BRIEFING Week #24 : is Stagflation Coming next ?Here's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Indicators
TSLA SellOff ! Elon Musk vs Donald Trump ! Beginning of the End?If you haven`t bought the dip on TSLA:
Now you need to know that TSLA Tesla experienced a significant drop of 14% today, marking its worst single-day performance in over four years. This decline erased approximately $150 billion in market capitalization, bringing the stock down to $284.70.
The immediate cause of this downturn is the escalating feud between CEO Elon Musk and President Donald Trump. Musk's public criticism of Trump's tax legislation, labeling it a "repugnant abomination," prompted Trump to threaten the revocation of government contracts with Musk's companies. This political clash has introduced significant uncertainty regarding Tesla's future government support.
Beyond the political arena, Tesla's core business metrics are showing signs of strain. The company reported a 9% decline in quarterly revenues and a staggering 71% drop in profits. Additionally, Tesla has lost its leadership position in the electric vehicle market to China's BYD, indicating increased competitive pressure.
cincodias.elpais.com
Investor sentiment is also waning. A Morgan Stanley survey revealed that 85% of investors believe Musk's political activities are negatively impacting Tesla's business fundamentals. This perception is further exacerbated by declining sales in key markets, such as a 17% drop in Model Y registrations in California.
thestreet.com
Elon Musk and Donald Trump have publicly clashed, escalating a feud that has unraveled their once-close relationship. The dispute centers on several issues:
Republican Tax and Immigration Bill: Musk criticized a sweeping Republican domestic policy bill backed by Trump, calling it a "disgusting abomination" on X. Trump claimed Musk initially had no issue with the bill, accusing him of being upset over the removal of an electric vehicle tax credit.
Epstein Files Allegation: Musk alleged Trump's name appears in classified Jeffrey Epstein files, escalating tensions. Trump has not directly addressed this claim but responded by threatening to cut government contracts with Musk's companies.
Personal and Financial Accusations: Musk argued Trump would have lost the 2024 election without his financial support, accusing him of ingratitude. Trump countered, saying he was "disappointed" in Musk, claiming he asked Musk to leave the administration and accused him of "Trump Derangement Syndrome."
Government Contracts and Tariffs: Trump threatened to cancel "billions and billions" in government contracts with Musk's companies, like SpaceX, amid the feud. Separately, Musk reportedly made personal appeals to Trump on auto tariffs, which Trump noted might involve a conflict of interest.
Cabinet Clash: Reports indicate Musk clashed with Trump’s cabinet, including Marco Rubio, over spending cuts related to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), with some describing Musk's behavior as disruptive.
Given these challenges, a price target of $215 for TSLA appears justified. The combination of political entanglements, deteriorating financial performance, and eroding investor confidence suggests that Tesla's stock may face continued downward pressure in the near term.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
MRK Merck On the Verge of a Breakout? Unusual Calls !!Merck (MRK) is setting up for what could be a high-probability breakout. The stock has been in a falling wedge pattern for several months — a classic technical formation that often precedes sharp upside moves. Price action has now compressed to the end of the wedge, and we may be on the brink of a bullish resolution.
🔍 Technical Setup
Falling Wedge Pattern nearing completion
Price currently hovering near long-term support ($78.25)
Strong bullish divergence forming on momentum indicators (RSI/MACD)
The falling wedge is typically a reversal pattern, and given how deep MRK has pulled back from its highs ($134+), the risk/reward here looks compelling.
🔥 Options Flow
Today’s options market added fuel to the fire:
48,000 call contracts traded expiring this Friday
This sudden surge in short-dated call buying signals aggressive positioning for an imminent move
This kind of volume is not retail-driven — it points to potential institutional interest
💡 The Bullish Case
With the technical breakout structure in place and strong confirmation from options flow, the case for a bullish reversal is growing. If MRK can close above wedge resistance with volume, it opens the door to a quick move toward $85+, possibly even higher in the coming weeks.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
FCEL FuelCell Energy Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of FCEL FuelCell Energy prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-7-3,
for a premium of approximately $1.10.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PL Planet Labs PBC Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PL Planet Labs PBC prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 4usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.37.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
RBRK Rubrik Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of RBRK Rubrik prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 90usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $5.60.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
This Trendline Refuses To Be OverlookedTrading Fam,
While it is somewhat unclear what Bitcoin's next move will be (though I tend to lean towards more upside bias), one thing has become clear ...that aqua blue trendline I have drawn on our chart is proving its significance. Currently, it holds as support. A break to the downside though, and I expect us to drop all the way to 96k. If it continues to hold, a break above our recent high should be expected and new highs will be formed in a relatively quick timeframe.
Stew
Volume Speaks Louder: My Custom Volume Indicator for Futures
My Indicator Philosophy: Think Complex, Model Simple
In my first “Modeling 101” class as an undergrad, I learned a mantra that’s stuck with me ever since: “Think complex, but model simple.” In other words, you can imagine all the complexities of a system, but your actual model doesn’t have to be a giant non-convex, nonlinear neural network or LLM—sometimes a straightforward, rule-based approach is all you need.
With that principle in mind, and given my passion for trading, I set out to invent an indicator that was both unique and useful. I knew countless indicators already existed, each reflecting its creator’s priorities—but none captured my goal: seeing what traders themselves are thinking in real time . After all, news is one driver of the market, but you can’t control or predict news. What you can observe is how traders react—especially intraday—so I wanted a simple way to gauge that reaction.
Why intraday volume ? Most retail traders (myself included) focus on shorter timeframes. When they decide to jump into a trade, they’re thinking within the boundaries of a single trading day. They rarely carry yesterday’s logic into today—everything “resets” overnight. If I wanted to see what intraday traders were thinking, I needed something that also resets daily. Price alone didn’t do it, because price continuously moves and never truly “starts over” each morning. Volume, however, does reset at the close. And volume behaves like buying/selling pressure—except that raw volume numbers are always positive, so they don’t tell you who is winning: buyers or sellers?
To turn volume into a “signed” metric, I simply use the candle’s color as a sign function. In Pine Script, that looks like:
isGreenBar = close >= open
isRedBar = close < open
if (not na(priceAtStartHour))
summedVolume += isGreenBar ? volume : -volume
This way, green candles add volume and red candles subtract volume, giving me positive values when buying pressure dominates and negative values when selling pressure dominates. By summing those signed volumes throughout the day, I get a single metric—let’s call it SummedVolume—that truly reflects intraday sentiment.
Because I focus on futures markets (which have a session close at 18:00 ET), SummedVolume needs to reset exactly at session close. In Pine, that reset is as simple as:
if (isStartOfSession())
priceAtStartHour := close
summedVolume := 0.0
Once that bar (6 PM ET) appears, everything zeroes out and a fresh count begins.
SummedVolume isn’t just descriptive—it generates actionable signals. When SummedVolume rises above a user-defined Long Threshold, that suggests intraday buying pressure is strong enough to consider a long entry. Conversely, when SummedVolume falls below a Short Threshold, that points to below-the-surface selling pressure, flagging a potential short. You can fine-tune those thresholds however you like, but the core idea remains:
• Positive SummedVolume ⇒ net buying pressure (bullish)
• Negative SummedVolume ⇒ net selling pressure (bearish)
Why do I think it works: Retail/intraday traders think in discrete days. They reset their mindset at the close. Volume naturally resets at session close, so by signing volume with candle color, I capture whether intraday participants are predominantly buying or selling—right now.
Once again: “Think complex, model simple.” My Daily Volume Delta (DVD) indicator may look deceptively simple, but five years of backtesting have proven its edge. It’s a standalone gauge of intraday sentiment, and it can easily be combined with other signals—moving averages, volatility bands, whatever you like—to amplify your strategy. So if you want a fresh lens on intraday momentum, give SummedVolume a try.
AVGO Broadcom Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought AVGO before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AVGO Broadcom prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-13,
for a premium of approximately $14.75.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
BRIEFING Week #22 : Still waiting for OilHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
MOONPIG Is Taking Off — Thanks to James Wynn’s Viral CloutThe James Wynn Phenomenon:
James Wynn, a crypto trader who turned $4 million into $100 million before losing nearly all of it in leveraged Bitcoin futures, has become a polarizing figure in the crypto space. His massive trades, including a $1.2 billion Bitcoin long position that ended in a $17.5 million loss and a subsequent $1 billion short position with 40x leverage, have made him a viral sensation. Despite these setbacks, Wynn’s resilience and bold moves keep him in the spotlight, with thousands of traders and investors following his every step.
Wynn’s fame stems not just from his trading but from his ability to move markets. His posts on X, where he boasts a significant following, often trigger rapid price movements in the assets he mentions. This influence is now centered on $MOONPIG, a Solana-based meme coin that’s gaining traction thanks to his vocal support.
$MOONPIG: A Meme Coin with Momentum:
$MOONPIG, a meme coin built on the Solana blockchain, has seen its price surge by as much as 80% following Wynn’s endorsements, though it’s also faced volatility with a 30% drop in 24 hours and a 60% decline from its all-time high. Despite these fluctuations, the coin’s community-driven narrative and Wynn’s backing make it a compelling speculative play.
Wynn’s posts on X reveal his belief in $MOONPIG’s potential to be the “next SafeMoon” of this cycle, predicting a run to a billion-dollar market cap. He’s emphasized its appeal to retail investors, calling it “normie-friendly” and highlighting its strong community as a key driver. This narrative aligns with the meme coin mania that often propels tokens like CRYPTOCAP:DOGE or CRYPTOCAP:SHIB to explosive gains during bullish market phases.
Why I’m Bullish:
Wynn’s Influence as a Catalyst: Wynn’s fame amplifies $MOONPIG’s visibility. His posts on X, such as one claiming he transferred profits to the $MOONPIG reserves wallet, signal commitment and attract attention. When Wynn speaks, traders listen, and his endorsements have already driven significant price action, with one instance sparking an 80% surge.
Community Strength: Wynn has emphasized $MOONPIG’s community-driven ethos, stating it “doesn’t need KOLs or BS” and thrives on organic support. In the meme coin space, strong communities can sustain momentum, as seen with tokens like CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , which Wynn also supports.
Market Timing: With Bitcoin hitting new highs and retail interest flooding back into crypto, $MOONPIG is well-positioned to ride the wave. Wynn’s thesis that retail investors will soon pour into altcoins aligns with current market sentiment, making $MOONPIG a potential beneficiary.
Speculative Upside: Meme coins thrive on hype, and $MOONPIG’s low market cap relative to its potential—analysts like @KookCapitalLLC
speculate a $1 billion valuation—offers significant upside for early investors. Even after recent pullbacks, the coin’s volatility suggests opportunities for traders who can stomach the risk.
GameStop (GME) Is the New MSTR — And It Might Moon Harder ! If you haven`t bought the dip on GME:
Now You need to know that GameStop (GME) is the new MSTR MicroStrategy — But With Meme Power!
GME GameStop just made its boldest move yet: the company revealed it has purchased 4,710 Bitcoin, officially entering the crypto game in a serious way. While it hasn’t disclosed the total price paid, the intent is loud and clear — GameStop is transforming into a Bitcoin-holding company, just like MicroStrategy (MSTR) did back in 2020.
This isn’t just about hype. In March, GameStop raised $1.3 billion through a convertible note offering, specifically to help fund Bitcoin purchases. It also updated its investment policy to formally add Bitcoin as a reserve asset — the same exact strategy that led to MicroStrategy’s 10x stock explosion.
But here’s the twist: GameStop brings more than just Bitcoin exposure — it brings meme momentum. Unlike MicroStrategy, which had to win over the market, GME already has an army of loyal retail traders, massive online visibility, and a cultural legacy as the original meme stock. If MicroStrategy was the corporate face of Bitcoin adoption, GameStop is the internet’s version — louder, faster, and potentially more explosive.
Yes, the stock dipped on the announcement — typical for big moves like this — but long-term, the upside is undeniable. Bitcoin on the balance sheet gives GME new life, and volatility is GameStop’s comfort zone. With Bitcoin becoming a political and financial flashpoint — highlighted by major figures like JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr. attending the 2025 Bitcoin conference — GME’s move couldn’t be more timely.
This is more than a pivot. It’s a power play. GameStop is no longer just a nostalgia-fueled retailer — it’s a digital asset powerhouse in the making.
If you missed MicroStrategy’s rise, GameStop might just be your second chance — with even more firepower behind it.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
U Unity Potential Buyout Soon?!If you missed my previous signal on U (Unity):
Now Unity Technologies (NYSE: U) just caught fire — surging 12.5% in a single day — on a massive uptick in volume that should have every sharp trader watching closely. With $39.1M in volume against a daily average of 9.4M shares, something is clearly brewing beneath the surface.
But this isn’t just about technicals — the options market is lighting up with unusual activity, and there’s fundamental buyout potential that’s getting harder to ignore.
🔍 Options Traders Are Making Bold Bets
Yesterday: Traders loaded up on January 16 $37 strike calls — deep out-of-the-money, high-risk, high-reward plays.
Today: A massive $3.5 million bet was placed on the $30 strike calls, also expiring January 16.
These aren’t casual bets. This is smart money positioning for a potential takeover or major catalyst, and the timeline is clear: January 2025.
📈 Why a Buyout Could Be Back on the Table
Let’s rewind. On August 9, 2022, AppLovin (APP) made an unsolicited offer to acquire Unity in an all-stock deal worth $17.5B, valuing Unity shares at $58.85 — an 18% premium at the time. Unity rejected the deal.
Fast forward to today:
AppLovin's market cap has exploded — now sitting at a jaw-dropping $127B, up 3,800% since late 2022.
Unity, meanwhile, is a shadow of its former self, trading far below its ATH of $201.12 (November 2021), with ongoing struggles in monetization and competition.
But this disparity creates a prime M&A setup:
AppLovin now has the firepower and strategic incentive to revisit the acquisition — with Unity’s depressed valuation, it’s arguably a bargain.
The AI + gaming narrative is red hot. Combining Unity’s engine with AppLovin’s ad and monetization capabilities could be the synergy Wall Street loves.
🎯 The Trade Setup
Unity just broke out with conviction on high volume — this could be the first leg of a larger move.
Options flow suggests bullish sentiment into early 2025.
A renewed takeover offer could easily push the stock back toward the $50–60 zone, if not higher.
🧠 Final Thoughts
Unity is no stranger to volatility, but when volume spikes, options explode, and a cash-rich suitor like AppLovin is thriving, traders should sit up and pay attention.
We may be watching the early stages of a buyout story 2.0 unfold — and Wall Street might be starting to price it in.
📌 Watch Unity (U) closely in the coming weeks. The market may be whispering — or shouting — "Takeover incoming."
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action📊 Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action
🕒 Timeframe: 4H (Based on candlestick structure)
📅 Published: May 27, 2025
💰 Current Price: 3,303.860
🔴 Major Resistance Zone
📍 3,480 – 3,500
📌 Seen with red arrows and price rejections.
📉 Strong selling pressure has occurred twice from this level (double top-like behavior).
❗ Until price breaks above this, bulls face a major hurdle.
🟣 Key Mid-Level Zone (S/R Flip)
📍 3,340 – 3,360
🔄 This area has flipped between support and resistance.
🔸 Price tested this level recently and pulled back (orange circle), suggesting sellers are active.
🔮 This is the pivot zone – watch for break/rejection to determine next trend leg.
🟪 Main Support Zone
📍 3,180 – 3,220
✅ Multiple bounce reactions visible (green arrows and circles).
💪 This zone has held strong; indicates solid buyer interest.
📉 If price returns here and breaks below, we could see further downside to 3,120 or lower.
🧭 Market Structure Summary
🔁 The market is in a range-bound structure between 3,220 – 3,360, with spikes towards 3,480.
🔃 The recent higher low followed by rejection at mid-resistance suggests potential distribution.
🧠 Forecast Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario (Blue Path)
Break above 3,360 → Retest as support → 📈 Potential rally to 3,480
📍 Target: 3,480+
🟢 Confirmation: Strong bullish engulfing candle + volume surge
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Blue-Arrow + Orange Circle)
Rejection at current resistance → Drop toward 3,220
📍 Target: Main Support zone
❗ Watch for bearish candle pattern confirmation at 3,340
⚖️ Trading Strategy Tips
🔍 Wait for confirmation at the mid-resistance before entering.
🛡️ Place stops below support zones for long positions.
💥 Aggressive short sellers may look to enter near 3,340 with tight stops above.
🧩 Conclusion
The asset is in a critical decision zone. Whether it breaks higher toward the resistance or retraces to support will shape the next directional move. Traders should remain cautious, and let price action confirm bias before committing.
BTC/USD Rebound in Play! | Key Support Holding, Eyes on $112K📊 BTC/USD Technical Analysis
🗓️ Chart Date: May 25, 2025
🔍 Key Levels:
🔵 Support Zone: $106,800 – $107,300
Notably, price bounced twice in this region, indicating strong buying interest.
This area aligns closely with the 200 EMA (currently at $107,213.51), adding further confluence as dynamic support.
🔴 Resistance Zone: $111,800 – $112,300
Previous highs and consolidation make this a significant area where sellers may re-enter the market.
📈 Indicators:
🔵 EMA 200 (Blue): $107,213.51
Acts as a strong dynamic support; price bounced off it recently.
🔴 EMA 50 (Red): $108,182.91
Price is currently below the 50 EMA, suggesting short-term bearish pressure remains until this level is reclaimed.
🧠 Market Structure & Price Action:
After a sharp drop from the resistance zone, price found solid footing at the support zone.
Recent candles show rejection wicks from the downside, hinting at potential bullish reversal.
A breakout above minor consolidation and 50 EMA could trigger a bullish continuation toward the resistance.
📌 Forecast:
✅ If the price holds above the support zone and breaks above $108,200, we can expect a bullish move toward $112,000.
⚠️ However, a failure to break above the 50 EMA could lead to a retest of the support zone.
🧭 Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice):
📥 Long Bias:
Entry: On confirmed breakout above $108,200
SL: Below $107,000
TP: $111,800 – $112,300
📌 Conclusion:
The chart setup suggests a potential bullish reversal 📈 from a key support zone, supported by EMA 200. Watch for a break above the 50 EMA for momentum confirmation.
🧠 Always confirm with volume and wait for confirmation before entering a position.
EUR/CHF Technical Outlook – Potential Bullish Reversal Setup📈 Pair: EUR/CHF
📆 Date: May 27, 2025
📊 Timeframe: Daily (D1)
📌 Technical Highlights:
🔹 Current Price: 0.93456
🔹 Key Indicators:
50 EMA (Red): 0.93824
200 EMA (Blue): 0.94342
🧠 Chart Analysis:
🔻 Downtrend Resistance Line: A clear descending trendline is pressing price lower, reinforcing a bearish structure since March.
🟣 Reversal Zone (Support Area):
Price is currently hovering just above the marked Reversal Point, a demand zone between 0.93000–0.93400. Historically, this zone has acted as a launch pad for upward momentum.
🟪 Resistance Level:
Located around 0.94300–0.94600, this zone is reinforced by the 200 EMA, making it a critical breakout area. A strong bullish close above this region could invalidate the downtrend.
🔄 Two Scenarios to Watch:
✅ Bullish Breakout Scenario:
Price may bounce from the reversal zone.
A break and retest above the resistance level could lead to bullish continuation toward 0.9500–0.9550.
Confirmation above the 200 EMA will add confidence to the breakout.
📈 Potential Buy Entry: On breakout and retest of 0.9450
🎯 Target: 0.9550
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 0.9320
❌ Bearish Continuation Scenario:
If price fails to hold above the reversal point, sellers may regain control.
A breakdown below 0.9300 could trigger further downside toward 0.9200 or lower.
📉 Sell Setup Invalid Until: Price closes below 0.9300 on strong volume.
🧭 Conclusion:
This chart suggests a critical decision point for EUR/CHF. A bounce from the reversal zone followed by a confirmed break above resistance could signal the start of a medium-term uptrend. Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation signals near the trendline and EMA zones.
🚦 Bias: Neutral to Bullish, awaiting confirmation
🧠 Tip: Watch for candlestick patterns (like bullish engulfing or pin bars) near the support zone for early entries.
CRM Salesforce Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought CRM before this rally:
nor sold this top:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CRM Salesforce prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $5.15.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
S SentinelOne Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought S before the recent rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of S SentinelOne prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 20usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $2.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ELF Beauty Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ELF Beauty prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 85usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-5-30,
for a premium of approximately $5.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
PSTG Pure Storage Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of PSTG Pure Storage prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 60usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $2.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ZS Zscaler Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on ZS:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ZS Zscaler prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 250usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2026-1-16,
for a premium of approximately $29.30.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
ETHUSD📊 1H Analysis – ETHUSD
Strategy: 🐊 Alligator Strategy
Trend: 📈 Strong Uptrend
📝 Trade Plan
🎯 Entry Point (EP): 2577
🛡️ Stop Loss (SL): 2514.76
💰 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 2645.46
🚀 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 2706.17
🔄 Execution:
Open two trades at the Entry Point (2577)
When TP1 hits, move SL to EP for the remaining trade
Let the second trade ride to TP2 or more