Get started

Indicesp500

Short idea on SPX (S&P500 index)This is looking more and more like a bull trap the more i look at it... We've seen a strong push to the upside around 20% or so from the lows and now everyone thinks its "bull season" I'm sure most of you is aware of the dead cat bounce theory, and for those of you who don't it is basically the thought that if you drop a cat off the roof it will bounce a bit higher after hitting the floor before falling again maybe even lower in the case of the market, and this is very similar to the market that we are seeing. With that being said we know that the market has been falling since the 20th of Feb and we have currently seen quite a positive move to the upside (20% or so from the lows) which is tricking the "silly money" into believing that this is the bottom and we are on our back to all time highs again, a classic bull trap! People seem to forget that fears of corona virus are not subsiding, if anything this corona virus is just getting started, the US has officially become the most infected Country in the world with the most amount of confirmed cases in the world! This isn't a positive for the US I can promise you that and It isn't going to have a positive affect on the dollar, the S&P 500 or any of there stocks. The spread of Covid 19 (being politically correct and all) is spreading faster and faster as the days go by with no real stop in sight, we are seeing deaths rise at an exponential rate as well as the number of people being affected climbing daily. I don't know about you but in my mind this doesn't paint a very positive picture for the dollar index, or the economy at large, but more specifically the American economy. With that being said i don't think that this is the end of the "crash" i see a lot of downside still to come and this is why: 1. As i stated above USA has the most confirmed cases in the world which can't be a good thing for them from an investment point of view. 2. The US Dollar index has recently seen a change in direction over the past weak or so indicating a change in direction to the downside, which is a good indication that we might see the US dollar index weaken in the coming week or so. FYI: The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the U.S.'s most significant trading partners. So in other words it is a direct representation of the strength f the dollar relative to other currencies. 3. The market formed a gap on its short burst up in price at around 2291 - 2340 and it is a well known phenomenon that when the market forms a gap in price that the market will make it's way back to close the gap. So with this being said i am quite confident that the market could make a move lower back to the lows in order to close this gap. 4. There is also a Fibonacci level or two in play here, we have the 50% retracement level around 2664 and the well known 61.8% retracement level a little higher at around 2774 (which is less likely to see price retest this level but still very possible). In conclusion I can see price perhaps pushing a little higher in the early days of this week, before falling further to at least the lows that were formed or even as low as 1939. Upon seeing a push lower i will look for bearish confirmation/bearish corrective structure before entering into a short position. Please note this is not trading advice and i am not pushing for a sell or buy but this can be seen as merely a market idea.
TVC:SPXShort
by Jinxfx
1
S&P 500 Sectoral OverviewWe have already mentioned that the S & P500 major rally started 57 weeks ago : We are now facing a tough sale. So which sectors were traded on the index or discounted in this process? You can view them from the terminal. I would like to write the sectors that remain inexpensive so that when we return to the favorable atmosphere, keep in our mind: OSX : PHLX Oil Service Sector Index XNG : NYSE ARCA Natural Gas SPSIOP : S&P Oil and Gas NQNACE : Nasdaq Yewno North America Cannabis Economy Index CONCLUSION : We see a discount from the commodity in general and the oil and gas sector in particular. But in order for us to evaluate them, there should be a time when we expect both an increase in the related commodities and a positive atmosphere in the S&P 500, then we can turn to these sectors and make profitable investments. Regards.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Noldo
SPY/SPX500 - Long Thesis into Year EndWe have seen volatility pick up as expected, check out my Instagram posts, where I have posted various charts, I even said we will look to fill in the 2821 gap at some point. Gaps in the indices tend to get filled eventually, as you see from the chart we have filled the gaps on the downside, however, we have 3 gaps unfilled above. This analysis is not based on gaps, so lets get that out the way, we are still in a clear uptrend, until we break the 2600 level, then we can possibly say we may have topped in the U.S. indices. With Emerging Markets and Europe in "Crash Mode", where is the flight to safety? Well, at this moment its the U.S. We are late in the cycle, I do believe the markets are at it's last stage of this rally, but we are not turning bearish until the critical levels break. What I think in the intermediate term 3-6 months, that we may do the same pattern as January - March 2018, before we rally upto the 3,000 level. We see 3 unfilled gaps above, I assume we get to fill those at one point. Reminder, not all gaps fill, but until the trend completely breaks down, then we are still bullish. Trade: Long break above 2875 to target 3,000 Twitter: @B15HU Instagram: @long2bear www.long2bear.com
AMEX:SPYLong
by B15H
2
Market Analysis for 10.10.2018 - US Indices It was a very exciting trading week ended on Friday 04th October 2018, it just goes to show that what goes up must definitely come down. Based on the last 2 trading sessions, the question we should be asking now is how far down will the markets be going? What does this new week bring? Some weeks it is difficult to technically forecast the market movement and I guess this is one of such week. There are lots of signals we can get into more like a month of bearishness but this does not look like a major reversal upheaval. The nature of the market is up and down. To help you understand the market and give you confidence that in years to come the stock market will go up and down. Last week saw a size able sell off but it was not unexpected because it happens in the stock market every so often. Up and Down is the nature of the game, it is just like the natural cycle of the seasons, we just need to get ready and ride the season through. Do not get caught up in the fake news, hyperbole and prevalent news occurrences be confident that up and down is the nature of the market. I am not worried about the future even though you were not set up for bearish market last week such things happen. We will be taking a balanced look at this market trend. Don’t be worried about the future of stock trade. Just to let you know, I don’t trade the fundamentals or the news, I am a technical trader by looking at the big picture. Since May the market as gone up and at some point we need to come back down. Since May 2018, the Moving Averages crossed and rallied with a little sell off on the DOW, this continued to move up and down and it happened last week. Interestingly same pattern on the S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43% and NASDAQ. DOW JONES (DOW) On Wednesday night the chart showed a shooting star and gravestone Doji candlestick occurred and it precedes a selling off (quite a reliable candlestick pattern) with such candlestick pattern you tighten your stops. We saw the warning and it happened because Thursday market we had a bearish day it gives a 3-day evening star reversal candlestick pattern which happened meaning a continuation of the bearing market and may probably lead to the DOW selling off to 26000 points. On Thursday we sold off to the 10 period moving average and on Friday we had a long lower shadow which means buying pressure. On a 5-minute chart pattern to see the intra-day view, we notice the technical opening showed we traded down and close to the end of the day we traded back up. At the end of the day we had buying pressure despite the bearish market. What Do We Expect? The trending behavior setup is either bullish or bearish . Monday 8th October 2018 market is a coin toss because the trading set up is positioned for either a sell off or buy on. We knew the bearish trend was coming in because it was all overbought and the candlestick splitting. In the event the bearishness continue we need to look for extreme ranges of maybe 25500 but 26000. However, a lot of buying pressure like we saw during the summer hopefully the correction will be done by Wednesday and we will be on the way to our bullish trend . Sadly, Oscillator are heading down may enter the oversold region. None of the oscillator is supporting buy. RSI is back to 50% and with a full blow move to oversold we may end up to the 26,000 points index. The Moving Averages are not compromised, the trend looks strong in the bullish picture. The Ebbs and Flows are natural. S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43% This is pulled back to a good support at 2885 and buying pressure coming in last week. There were lots of selling pressure for 6 days preceding the sell off last week to the 50 period moving average along with a buying pressure end of last week. There is an equilibrium leading to an unconvinced market. What gives me optimistic is we are on a support and if it doesn’t hold then aim for 2800. Similar assessment on the S&P -3.66% -3.43% as the DOW. The sell off was fast, scary but not to be too concerned. Oscillators pulling back and a bearish divergence on stochastic and a weak divergence on the MACH-D. with stochastic there seems to be a hold point at the 50 mark and may not go below to the oversold range. See the trend line and the horizontal line in the image above. Bollinger band is in a squeeze. It is not a fully confirmed bear or bull market . NASDAQ This closed below the 50 period MA and it is alarming because it sold off to 7399. The buying pressure on Friday is a good sign to a bullish trend if not the NASDAQ could be a complete reversal. Oscillators are bearish and the Bollinger band squeeze seems to be breaking bearish possibly down to 7250 and a bullish market continues. The Bollinger band squeeze breaks downwards happens with force but reverses also quickly from my experience. ADX is moving up which is sign of a bearish strength and the parabolic is bearish . The NASDAQ is definitely the outlier. Conclusion I believe the big picture trend is still intact there is not enough to change our outlook on the market despite the sell off from the last two trading sessions. The market is 50 percent but we do not need to change our outlook on the market. This seems to be the overall outlook on the market.
DJ:DJIShort
by padedayo
SPX MEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomedMEDIUM TERM: downtrend may have bottomed When we look back at Intermediate wave ii in 2016. We find it lasted two months, and was an irregular zigzag correction : 2026-2121-1992. The current Intermediate wave iv correction is also three waves 2533-2802-2554, is just a bit more than two months, and appears to be a flat. The alternation setup, between the significant second and fourth waves of a bull market is clear. After the SPX 2554 low the market rallied. The first rally looked impulsive (2554-2672) and we labeled it Minor wave 1. The pullback that followed to SPX 2586 we labeled Minor 2. Next we expected a Minor wave 3 liftoff. But all we have seen this week is a lot of choppy, buy the dip-sell the rip activity. Five gap openings, four higher, a 2% weekly gain, but a lot of chop. Medium term support is at the 2656 and 2632, with resistance at the 2731 and 2780 pivots.
SP:SPX
by PpSignal01
Amazing S&P strategy, high % of winnersS&P 500 Oanda Hello Dear followers, last week was a great start but we have far more fun in stalled for you this week. Here is something a little different for those wanting to see how simple trading can be, and make some money in different areas. MY S & P strategy is simple, and wins a lot I only trade the S&P 9-12 days a year. I use the same order, strategy and Stop loss. In the last three years I have won over 90% of the time. If you would like to see the trades, which have been profitable for years then follow me quick as one of those days is early this week. Quote of the day "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." - Phillip Fisher Another testament to the fact that investing without an education and research will ultimately lead to regrettable investment decisions. Research is much more than just listening to popular opinion.
OANDA:SPX500USDEducation
by DollarsAndSense
SPX500 Trump abandoned 'strong dollar' rhetoric?SPX500 reached an all time high and now bulls keep being rejected at 2280s level which appears to be a good resistance. US Dollar entered a period of pressure and Trump already abandoned 'strong dollar' rhetoric saying that high USD value actually could be bad for US economy. RSI pre-dominantly stays below 50% which further makes bull supporters question if there are any valid reasons for a further increase of SPX500. 1h chart has Moving Averages crossing in a bearish direction.
FX:SPX500Short
by DzhuneytYusein