Indices
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In this week's abbreviated trading session, the S&P 500 index has again shown a constant upward trend. Current price action exhibits a solid indication to hit our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023, and move higher to Inner Index Rally #1 4647 and #2 4713, respectively. However, it's important to note that the market may experience transient pullbacks at this level, causing severe drawdown.
Once the market successfully achieves these targets, the subsequent squeezes will likely be significant and turbulent. Traders and investors should, therefore, be cautious and watchful during this phase, as it could considerably impact their trading and investment approach.
DOW JONES showing a Bearish Divergence. Expect correction soon.Dow Jones is extending the rally since the October 27th bottom, which was a HL of the dominant Channel Up pattern. The 1D technical outlook is overbought (RSI = 71.474, MACD = 390.490, ADX = 67.776) but the difference maker on the technical field is the CCI metric. Being also overbought over 100.00, it is showing a Bearish Divergence, which was present on the last three short term corrections since the March 15th Channel Up HL.
Common characteristic on all three was that the High was formed halfway through the CCI Bearish Divergence and the correction that followed always hit the 1D MA50. Consequently, we expect a correction to start as soon as next week, that will target the 1D MA50, before the Christmas rally begins.
Currently the estimated pullback target is at 34,450.
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: European Equities and DAX: Navigating Bullish Sentiment Amid EEuropean equity markets, especially the German DAX, are poised with a bullish sentiment despite concerns about a potential economic slowdown in 2024. Analysts surveyed anticipate a moderate increase in European benchmarks, projecting a 4.1% rise for the pan-European STOXX 600 index and a 2.5% increase for the Euro STOXX 50 index by the end of next year. Amid worries over economic headwinds and the possibility of a recession, the markets remain cautiously optimistic, attributing the potential growth to expectations of a more dovish stance from central banks and a potential easing in energy prices.
Despite Germany's position as the bloc's industrial powerhouse facing challenges due to its reliance on energy-intensive industries and external demand, the German DAX is expected to rise by 5% by the end of 2024, building upon its 14% gain in 2023. Analysts emphasize the importance of key levels for the DAX, suggesting that a breakout from current resistance levels could signify a bullish trajectory for both Germany and the broader U.S. markets. Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD also align with this bullish sentiment, providing buy signals.
Investors are cautiously optimistic, considering the potential for a year-end rally in the U.S. to positively impact European equities due to increased risk appetite globally. However, concerns persist regarding a possible economic slowdown's impact on European markets, particularly in the latter half of 2024, posing challenges for sustained growth.
The current outlook for DAX hints at a continuation of its upward trend, potentially reaching resistance levels around 16,060. However, analysts also note the possibility of a drop towards support levels around 15,860 should a pivot point at 15,962.66 be breached, reinforcing the importance of monitoring key levels for cues about future market directions.
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NASDAQ: Final phase of rise is starting. Santa's rally.Nasdaq has been rising since October 26th and the bottom on the HL trendline of the year long Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook is bullish after turning overbought on Monday (RSI = 68.584, MACD = 265.250, ADX = 67.453). So far its structure is much like the rise at the start of the Channel Up during the whole month of January.
That one peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extenstion from the last LH, while the 1D RSI turned flat above the overbought margin and reversed. However the 1.5 Fib made a +20% rise. The November rally is already fractionally over the 1.5 Fib with the RSI also reversed after being overbought but the +20% extension is far from being completed. It will be done at 16,870. Consequently if we don't get a strong rejection by Monday (tomorrow is early close), we will buy any 1D candle closing over the 1.5 Fib and aim at near +20% (TP = 16,850).
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S&P500: Channel Up is holding on 4H.The S&P500 maintains its steady uptrend since the October 27th bottom, inside a Channel Up pattern. This (on a projected +7.15% 2nd bullish wave) targets above the R3 July 27th High (TP = 4,650). Being however overbought on the 4H technical outlook (RSI = 70.276, MACD = 22.060, ADX = 31.456), we will be ready to short if the price crosses under the 4H MA50 and target the 4H MA200 (TP = 4,400).
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BluetonaFX - SPX Near 10 Week HighHi Traders!
There is bullish momentum on the SPX as the market has been at its highest level in ten weeks.
Price Action 📊
After the previous resistance break above 4393.57, the market gapped to the upside to start the trading week, and the bullish momentum has continued. We are looking for further bullish momentum to target September's high at 4541.25.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
US Indices have been rallying lately due to the weaker than expected figures coming out of the US lately. Traders are increasingly worried about the USD, so stocks and indices are on the rise.
Support 📉
4393.57: PREVIOUS RESISTANCE
Resistance 📈
4541.25: 10 WEEK HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 index has been showing a consistent upward trend for a while now, and it has reached our designated Mean Resistance level of 4515 in this week's price action. This price level indicates a strong indication of retesting our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023. However, it's important to note that the market may experience a temporary pullback at this level, causing it to fall back to Mean Support of 4487. This transient retracement is essential for gathering momentum for the next rally phase.
If the market successfully retests the completed Inner Index Rally, the subsequent pullback will likely be significant and turbulent. This means traders and investors should be cautious and watchful during this phase, as it could considerably impact their trading and investment approach.
DAX H4 | Running into resistanceThe DAX (GER30) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 15654.35 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 15825.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 15349.03 which is an overlap support.
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DOW JONES: The top is close. Pullback expected.Dow Jones is unfolding the second rally sequence of the 1 year Channel Up and has reached today the 0.786 Fibonacci level of July's High. The 1D technical outlook is about to turn overbought (RSI = 68.650, MACD = 236.580, ADX = 32.415) and as the rally approaches the R1 level (35,100) as well as being almost on the +9.05% range from the bottom, we are looking towards a late April peak formation and pullback.
The pullback is expected to be at a -2.75% minimum, like June 23rd that reached the 1D MA50. Sell, TP = 34,300.
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Dow Jones To 34150 $DowJones is going to be in downtrend in next few days while dollar going to be stronger.
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S&P500: Over July's Channel Down. Big bullish breakout.S&P500 crossed over the Channel Down that started in late July, turned bullish on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.269, MACD = 21.240, ADX = 31.244) and ahead of the U.S. CPI report is targeting the R2 level. If today's 1D candle closes over the top of the Channel Down, aim at the R2 without a pullback (TP = 4,530). If it closes under it, buy after a pullback near the 1D MA50, with the same target.
Long term, we are targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 4,690), as this is the technical target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, which was validated by the 1D RSI Double Bottom on October 27th.
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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The Spooz index pivoted briefly from the completed Inner Index Rally 4375. This transition allowed traders with long positions to exit with prudence. The current momentum is solid and targets a Mean Resistance of 4515. Traders expect this momentum to ultimately lead to a retest of our completed Inner Index Rally 4590 on July 27, 2023. However, it's worth noting that the market can be quite reactive, and sudden fluctuations in either direction may occur. As such, traders should remain vigilant and have a sound strategy in place to deal with unexpected market movements.
BluetonaFX - SPX Potential Double Top SHORT OpportunityHi Traders!
There is a potential double top pattern formed on the 1D S&P500 chart, and there is potential for further moves to the downside depending on whether we get another price rejection at the important 4393.57 level, which is the 4-week high.
Price Action 📊
The market has had a big price rejection around the 4393.57 level and has now reached that level again. There is potential for a short entry with a small stop loss above 4393.57 for good risk-reward opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
There were weak US major figures recently posted, with weaker than expected PMI figures and Non-Farm jobs data. The Fed also failed to commit to further interest rate hikes, which has left traders nervous about the US dollar.
Support 📉
4355.41: PREVIOUS DAY'S LOW
4284.79: 20 EMA
4103.78: 2 WEEK LOW
Resistance 📈
4386.26: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH
4393.57: 4 WEEK HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
DOW JONES: Final pump before correction.Dow Jones turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.241, MACD = -34.600, ADX = 33.114) after more than three weeks as it smashed past our target and even crossed over the R1 level (34,150). The inevitable formation of a Golden Cross on the 4H timeframe, indicates that this sequence has one more High left to give on the LH and HH trendlines cross.
The 4H MACD Bearish Cross is very much like October 12th, both took off on a Double Bottom Bullish Cross. This is our last short term buy (TP = 34,500).
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