MNQ Continued Bearish Bias OutlookMy directional Bias for MNQ remains Bearish with the expectation on price to trade lower into the D BISI and take the SSL from the double bottom around 20640.00 I also like how price wicked the CE level of the D BISI that could indicate lower prices since price cant even make it through the inefficiencies 50% CE level. Now price may not make the move lower all the way and could just trade as low as the D Discount Wick 50% level which is also conveniently placed in CP to the D BISI CE level as well but lets see what price gives us.
Indices
This China A50 bounce could have legsThe China A50 futures market topped in October after a near 50% surge in just three weeks. Yet as price action since appears to have been corrective, I'm seeking evidence that its retracement has ended. And that is why Tuesday's bounce from the 200-day SMA has grabbed my attention.
MS
NASDAQ: First 4H Death Cross since September is a Buy Signal!Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.062, MACD = -70.200, ADX = 29.762) as it is on a downtrend since December 16th, almost 1 month. Technically this downtrend is the bearish wave of the medium term Channel Up. Last Wednesday the index formed its first 4H Death Cross since September 10th 2024 and interestingly enough, instead of bullish, it was a buy signal then. As the current bearish wave is now almost at the bottom of the Channel Up, this is technically a HL, thus the most efficient buy entry on the short term. The September bullish wave peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci extension before a pullback under the 4H MA50 again, so we now turn bullish on Nasdaq, aiming again for the 1.236 Fib (TP = 22,500).
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Russell 2000 H1 | Pullback resistance at 38.2% FibonacciRussell 2000 (US2000) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 2,216.27 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 2,250.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 2,161.49 which is a swing-low support.
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The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURAUD - Short SetupMy main trading principle is that the price always moves from swept liquidity levels to untouched liquidity levels.
In particular case we clearly can see the following context: price swept 1D key liquidity level and left untouched level lower, this indicates on probable distribution Wyckoff range.
But to take more statistically probable trades we should wait for some type of lower timeframe confirmation, and in this case we can notice sign of weakness (reaching the middle of the range), so potentially there is a higher probability to see price lower.
Your success is determined solely by your ability to consistently follow the same principles.
DOW JONES: contact with the 4 month Support Zone. Strong hold.Dow Jones approached the oversold limit today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.566, MACD = -404.260, ADX = 33.712) as it hit the S1 Zone, which is in effect since late September 2024. The last test of this Zone (November 4th 2024) also coincided with the 4H RSI getting oversold (under 30.000) and the price was also trading inside a Channel Down. By early next week, we expect the index to initiate a similar rebound, aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,300).
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FTSE 100 H4 | Potential bearish breakoutFTSE 100 (UK100) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here.
Sell entry is at 8,217.99 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 8,285.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 8,117.18 which is an overlap support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
DAX H4 | Bullish bounce off overlap support?DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 20,069.07 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 19,800.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 20,418.50 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
NAS100/USTEC - 4hr| Descending TriangleSimple Trading: Descending Triangle
Nas100 has been trailing down for the past week. if the price breaks below 20,700, then the bullish momentum may be loss. Expect Nas100 to continue to bounce from one end of the triangle to the other end. Once the Triangle is broken, we can reveal the exact target area. Keep in mind that the last 4hr candle has closed below the previous candle low. Price could be preparing for a pullback before continuing to make a lower low. This will either be a break and retest with continued bearish pressure or a complete fakeout.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Update: Peaking Phase in FocusIn our previous analysis, we projected a bullish trend for the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), forecasting its strength to persist until it reached a critical "Area of Interest" (highlighted in pink on the chart). This area corresponds to a significant resistance zone near the 109.6–110.0 level, as marked on the chart.
Current Observations:
- The DXY has now entered the projected "peaking phase," as shown by its approach to the identified resistance zone.
- Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, suggest overbought conditions near this level, reinforcing the likelihood of a reversal.
- The chart highlights a series of ascending waves culminating in the current peak, aligning with the earlier analysis of the bullish phase ending by early 2025.
What’s Next?
- A bearish reversal is anticipated, with the DXY likely retracing to lower support levels. Key targets for the downturn are:
- The 100.00 psychological level, which also aligns with a structural support zone.
- The 97.8 level, representing a major support from previous price action.
- The longer-term downtrend trendline remains intact, suggesting the DXY could experience sustained weakness throughout 2025.
Implications for Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies:
As noted earlier, a weakening U.S. dollar often correlates with upward momentum in dollar-denominated assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If the DXY confirms its reversal, we could see a bullish breakout in Bitcoin beginning around Q1–Q2 2025, as the market prices in dollar devaluation.
Conclusion:
Investors should monitor the DXY's behavior closely within the "Area of Interest." Confirmation of a bearish reversal could trigger significant market shifts across various asset classes. Stay vigilant for further updates as the DXY's trajectory unfolds.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 10, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 demonstrated a robust rally, exceeding a notable support level at 5872. This upward movement, however, resulted in a significant decline of the index to a critical support level at 5870 and lower lows. The volatility associated with this upward trend has introduced instability by destabilizing the bullish trend by flagging a new downward target marked at Outer Index Dip 5645. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent support levels of Mean Sup 5770 may trigger a substantial rally, potentially leading to the Mean Res at 5920, before plunging again to drop toward the targeted level of 5645.
DJIA H4 | Swing-high resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDJIA (US30) is rising towards a swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 42,953.75 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 43,370.00 which is a level that sits above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 42,139.85 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 5,924.14
1st Support: 5,838.66
1st Resistance: 5,964.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
S&P500: bottomed on Inverse Head and Shoulders.S&P500 turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -21.350, ADX = 28.601) as it is under the 4H MA50 since Tuesday. Even though it is on a 4H MA200 rejection, the short term technical pattern that has emerged is an Inverse Head and Shoulders, about to complete the Right Shoulder. With the long term pattern being a Channel Up, we can technically target its top (TP = 6,200), which is under the 2.0 Fib target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
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Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,924.14
1st Support: 5,838.66
1st Resistance: 5,964.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NASDAQ: The buy zone is under the 1D MA50.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.510, MACD = 54.540, ADX = 27.946) as it got rejected yesterday back to its 1D MA50. This trendline is holding since September 12th and during this 4 month period is sustained a very steady uptrend. This is so far the bullish sequence with the slowest pace inside the 2 year Channel Up. This lack of strength along with the fact that the 1D RSI formed a pattern that during these 2 years was followed by a dip under the 1D MA50, suggests that it might be best waiting for the price to hit the 1D MA100 before placing a long term buy again. Once this condition is met, we will go long and aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 24,350), which was always hit when a Channel Top was priced.
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SPX500 H4 | Sideways price actionSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 6,004.61 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 6,060.00 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,825.91 which is a multi-swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
ASX futures tease bearish with a potential swing highSanta's rally put in a poor performance this year. ASX futures sold off into Christmas before the 200-day SMA and 8000 handle came before the market eked out a weak comeback into the new year. Yet price action on the daily chart suggests we could be approaching a swing high.
It appears we're in a third wave higher from 8000, yet momentum lacks the legs of the initial bounce to suggest an ABC correction could be nearing an end. The 50-day SMA has so far capped today's rally and could leave a bearish pinbar should it close the day around current levels. A multi-week bearish divergence has formed on the RSI (14) and the daily RSI (2) is approaching overbought.
The bias is to fade into moves towards the 50-day SMA and target the November low. But if appetite for risk truly sours, we could see prices break beneath the 200-day SMA and 8000 level and head for the lower trendline of the rising channel.
MS
DAX H4 | Pullback resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementDAX (GER30) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 20,212.82 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 20,393.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 19,825.69 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 made a wild ride pullback against a very significant Mean Sup 5870. Subsequently, it rallied robustly, approaching our newly established target of Key Resistance at 5972. This upward movement is anticipated to stabilize or continue to rise, sustaining the bullish trend. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that encountering subsequent resistance may trigger a substantial pullback, potentially leading to the Mean Support at 5870, which remains a plausible scenario.