Indextrading
Market Recap and levels to watch for the coming sessionUS markets saw a late session beating to push prices sharply lower into the close and continue the recent selloff. Watch the video for a more detailed breakdown on my Macro picture and key levels I am watching in major markets.
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context for the crossroads (uvxy)i just wanted to show people why this could still go very badly for broader market longs.
im not doomsaying, or fear mongering here. im simply outlining why i still have a long forecast for vix, even though we are almost breaking to new lows in uvxy.
the highlighted areas are times in the very recent past where spx has increased in volatility even while indices were on the verge of fully recovering.
again, im not saying long this thing right now. im pointing out how this could still be a bullish position for vix longs even while the market appears to be about to recover fully.
dont jump into uvxy trying to call the bottom, but do stay cautious!
this can still go both ways and tuesday is going to be critical.
S&P500: No Time to Relax 🥵S&P500 has lived through two exhausting weeks, exploring virtually every level of the blue area between 4698 and 4552 points, and lately going below it on its search for a new low. However, there is no time to relax now! We expect the index to finish wave in blue just below the blue area (and allow him a buffer zone only until 4492 points). Then, it should be full of go again. The following surge should slingshot the index up into the upper blue area between 4992 and 5099 points, where the destination of wave in blue should be located.
However, we have worked out an alternative that is not to be sneezed at! There is a 40% chance that the index could initially go further down if it lingers below the support at 4492 points. It shouldn’t fall below 4269 points though. The trend reversal should take place in the lower blue belt between 4399 and 4293 points and ensure a new rise.
All in all, S&P500 should be ready to go up again before touching the support at 4492 points. Still, with a probability of 40%, it could slide below this mark at first.
Stock Index selloff and key levels to watch on major marketsA rally in crude oil triggered more concern into inflation and interest rate rises which saw a stock market selloff. In the video I look through the key levels I am watching on major Indexes, US bonds and the USD.
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QQQ Put Credit SpreadI believe tech will remain strong, and this trade also has a large margin of error.
Opened for a 0.40 Credit.
Looking at the chart, this trade lines up perfectly with a support zone, in addition QQQ is still trending upwards on a quarterly basis. This is a bit of a reversion trade in the sense that I am taking advantage of the pullback to collect adequate premium at a low delta short strike ( 0.14 or 1.4 STD).
This trade in combination with the XLE trade from yesterday has shifted my portfolio from Delta neutral to a small long market bias.
two ways this can go (spx)since we didnt immediately continue higher, but stopped just shy of getting above fridays close spx has retraced to the .382 of the bounce.
my idea is simple: if we stay above 4638 its likely to bull flag, and if we dont its likely to revisit 4600 around the .786, or at leats the bottom of low anchored vwap around 4616 or the .618
the key will be sector rotation, and if xlf, spy, and qqq are hitting lows at the same time then a decline is more likely. if some sectors and big stocks are doing well while others suffer a little, then rotation and a bullflag in the index is more likely.
spx volatility appears to be returning in a big way (es1!)unfortunately for broader market longs i think we are in for another increase in volatility running into the first part of the new week.
i imagine we have one more run up toward resistance to fakeout the bulls before support fails like it has since the bottom at 10am est on friday.
the current hourly inside bar tells me to set up long toward 4668, but momentum and other indications are saying a decline to 4643 is very likely.
Bank Nifty 15 min TF BREAKOUT AND RESTEST with bullish momentumretest with bullish hammer indicates strength. triangle pattern breakout and restest done entry should be in next 15 min bullish candle
US100 (Free Signal)Happy New Year for you all Newbies Intermediate Expert - I wish you all a blessed and profitable 2022.
I wish you more health , more wisdom , more knowledge , more profits.
Don't forget... trade is your perspective about your own life , never judge anyone , never care about what you dont know.
Be more disciplined , Be more Motivated , Be more Human , Be more YOU.
Gillionaire Global the place where knowledge never die and Numbers never lie
head and shoulders if we roll over and break neck (es1!)its pretty clear that setting a lower high on the hourly, especially around the left shoulders price, and breaking to new lows and closing 15 mins in bear territory would be a bearish pattern for s&p500 futures to put
aiming for a touch of vwap (uvxy)uvxy entering bullish divergence territory rsi/macd 13.78 a target for oversold bounce play
two vix forecasts that could both hit (uvxy)this is a dual forecast for volatility index futures derivative uvxy
by the end of the week we may dip below the 13.89 area
by fri, jan 7 '22 we may rise above the 14.5 area
4 hr shaping up for a melt up if cash opens hot to the downsides&p500 futures will enjoy a period of increased volatility if the situation arises for topfishers to take in a larger volume than the recent longs minus the profit taking amount
this will lead to a higher high on the daily compared to 4743
SP500: Top or Flop?After making significant gains, the S&P500 falls short of rising above the resistance line at 4711 points, which approves that this is an important mark. We expect the course to extend gains into the white area. However, an alternative drop ist possible, too. Here, the index would be in a bigger correction until the blue area is reached.
Exciting times!
Full recovery for the nasdaq (TQQQ)Big tech carrying the market. i dont expect this to stop any time soon, even if we sell off in the interim
DAX: Primary Push?The DAX has excellently recovered from its low and is celebrating it with some great runs. However, within the blue box, where the index is currently located at, there is a high chance that this current surge is only short-lived. With a chance of 40%, the course might drop all the way down to the pink area.
Don't be too fast!
Are we building for a deeper selloff or a bounceAsian markets remain looking heavy as the HSI and Nikkei Daily timeframes press lower. The US has been more resilient to negative news and remains focused on inflation and interest rates. The question is how much of the good news ie/ strong economy and bounce from pandemic lows has been factored in to price action in the US. If the US start to take a hit, then other markets will follow....so are Asian shares markets flagging what is to come. Check out the video for a more detailed look at key levels for major US, Asian and Australian Indexes.
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NIFTY : Time Series Targets for Jan'22Will NIFTY Cross 18600 in Jan'22
Time Series Extrapolation indicates crossing in Jan 1st week.
S&P 500 Index (SPX) Forecast 2022-2023Hello friends, today I am reviewing the yearly linear scale chart for S&P 500 Index (SPX).
In the chart I noted:
1) The price has been rising consistently since 1989-1990 with the price moving up in an Arc Pattern since 2009.
2) The price touched the Arc trendline in 2009 and again in 2020. If the price comes down to touch the Arc trendline in 2022, that would be a 40% drop. If it comes down in 2023, the price would drop 30%.
3) In 2009, the price dropped around 38%. I took the RSI at that time and matched it with the RSI at the current levels. If the current price falls, the RSI may also fall to the 60 to 61 range.
4) The RSI (relative strength index) has had a long standing support and resistance at 60 to 61. There is also a long term bottom trendline on the RSI dating back to 1932, in case it falls further.
A drop in the price to meet the Arc trendline is coming up. Let's see if it is in 2022 or 2023?
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
Asian Markets melting down and do not look healthy longer termThe Nikkei and Hang Seng along with my local ASX200 are well under pressure today and may see further downside in coming sessions. In the video I take a look at the daily charts for my major Indexes and discuss where I see the risk and how I will look to trade any downside if this weakness continues.
