Get started

India

Large Swing In Play For USDINR in 2020Here we are tracking the 2020 macro map for USDINR, a high yielding EM currency. The expansion in volatility here will come from CB coordination, and being short USDINR which generally would also support a view for better risk appetite means it acts a great portfolio hedge for those looking for high carry. On the INR side, macro figures are starting to indicate further upside although still stuck in low gears. The tax cuts from the fiscal side doing some of the heavy lifting thanks to Modi (India's version of Trump). Inflation is subdue with a lot more slack left in the labour market and a cheap commodity board. Should investors see the deficit handled appropriately then all boxes are checked for capital flows into India. Demand for INR looks set to improve and combined with the USD devaluation theme it makes a great few months for INR to see some appreciation. Risks to my thesis come from US-China protectionism, private capex not picking up (low odds after the attractive tax cuts) and to a lesser extent if RBI push the INR down by accumulating.
UShort
by ridethepig
India is on the verge of collapsingFUD & HOPES all mixed up, not just changing every week now. On a daily basis. Different sources even say opposite things. Trade war & HKG good or bad news on the same day. No direction it's all coinflip. India has a weaker rupee and a weak industrial output. So a catalyst to reverse. There is enough FUD to sell. Maybe US indices push it higher, I am long DJI. If DJI pullsback Nifty should too and I'll get money there. No call on the Nifty or India long term.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by MrRenev