LONG LUPINLonger time frame. Decent risk reward ratio of 3x. LUPIN seems to be settling above 200DMA and the next resistance is at 1878. It should reach there in a month or so.
Indianmarket
NIFTY - A Big Crazy Bull is headed our way!
Compared to the previous year, 2016 has been a pretty good year for stock traders and investors as well. The year began on the backdrop of a huge correction of the Nifty in 2015 (-1600 points from the high) after a fantastic uptrend in 2014 (+ 2000 points YOY). The 1st two months of 2016 saw the markets reach new lows and a majority of stocks went on to touch multi-year lows. This fall gave a good opportunity to traders especially our Inspiron traders who spotted and shorted the best down trending stocks to bring in lots of profits while majority investors saw their portfolios being eroded day after day.
However come March and the Nifty suddenly reversed from a low of 6800 and there were no stocks left to short-sell as most of them had gone up sharply. Only a handful of stocks (less than 10) regained their uptrend and it looked as if this rebound was temporary. But the markets being true to its character continued to limp higher month on month although with a number of roadblocks along the way. By the end of May, we had more than 50 stocks that had regained their uptrend and 25+ stocks that reversed from downtrend to uptrend in NSE futures segment. That close to 50% stocks in the segment. What was equally surprising is that the stocks went up with minimal volatility and smoothness that had not been seen in a very long time. The volume buildup every time a stock touches a new high is increasing continuously. As on today (31st July) the Nifty comfortably sits as 8600 levels and looks in no mood to catch a breath.
So what does all of this indicate?
Well, before we arrive at a probability, lets crunch a few numbers
The Nifty went from 6100 in Feb 2014 to 8500 in Nov 2014, a rise of 2400 points in 10 months averaging a gain of 57 points every week.
This time the Nifty has gone from 7000 in March 2016 to 8600 in July 2016, a rise of 1600 points in 5 months averaging a gain of 72 points every week.
Current resistance level of the Nifty is @ 8888, what is also interesting is that in past the Nifty has closed above 8888 for less than 10 trading days in its entire lifetime. So crossing this level may be a hurdle but once that is achieved, there is reason to believe that there can be no looking back. We may well be riding the best bull run in a decade.
Even if the Nifty just continues this run rate then we could see the Nifty breaching 10,000 by December!
So it’s time to pull up your socks and get serious, you can’t afford to miss this Bull run! In the last decade if there was a time to be serious about your equity investments, this is that TIME. Take a look at your investment type, your capital and risk taking abilities and get in touch with a Mentor who can guide you.
Goodluck & Godspeed
Regards
Pashin Katpitia
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Long term bullish on Bharat ForgeBharat Forge seems to have traced an extended zigzag and is right at the bottom. It's likely that an upmove starts soon (without making a new low). This up move should take it to newer highs.
Bharat Forge possible Elliott countThis is in relation to my bullish outlook on this stock. (I've provided the link for original post below too.)
Arvind possible path aheadIt's possible that Arvind 0.99% has completed it's A-B-C correction and is on it's way to join the major trend. The above could be a possible path ahead. A fall till the 61% Fib level could be a great place to buy for the move up.
JET AIRWAYSHighly favourable trade. Found support 2nd time at 200DMA and inside bar indicates trend reversal for the stock. Falling crude prices also bolsters the view. It is a text book example of triangle formation and should breakout on the upside.
Short PNBEngulfing candle. Ripe for correction. Should find support at FIB 38% retracement level. Extremely favourable risk reward trade.
Short BIOCONBit late in publishing this idea. Call was given at 725 level and its already down to 704,but further downside expected upto 650 levels easily.
Engulfing candle has also appeared, which has reinforced the view. At 650, it will complete FIB retracement of 38%.
SHORT INFOSYSResults were bad and guidance is dismal.
Technically, Infosys is all set to test 200 WMA and may find support around 945 levels. There is good 10-12% immediate downside visible from here.
Fundamentally, Infosys is trading at 15-16 1 yr forward-looking multiple. Given guidance of 10-11%, it is surely going to get re-rated along with the whole of IT sector.
LONG BHELFlirting with 200DMA. If breached, no resistance in sight till 163 levels. Maintain stoploss at 135.
It has shown good breakout from resistance level of 135.
HINDALCO SHORTReversal of sorts at the higher end of the channel. It should correct upto 125. Extremely favourable risk reward trade. Stoploss at 138.5
Rural Electrification Corporation Limited1.) 50MA is crossing 100MA
2.) It has broken resistance at 173 convincingly
Looks all set to touch 198
Long TCSTHREE REASONS
- PIN UP BAR AT 200DMA
- CLOSE ABOVE 100 AND 200DMA NEXT DAY CONFIRMS REVERSAL
- STRONG SUPPORT AT THE LOWER RANGE OF THE TREND CHANNEL. (LT BULLISH TREND INTACT)
HIGH-RISK REWARD TRADE. MAINTAIN STOPLOSS AS IT RESULTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK
CIPLA LONGExtremely favourable risk reward trade. Stoploss at 503, just above 200 week moving average. Extremely important level for any stock. It has broken the resistance level of 500 and may soon breach 100 DMA.
First target is 540 and second target is 576.
This trade does derive comfort from the general breakout of pharma sector in India.
ONGC Set for BreakoutThree reasons ;-
1.) Close above 200 Day MA after a long time
2.) Breaking out of the triangle and a strong resistance line at 225.
3.) Break out above 211, strong resistance trend line.
NIFTY 50 Wave Analysis 20 JUN 2016As per my last post Nifty get Support from 8080 level and went upside but pattern not give view on further upside. I am going to review the wave count and come to the new support at 8035. If coming days Nifty fell to 8035 we can expect lot of buying on this level. The upside should be limited for this month as 8311 and trend will continue on next month also.
Wave Projections for next month - Nifty may surge upto 8420 and 8650 level as quick as possible.
Bank Nifty LONG 19KOn the daily chart, I notice a potential Harmonic ABCD pattern, it has taken support at 38.2 retracement with the extension at 2.818 in sight. Assumption is based on the current Bullish pattern. Important level to break on the up side will be at 18053. It this holds good, we can see it testing 19100 level as per the projection.
PS - I am learning harmonics and views are for learning purpose only.. Appreciate any constructive feedback.. Thanks!
NIFTY 50 WAVE ANALYSIS 11 JUN 2016As i mentioned in the last post of NIFTY analysis expecting correction, It happened but due to strength of the NIFTY we got IRREGULAR PATTERN. Still Nifty on corrective pattern for next half of the week.
EXACT time and date for NIFTY BUY entry - 15 JUN 2016 --- 09:24 - 10:30 . You can enter this date & time if price near to our support levels for next week 8087 - 8038.
BANK NIFTY WAVE ANALYSIS 1 jun 2016In medium term Bank nifty progressing wave b of (c). In that wave (C) wave iii is completed, Bank Nifty fell into the iv corrective wave today. Upto next week we can expect this correction.
Short ITC but only a retracementWhile I do believe in Nifty there has been a discontinuation of the downtrend there are possibilities of some retracements before we head up to break the swing highs. On ITC we can see that price tested above the trand channel 3 times before failing down and it has been in a range as shown in the box. There could be liquidation and the gap which is left could be cleared this week.
Nifty approaching the supply zone
As we are approaching the upper line of down trend channel of nifty we need to be ready for big move from those levels,
1) Price can take resistance and reverse
2) Price can trade along the line and move side ways
3) price can move out of channel with force
If we want to trade 1st and third possibility then wait for followup on next day.
Never try to judge top or bottom just be ready to trade if price allows to do so :-)
Trend is our friend
