Macro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In IndiaMacro Monday 47 – Major Trading Opportunities In India
10 Reasons why you need to pay special attention to India’s economy
Before I start there will be major market opportunities in India that will present over the coming 12 - 36 months in India. As an investor or trader, you cannot ignore this market.
1. India is on track to become the world's 3rd largest economy by 2027, surpassing Japan and Germany (currently India is 5th). This provides a major 3 - 5 year potential investment opportunity in Indian index funds and specific stocks in India.
2. India overtook China as the most populous nation in world in April 2024 (1.435b vs 1.425b).
3. Approximately 65% of India’s population is below the age of 35, and half are below the age of 25. In years to come this will represent a larger innovative workforce with the potential for higher productivity and increased consumer demand from this younger demographic.
4. India has the fastest GDP growth in the world. A minimum of 6% in GDP growth is expected over the next five years, separating it from both the broader emerging market cohort and from slower-growing developed markets. We noted on last weeks Macro Monday that Brazil’s GDP growth was expected to range between 2 – 2.9%, India’s GDP is expected grow at twice this rate.
5. In the shorter term India has a major domestic election concluding in June 2024. Between 1999 – 2019 India's Nifty 50 Stock Index historically tended to exhibit a positive trend six months preceding and following federal elections. A 20.5%+ increase prior to Election conclusion, 3%+ one month after election and 14.4% in the 6 months post-election. Election Season is great for the Indian Stock Market and we are right in the middle of it.
6. India has emerged as a global economic player striking deals with the US, Russian and China, having exceptional relations with all three. India actively participates in international forums and in shaping economic policies. Its presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse. This all translates into India showcasing that it is in growth mode, but more importantly, that it is economically stable, diverse and reliable.
7. According to Blackrock their emerging market ETF inflows into Indian indexes exceeded $4.4b in 2023 whilst total flows into all other EM countries ETF's combined to only $1.1b, clearly demonstrating a major influx of capital into India ahead of other EM's.
8. Indian equities earnings estimates are predicting a market with potentially prolonged and stable earnings growth. Analysts are expecting general Indian equities to post 13.8% earnings growth in the next 12 months and 14.4% in the next 18 months. Longer-term estimates call for 14.5% year-over-year earnings growth by year-end 2026. There is an incredible opportunity for TA chartist’s and investors to move into individual stock selection with the wind at their backs as the Indian Economy moves into what maybe its golden economic era.
9. Over the past two decades, India’s main stock benchmark, the Nifty 50, has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms, more than double the 6.8% offered by the majority of other global Indexes and this is expected to continue.
10. India has made remarkable progress in reducing extreme poverty. Between 2011 and 2019, the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved. This trend emulates what China achieved between 1990 and 2011 when they halved the amount of people living in extreme poverty in China. In the decade that followed China became the world’s second-largest economy, surpassing Japan. As mentioned in No.1 above, India is expected to become the 3rd largest economy in the word, overtaking Japan by 2027.
Now that we have a good understanding of this major positive macro-economic trend in India, let’s have a look at some general indices where some great opportunities are present.
Please note that India is firmly on my Radar now and more specific equities charts will be posted as I discover them.
Ishares MSCI India ETF - AMEX:INDA
The iShares India ETF is an exchange-traded fund that aims to track the performance of the MSCI India Index. This index includes large and mid-sized companies in India's equity market.
Here are the top 5 holdings of the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA) along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions:
1. Reliance Industries Ltd (8%): Reliance Industries is a conglomerate with interests in various sectors including petrochemicals, refining, oil and gas exploration, telecommunications, and retail. It is one of India's largest companies by market capitalization.
2. ICICI Bank Ltd (5.36%): ICICI Bank is one of the largest private sector banks in India offering a comprehensive range of banking products and financial services to individuals as well as corporate clients.
3. Infosys Ltd (4.41%): Infosys is a global IT consulting and services company that provides software development, maintenance, systems integration, outsourcing, and other technology-related services to clients across industries worldwide.
4. Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd (3.76%): HDFC is a leading provider of housing finance in India. The company offers various loan products and services to individual homebuyers as well as corporate clients engaged in real estate development.
5. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd (3.23%): TCS is another major IT consulting and services company from India that offers a wide range of digital transformation solutions to global businesses across industries such as banking & financial services, manufacturing, healthcare, retail, and more.
Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus. These could be good starting stocks for investors seeking to pick individual stocks in India as they have the backing of analysts in one of the largest funds in the world.
The Ishares India ETF Chart
SUBJECT CHART ABOVE
▫️ Price has broken to new highs and now bounced off the 21 week SMA.
▫️ A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00.
▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97.
▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1.
▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal.
▫️ Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up.A potential parallel channel break out with a target at c. $68.00.
▫️ Good risk reward on a potential trade at 4:1. Entry here at $52.97.
▫️ You could raise the stop to of approx. $50 and make it an RR 7:1.
▫️ The DSS Bressert appears to be crossing and about to move upwards but this is not a guarantee yet. This outcome would be ideal.
Price could revisit the breakout point at c. $50 - $51 which would be a more ideal entry but given the positivity in the Indian market, election season, the fact we are making new highs and are above the 21 SMA, coupled with a DSS Bressert cross looking likely, this is a very reasonable long term set up.
India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index - $NIFTY_MI
The India NIFTY Midcap Select Index is a stock market index that represents the performance of 25 mid-sized companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in India. Stocks are selected from the Nifty Midcap 150 index based on availability for trading in the Futures & Options segment, market cap and average daily turnover. Stock weights are based on free-float market capitalization.
Here are the top 5 holdings of the NIFTY Midcap Select Index along with percentage allocations and brief descriptions:
1. Indian Hotels Co. Ltd (7.1%): IHCL and its subsidiaries bring together a group of brands that offer a fusion of warm Indian hospitality and world-class service. These include Taj – the iconic brand for discerning travelers, SeleQtions, Vivanta, Ginger, and amã Stays & Trails.
2. Persistent Systems Ltd (5.69%): Persistent Systems is a global company specializing in digital engineering and enterprise modernization services. They offer solutions in banking, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, and technology sectors.
3. Cummins India Ltd (5.65%): Cummins designs, manufactures, sells, and services diesel and alternative fuel engines, generators, and related components. They are known for their innovation in power solutions and corporate responsibility.
4. Lupin Ltd (5.40%): Lupin is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company and one of the largest generic pharmaceutical companies by revenue globally. Their key focus areas include pediatrics, cardiovascular, anti-infectives, diabetology, asthma, and anti-tuberculosis.
5. Housing Development Finance Corporation Asset Management Company Ltd (5.21%): HDFC AMC operates as an investment management firm, offering portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies in India.
Please note that these holdings are subject to change over time based on market conditions or fund manager decisions, however this is on the 2024 prospectus.
The Chart
▫️ The India NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index chart is more promising than the Ishares MSCI India ETF.
▫️ There is a defined upward channel under which the 21 week SMA is providing support.
▫️We have broken recent highs, local resistance and a have a DSS Bressert Cross turning up. All three are bullish signals.
▫️A great risk reward set up is available here at 11:1. You can alter this to suit your risk tolerance or how long you want to remain in the trade. I would be inclined to lower the stop because the RR is weighted heavily to the upside.
▫️It is possible that we get a retest of the breakout area also, but given the DSS Bressert Cross and upwards momentum, I lean more directly bullish.
Indian Rupee (INR) Currency Risk
There is a currency risk with the second trade in the NIFTY Mid Cap Select Index as it is denominated in the Indian Rupee (INR) which has been on a long term decline against the USD since Aug 2011. If we were to move to the bottom of the current long term pennant we could lose c.5% in currency devaluation in this trade. This could happen over a couple of months, so its something to keep an eye on.
Here is the INR/USD Chart for reference:
Summary:
There is a unique opportunity to make significant returns from one of the largest and fastest growing countries in the world.
I listed 10 reasons why India's economy has major promise:
1. Projected to 3rd largest Economy by 2027
2. Largest Population in the world (since Apr 2024)
3. 50% of population are <25 years of age, 65%<35
4. Fastest GDP growth in the world at 6%
5. Election Season = 14 - 17% return historically
(within 8 months of current juncture in May 2024)
6. India's presidency of the G20 in 2023 showcased its economic prowess and diplomatic finesse.
7. Three times more capital flowing into India ETF's vs other emerging market ETF's
8. Analysts predict 14.5% YoY growth in Indian Equities.
9. Over the past two decades India's Nifty 50 has offered 15.0% annualized returns in USD terms
10. In India the share of the population living in extreme poverty was halved between 2011-2019
We then looked at two India Indexes that are looking very positive and have a great risk:reward trade set ups in the $NIFTY_MI and the $INDA. We also covered off some of the indexes individual holdings as these might be worth looking at.
Finally we created awareness of the currency risk that exists on the $NIFTY_MI chart. If we want to take advantage of this blooming economy in more specific and targeted ways, we will likely need to trade in the Indian Rupee XETR:INR at some stage. So we need to be familiar with the chart and the currency. We projected that it could decline by 5% against the dollar over a 6 - 12 month period so this should be factored in. This is not a prediction. It could show strenght against the dollar and break out of its downward pennant. Time will tell.
All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next few years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide to see how the South America market has performed. I hope its helpful.
PUKA
India
Binance Officially Registers With Indian Regulator for $260 BlnBinance, a leading cryptocurrency exchange, recently received official registration from India's Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) after a prolonged dispute with regulators. The FIU's approval marks the second time an offshore crypto exchange has been granted such a registration, the first being KuCoin. However, the news has been followed by a 2% decline in Binance's native cryptocurrency $BNB.
Binance was one of several global cryptocurrency exchanges that India's FIU had blocked for violating local anti-money laundering laws. As a result, the mobile applications of these exchanges were removed from Google's Play Store and Apple's App Store for Indian users. In the wake of these actions, Binance has been working to obtain official registration from the FIU to resume operations in India.
According to a report by the local news outlet Moneycontrol, Binance is now set to resume its operations in India, having acquired official registration with the FIU. The agency's director, Vivek Aggarwal, confirmed in a workshop conducted by the Bharat Web3 Association in New Delhi that KuCoin has already resumed operations after paying a penalty of INR 3.45 million ($41,303). However, Aggarwal stated that Binance is still in the process of determining its penalty and compliance proceedings.
India is the world's second-largest crypto market, having received $260 billion in cryptocurrencies between July 2022 and June 2023, according to a 2023 global report on crypto by Chainalysis. With its renewed approval and pending compliance procedures, Binance could soon reopen its doors to the country's significant crypto user base.
In summary, Binance has gained official registration with India's FIU, paving the way for the exchange to resume operations in the country. While the penalty and compliance procedures are still being determined, the news is a positive development for Binance and its expansion into the world's second-largest crypto market.
AAPL has IndoChina headwinds SHORTAAPL is here on a 120-minute chart in what appears to be a falling wedge pattern.
As volatility gets compressed further it could break down or break out with a bais for
the latter. I believe that the rise of generic phones in China and Inda with comparable
cameras and other functionality has impacted AAPL as had the rising prices of its
flagship products. Time will tell how this plays out. In the meanwhile, I will consider that
AAPL stays in its wedge and play the top trendline with a short and go long from the
bottom. At present , with price at the upper resistance trendline, I will add to my short
position. I see AAPL staying underneath the 0.5 Fib retracement level of the uptrend for
the time being.
NIFTY Wait for a 1D MA50 pull-back and buy.The Nifty 50 Index (NIFTY) has been trading within a Channel Up since late December 2023 and today it hit the April 10 2024 High. That was a Higher High for the Channel Up and the price immediately got rejected.
Based on the 1D RSI, it may rise some more to its Resistance Zone before getting rejected but this sequence is very similar with the February 02 2024 rejection. Both fractals made clear technical Higher Lows at the bottom of the Channel Up and the February one after the rejection, pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) before finding Support and new buyers.
As a result, we are only willing to turn bullish again on the 1D MA50 and then target the Channel's standard target of the 1.382 Fib extension at 23100.
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53000+ if we sustain above neckline!Banking stocks had been outperformers in 2023 but has been laggard until now in 2024! Things are about to turn around in coming week if we sustain above 48400 which is a "Neckline of an ascending triangle" formed on weekly charts of Bank Nifty. Indicators like RSI has already shown signs of a new rally by internal crossover last week. Target which will be activated would be 53000+ while stop loss at 47300.
CONSOLIDATION PHASE IN $SQR TOKENCurrently last to last week breakout was happened in GETTEX:SQR token which is project by Magicsquare.io and backed by Binancelabs.
Currently price rejected and below support line. I am expecting good upside once price break level of $0.61 next resistance will be 0.77$ above which 1.1$ is acting as strong resistance for the $SQR.
Why to buy?
Best time to buy any stock or cryptocurrency is as a early adopters of project or when price trade between consolidation zone. As who knows the next $BTC.
#MFSL Max Financial Services Ltd. looks good for more upside. #MFSL
Max Financial Services Ltd. looks good for more upside.
Reclaimed a very important S/R zone (orange); Currently at Golden fib zone.
Also, Insurance sector overall seems to be gaining momentum.
Expecting an upside of about 20-30% in coming weeks/ months.
CNXFINANCE, FINNIFTY Analysis For Feb 19th!Hello Traders,
Here is a Brief Overview About The Analysis of FINNIFTY For Feb 19th,
There Are Total of 2 Support Zones Which You Need To Look For And Same 3 Resistance Zones And To Be Mentioned One Grey Area And We Have 4 Imbalance Zones!
The Horizontal Lines From Volume To Volume And OI To OI Indicates The Market Range in Between For That Particular Day!
The Blue Arrow Path Showing The Direction of The FINNIFTY For Tomorrow.
Note : Those Levels Are Only For That Particular Day.
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Aegis logistics limited ( Aegis chemical)Aegis logistics looks good on a chart for a momentum upside swing trade
Risky traders may enter at current market price or below the price
And safe swing traders can enter above 411
Sl at 360
Tgt 428 446 490
Ask your financial advisor before buying only for educational purposes
Could India continue to drive returns for Emerging Markets?India shined as one of the best performing markets globally in 2023 despite high global inflation, rising interest rates, and unstable geopolitics. The Sensex and Nifty, two widely followed benchmarks for the Indian markets, grew 19.57% and 21.11% respectively in US Dollar (USD) terms1.
India’s economy displayed strong local retail demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rates and healthy foreign exchange reserves. India also enjoyed relatively healthy relations with most major economies of the world and cautiously navigated the geopolitical conflicts.
As we look ahead in 2024, we remain confident that India, driven by a host of macroeconomic factors, is a long-term story and one that could last for years if not decades to come. National elections are due to be held around May 2024. Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a historic third term and it is highly likely that the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will once again win with a full majority.
India benefits from Modi’s pro-business and pro-growth policies and a stable political environment further boosts prospects to realise rapid growth. We analysed the performance of BSE Sensex, one of the widely followed benchmarks of the Indian stock market, pre and post elections.
On average, the Indian markets displayed positive performance, delivering over 31% returns over the year leading up to elections, combined with the year after election results. This is despite the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 drawdown negatively impacting the performance leading to 2009 elections, and after the 2019 elections respectively. We expect this trend to continue with the likely return of the incumbent government.
Of course, should Modi lose, some of the recent gains might reverse. However, that seems highly unlikely, given the state of opposition, as multiple political parties, including some with completely unaligned agendas have joined hands to prevent a third Modi term. This was evident over the five recent elections in which the BJP won by huge majority in three of the largest states with a high proportion of the Lok Sabha (national election) constituencies.
Other important factors that investors might want to keep an eye on during the year:
1. Rate cuts – The Federal Reserve’s pace and timing on rate cuts will impact global markets and India is no different. The quicker and higher the cuts, the more the capital expected to be diverted towards equities, and with a strong momentum from the previous year, India might be one of the top picks in the Emerging Markets.
2. Crude oil prices – The Indian economy heavily depends on the import of crude oil. The higher the crude oil prices, the more the stress on India’s foreign current accounts. Drops in crude oil could help India’s economy grow faster and allow more room for spending on growth and infrastructure. India is simultaneously also working to reduce dependency on crude oil by diversifying into ethanol. Over the last few years, ethanol production has increased manifold and there is rising pressure to increase the usage of ethanol-blended fuel to power vehicles. This could potentially save the country much needed cash and help direct it to fuel economic growth and reduce fiscal deficits.
3. China decoupling – India has emerged as one of the most credible contenders to help diversify manufacturing out of China. For example, Apple established a considerable footprint and plans to scale up operations multi-fold; significant investments and subsidies were introduced to attract semiconductor companies from Taiwan; and there are also suggestions that Tesla is looking to enter India with a USD 2 billion investment into a manufacturing facility based in the state of Gujrat.
One of the most iconic policies of the current government over the last decade has been ‘Make in India’. The government will be pushing hard to attract more companies to set up manufacturing plants in India and leverage the success of ‘Make in India’ among voters.
4. Geopolitical instability – India has been relatively less impacted by geopolitical conflicts around the globe. India maintained its neutral stance and successfully managed to stand firm despite pressure from the west by importing discounted oil from Russia to ensure its energy security, while at the same time pitched itself as a closer ally to the US to counter the growing China threat.
5. Retail flows – In the recent years, India witnessed increasing participation of retail investors in the stock market. There are 80 million unique investors in the Indian stock markets that invest through the NSE.2 Moreover, the size of mutual fund AUM is around 24% currently compared to 11% a decade ago. The strong retail presence helps add stability to the Indian markets in events of global instability and Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows.
Conclusion
We strongly believe that India is a multi-decade story, and we are in very early stages of it. India has made tremendous progress in privatising corruption and debt-ridden state-owned companies, with disinvestments fetching USD 50 billion for the government over the last 10 years, out of which close to USD 40 billion was realised from sales of minority stakes, while close to USD 10 billion was realised from strategic transactions in 10 CPSEs – with the most notable being Air India3. This has helped in making companies more accountable to investors and more accessible via the stock market.
Sources
1 Source: WisdomTree, Bloomberg.
2 Source: According to recent comments from CEO of National Stock Exchange (NSE)
3 See: Disinvestment fetches over Rs 4.20 lakh cr in 10 years but target to be missed again in FY24, December 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Will PAYTM (One 97 comm., India) activate the target 1475 ?Daily chart, the stock should cross the Resistance line R1 (green) and trade above 810, to target the Resistance line R2 (at around 1050)
After clear crossing and closing 2 days above R2, the target will be 1475
Stop loss below 720 should be considered.
#TATACOMM - Nice basing formation right at support.
Looks amazing to me - Nice basing formation right at support.
I expect this to move to new ATH and beyond. Expecting minimum 10% returns on this.
SL will be a daily candle close below ₹1652/-
Also, if you apply Stochastic RSI, there is a clear bullish divergence forming on Daily.
YES BANK RANGE BREAKOUT FROM ALL TIME LOW LEVELI Suggested this stock on 12th Nov 2023 at 19 level
Entered at 19
Targets - 22,30,45,70+
18% Returns Given 🚀💰 Best Penny stock to invest now
Investment possible at CMP - 21.45 level if falls than average at 19 level
@Jagadheesh_JP
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RELIANCE POWER LONGTERM INVESTMENTACTIVATED MY ENTRY LEVEL
Can enter at CMP @31.40
or wait for fall & enter @25.30
Targets - 38,50,65+
Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only,
we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made.
Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement
HAPPY TRADING 👍
#TATAMOTORS - I see this as a 4 digit stock - ₹1000 coming!#TATAMOTORS has broken out of the resistance after about 8.4 Years and it has been consolidating just above resistance since last more than 130 days. I don't think that the rally is finished yet. It is easily a 4 digit stock i.e. ₹1000 per share.
Don't fade this rally.