable route. this means one thing. the bear market rally everyone feared is here. im predicting a dead cat bounce followed by continued downside.
NASDAQ:TQQQShort
by cerealpatterns
Nifty level tomorrow We see today a good buy in nifty if we calculate total move of nifty thn nifty can move more thn 300 points today now what for Tomorrow?? We see today close of nifty was below 17597 (17577) we make our Tomorrow view was bearish due to closing now we are bullish in nifty / buy nifty above 17597 bcs if it break this level thn it make a good bullish head &shoulder after that our target 17635 17691 17744 Sl 17575 Sell nifty below 17559 Target 17520 17490 17455 Sl 17600 See our view was bearish for opening bcz of closing if it crossed the level of 17597 thn we are bullish but before that we are bearish
NSE:NIFTY
by devved19
is this daily rejection from resistance or a bear trap?SPY and emini es1! futures have signaled the start of daily consolidation for the S&P500, and a rejection from the monthly trendline. this idea is simple. if we confirm a lower monthly high, and the beginning of a reversal by remaining below the pivot i would aim for sss supports and lower horizontals. if we remain rangebound, and break out above pivot i would aim for upper horizontals. this resistance is stiff, and it would not be surprising to see SPXL a good 4-8% lower here. im tracking the underlying index with SPY, but the instrument i would use is SPXL. if we gap up id wager intraday turns bearish, and if we gap down i would look to close that gap with bearish activity to follow.
AMEX:SPYShort
by cerealpatterns
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * The Fed Minutes confirmed preexisting knowledge that inflation is still the primary concern for the economy (making this release a low impact event) and that more downsizing of the Fed balance sheet + another 50bps is the baseline scenario for the next FOMC meeting on 09/21. Fed Staff (FOMC) agreed that 3.4% is the current peak target rate for FFR, the current range is 2.25%-2.5% implying that perhaps two 25bp rate hikes will follow September's anticipated 50bps hike to end the year. Some participants (Fed members) commented on how commodities (primarily energy and food) are likely to keep inflation up in the near term, some Participants mentioned that the policy adjustments are already seeing a substantial effect but almost all agreed that most of the effects haven't been felt yet, and most participants agreed that they support rate hikes until PCE is closer to the 2% long-run target. July US Retail Sales stayed roughly the same as in June and posted ~0% change compared to estimates of 0.1% (sales are still up 9.2% from July 2021), this surprised many analysts who expected more spending with the recent significant reduction in gas prices. Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US August PMI at 945am EST on 08/23; US Q2 Final GDP Estimate at 830am EST 08/25; US July PCE at 830am EST 08/26; UofM Final August Sentiment Survey Index at 10am EST 08/26; Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on 08/25-08/27.* Price is currently testing $4254 minor support after being rejected by the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4325. Volume remains consistently Moderate and broke a three day streak of buyer dominance with a seller dominated close in today's session; this was a capitulation type of initial reaction which is indicative of a critical resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $4220, this margin is bearish. RSI is currently testing 68.42 support after forming a soft peak at 73. Stochastic is bearish and currently trending down at 87; it remains in the 'bullish autobahn zone' which is mildly bullish at the moment. MACD remains bullish but is beginning to trend sideways as it forms a soft peak just above the ATH (91.78) at 93.54; it has been bullish for 54 days now, implying that perhaps this is more than just a bear market rally. ADX is currently trending up at 31 as Price continues to push higher, this is bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here at $4254 minor support then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 + the 50 MA at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price loses $4254 minor support , it will likely retest $4175 support before potentially retesting the uptrend line from 06/16 at ~$4k psychological support. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4226.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
1
looks like were headed for consolidation in SPXweve had a big runup to major resistance, and were inside that sss supply zone below a pivot marked out by the dotted line. if we stay beneath that area treating it as resistance i would aim for the lower horizontals looking to retest the sss moving average or signal. if we breech that resistance to the upside i would aim for the upper horizontals. most likely scenario is a move up to close the gap in the underlying index, or at least some bounce followed by continued downside and consolidation.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by cerealpatterns
Could CPI data help the US30 confirm a continuation? Hi, and welcome to today’s update. In today’s video update, we’re looking at the US30 and wondering if today’s CPI could break the consolidation deadlock we are currently seeing price sitting in. Price continues to be held in an ascending triangle pattern, and in uptrends, these are typically seen as continuation patterns. We can clearly see that price remains in an uptrend, so if we see better than expected CPI data today, could that be a driver that sets off buyers? Better than expected data could tell the market that peak inflation could be here and that rates could move into a holding phase or at least see a smaller increase. But if we see worse than expected data, this could set the pattern up to fail, and we could see a new break lower. For now, we will look for the current trend to remain in play until we see further price action telling us otherwise. US CPI data is due out at 8:30 am EST. Good trading, and enjoy your Wednesday.
EIGHTCAP:US30Long
by Eightcap
a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 48% SPX, 52% Cash. * NANCY PELOSI WATCH. S&P Global released their final July US Manufacturing PMI estimate this morning and it came in at 52.2, slightly lower compared to both June's PMI and the consensus estimate of 52.3; this is the lowest it has been since July 2020. The Atlanta Fed released their second GDPNow Q3 estimate today and it came in at +1.3%, down from the initial estimate of +2.1% on 07/29/22. According to Reuters, CNN and 'Taiwanese media', Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Taiwan tomorrow against the wishes of the PRC; though military countermeasures have been promised but are not expected, if this does happen it would surely shake up markets due to the uncertainty regarding how mainland China will respond. Key dates remaining this week: Nancy Pelosi potentially visiting Taiwan tomorrow night (08/02) and speaking to lawmakers and human rights groups on Wednesday (08/03); St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks @ 645pm EST (08/02); Cleveland Fed Loretta Mester speaks 12pm EST (08/03); July BLS Employment Situation @ 830am EST (08/04).* Price is currently facing some selling pressure at ~$4120 as it aims to retest $4175 resistance. Volume is Moderate and on track to favor buyers for a fourth consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish just below the 50 MA at $3900. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 65 after forming a peak at 66 (just below 68.42 resistance); Hidden Bearish Divergence between Price and RSI can be seen from 06/02/22, this is significant due to the potential local Double Top formation. Stochastic remains bullish but is trending down at 98.5 after testing max top for the first time in ten sessions; if it breaks below 93.5 it would be a bearish crossover. MACD remains bullish for the 38th consecutive session and is currently trending up at 49.50 as it approaches 55 minor resistance with no signs of peak formation. ADX is currently trending up at 19 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to push higher then it will likely formally retest $4175 resistance where it may see a bit of selling pressure. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest the uptrend line from 06/16/22 as support at ~$4k . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4175.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
US100 Long 1h Wyckoff Trailing StopThis analysis is based on the scenario that we are about to complete the schematic with a following rally. A possible position can be placed like: -50% of total position size on the LPS after we have seen some Sign Of Strength. -50% of total position size on the LPS after we have seen the Sign Of strength of the smaller area. (something more that 12865) Scaling stop loss starting (11698) and after the final position becoming something less than (12380). Target being the good reference point of (14248).
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by koumkouat