LYFT - Buy the Dip, Ride the LiftAccording to the Internet, Lyft is down some 30% post-market following an earnings call that says the company slightly beat revenue and active rider targets, but reduced guidance for Q1 '23 by roughly 10%.
Q1 spending and travel being down under the conditions of a) post-Christmas and b) in an economy where credit card debt and credit card rates are climbing high count as a surprise to absolutely nobody.
This kind of situation immediately piques my interest. It piques it because the move smells of big money manipulation, the #1 sign that something is about to reverse and a big move is pending.
But the news only caught my interest because a Twitter friend had DM'd me about a trendline astrology breakout on Lyft last month, otherwise I had never looked at it, and so I have had it in the back of my head all this time that a pullback to the trendline would actually be worth looking at buying.
Now that I've actually looked at Lyft, I like what I see.
There's a smaller precedential fractal on Silver futures that illustrates the kind of play I've been looking to see manifest.
Trendline breakout --> retest --> more up is a very common pattern that MMs like to play.
China Watch
The markets are shaky right now, as is the rest of the world. The reason is, the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic situation in mainland China is countless times worse than the media and Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are telling the world. The regime still claims that under 100,000 people have died from COVID over the last three years.
Just go take a look at how many people have died from COVID in countries with 5-30% less population, countries that aren't the origin of the pandemic, and ask yourself if there's even a 0.001% chance that the CCP isn't just lying and covering up the situation because the Party is _highly_ unstable right now.
If you still don't believe it, then remember the Party covered up the 2003 SARS epidemic too. A lot of people died, but the communist regime has always claimed only a few thousand died.
It's almost like an evil communist dictatorship has to lie a lot to keep its political power in tact, or something.
It's almost like evil communism doesn't lift anyone out of poverty and isn't saving any lives, or something.
What a revelation.
Regardless, the CCP will fall in our lifetimes, much like the USSR fell on Boxing Day '91. When the Party goes, a lot of things are going to go with it, because China is a much bigger deal than Russia. This is humanity's oldest country, self described as the ("Middle Kingdom"), and the only country to have roots to a 5,000 year old traditional, divine culture.
It's also the only country where its government has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of live organ harvesting during the persecution of Falun Gong and Uyghur Muslims, and is composed of the most wicked and shameless rogues, and is the most heinous mafia, in all of human history.
When the Party falls, a lot of governments are going to try to take China. And on top of that, what comes out of China as, and after, the Party falls, will implicate many of the same governments and the corporations they formed these "public-private partnerships" with.
A lot of individuals will also be implicated. The Sam Bankman-Fried scandal will seem rather insignificant (although you'll also see what was really behind that).
All of this combines to mean that any bull market can be sharply and immediately truncated by both geopolitical and natural disaster risks. You have to bear this in mind and take profits on the way up if you're lucky enough to get a winning position!
The trade
On the monthly bars, LYFT isn't really amazing at first glance. I, mean, it could go to $0 right? Everyone knows everything is going to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE and because RECESSION and because ECONOMY.
This is the problem with the bear narrative right now. Instead, you should be looking for bull impulses inside of the prevailingly bearish fundamentals.
But then I looked at the weekly and I saw what needed to be seen.
Namely, the last 6-8 months of trading have been a play on the '20 low of $14.56.
More over, this earnings dump was arranged with a failure to break the $18.58 September '22 high, which has created a double top
To me, this, combined with the fact that tech should really be the next thing to pump in anticipation of a July --> December genuine bearpocalypse, leads me to believe Lyft actually bottomed in December.
All and all, the play is simple:
1. Buy under $12
1. a) Don't get scared
2. Don't want to see a new low set
3. Targets are the $18.58 double top, May '22 $22.82 gap candle, and the $30 gap fill.
What's not to like on the risk/reward in this trade for a company that isn't about to head towards bankruptcy?
Moreover, it's not like we're about to see another round of pandemic lockdowns in the next three months, so travel demand ought be hot going into the summer.
Moreover, I joked in my Intel short-long-short call from last week that the most profitable trade in the US equity markets has to be buying the dip after an earnings dump and waiting for the gap fill/gamma squeeze to play out lol.
Intel Corporation - Buy the Raid, Ride the Wave
Good luck, stay safe, and choose a future for yourselves by opposing the CCP and all of its Marxist-Leninist garbage.
INDU
Monthly $DJI is a must seeGood morning lovely ppl
Maintaining trailer $SDOW #DowJones short position
May add more if we pop enough
Initiated $VIX long position
There's various ways; options $VIXY $UVXY & more
3 warnings signs, see previous posts
Ignore RSI if it shows on post
Let's see how Nov ends $DJI $DIA #stocks
DOW - YM Ketchup28.2K and 24K await... it's simply a matter of time.
Industrials for the Post Industrial Co-Dependent Economy
are being Sold as if there is no tomorrow...
Nothing like a solid lift to re-enter the Trend, which is Down.
Counter-Trends are nasty Bed Fellows.
3M, Dow, and a great many of the glory days Equities are
being dumped on the heads of Ma n' Pa.
Dividend-paying Junk Co frankly makes sense for them... for now.
CD Rates did not decline in the most recent TNX Pullback.
Banks are now more hated than ever.
Brokers are in the lead, though as Passives are frankly the new Index
Funds of the early 2000s - CLick this and that, whammy, Ron Burgundy
would be proud.
Stay Classy INDU.
Stay Classy.
YM - 2 Hour DOW INDU Not a good Look Longer term.
28.200 is the Gap Fill. 24K as well.
With Financial and Industrial imploding,
the RT will be Weak at best.
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Copper and SIlver will consolidate prior to
giving the YM the kick down the stairs, the
correlations there are solid.
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Short terms, stick save followed by more dumping
ahead.
DX needs to break 107s to put the nail in the
DOW Coffin.
It's been collecting Coffin nails for some time,
YM - Daily / Weakened Structure - LT Channel BreakA great deal of technical damage was done here.
It is remarkable how poorly the "Rotation Trade"
CNBC has been touting for 4 weeks failed.
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"Obliteration Trade" perhaps.
Dow Theory Sell Signal works to perfection.
YM - Daily / StructureThe Bog Dawg finally begins to correlate, it did however lead
along with the RUT.
The DOw has yet to break its Support.
It will in time, I'm closely watching the INDU / DOW
for signs of 2/5 beginning.
It closely follows the Value Line Index I commented on
last week.
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Using the POS the Objective has been met.
It can continue in low to low extensions, the probability is low.
YM - Daily / Cake Rotation Meets BacopnSo much for Hiding from the Mouse Jerome, he keeps hiding the Cheese.
Dip Buyers tried rotation 3 times... and failed.
Ouch.
Now down 1500 from the Highs just a few short weeks ago, all was good
until - it wasn't.
Is not good.
No relief, no Countertrend, no rotation, no safety, no nothing but a big
double oot to the cranium.
33,000 - 31.000 should complete when 4 Primary completes it's 5/5.
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Everything Paper is being beaten with the ugly stick.
YM - 15 Minute / Below Trending Could and the failed Rotation to Value in early 2022.
This has been an interesting week for the follow on Trade into what was
considered safety - Value.
It has not quite worked out as the YM plunged nearly 1000 Points from the
proper Weekly highs.
It sits in a tenuous position in need of conviction that simply isn't taking shape
with further follow on Bids.
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It is meandering ahead of Money Center EPS foR JOM BOA WELLS CITI etal.
JPM Is Friday and tends to act as a Pivot for the DOW.
YM - Daily / The 3 TLsThe DOW caught an early New Year's Bid into traditional Value.
Rotation Failed in 48 Hours giving up nearly 800 off the Highs.
Suggesting, "safety" isn't perhaps here.
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The lower Trend Line from the prior Lows is above the Monthly
Gap Fill @ 28,200.
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The INDU/DOW/YM is an interesting Mix of Components, which are
well balanced among Technology, BioTech, Pharma, Financials, AeroSpace,
Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Defense, Heavy Equipment,
Materials, Energy, Leisure, Foods, Employment.
The DOW will always catch the initial Saftey Bid, the Issue is far larger
than Pricing Power - but one of retention and a contraction in overall
Global Economic contraction(s).
American Express
Amgen
Apple
Boeing
Caterpillar
Cisco Systems
Chevron
Goldman Sachs
Home Depot
Honeywell
International Business Machines
Intel
Johnson & Johnson
Coca-Cola
JPMorgan Chase
McDonald’s
MMM
Merck
Microsoft
Nike
Procter & Gamble
Travelers Companies Inc
UnitedHealth Group
Salesforce.Com
Verizon Communications Inc
Visa Inc
Walgreens
Walmart Inc
Walt Disney
Dow
YM - Trendline Triple TapLooking overdone presently - with inflows and another attempt to throw over
failing, we're beginning to see signs of a Reversal setting up.
Ideally, they wanted 37100.
Missed more than a few.
Every time it has tagged the UTL it has failed.
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The Structure is very weak,
YM - Weekly / Rotation Trade Failure @ PresentThe INDU/DOW/YM illusion remained strong until it did not.
After the FED Squeeze to complete the Gap FIlls on all Indexes,
everything reversed, Growth being the leader.
Charts are Hiding the Monthy Break Away due to Continuous
Contract in the Futures. See CASH DOW.
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Not everyone can afford a Mortgage, Cyrptop, and Pokemon
resurgence or contemporary Art Collecting.
As we lean into EPS for Q4, Alcoa kicks off EPS for the DOW
as the Pivot Company January 19th, 2022.
Primary Banks and Financials will lead into the Industrials
reporting EPS.
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The Range is interesting as it is quite large with 8000 total Ticks
to the Lowest Monthly Gap Fill.
33K is a Gap Fill, 31K remains the Lower Boundary for Now.
We may not fill the 28.2K Monthly Gap until later this year, it
will depend upon Confidence and unseen/unknown Events.
I've mentioned Political turmoil will begin to accelerate into
Mid-2022 with those left behind becoming decidedly uncomfortable
with their arrangements with regard to Direct Stimulus.
Gates will not be looking for Share Croppers.
How Capital re-arranges itself will be heavily dependent on Bond
Volatility - which was building unit the FED began to crush it with
further YCC.
A great many variables in front of us.
YM - 600+ RT TodayOverdue for a Prop after placing a nice DB on the Lower Trendline.
The order of the Day, the Straggler - NQ whose Price action is a bit
much to stomach at this point.
BANK is driving the ES YM RTY Higher as it is now up 3.76% - and
has a higher Gap to Fill well above 5K.
Sectors rotation to some Value Trades, but remains in Distribution
Mode into the Next level of Fills.
It should continue to Grind Higher for now.
The ES Remains 100 Handles below the Key 4678.25, doubt it can recover
that level, but they will attempt it, it's just FED Chits after all.
Technically the Damage done remains - Equity Markets will retrace, only
to be sold once again.
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Underlying Breadth remains terrible and Indicies are being propped via
the Usual Heavy Weights.
Oil helped provide a boost to confidence overall as it reached the PO and reversed $5.
Never hurts to have the Black Gold along for the rise.
Bottom Callers are beginning to pick up the pieces for a Year-End Rally.
December Volumes Die off after the 17th and with the Pelican out December 14/15
with more bad news - Operators will attempt to make this "Just another 5% decline,
a Dip to Buy"
DOW - Leads the PlungeLong overdue for NQ RTY ES to play catch up.
They finally did, the clock was ticking.
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Position - INO / CASH
Selling the NYSE open was the Setup as Indicated.
Patience and diving in worked quite well - our
day was complete prior to 11 AM EST.
We closed ALL Sells/Buys in NQ ES RTY YM UVXY VIX
VXX and a Few Equities - AMZN TSLA AMC GOOG
AAPL MSFT TQQQ
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Energy will have a strong recovery as will BioTechs
with all the new Covid Variants popping up like Daisies.
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All Globex Sells were Closed prior to NYSE Open. The
lower lows were not surprising as Ranges expanded with the
NQ is now 897 to 786 as the Lower Range.
414/418 NQ Entries were pressed by Sellers and then the
Chase after the NYSE open where pressing.500%418s
was the order of the AM Session.
ES 4505 remains the Pivot for Lower.
YM folded up as Indicated, it is the Leader.
RTY - Small Caps have very little to gain and have been
left for Dead as a parking lot.
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Extended Valuations / PEs / PSs / MArgin / DEBT / Delta
all contributed to the long overdue SELL.
There was frankly no recovering from the NYSE Plunge -
although it was on and the Big 7 were sold in large Size.
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The NQ has some catching up to do on a percentage Basis...
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Not quite the Black Friday everyone was jazzed about.
A great many were looking up and with good cause, the
Operators kept in play as long as possible but ultimately
showed their hands.
VX is going to continue to Pick Up.
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Hopefully, we are underway to Visit the 200SMAs - it is very Overdue.
Was pleased to see UVXY show its hand as well, Up nicely by 33%.
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Hopefully, everyone here had a very prosperous trading day.
Charts will be updated this Weekend.
Have a great weekend everyone.
YM - Leaders LeadCrude Oil and the DOW have been the ever-present reminders.
Wild Swings for Fills worked for Both.
Crude Oil made a 7 Tick Front Run of the 50%, YM Traded it
to perfection reaching the Upper Trend Line.
We will need to see how the NYSE open Response - Panic
Sell into a Waterfall decline or a Retracement into the Next Fill
for Lower.
c
The YM's Range is now down to 33,021 and then 31,112.
Quite Large.
No need to chase, the 50'% or .382s remain the Fills.
Friday, Black Friday to a Retracement into the next Sell
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We remain SOH until NYSE open closed all Globex Sells and will be 100% CASH
for Today until our overhead FIlls are tagged, the probability is they will not be met
and we are just fine with this as Globex was a very Profitable GIFT.
Freaky Friday is underway.
YM - 1 Hour / Throw-Over of Momentum CloudAfter 3/3 Completed Friday, the Retracement was to be Anticipated.
What comes next will be Instructive as the AM Session was used
to shove the ES/NQ into the stratosphere.
This is WHEN we SELL and we did, 3X.
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Cajones are required - IF you are re-arranging your Deck Chairs...
Huge Mistake.
I'll repeat our Manta - Patience.
Most traders blink at highs and move over to the Shuffle Board Court.
Why did you enter, to begin with, IF you are giving up?
Out over your Skis again?
Ladder in using Inverse strategies.
Same Strata, Different Day.
NO ONE is going to TIME this Perfectly...
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We closed out NQ x 16/64 from ~ 17632 after 16 Keepers 16610 were
Pressed hard. 48/48 remains with a Stop at .618.
Gaps to Fill... lots of them Below - 7 at present, they will Fill, the issue
is how you Position for it.
Short Dated options are just Silly. Gamma Squeeze after Gamma Squeeze...
We Pay for Time, as the Operators do.
Always.
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PATIENCE - Ask your Local "Dirty Monkey" - They'll agree.
UVXY is fast becoming a solid Position for those who are looking for the
entries.
VX Complex is being Bid, period, fill stop.
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The EU Sell was an easy trade today, hopefully you didn't miss it.
YM - Daily / Weakening StructureLower Price Objective Front Run on Friday's Close.
Pinned to Expiry.
Lower 35100 Price Objective in Trade.
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DOW leading is never a good sign.
It is now in a 13/13 Count with a great many Gaps
below all the way down to 28.212.
34,200
33,700
33,100
31,013
The Larger Weekly TF POs.
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Traders find this difficult to Fathom.
It will depend on ob the Larger Count Structure we indicated
a few weeks back with respect to 4/4 complete or 3/3 Completing.
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YM - Perfect Sign of Exhaustion and Weakness.Pointed out the Indies will follow YM and Crude.
The DOW is unable to hold 36100 and continues
to make Lower Lows in Momentum and Trend
on the Cloud.
It's there in Living Colour.
Growth vs Value...
The FEDs own FSR suggests NEITHER.
85 Pages worth reading.
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Accident ahead.
YM - 1 Hour 8/8Day 8 of the Trading Range and the YM continues
to weaken.
Unable to break above the Speed Settings for both
the Momentum and Trending Clouds.
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Equity Holders have used Cash Out ReFi's to purchase
more Stocks, while Corporate America is on a Share
Buyback Frenzy with $1.021 Trillion CASH Holdings.
Overall Debt to Equity Leverage is the Highest Levels
across All Streams.
Margin Leverage ATHs.
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Extreme Financial Distortions are ever-present and growing.