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Indianrupee

The only level in play is 68.86=> After many requests from our followers in India we are posting an update to the USDINR map. => Here from a technical perspective we can see that there is a case to be made for the '5th wave' already being put in place... although we didn't quite reach the target for the minimum flow it came close enough. => This means the next big support level below is 68.86 which includes a confluence of major highs in 2013 and 2018. This is the 50% retrace of the final advance wave. => Rationally, the fact this level was so important on the way up and took many times to crack ...we know it will be equally important on the way down. A break below will increase confidence that a major top has been put in placed and afterwards there is very little in the ladder till 66.15. => Here actively looking to build positions to the downside and tracking 68.86 very closely. => Good luck to all those trading this one in live or looking to build positions ... or simply watching from the sideline
by ridethepig
2
Further EM pressure and INR will capitulate=> With oil creeping higher again we are maintaining a bearish view on India => There is no reason for INR to no longer remain offered as US yields push higher and attract foreign capital and global uncertainties rise. => The Indian government deficit has rising for half a year now and we are seeing a widening of corporate spreads with equities selling off. => This will be a very interesting one to track as we may see capitulation in other EM markets. => GL all
Long
by ridethepig
USD/INR - Evaporating Hope For Better Days - 4/30/2018 Rise in USD/INR is going to be the proportional to the rate of evaporation of the hope for better days in India. Well, the proposition itself was a pipedream but anyway let's focus on currency and not on crooks. I gave a talk in NJ,USA few years back on USD/INR, where the audience was comprised of some bankers from India and some politicians along with many people doing frequent repatriation of US Dollars into Indian Rupees . Basically bankers were there to lure NRI investors to invest in India and take advantage of better exchange rate ( It was the time when USD/INR shot up above 60 for the first time ). Their argument was that, it is just temporary and USD/INR will be back to 40/50 range quickly. Reason? Well, the only reason they had is that it just happens that way ! While my thoughts were that USD/INR is going only in one direction and that is up ! Because, the land of lawlessness still need to do lot better to attract good stable long-term investment from foreigners. Luckily Indian Rupee has weathered few years in good condition than its other Asian peers. But sooner or later the reality will catch up. Imminent potential problems may arise from next year election and from Fed rate rising. Still the Trade is: Buy USD, sell INR
ULong
by BombayBulls
NIFTY50 at a very Decisive AreaHello Traders, I wish you all a happy Sunday and I hope you are enjoying the weekend so far Today, we will have a look at the Nifty Index from India and the USDINR. First of all let me explain to you why I use the Indian currency rupee to forecast the possible move in the Nifty. That is a so called intermarket relation. First of all, we need to understand that Intermarket analysis is simply the relationship between the 4 major asset classes: • Currencies: Currency trends define the direction of capital market flows in their currency areas. • Bonds: Bond trends define the direction of interest rates. • Commodities: Commodity trends can give us a clue about the current inflation trends. • Equities: The development of the stock market is a leading indicator of economic development. Which measures the health of an economy. So in this analysis, we are looking at the currency market (USDINR) vs the Equity market (NIFTY50). In the chart above you can see the correlations coefficient on the bottom of the chart. We can clearly identify that the currency market (USDINR) has an inverse correlation to its respective equity market (NIFTY). To make long story short. When the Indian currency USDINR goes lower the Nifty index goes higher and vice versa. (Blue arrows USDINR goes lower where at the same time the NIFTY goes higher) that is a ideal correlation. Obviously, we need to understand that the correlation between USDINR and NIFTY is not 100%. Which basically means, that there are times where correlation divergence happens. A correlations divergence is when both markets run inline to each other, which means when the USDINR goes up the NIFTY also goes up or remains sideways. That is a correlations divergence. I marked it in the charts (yellow areas) both markets move in the same direction. You can also see in the correlations coefficient indicator, the peaks. This correlation divergence occurred the last time in late January 2018. What does that mean you may ask now? Well, the natural correlation is inverse to each other, which means that at some point the correlation divergence will get back to its mean. Which means after a correlations divergence it will inline again with its natural negative correlation. As we had several times in the past. Have a look at the peaks in the indicator followed by reversion to its mean in the past. I am also expecting in the next couple of weeks to get back to its natural correlations. Technical Analysis: Now, let’s have a look at the technicals. You can see in the first chart the USDINR, confirming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. You can see how nicely it broke the neckline and rallied very impulse to the upside. The target remains at around 67.34 which is the projected 100% extension from the head of the pattern. Due to the correlations divergence, where the USDINR rallied and the nifty also rallied, I am looking now at a reversion of the correlation. That means that when USDINR goes to the target of the pattern at around 67.34 the NIFTY Index should turn lower from the 50% retracement at around 10609 for a pullback at least. As NIFTY is at a very decisive area where a pullback can happen. That nicely coincides with the correlations divergence going to its mean. In other words. When USDINR rally in the early next week NIFTY should turn lower from its important technical level. Let's see how it plays out. I hope you enjoyed this analysis. Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view
NSE:NIFTYShort
by TradeFxTrends
10
EURINR Elliottwave: Looking for break of monthly trendlineTalking Points: Technical Strategy: Bearish Elliottwave Count: Either wave (C) continuation or B wave of (B). HTG Note: Larger outlook on weekly chart is showing weakness on long and short term. EURO vs Indian Rupee price is testing weekly trend line. Last time this line was tested on September, 2015 and post that we seen nice pullback towards 77.80 levels. We in HTG consider that was correction and marking as a wave (B). From 77.80, we were seen bear continuation and currently price is testing same weekly trenline. Break of this weekly trendline will be very bearish outlook for Euro. On alternate, if price is start trading higher, we are expecting to see price can go and above 82 levels before it's turn bearish again. Lower time frame, we are seen reaction near trend line support, however current price is trading in just correction and testing horizontal resistance on 70.15. We are expecting this zigzag correction should be over. To confirm, bear trend is back in force, we need to have channel breakout here @ 70 area. Post this breakout, we are able to mark correction over and can trade for lower target below 68 Action We initiated short position @ 1.77 with limited stoploss
Short
by Hoag
Modi-nomics Trumps Everything - Part 2 ( of 2 )See Part 1 in link A Case For Recession You don't use sword when knife is needed. Being a good trader, you need to have a touch of cynicism. Don't take anything at the face value. Rather than being dragged emotionally, you need to understand the things with realistic perspective. While it is true that many millions have been wiped out of the pockets of the rich but still they are rich and powerful enough ! It is not a mass revolution where people gonna go crazy lynching the corrupt. If more rigorous steps are not being taken then they just simply have to do some psychiatric consulting for sudden shock and then get back to business of rebuilding the wealth again - read as - start taking the bribes by being innovative ;) Of course, 1 % of India has a lot to lose but if you take out 90 crore from someone worth 100 crore, he/she still has 10 crore left and that is still much more than other 99% 's 2.5 lacks. Besides, that person is still eligible to hog all those juicy government contracts and do all sort of fancy things which other middle class and poor people can't. They belong to the employer class and they can simple shut the shutter of the business and live off the wealth stashed in other countries, while what's going to happen to the people who has nothing else but that monthly paying 'job'. If this step is just a political stunt then India is going to suffer a lot. Economy will come to a thudding stop and rupee can devalue to unimaginable levels. This step looks pretty premature without supporting infrastructure. To see which way the pendulum is leaning, we have to wait for couple of months. Then only we can make sound investing decisions. Right now, approach should be just wait and watch and keep the shopping list ready with good stocks of the companies which are more likely to survive and prosper in next 20/30 years to buy at good levels when the market start catering. And if it start going higher based on upbeat emotional attitude then it's time to be cautious and start shorting it selectively via puts. Banking, IT, Infra and auto sector is untouchable until they go down the drain. FMCG and Industrials should be accumulated from good levels when we start getting them cheap, looking forward to next 10/15 years. Time for just living on interest income ( because interest rates will be slashed in this scenario too) and real-estate flipping is dead at least for next 10 years. We are living in very volatile times. Demagogues and dividers are ruling the roost. Macro investing is almost dead because nobody will be able to predict anything beyond 10 days. So it's traders time ! Stay nimble and play technical. Because it works ! ( Check out the Link )
NSE:NIFTYShort
by BombayBulls
Modi-nomics Trumps Everything - Part 1 ( of 2 )Having enough fun yet?! ;) It's been exciting roller coaster ride so far. We are not gonna dabble into the politics of everything but we will try to understand the things strictly with respect to the market's standpoint. It is too early to predict the consequences of the two great surprises, 1.) Donald Trump wining the US presidential election and 2.) Sudden ban on Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes by Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ). But we can draw the boundaries and figure out the extremes based on current conditions and then put up some guiding check posts to gauge where the pendulum is shifting - from extreme recession to great economic resurrection. A Case For Better Future Let's wean everybody off the pipedream first. We don't totally believe this is going to happen in India. Why? well, you know the answer but if you still insist it being spelled out then here it is. Country of corrupt and crook is not going to change in a day or two or even in next 100 years. Things which haven't changed from past thousands of years can't be cleaned in seconds. It is not about the system but it is all about psyche. If people change then everything changes. But to ask for, or dream about people to change, is too much wishful thinking in our humble opinion. Even though we are not optimistic about the changes, we will be first to cheer and be happy to be proven wrong :) Market Effect In this scenario, Indian Rupee with strengthen and market will be all rosy touching new highs. Gold will go down because there is less ( let's not eradicate it completely ;) ) corruption and black money circulation to end up inflating gold and real-estate prices. Interest rates will come sharply down because there is not much inflation. Land of lawlessness will be considered as the land of stability and more opportunity for hardworking, intelligent people. It will restore the trust of global investors and will help bring in more money. This hypothesis will be checked very quickly If we can sell more Rupee denominated bonds in open market. But again, it is not the most likely scenario and there is no point in wasting time in day dreaming. ....Continue... Part 2...
NSE:NIFTYShort
by BombayBulls