✅ Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY AUGUST 01, 2023Key News:
Australia - RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug)
UK - S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
USA - ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)
USA - JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)
On Monday, both Wall Street and global stocks displayed minimal changes, indicating relative stability in the markets. However, oil prices recorded some gains, and the US dollar remained mostly steady. Market participants were closely monitoring upcoming corporate earnings, central bank meetings, and an important employment report scheduled for this week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a slight increase of 0.11%, reaching 35,499.78, while the S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged at 4,582.45. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a modest gain of 0.07%, reaching 14,326.87. The overall market sentiment seemed cautious as investors awaited significant events that could potentially impact the financial landscape.
In the coming days, traders will be paying close attention to corporate earnings reports, as they can significantly influence stock prices and market sentiment. Additionally, central bank meetings are scheduled, which can provide insights into monetary policy decisions that may influence currency markets and investor confidence.
Moreover, an important employment report is eagerly anticipated by market participants. This data release can have a considerable impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of the ongoing recovery from the global economic challenges posed by the pandemic.
Nasdaq indices daily chart
SPX indices daily chart
This week, investors are eagerly anticipating earnings reports from several notable companies, including Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), scheduled to release their reports on Thursday. The market will closely monitor these results, as they can have a significant impact on individual stock prices and broader market sentiment. Additionally, earnings reports are also expected from well-known companies like Caterpillar Inc (NYSE: CAT), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ: SBUX), and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), adding to the week's eventful financial calendar.
European Markets Record Positive Session
European markets had a positive session, concluding a strong month of gains. The DAX achieved yet another record high, reflecting the market's optimistic outlook. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 rebounded strongly after experiencing a significant two-day sell-off just under a week ago, indicating renewed investor confidence. The overall performance of European markets suggests a favorable market sentiment and hints at the possibility of further growth in the region.
As the week progresses, investors will be closely watching earnings reports and market developments for potential market-moving events. The combination of key company results and overall market performance will shape investor sentiment and guide market trends in the near future.
CAC40 indices daily chart
The FTSE100 index displayed impressive performance, reaching a two-month high, signaling a positive trend in the market. Notably, housebuilders stood out as they experienced a notable rebound in their stock prices. This surge in housebuilders' stocks can be attributed to a decrease in expectations for interest rate hikes, which have subsided from the peak levels observed a few weeks ago.
The overall market sentiment appears to be optimistic, with investors gaining confidence in the stability of the market. The positive momentum in the FTSE100 index indicates a favorable outlook for investors and suggests potential growth opportunities in various sectors. As interest rate hike concerns ease, housebuilders, in particular, have benefited, leading to an upswing in their stock prices.
FTSE 100 daily chart
The positive momentum observed in global markets can be attributed to significant gains in Chinese equity markets. Chinese policymakers have signaled their intention to implement measures aimed at bolstering the economy in the coming weeks. This stance from Chinese authorities has boosted investor confidence and contributed to the overall positive sentiment in global markets.
Japanese Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Takes Unanticipated Measures
The Japanese yen experienced weakness today following unexpected moves by the Bank of Japan. The central bank intervened by purchasing bonds in an effort to lower yields after the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield surged above 0.6%, surpassing the bank's upper target of 0.5%. As a result of this intervention, the yen slid to a three-week low against the US dollar.
The Bank of Japan's decision to take action to control bond yields reflects its commitment to maintaining stability in the financial markets. However, the unanticipated move had an impact on the yen's value, leading to a decline against the US dollar.
USD/JPY daily chart
The Australian dollar experienced a significant increase, driven by short covering ahead of tomorrow's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate meeting. Traders speculated that the central bank might raise rates by another 25 basis points. Initially, the consensus was for the RBA to maintain rates unchanged, but weaker-than-expected Q2 CPI figures from last week suggested that the necessary adjustments had already been made.
Although there was a slight decline from 5.5% to 5.4% in annual inflation, which is still relatively high, the unemployment rate at 3.5% could entice the RBA to raise rates from 4.1% to 4.35%. However, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicating contraction, there is a risk that such a move could be precarious.
The surge in the Australian dollar reflects market expectations and speculation surrounding the RBA's rate decision. Investors are closely watching the central bank's actions and statements for further insights into its monetary policy stance. As economic indicators continue to influence the RBA's decision-making, traders will be cautious about the potential implications of a rate hike in the context of ongoing challenges in certain sectors of the Australian economy.
AUD/USD daily chart
As Thursday approaches, all eyes are on the British pound, with the Bank of England's rate decision scheduled for that day. The financial markets widely anticipate another rate hike, with the only uncertainty being the magnitude of the increase, whether it will be 25 basis points (bps) or 50 bps.
Today's mortgage approvals data for June provided some insights into the state of the housing market. The data suggested robust demand, but there are indications that this could be primarily attributed to strong interest in fixed rate rollovers. The net lending figure showed only a modest increase of £0.1 billion.
The upcoming rate decision will be closely monitored by investors, as it can have a significant impact on the British pound and financial markets. Depending on the magnitude of the rate hike, market participants will assess the Bank of England's stance on inflation and economic growth, which will shape the outlook for interest rates going forward.
The Bank of England's policy decisions are of utmost importance in the current economic landscape, as central banks worldwide grapple with managing inflationary pressures and navigating the post-pandemic recovery.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold prices are showing signs of a potential reversal from their losses experienced in June, but they have yet to breach the crucial resistance level of $2,000 per ounce. The depreciation of the US dollar has played a significant role in supporting gold prices, helping them recover from their lows.
Despite firmer long-term yields, there is a growing acceptance in the markets that US interest rates are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. This perception is buoying gold prices, as investors seek a hedge against the potential impact of sustained higher interest rates on other asset classes.
Investors are closely monitoring the developments in the global economy, inflation, and central bank policies to gauge the outlook for gold prices. Geopolitical uncertainties and ongoing pandemic-related challenges also contribute to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
As gold prices attempt to stage a comeback, investors are keenly observing any break above the critical $2,000 resistance level, which could signal further upside potential. The future trajectory of gold will be influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including the US dollar's performance, interest rate expectations, and global economic conditions.
Indices Europe
CAC40 to break above Falling Wedge?Falling Flag (Wedge) has formed on CAC40 since April 2023.
We have had the price come down each time but make a higher low and fail to break below 7,056.
It might be premature but, it looks like the momentum is pointing up (along with many other alternative indices).
I'll be happy to go long when the price breaks above. But now it's a waiting game.
7>21>200
RSI>50
Target 1 will be at 7,857
ABOUT THE INDEX
Name:
The CAC 40 is an abbreviation of "Cotation Assistée en Continu", which translates to "continuous assisted trading", and the number 40 refers to the number of companies represented in the index.
Establishment:
The CAC 40 was established on 31 December 1987, with a base value of 1,000 points.
Representative of French Market:
The CAC 40 is the benchmark stock market index in France, which reflects the performance of the 40 largest publicly traded companies listed on the Euronext Paris.
Diverse Sectors:
The index includes a diverse range of sectors, such as manufacturing, banking, pharmaceuticals, media, utilities, luxury goods, etc.
French stock market about to get REKTAll in short.
All the FUD during the last weeks is about to be priced in. So much fun is coming after $SI liquidation, now we have Silicon Valley Bank fud.
Let the greedy bulls era end and spread to Europe.
PS : Sorry I'm being emotional (but this is drawing a nice rounded top)
CAC40 to breakdown?FRA40 - Intraday - We look to Sell a break of 7509 (stop at 7561)
Previous support located at 7500.
Previous resistance located at 7570.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Short term momentum is bearish.
A move through 7500 will confirm the bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 7385 and 7365
Resistance: 7570 / 7600 / 7650
Support: 7500 / 7350 / 7300
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CAC to breakdown?FRA40 - 24h expiry -
Doji-style candle has been posted at the high.
Previous support is located at 7475.
Previous resistance is located at 7525.
Price action looks to be forming a top.
Short-term momentum is bearish.
A move through 7475 will confirm the bearish momentum.
We look to Sell a break of 7479 (stop at 7545)
Our profit targets will be 7325 and 7300
Resistance: 7525 / 7550 / 7600
Support: 7475 / 7400 / 7300
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SELL CL1!A bonus trade for you for today, on the chart you can see that the price was consolidating then cut through the channel and now it kept going down. Get in and set SL and TP at your own risk
I'm sorry I can't publish the only after giving my private clients signals after the market moves. Still you can make some profits.
CAC 40 still looking bon to 7,943Cup and Handle is still in play with CAC40,
7>21>200 -Bullish - Green background
RSI>50
Bullish bias
Target 7,943
Fundamentals:
Seems like the smaller exchanges are following the SPX, Nasdaq and even top companies now.
There is bullishness in the air all around. I will be taking advantage as much as I can until the trend changes
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuationTitle: CAC 40 Futures ( FCE1! ), D1 Potential for Bullish continuation
Type: Bullish continuation
Resistance: 7381.5
Pivot: 6397.5
Support: 6797.5
Preferred case: Looking at the D1 chart, my overall bias for FCE1! is bullish due to the current price crossing above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 7381.5, where the previous swing high is.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 6797.5, where the 50% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
CAC 40 HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the sellers from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong sellers will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + SUPPORT from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like and follow Thanks
Developing FRA40 pattern...?The bullish channel got violated after the peak at price 6797.7, this is now a change of structure. Looking for market to hit price 6627.1 which is our previous daily high then take a slight upward move to complete head-and-shoulders pattern… From the emerging formation then we can smoothly continue to go bearish until the neckline at 6420.0…
CAC40 NEW IDEA SHORT HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
CAC 40 HELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT CAC40 is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this LONG position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UP TREND + Resistance from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
CAC looking bullish again to 6,539Ascending triangle formed on Daily CAC index.
The price has broken out of its downtrend since Aug 2022 showing it's in a bull market.
Also price has broken above the Ascending Triangle with a target of 6,539
CONCERNS:
Price is still below the 200MA which denotes a long term bear market.
Nevertheless, I'm bullish.
Regards
MATI Trader