Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways.
This is the bullish picture for uvxy:
This is the bearish picture:
The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
Indextrading
Bearish momentum should stay (TQQQ)Rsi needs to bullishly diverge further, so the drop in price should be larger. There's really little room to judge this as a lower low that could hold. Around 40 is an area that might induce bullish activity. I wouldn't look for a long entry right now, but there will be one eventually. This is damage that will last up to the monthly.
Vwma has turned down, and qqe is still short.
this is big (TQQQ)i see a full recovery if broader market bulls can continue this turn around. should we find ourselves in a position where melt up is taking place, i think we have no choice but to go with that. the daily picture is shaping up in bulls favor, but the smart thing to do is wait for confirmation of the trend change.
setting new lows in indices (nq1!)if we fail some area below gap close and trend lower we could find ourselves under 13800 soon as the ukraine border crisis plays out.
we are trending under vwma 18, hl2 offset 8 and qqe signals strategy is short. rsi looks like it will need to bullishly diverge further.
higher low weekly in the works (NQ1!)id like to see weakness sunday that turns around early next week as we are likely to find some level around the .5 or .618 of the bounce signaling another run up at 14500 to see if that trendline, vwma and anchored vwap are still resistive on the hourly timeframe.
front month vix futures remain overbought (vx1!)the upside in short term vix futures remains muted as limitations on how far out broader market shorts in the money puts are due to backwardation in front month contracts. this is leading to derivatives like UVXY to probably continue to sell off of overbought.
we could find ourselves back in the low 14s UVXY if we see 22 vix again which should be soon. if we go over 28 vix id imagine were headed for 20 UVXY. the weekly picture for vix is bearish.
NIFTY 50Index Outlook given in the chart itself
*********************************************************************************************
DISCLAIMER: I am not a SEBI registered investment advisor.
This content is for educational purposes only.
Invest capital at your own risk only after doing your own due diligence
*********************************************************************************************
overbought vix (UVXY)i wouldnt want to be holding this thing long right now. were at 84 rsi hourly and a pullback from these levels seems like its in the works.
mid to high 15s is the target. even if we gap up and blast to the upside, i dont think were really in hot water unless spx breaks to new lows, and it doesnt seem like thats going to happen.
seems a lot like volatility has returned as the norm (SPXL)theres a chance that getting back to all time highs may take a lonh time, and when we get there we may be heading into another drop. if volatility has returned as the new norm there is a lot of evidence to suggest that we wont see a stronger market than 2021 until at least 2023. should we make a second break to the downside whether it is sooner or later a touch of vwma monthly is not unthinkable.
range bound into the end of the week (nq1!)nasdaq futures should continue their recovery, but remain volatile into the end of the week. by the first part of next week we should have a break, qnd it would be nice to see a bull break. a break of the lows isnt impossible though, and well cross that bridge when we come to it.
vix churning lower, should spring back then decline (UVXY)this is a rapid consecutive forecast going into the end of the week
i dont foresee vix ending above week highs, but there could be bounce if we dont immediately continue lower on the daily
the forecast cluster represents output from the ghost feed
this is based on qqe, rsi, vwma
14.74, 14.24, 13.81 are key levels
nasdaq bear making moves under week highs (SQQQ)generally this etf is going one direction: down, but the weight may be lifted off its shoulders briefly as calls expiring next week are eliminated. if we cant break to new intraday highs i would imagine sqqq has one last trip above 40 only to get sucked back to vwma.
US Indexes had a late burst higher to end in the greenMorning Jumpstart Macro View and US market recap 1-02-22
The US had a late session burst higher that dragged the major Indexes into green territory ahead of key US employment data Friday. The USD continues to grind lower while Gold was range bound. Copper had a strong session while Oil continues to hold recent gains setting for another push higher.
For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments.
View more at www.tradethestructure.com
consecutive forecast for weeks ahead (TQQQ)i think we will see a lower high, followed by a lower low, but we will stay over the .382, and then continue higher
every period of volatility that dried up quickly or was extenuating in nature was v shaped, and every period that was more exaggerated or corrective in nature was cypher shaped.
we could bull cypher with a touch of support, but if we break it things will get much more serious quite quickly. if we break the 0 of extension the picture will clear up greatly for nasdaq bulls.
sundays session should be bullish continuation, and we should open higher monday and then begin the flush to new lows middle of the week of the 6th, unless we immediately continue higher over 59
nasdaq futures at resistance, could beat it (TQQQ)this is simple. were at the major resistance in nasdaq furures. if we stay over the .382 of fib trend extend we will probably bull flag, and this could mean we see the 0 of that pattern quite soon (around $55.94)
stop loss around 52.89 as this would mean we need a retest of major support.
Market Recap and levels to watch for the coming sessionsMorning Jumpstart Macro View 26-01-22
US markets found some buying early only to give way to selling pressure into the close to close the Indexes in negative territory. FOMC is out late in the coming US session which weighed on the market especially tech (Nasdaq).
For a deeper look at the price action, key levels and what I see playing out...watch the video and feel free to leave any comments.
Thanks for watching and please take some time to check out the website.
we should see a bounce some time in the following week (SPXL)i really want to stress that i am not saying the daily/weekly trend is going to change right back to bull.
with that said, i think there is money to be made long over the next week, as long as futures sunday dont have the craziest bear session since corona.
some shorts are going to cover on the next drop, and this is going to cause a small squeeze.
i dont think all time highs are in the cards yet for broader market bulls. i do think 106 and 119 are reasonable targets. rsi is diverging bullishly, and dipping into the high teens would signal oversold conditions.
i realize this differs from my SPY forecast. that is a long term forecast on an unleveraged asset. i am using different strategies for different instruments.
qqe long entry signal should be due soon, although there have already been 3 signals that only led to small bounces, and not a return to a bull trend since the top.
volatility in the dollar should continue (DXY)fib trend extend says the hourly picture could still be bullish for the dollar, but continued resistance around the 95.8 area, and continued support around the 95.4 area is likely.
this should mean cheaper prices for stocks, but i dont imagine the fed can keep its finger off the printer button for long.
a break above or below the horizontal lines and 4 hr close would be considered bullish or bearish respectively.
favorite USD pairings at the moment for a bull break in DXY would be NZD and AUD, and my favorite dollar pairings for a bear break would be JPY or EUR.