US30 Top-down AnalysisHello traders, this is the full breakdown of this pair. We will take this trade if all the conditions are satisfied as discussed in the analysis. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Indicesp500
SPX500 Entries + Exits for FREE!The ENTRY/TP zones are your entries as well as your exits.
Everything above the current candlestick is resistance, you would treat every zone above as a sell/potential buy break.
Everything below the current candlestick is support, which you would then treat every zone below as a buy/potential sell break if it hits the pip rule.
More info on the strategy and how to play it:
How To Play The Chart Entries/Exits:
Buy at green support entry, if it breaks by -35 pips (count it out) then enter a sell and ride to TP1, 2 and 3. Trail stop at each TP which means place your stop loss in profit but with enough room to be able to continue the sell if it continues. Same thing at resistance, sell but if broken by 35 pips then enter the buy and ride to TP1. Each TP is a support or resistance zone , so you could then even take a sell after TP1 for the buys have been hit and if it breaks out then just repeat.
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US500: One Final DipThe S&P500 might be going into one final small bearish impulse before making new highs. The index has been soaring for almost 2 weeks, erasing gains made during the summer. This correction was expected, but as inflation rates in the US are going down the US500 will be going back to its bullish track during the next week. This is the final opportunity for buyers as the index is moving around its EMA50. Patience is key.
Trade Safe
Cyril
S&P500 POSSIBLE NEXT MOVE DOWNFor this trade i excpect an agressive move down.We can ese how the price is respecting our level 100 of the Fib Retracement. Im excpecting for it to go down till the 50 or 61 level and then go in with a little buy to the level 100 again with at least 500 pips in profit.
S&P500 not aloud to go down?The buy backs on the main market indices have been interesting to watch lately, both the S&P500 and the DJI have had some sharp sell offs from our ridiculous highs, only to be met with extremely strong buy backs the following day almost making it easy picking for a top up on your position.
I had an interesting discussion with a mate of mine last night throwing around a few theories, that whilst Interest rates are low the bond markets are dwindling, cash is no good to hold because of the looming inflation, bond markets are a contract to lose money right now so people are looking for "riskier" alternatives and taking more interest into the stock market or even crypto currencies.
You see there idea of money flow is like this \/\/
Cash = Benchmarked against inflation (Your cash is losing buying power every day so you need to get rid of it somewhere)
Bonds = Benchmarked against Cash (This is a safe place to avoid the loss in buying power against inflation however low return, considered a risk free return)
Index = Benchmarked against Bonds (A little more riskier than the bond market with high potential reward although potential for short term drawdowns or bear market which is opportunity cost)
Active port folio = Benchmarked against Index (higher risk that an index, requires more skill, research and time, can offer fantastic rewards but much higher risk of not being profitable at all)
Gambling = Benchmarked against Active port folio (Super high risk, penny stocks/crypto/start ups etc, throwing money on punts for one last hope of making bank, 99% of the time ends in tears)
As more and more people jump into the markets with very little education or experience or simply high expectations, then the old avg of 7-8% return buying the market seems like an underachiever right now so people are looking for riskier options to beat the market.
There is no surprise of the influx of new "investors" making there way into facebook groups and shilling random penny stock companies and meme coins in the hope of 10xing there money in a week that we are seeing over valued pricing in the market as people rush to "diversify" into whats hot right now.
Some with a basic understanding might be out there loading up on various ETF's or market trading index funds which can also cause an increase in buying activity into these large cap companies which only contributes to the over evaluation of the entire market.
Seeing a PE ratio of 80 right now is considered low lol, if you dismiss this company as over valued based on a PE metric then your most likely going to be missing out on a lot of upside as people continue to buy into the market looking for safe havens or dreams of becoming overnight millionaires, and if the gov continue the QE program then we are going to continue to see these assets being bought up in bulk.
Crazy times, but just got to roll with it
US30 Shorting OpportunityMAJOR resistance level is hit this week by CURRENCYCOM:US30 I want to see price forming some consolidation before plunging down to the first red level. If it breaks below it further downside is expected.
S&P 500 / SPY Breaks Down to Support, Bounce or Larger Crash?The S&P 500 has broken down to trendline support after a failed breakout at 4240. The SPY index formed a high at 4238 and tried to break it at 4255, but failed to hold above that alltimehigh. It is now testing trendline support, and the question is whether price will bounce here at support or will support fail to hold and thus lead to a much larger correction.
Part of the reason that I'm looking at the S&P500 even though I mostly focus on Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is that the correlation between the two has recently been quite high, and they have both been retracing in the past few days, so a recovery in the S&P500 could also bode well for a recovery in Bitcoin and the wider cryptoassets.
The key level to watch is 4175. If this level holds, then we remain above the trendline and can expect another leg up. If we close below 4175, then be prepared for some volatility upon trendline break as we might have formed a double top, which will likely also trickle over to Bitcoin and other risk-on assets as well. Of course, it's possible that what we are seeing is similar to what we saw back in March, when price failed to hold a higher high, broke down a bit, and then rallied higher.
If price does break down, then the 200 day moving average at 3900 should serve as ultimate support, though I'd think that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve would have stepped in before that happens.
Will The S&P 500 Index Clear All Time Highs This Week?Hello traders!
These are interesting times we are in right now! National pandemic, yet our markets are rising day after day!
I'm doing my weekend review, charting, homework, reviewing lessons, celebrating wins and getting ready for next week and wanted to share my analysis for the S&P500 index.
This has recently become my favorite chart to trade due to volatility and how beautifully it moves!
Anyway, we can see that price wicked an all time high on 3/11/21 and retraced back down before making another run up towards the same highs at the end of this past week.
Analyzing the Daily chart I am seeing strong bullish sentiment solely considering the candle sticks, however we must consider the fact that we are at an all time high!
So the question is: Will it break the all time high this week?
My sentiment is bullish and always be bullish since that is all that this chart has done over the long run, but with such a strong rejection of this point in the past, we must keep in consideration the fact that it may do it again!
I'm excited to see what happens this week, its so interesting to see the rise of our markets during such crazy times in our world
Let me know what you think below, thumbs up if you agree!
Short MarketThe market has reached its all time high creating a new higher high which can be treated as a resistance @3941.1 for now. The RSI suggests that the market has been heavily overbought on 30m chart and a recorrection is to be expected.
On 4hr chart the support level 3896.8 is constantly being tested and looks like the market will test this level one more time before making yet another bullish move. If bears break the supp levels expect the market to test zone @3877.7 to 3868.5 supp level.
Else the long move is to be assumed go up to 4017.0.
Supp levels:
3918.0
3894.5 --> getting weak
3877.7 to 3868.5 --> strong supp zone
S&P Analysis Week of 12/06/2020: Another Melt Up?The S&P had a good week considering that for most of the week it went sideways to slightly creeping up. Always be weary of creeping markets (they can either stall out and reverse fast or pop to the upside out of nowhere).
Are we headed for another leg up (for a potential melt up), are we going to cool-off this week? I do not try to guess which way the market will go and instead I focus on what the market provides me.
This week might provide some volatility because in the U.S. the electoral college officially nominates the President and there is the potential for vaccine approval by the FDA.
I do not believe the lockdowns, unemployment or the virus will have the same impact as it did in February/March because we know about these things and we expect them to continue into next year. Also, I think the economy has adapted and will continue to adapt as we wait for the vaccine.
Lastly, the news is just an excuse to associate something to the stock market. At the end, the market is going to do what it is going to do regardless of the news.
Here are two setups that I will be looking for:
Trade Setup #1 (buy): This is easy and straight forward. Break above 3700 (with retest) and price will most likely have another leg higher. Above 3700 and it's uncharted territory. Price has no known resistance/support areas. The key here will be to watch as price moves up, how it reacts at certain levels. Taking profit will depend on your personal trading preference. For me, I'll look for 2-3 times my stop loss amount taking profit along the way.
Trade Setup #2 (sell) : Price has formed a wedge like structure and this trade tries to capitalize on a break down of the wedge. Although a valid trade, it is not a preferred trade because the trend is your friend until it is not. Technically the chart is bullish at almost every timeframe, so shorting an uptrend is not recommended. However, I will be watching the price action during the week and if I see price vulnerable, I will take this trade. Be cautious with this trade setup because it has less success potential IMO.
As mentioned in trade setup 2, price seems to have formed some wedge structure over the last several weeks. These are unpredictable, so it's better to wait to see if price breaks out or down before getting into a trade (with retest).
I do not use any indicators or complicated chart patterns because I feel those provide lagging false signals. Instead, I focus on support and resistance lines. This has served me well and has provided me good trade entry signals and profitable trades.
Never play the breakout, always wait for the retest and resumption. Breakouts are a losing man's trade because price more times than not, will come back to the breakout/breakdown area for a retest. The retest is your opportunity to pounce.
Good luck trading.
Don't forget to hit the like button.
SPX (S&P) GAP FILLED! What's next?SPX - I haven't changed much since I analysed this pair - GAP FILLED - Whats next?
Let me tell you it's simple - We could either head to the all time high areas again or we come out of this ascending channel and decline. Think about the arrows drawn....!
Bears are in control under: 3200
Bulls are in control above: 3280.9
This is looking at medium term outlook, in short term time frame we may even see, patterns, certain fibs levels or whatever indicators you use that you have on your trading plan.
It's been a great trade for sure, since March. However, be aware where we are heading and we could even dive into the fundamental aspects as well..Big question..when's that next stimulus coming? and in addition we got wait till Sept for FEDS and lovely treat at the end is elections...What a great year it has been in the markets!
Remember: Just an idea, not a recommendation.
All the best.