[Bullish] Long term wave 5 in progressNSE:NIITLTD caught my attention last week due to multiple bulk deals and then today the stock skyrocketed to UC with 20% move.
We seem to be in last wave (5th) of current major cycle that started in 2013. Right now, we seem to be in minor wave 3rd of larger 5th. Ideal entry point would be >=155 though the stock may not give that opportunity if it's gaps up tomorrow and keeps moving up.
As per wave equality (1=5), target for wave 5 should be around 500. Note that this is 6M chart.
India
Multi-year Trendline BreakoutNSE:LOVABLE has broken out from a multi-year downward sloping trendline.
Structure looks like inverted H&S though I would avoid calling it as I prefer to go by strict technical definition of H&S which says inverted (or bullish) H&S should form after a decline since it's a trend reversal pattern. Decline is there but the whole decline is in form on H&S instead of H&S formed after a decline. Anyhow it's just a technicality and we can treat it as a breakout. Feel free to call it a trendline BO or H&S BO.
As for target, technical target should be above 700 as per the height of structure. However, I would prefer to trade it with multiple smaller targets. I would look for 300 as the next major then will wait for price action to confirm if it would go further and target would be 400. Next would be 550 and then 700.
[Bullish] BBOX in minor wave 3 of larger 3NSE:BBOX seem to have started minor wave 3 of larger 3. Volumes are looking good and as per equality, larger wave 3 should go above 3000.
Nearly half of wave 3 is done so the remaining move should occur relatively quickly, within next 1.5-2 years. Having said that, estimating time is always tricky so take it with a pinch of salt.
CMP is 517 which gives a potential of nearly 6X move.
[Bullish] GOKULAGRO starting major wave 3NSE:GOKULAGRO seem to have started long term wave 3 as per this monthly chart after a textbook clean wave 1 from Elliott Wave perspective.
Currently trading at 235 and wave 3 conservative target (as per equality principle) is around 2000. Wave 1 took nearly 2.5 years so we can expect similar time as wave 3 are usually the fastest. Even if we keep some margin, 3 years sounds a reasonable timeframe for wav 3 to complete.
Volumes also support the current move.
NIFTY Doing exactly what is expected from it.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) continues to offer us some of the most effective trading opportunities as it continues to replicated the 2023 price action. Last time (June 13, see chart below), it broke as we expected above its Megaphone (imitating the December 04 2023 bullish break-out) and hit our 24650 Target, making a symmetrical +15.67% rise:
This time we are presented with another buy opportunity as following the recent drop, the index managed to find Support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), exactly at the bottom of the short-term Megaphone. This is another remarkable symmetric structure with the January 24 Low. On top of that, the 1D RSI rebounded on its 5-month Support Zone.
That Jan 24 low initiated a slow rise that completed a +6.64% uptrend before the 1D MA50 broke. As a result, we consider this a strong medium-term buy opportunity, with a 25500 Target (+6.64%).
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India's Nifty 50: A Rising Star in a Geopolitical StormIn 2023, the Indian stock market, represented by the Nifty 50 index, has emerged as a standout performer. Outpacing its U.S. counterpart, the S&P 500, by a significant margin, the Nifty 50 has captured the attention of global investors. Several factors converge to explain this impressive performance, with geopolitical tensions playing a pivotal role.
The Great Manufacturing Shift: India as a Prime Beneficiary
One of the most compelling narratives driving India's economic ascent is the global shift in manufacturing. As the world grapples with heightened geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating tensions between the United States and China, businesses are seeking to diversify their supply chains. India, with its vast market, skilled workforce, and government's "Make in India" initiative, has emerged as a compelling alternative to China for many multinational corporations.
Diversification of Supply Chains: Companies like Apple and Google are actively exploring manufacturing operations in India to reduce their reliance on China. This trend extends to various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and textiles.
Government Support: India's government has proactively created a conducive business environment through infrastructure development, tax incentives, and ease of doing business reforms. These efforts have boosted investor confidence and accelerated the country's industrialization process.
India's Economic Characteristics and Domestic Consumption
India's strong domestic consumption and the rise in manufacturing are major factors in the country's economic expansion. The demand for goods and services is increasing due to the growing middle class and increased disposable incomes. The approach of consumption-led growth enhances the resilience of the Indian economy by acting as a buffer against external shocks.
India's economy boasts several key characteristics:
Rapid Growth: India has consistently been one of the fastest-growing major economies globally.
Large Domestic Market: With a population of over 1.4 billion, India offers a vast consumer base, driving domestic consumption.
Young Population: A large and young workforce provides a demographic dividend, fueling economic potential.
IT and Services Dominance: The IT and services sector is a major contributor to India's GDP, with companies excelling in software development, outsourcing, and business process management.
Agricultural Importance: Agriculture remains a crucial sector, employing a significant portion of the population, although its contribution to GDP is declining.
Challenges and Opportunities
While India's economic trajectory is promising, it faces challenges such as:
Infrastructure Gaps: Improving infrastructure, including transportation, energy, and digital connectivity, is essential for sustained growth.
Poverty and Inequality: Addressing poverty and reducing income inequality remains a priority.
Education and Skill Development: Investing in education and skill development is crucial to enhancing human capital.
Environmental Concerns: One of the main challenges is balancing environmental sustainability with economic growth.
Despite these challenges, India offers immense opportunities for businesses and investors:
Large Consumer Market: The growing middle class presents a lucrative market for consumer goods and services.
Favorable Government Policies: The government's focus on economic reforms and ease of doing business creates a conducive environment for investment.
Digital Transformation: India's rapid adoption of digital technologies presents opportunities in e-commerce, fintech, and digital payments.
The Road Ahead
While the Nifty 50's performance has been impressive, challenges remain. Inflationary pressures, global economic uncertainties, and the potential impact of a prolonged geopolitical standoff could pose risks. However, India's demographic dividend, its digital transformation, and its focus on renewable energy offer promising avenues for long-term growth. Continued focus on infrastructure, education, and skill development will be crucial for realizing its full potential.
In today's complex geopolitical environment, India seems well-placed to take advantage of the opportunities arising from global supply chain disruptions. The performance of the Nifty 50 index reflects India's increasing economic influence and its potential to emerge as a global manufacturing and consumption hub.
SWING IDEA - ICICI LOMBARD GENIn this analysis, we will explore key technical indicators and chart patterns that suggest ICICI Lombard GEN may be poised for a favorable uptrend. We'll delve into the factors contributing to the positive sentiment surrounding the stock.
Reasons are listed below :
The 1410 levels underwent multiple tests before the price eventually broke through. Currently, the price is in the process of retesting those levels.
Hammer candle (positive sign) on a very crucial support zone.
50EMA support on daily timeframe.
0.382 Fibonacci support.
Stock price is above 50 and 200EMA i.e the trend is intact.
Target - 1490 // 1611
StopLoss - Daily close below 1370
NSE:CERA India toilet boom 🚽 get set go..Half of India couldn't access a toilet 5 years ago. Modi built 110M latrines
Incorporated in July 1998, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd is headed by Mr Vikram Somany; the company manufactures sanitaryware and faucets and outsources wellness products and tiles. The sanitaryware and faucet plants are in Kadi, Gujarat, with capacity of 36 lakh and 18.5 lakh pieces per annum, respectively.
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The Company has been constantly launching new designs in Sanitaryware, Faucets and Tiles. The new designs are indigenously developed by in-house teams, after feedback from the market. This helps the Company to be seen a leader in product offerings. #
NSE:CERA
SGX: CY6U Capitaland India Trust AnalysisDisclosure: As of 07/12/2024 I have no open position in SGX: CY6U
Capitaland India Trust is a REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) that invests in commercial real estate across India.
They invest in office, data center, and logistics properties. Their portfolio is diversified across 5 major cities in India. In order of exposure: Hyderabad, Bangalor, Chennai, Pune, and Mumbai.
One risk to be aware of is the currency fluctuations of INR to SGD as well as the currency in you home country may affect returns. The company is highly profitable and looks to have manageable debt positions. Their debt is based in both SGD and INR.
The largest tenant of CY6U is Tata Consultancy Services, making up a total of 12% of base rents. The next largest are Infosys and Amazon at 6% and 4% respectively.
The company has a strong record of performance both in terms of profitability and return on investment. Debt levels appear to be manageable and management very competent.
***Please Note: Debt to equity shown in the chart is out of date. Check most recent reports on CY6U investor relations for current debt levels***
The company is currently trading below book value and has a P/E of less than 10. With a dividend yield of 6% you have an earnings and dividend return of 15%. This is not including any potential growth the company may experience in its earnings or asset value.
Summary: Capitaland India Trust seems to be a quality company that is likely undervalued. Potentially due to the fact it is listed in Singapore as opposed to in India. Considering the growth in India buying this high quality assets below book value looks very appealing. I will update with further research and if I open a position.
#IOC ready for breakoutIndian Oil Corporation Limited looks ready for breakout. As of now, stock has been under consolidation just above Previous ATH levels and forming a bullish MA formation along with nice volume breakout.
SL can be of 5% (candle closing basis) with targets of ₹217 levels.
First target can be of ₹196.
Do your own research before investing as this is just the stock idea that I am sharing.
India's inflation data in focus as Modi meets Putin As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures.
India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this enduring relationship is energy cooperation, which has played a pivotal role in stabilizing fuel prices and, consequently, inflation in India.
In May 2024, India's annual consumer inflation rate eased to 4.75%, down slightly from 4.83% in April. Projections for the upcoming data suggest a minor decrease to 4.70%.
However, Reuters reports indicate a different trend. According to a poll of 54 economists, inflation in India likely edged up in June, breaking a five-month streak of declines. This increase is attributed to a surge in vegetable prices, driven by extreme weather conditions damaging crops. The poll forecasts inflation rising to 4.80% year-on-year in June, up from 4.75% in May. Food prices, which constitute around half of the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket, are a significant factor in this anticipated rise.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
The USD/INR potentially maintains its bullish bias, staying above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Upside targets include 83.65, the upper boundary of its trading range. On the downside, the 100-day EMA at 83.40 serves as an initial support level for the pair.
NSE:NESCO - Long term uptrend - slow mover👍
✅ Long term uptrend
✅ Averaging up
✅Key levels ( blue line) monthly closing basis
✅Company is debt-free K
✅Office, exhibition and food ( cloud kitchen) and Mumbai Real Estate play
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❎ Post COVID-19 office rental space to watch out
❎ Slow mover
❎ Missing growth is the Indabrator engineering business
Disc: Invested , do you own research
India's inclusion in the JPMorgan Index is set to unlock billionBig Win for India: Indian government bonds are now included in JPMorgan's emerging markets index, a first for the world's fastest-growing large economy. This move is expected to trigger significant foreign investments, reshape India's financial landscape, and boost economic growth.
Opening the Doors: The inclusion grants India a 10% share in the index, following the 2020 relaxation of foreign ownership restrictions. Analysts predict an additional $30 billion inflow over the next ten months, potentially raising foreign ownership from 2% to 5%.
Market Reactions: The yield on Indian bonds has already decreased, reflecting rising prices. However, bureaucratic hurdles remain a challenge for some investors.
Positive Outlook: Despite recent political developments, India's economic outlook is strong. S&P Global is considering a credit rating upgrade, and India offers a good yield premium with strong growth and favorable inflation.
Future Potential: India's bond market is poised for further growth with potential inclusion in additional benchmarks like the Bloomberg EM Local Currency Government Index and FTSE Russell.
Managing Volatility: The Reserve Bank of India is confident in its ability to manage potential market volatility due to the country's substantial foreign reserves exceeding $650 billion.
Overall, this inclusion marks a watershed moment for India's financial market, attracting foreign capital, lowering borrowing costs, and propelling economic growth.
#RKFORGE is breaking out of consolidation#RKFORGE
Stock made a nice run since Jun’22 and gave 5x returns; has been in consolidation mode since then for about 290 days.
Breaking out now with crazy volumes not seen in 2024. Looks good for more upside.
Measured Target for this is about 34% which is also the length of the consolidation range.
NSE:GODFRYPHLP - 🚬 ➕🏪➕🍭 can it create a magicThis evergreen stock from the FMCG Sector listed in India is not just on the verge of a breakout after seven years but also building optionalities that can surprise us on the upside.
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✅ Weekly Closing close to 52-Week High
✅ Stock up close to 40% in the last couple of weeks
✅ Verge of the multi-year breakout
✅ FMCG sector
🤞~ Every green sector
🤞- Optionalities - Cloud kitchen (ready to eat)
🤞- Optionalities - Convenience store's growth
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❎Promoter's credibility
❎ Sin Stocks
❎ Not in explosive growth
BSE:GODFRYPHLP
NIFTY Major bullish break-out targeting 24650?The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) respected the former 6-month Channel Up last time we looked at it (April 30, see chart below), hit our 23100 Target and then broke the pattern:
What the latest technicals show is that the emergence of the Megaphone pattern on the 1D time-frame, resembles that of July - November 2023. That structure made a -7.00% that found Support on the 1D MA200 (similar to the current one) and then started a strong rally that broke above the Megaphone.
On the current fractal, Nifty is about to break above the Megaphone's Higher Highs trend-line and if it continues to replicated December 2023, then it should peak a little above the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. We will set a Target a little lower however, when it completes a +15.67% rise, i.e. at 24650.
On a side-note, if at any given moment, the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone, we will buy it. It has given the most optimal Buy Signal the past 3 months.
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NBCC Long Term Outlook.Picture Perfect Weekly and Monthly Closing. India on the cusps of Making History again as stable govt. is about to get re-elected for a third consecutive term. I am expecting a 4-5 times kind of return from the current date i.e. 01.06.2024. Time frame should be 3 Years. See you all in 2028.