INDIAVIX
Nifty Side-ways for few daysEarly indication!
Nifty is likely to go sideways from here for few days.
It is yet to create proper support at these level.
Be careful with strangles and straddles, as India Vix is increasing too. You might see premiums increasing in monthly or next month series. Lets hope for a linear theta decay.
Happy Trading.
Nifty 50 Analysis based on price actionAnalysis based on price action to figure out how price reacts along with option chain, multiple pattern formation, tried to test Elliot wave too, retracement levels marked as per fib retrace, day low considered as strong support along with 2 resistance level as per Fibonacci. Candle stick analysis. Also used volatility index to figure out the movement of the market and levels it would break. Volume played special role today in breaking the support zone. Price stayed range bound until 1300 hours and then a sharp fall was seen. Expecting a Gap up on Monday with atleast 70 to 80 point and then another reversal.
India Vix About to Break Out but needs cooling off for nowAs you can see the Volatility Index of Nifty has leaped and on the verge of shooting through the roof. Therein lies the relief. If you look at Relative Strength Index of the Volatility Index, it has entered the zone from where it generally reverses. Reversing volatility might provide a relief rally or stability to the Index and we might see some buying from various kinds of investors.
Good budget or a budget without any negative news can play a positive role in Indices making a comeback or infusing stability. On many counts the index looks oversold and later on Monday / Tuesday or in that range we might see a rally.
This rally can be short lived as it will face resistance near 17950/18050 range but if that zone is overcome and if Budget has some very positive news for the investors we might see a sharp rally till 18400 or 18800 range.
In case of lackluster budget by Government of India the downside that we might be looking in Nifty can range between another 3 to 7%.
The index within Nifty that looks on the verge of Break Out is Auto Index. It is looking really strong. Tech companies can make a comeback because they have been beaten down the most and they may reflect the light from positivity of NASDAQ.
INDIAVIX EDUCATIONAL(1)What is India VIX or India Volatile Index?
-India VIX or India Volatility Index is a volatile index that is calculated by the NSE to measure the market’s anticipation for volatility and fluctuations in the near term.
-A lower VIX signifies low volatility and a stable range for the asset price.
-A higher VIX implies high volatility and a lack of confidence among investors to trade in the current market range. Usually, it is an indication of a significant directional movement in the market marked with the broadening of the current range.
-So, if the value of the India VIX index shows a rise, then the expectation of traders should be a high level of volatility. This translates to a considerable shift in the NIFTY index. If the value is low, this indicates a lower expectation of volatility, and that means hardly any change in the NIFTY index itself.
(2) What is Volatility?
-Volatility refers to periods of unpredictability when security prices go through rapid fluctuations. Often people associate volatility with price falls. But it can also happen in an uptrend.
(3) What is the reason behind this surge in INDIAVIX?
- The volatility is caused by Covid-related concerns as coronavirus cases have risen in foreign nations like China and the US and its consequent impact on India.
If we see on the basis of technical it's reacting from the zone which was held perfectly multiple times in past.
India VIXWith FOMC outcome due tonight, volatility is increasing sharply (pre-event uncertainty)
We are in the dark as to what FED will do tonight - so many possibilities, add to that statement - hawkish or dovish
25 bps market will rally
50 bps appears discounted
75 bps market will panic
Hence better to stay light
Above 21.75 the crucial resistance is at 2.80 if that breaches then be prepared for extreme moves (we have just seen the trailer in that case) all the way till 28
This would be mean large intra-day candles & gap openings. Avoid writing PE during such time unless well hedged. Also reduce derivative exposure its not worth it during such times.
Post event wait for VIX to start cooling down, trend direction will become clear by then
Vix Monthly Range - Current Weekly Range - 6 3 22Hi
Have drawn lines for the range of Nifty as per Vix
Monthly Range
18169 (Probable High) - 16793 (Monthly Close) - 15418 (Probable Low) - this remains constant for the entire month...untill its broken..then next range will be posted.
Previous Weekly Range
17275 (Probable High) - 16658 (Weekly Close) - 16041 (Probable Low)
Last week High Made - 16815
Last week Low Made - 16133
Current Week
16874 (Probable High) - 16245 (weekly Close) - 15616 (Probable Low)
Probablities :
Expecting market to touch last weeks....probable low (16041) this week...and then rise to 16245 and above that 16658 and above that it might stop near...16793 - monthly close.
If emotions are running high, then high probablity it may touch 16874 also.
Lets see how this unfolds in coming days