Growing Divergences in Small vs Large CapsWhat do the labor market and the stock market have in common? They are both showing a huge divergence between the fortune’s big companies and smaller companies.
From 2009 to 2021, the large caps in the S&P 500 and the small caps in the Russell 2000 moved more-or-less in lock step. Since the end of 2021, however, investors in the S&P 500 have earned a 9% return. Meanwhile, investors in the Russell 2000 small caps are down nearly 20% from the index’s peak.
U.S. Labor Market Survey Data
We are seeing a similar divergence in U.S. labor market data as well with a huge gap developing between two different surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The establishment survey, which is a survey mainly of big businesses, shows over half a million jobs were created over the course of December and January. By contrast, the household survey – which polls 60,000 American families each month and does a better job of capturing job creation among small and mid-sized firms – shows 1.2 million jobs have been lost in December and January, and nearly 700,000 people have left the labor force altogether.
The Impact of Interest Rates
Why would small businesses suffer while large companies prosper? One reason might be interest rates. Many large companies have significant cash reserves which are now earning 5% returns as a result of Fed rate hikes. Also, many large companies financed themselves by issuing bonds when yields were low during the pandemic. By contrast, many smaller businesses do not have large piles of cash earning interest in T-Bills. They typically borrow from banks and suffer the effects of higher rates more quickly than their larger counterparts.
The good news for small firms is that if and when the Fed begins to cut rates, their stocks might outperform the big guys in the S&P.
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By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
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**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
