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Excel India Growth Fund TSX:EGI-UNIs it time to invest in India ? Here's an example of Excel India fund (CAD denominated in Yellow) vs. the SENSEX (in Blue) vs INRCAD (in RED) and an average of SENSEX & CADINR (in Pink). Despite Indian Index moving up, the (seemingly temporary) strength in Canadian dollar is driving the price of EGI-UN (Excel India) down. On an average it has an upward bias which was only recently pulled down due to INR devaluation by RBI. Wait for (1) this retracement cycle to complete and (2) CAD to show some sign of weakness before entry. This should result in higher lows on the Pink line, that will be an Entry point.
E
by iamajeya
Banknifty 3 YR Long Term Consolidation Breakdown ShortHello This is an update from my BANKNIFTY Long call from 13700 and my BANKNIFTY short call which is at a breakeven point. The first scenario I had foreseen was a reversal at this lvl. The second was retrace to 17k and then back down. Now I notice a 3y long pattern of consolidation that has been in development ever since BANKNIFTY rallied from 8k to a 200%+ high of 20k. The banking index is looking weak as India continues to cut rates inorder to increase budget by decreasing payments on debt. In the short term I think that the second possibility of 17k and back down is possible as the price action has been extremely bullish from 13k ranges and shows indications of wanting to test the top of the consolidation triangle at around 16.7k. Best of luck
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by RahulAndra
Bank Nifty Oversold BankNifty has taken a near 20% hit since the beginning of this year due to bearish economic outlook as well as a massive burden of 7 lakh crore + NPA. The budget has been published and the government has pledged to recapitalize PSUs by a measly 25k crore for now. I believe that the banking sector is yet to see its real lows however for the time being a stabilization in sentiment and a retrace from the fear induced overselling should push banknifty closer to the 15.5k range before it makes its next leg down. There is also a possibility that it can break out of this downwards channel and test supply zone at 17k depending on sentiment in the coming months. Within 2 years I expect banknifty to reach lows well below 10k. First TP 14.8. Second TP 15.5. Third TP 17k. SL @ 12.6
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by RahulAndra
2
Nifty approaching the supply zone As we are approaching the upper line of down trend channel of nifty we need to be ready for big move from those levels, 1) Price can take resistance and reverse 2) Price can trade along the line and move side ways 3) price can move out of channel with force If we want to trade 1st and third possibility then wait for followup on next day. Never try to judge top or bottom just be ready to trade if price allows to do so :-) Trend is our friend
NSE:NIFTY
by dhananjay.d.joshi
4
Bank Of Baroda LongAs RBI is facing tremendous pressure to bail out PS/Corporate banks I believe that we will slowly begin to see a short term correction in the bank sector. I expected BOB to either break out and test supply zone at 190 before potentially making another leg up. The second scenario is that the bearish sentiment forces BOB to test demand zone at 100-120 before it continues to test the supply zone. This is big short term reversal point for BANKNIFTY. RR at this level is high.
NSE:BANKBARODALong
by RahulAndra
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ." There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary. The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure. Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off. Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence. The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend. However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
C
by CommoditiesTrader
An Analysis : Awaiting Breakout in HDFCBANKHDFCBANK is forming a perfect descending triangle pattern over last 3-4 months and desperately need a breakout from the pattern. Descending triangles can breakout any side so lets wait till the breakout happens and it became more valid with 3 touches on flatline. Keep HDFCBANK in your list to look out for shorterm and if it gives ample opportunity to enter after Breakout, Hop on and ride whichever side it breaksout. Check your risks also and plan well before taking positions. Hit Thumbs Up icon if you Like the Idea... Keep Sharing / commenting your views & suggestions below..
NSE:HDFCBANK
by InsiderB
7
Crude Technical OutlookCrude started the new year with volatility, as prices initially rebounded into price resistance near $38/bbl on geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, the rally was short-lived and there looks to be no follow through in today's session. There are a few key factors to take into account: slow global growth, a decline in global demand growth and a supported dollar. As posted here and here , near-term resistance is near $38/bbl which has been tested and failed twice in the last two days. Technical breadth still remains negative, and the lower have of the demand zone is the next area of support between $33-34/bbl. If the bottom of the range breaks, $27 is open for the taking. As mentioned in August : "On a market technician's viewpoint, if fundamentals do not shape up quick with support from consumption economies, like the U.S. and China, crude could break 2009's low of $33.20 per barrel. I also expect the dollar to continue to rise, increasing deflationary pressure throughout 2016. Price support is currently $42.02, just $2.22 per barrel less from where it is trading today. 2008's high of $147.27 per barrel creates a "V" shaped support and resistance price channel, which will likely hold prices. If prices break through this key support level, selling could amplify if there is no catalyst to bring prices back north. A "demand" zone - an area where confirmed buying took place - between $38.34 and $34.04 will be the last line of defense for crude prices. A close below this level, and a target of $27.14 per barrel is initiated." Take it back further to last February : "A bottom in crude will be formed when a series of indicators and data show confluence." "Growth has been lacking, and it is concerning that China – the largest consumer of oil – is showing real signs of trouble. GDP recently hit two decade lows, and the most recent import/export data is troubling. China saw a 3.3 percent decline in exports and a whopping 19.9 percent decline in imports YoY, the worst since 2009. It was was 16 percent lower than the general consensus. There is also disinflation. Whether it is in the US, Eurozone, or China, prices for commodities will remain low. Crude is no exception. A bottom in crude will not likely begin until fundamentals mingle with price action. Inventory builds of 5, 6, 10 million barrels per week will not help the case for higher prices, and oil companies could be forced to further slash rigs, jobs and CAPEX. And considering the deteriorating economic data, more so in the US, 2008’s low could be retested." If bulls could retake momentum, upside potential could reside at $42.75 and, potentially, $48.55. The situation remains dynamic as an unexpected production cut from a large producer could spark huge short-covering (unlikely to change long-term sentiment). Although, OPEC and Russia look to remain active, while production in the US is still near historical highs . Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
21
India Could Be the Most Resilient of the BRICSThe BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are highly watched emerging markets because they represented roughly 22 percent of global GDP in 2014. However, the global economic slowdown and increased geopolitical tension has weighed heavy on these markets. Although, India may be the most resilient economy out of the BRICS. India has felt its share of the slower economic climate, as the Markit manufacturing PMI fell to a seven-month low in September, falling to 51.2 from 52.3. According to Markit, there are signs of sustainable growth but input costs decreased for two months consecutively, which has not happen since the financial crisis. Both manufacturing and industrial output have remained stable. Services PMI has seen improvement since late 2014. In relation, the Chinese manufacturing PMI clocked in at 47.2 and has been contracting since March while near the worst levels since March 2009. Due to the slack in the economy and less than expected inflation, the Reserve Bank of India cut the benchmark rate by 50 bps to 6.75 percent. This strengthened the rupee has investors look for it to hinder capital outflow. It also comes as the People's Bank of China (PBoC) devalues the yuan. USDINR is likely to fall further as I expect the dollar to remain weak following the onslaught of poor economic data. Friday's non-farm payroll print of 146,000 was well below the 201,000 general consensus. To add insult to injury, August's jobs number was revised lower by 50,000 which left mouthpiece economists in bewilderment. The Fed's inability to act, in regards to an interest rate boost, will leave the dollar on shaky ground. Fed fund futures traders are not pricing in a potential for Fed action until June/July of 2016 - although, I am forecasting a recession by then. The USDINR is trending within a descending channel with support at 65.28, but the pair will travel to the 50 percent Fib. retracement at 65.15 (with the 72-daily EMA as further support). Secondary target is 64.83. Resistance can be found at 65.6060, 65.8337 and 66.1374 Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Nifty India - bearish outlookThe price is in Weekly/Daily ascending channel (green). Now, forming a falling wedge (bullish signal). The Fib C is at 61.8%, where price made bearish engulfing pattern to head south. D1 target is in line with 0% of AB swing and ascending price channel (8271), on break of this next target is D2 at 8040. However, I am expecting price to come at 8271 and then go north following the ascending channel (atleast retest 9120). Any break in channel would lead to re-analysis.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by jutkarsh
2
NIFTY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS _ INDIAFrankly, I could come up with a variety of counts for the market right now. About 4 counts say that the market has reached a top and we should be ready for a minor correction till July and then prepare ourselves for a bull market again. Analyzing the expanding ending diagonal proved to be tough. We could go up to the resistance zone indicated by the box and go down till minor wave 4 of wave 5 or make a new high till the extension of the top trendline of wave 5 and go down all the way. Final Conclusion: We will go up for a week(7-8 business days) and then head all the way down to 7750. Be prepared to take shorts when you see an opportunity.
NSE:NIFTY
by Elliottician
10