$JSEJ211 Industrial Index 25. Top for channel Looks like me might be headed for the bottom of this channel next. All share will follow due to the heavy weighing of this index.
Indicies
#ALSI Close to resistance Time to start becoming cautious again. We are in over throw territory here. Take care when committing to new long positions.
bazzman78tv - FTSE UKX level to watch W.C 12/02/2019Hi there,
The way i see things (purely my opinion only), technically it makes sense to me why there has been a rejection late last week of the recent rise up.
You may be asking - what is in the way for resistance levels? Well,
We have
- September low (red horizontal line)
- November high (red horizontal line)
- 50% Fib from recent low/high in the way
It is quite possible we may see some weakness next week - based on my daily chart review.
Notes:
Green line = 500 day SMA
Black line = 100 day SMA
Yellow Line = 200 day SMA
Red Line = 55 day SMA
I only use one indicator being the slow stochastic indicator.
No dramas.
bazzman78t
09/02/2019
Bazzman78t - First official post on TV, SPX500 for W.C 12/02/19We all have different ways of analysis and reviews - and i know there is no one right method. Here is my first share and post.
This is my take on the week ahead for the SPX500 (week commencing 12 February 2019).
Interesting resistance levels to watch - as shown on my WEEKLY chart.
55 day MA in sight
61.8 fib from recent low high
Notes as part of my normal chart setup:
Green line = 500 day SMA
Black line = 100 day SMA
Yellow Line = 200 day SMA
Red Line = 55 day SMA
I only use one indicator being the slow stochastics.
No dramas.
bazzman78t
09/02/2019
#DJIA We are in a very precarious spot. There has been a lack of momentum above the 200 day weighed moving average. If weakness continues today, we will most likely end up with a bearish inverted hammer on the weekly. This is not the type of set up where you would want to add to current positions. Strength was likely driven by retail investors and not institutions. A correction in a bear market.
All Share - Think we still have some upside potentialTechnically I sill think we could still see more upside before a proper resistance level is reached. Cautiously optimistic.
JSE ALL Share Index - Inside day Pin bar yesterday followed by an inside day today. More downside to come....?
All share index - Overthrow and breaking back into channelNo follow through became a common theme in 2018. Lack of momentum clearly visible on the JSE.
JSE all share index - Top of channelALSI at top of channel again. Will it break this time around or will resistance hold once again ?
ALSI formed a bearish shooting star doji on dailyALSI formed a bearish shooting star doji on daily right on a resistance level. The bottom of this well defined channel is a likely target in coming days.
Respecting the bearish channel in SPX - SHORTS THROUGH 2685Trade set up: Our bias leans towards a short in the SPX, where we are looking for a break below the recent low of 2685 to enter the position. Upon this development, we would set a stop loss at 2725 and our take profit set at 2603. This profit target is subject to change and dependent on the price action, as a break of 2603 would hold huge bearish implications. We will update this idea as it plays out.
Why we like it: Technically the trade is pointing to a solid short opportunity – with the stochastic momentum heading lower, and short-term price analysis showing a series of lower lows and highs. The 5-day EMA has acted as dynamic resistance and contained the rallies of late. We also note the recent 8% relief rally reversed off the 61.8% Fib level.
Our view is to wait for a break of the 30 October high of 2685, as this would throw a probability of an extension of the bearish channel and suggest a move into the neckline of the recent double top at 2603.
Disclaimer.
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Free Stock Market Analysis - Monday 29th October 2018
Hello and hope you all had a fantastic weekend? Getting ready for the new week?
DOW JONES, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 INDICIES
Lots of volatility last week, we had a lot of selling early last week and the selling day on Wednesday causing the rally on Thursday while on Friday we referred to as the end of the bearish move though no guarantees but we have reached our target support at 24500points
signifying the possible end of the move, if we experience more sell off then the target will be 24,000 points which is unlikely because the pre-market market data is up some points this morning.
This week in my opinion is considered as a bullish week or maybe a bullish day and a decline followed by rally back up.
The spinning top candlestick reflects the bottom but the oscillators have not caught up with the possible change to the bullish because the Stochastic is oversold which is the kind of scenario we expected and the market is doing what we expect it to do.
ADX is very high 69.04. No guarantees but pay attention to what you see in the candlesticks and the support and resistance which we discussed previously here.
S&P 500 is doing a similar thing, with a huge spinning top (this indicate a lot of indecision) setting up nice for the end of this move and the same thing is happened with the NASDAQ even though it is a bullish candlestick.
Either Monday or latest Wednesday we will see some bullish moves with extremely volatility.
VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX)
This is pretty high but notice that the current bottom is a lower VIX.
Two weeks ago when we had the first sell off was higher than the current selloff. This a good sign that the volatility is weaning and the fear is disappearing with a possible option process move and surprise you a little.
See soon and happy trading week.
Market Analysis 10.10.2018 - Stocks and Indices It was a very exciting trading week ended on Friday 04th October 2018, it just goes to show that what goes up must definitely come down.
Based on the last 2 trading sessions, the question we should be asking now is how far down will the markets be going? What does this new week bring? Some weeks it is difficult to technically forecast the market movement and I guess this is one of such week. There are lots of signals we can get into more like a month of bearishness but this does not look like a major reversal upheaval.
The nature of the market is up and down. To help you understand the market and give you confidence that in years to come the stock market will go up and down. Last week saw a size able sell off but it was not unexpected because it happens in the stock market every so often. Up and Down is the nature of the game, it is just like the natural cycle of the seasons, we just need to get ready and ride the season through.
Do not get caught up in the fake news, hyperbole and prevalent news occurrences be confident that up and down is the nature of the market. I am not worried about the future even though you were not set up for bearish market last week such things happen.
We will be taking a balanced look at this market trend. Don’t be worried about the future of stock trade. Just to let you know, I don’t trade the fundamentals or the news, I am a technical trader by looking at the big picture. Since May the market as gone up and at some point we need to come back down.
Since May 2018, the Moving Averages crossed and rallied with a little sell off on the DOW, this continued to move up and down and it happened last week. Interestingly same pattern on the S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43% and NASDAQ.
DOW JONES (DOW)
On Wednesday night the chart showed a shooting star and gravestone Doji candlestick occurred and it precedes a selling off (quite a reliable candlestick pattern) with such candlestick pattern you tighten your stops. We saw the warning and it happened because Thursday market we had a bearish day it gives a 3-day evening star reversal candlestick pattern which happened meaning a continuation of the bearing market and may probably lead to the DOW selling off to 26000 points.
On Thursday we sold off to the 10 period moving average and on Friday we had a long lower shadow which means buying pressure. On a 5-minute chart pattern to see the intra-day view, we notice the technical opening showed we traded down and close to the end of the day we traded back up. At the end of the day we had buying pressure despite the bearish market.
What Do We Expect?
The trending behavior setup is either bullish or bearish . Monday 8th October 2018 market is a coin toss because the trading set up is positioned for either a sell off or buy on.
We knew the bearish trend was coming in because it was all overbought and the candlestick splitting. In the event the bearishness continue we need to look for extreme ranges of maybe 25500 but 26000. However, a lot of buying pressure like we saw during the summer hopefully the correction will be done by Wednesday and we will be on the way to our bullish trend .
Sadly, Oscillator are heading down may enter the oversold region. None of the oscillator is supporting buy. RSI is back to 50% and with a full blow move to oversold we may end up to the 26,000 points index.
The Moving Averages are not compromised, the trend looks strong in the bullish picture. The Ebbs and Flows are natural.
S&P 500 -3.66% -3.43%
This is pulled back to a good support at 2885 and buying pressure coming in last week. There were lots of selling pressure for 6 days preceding the sell off last week to the 50 period moving average along with a buying pressure end of last week. There is an equilibrium leading to an unconvinced market. What gives me optimistic is we are on a support and if it doesn’t hold then aim for 2800.
Similar assessment on the S&P -3.66% -3.43% as the DOW. The sell off was fast, scary but not to be too concerned.
Oscillators pulling back and a bearish divergence on stochastic and a weak divergence on the MACH-D. with stochastic there seems to be a hold point at the 50 mark and may not go below to the oversold range. See the trend line and the horizontal line in the image above.
Bollinger band is in a squeeze. It is not a fully confirmed bear or bull market .
NASDAQ
This closed below the 50 period MA and it is alarming because it sold off to 7399. The buying pressure on Friday is a good sign to a bullish trend if not the NASDAQ could be a complete reversal.
Oscillators are bearish and the Bollinger band squeeze seems to be breaking bearish possibly down to 7250 and a bullish market continues. The Bollinger band squeeze breaks downwards happens with force but reverses also quickly from my experience. ADX is moving up which is sign of a bearish strength and the parabolic is bearish .
The NASDAQ is definitely the outlier.
Conclusion
I believe the big picture trend is still intact there is not enough to change our outlook on the market despite the sell off from the last two trading sessions. The market is 50 percent but we do not need to change our outlook on the market.
This seems to be the overall outlook on the market.