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YM - 1000 Ticks of RangeThe Dow Futures have been an easy SELL at the top of the Range. BUY Side anticipates another BUY at the bottom of the Range. The YM Closed September @ 14,682 and with the High for October at the level of 15001.25 it is well off the prior Months Close, as well, and more importantly - well off the October Highs. The Intra-Day Price swings have been Volatile, with what was hoped to be a solid rotation and lift to 36700 to 37200 as the Economy reopening trade took hold. Delta tossed a large wrench into those Aspirations... Recently, we have seen wild stops runs during Globex, only to be slammed into @ the witching hours during RTH. The lower Price Objectives for the YM begin several thousand points below @ 31K and extend down to Fill the Monthly Gap @ 28.2K. The Equity Complex continues to weaken, Day after Day, regardless of short term gyrations which entice those content on reliving the past. 4/5 has a long way to go... more for TECH and the S&P500, as they will be hit the hardest. Today Price action in the YM has been in excess of a 350 Point Range with a Dip into the 33Ks. The Trend is clear for now, lower and lower, cautiously avoiding a reset of the lows... We do not believe they will hold, but induce more selling to the 200EMA @ 33266, a third test of the Lows we would not trust.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
7
YM - Macro CommentaryEvergrande's exposure is $300Billion, US Institutions admit to $20Billion in Direct exposure. Total exposure is being hidden in Passive Funds. Does not matter, there are far larger issues. China will bail out Domestics... Sovereigns... not so much. Next. Distractions are always the Hero's welcome. ______________________________________________________________________________ On to the Important items which require attention. The Federal Reserve released a passive Statement published yesterday in a Summary Post below. What bares attention: 2024 became 2023, which turned into late 2022 and presently it appears one of two events is well underway. 1. November FED Meeting will announce Taper, which is well underway via the US Treasury as well as the FED. The Real ISSUE is - do they begin immediately or announce a later date of implementation - 5 weeks from now, the Bigger Taper will be announced as the FED clearly indicated a far more aggressive taper within 7 Months, concluding in MAY/JUNE 2022. This, as opposed to the usual 12/13 Month schedule of prior Tapering. 2. Once, the Tapering is done, Interest Rates will begin to be lifted. The topping process for the Indicies will manage to Blow off into Final 5/5 HIghs. For the ES by example - 5000. Within the next 4 to 5 weeks we should see an aggressive SELL take the Equities Complex into the Lows. These Objectives remain between the 200-400SMAs. For the ES - 3872.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
3
YM - 31K remains ObjectiveThe larger issue will be whether or Not they trap SELLERs looking for the Monthly Gap Fill @ 28.2K. The DOW has been weak on a realtive Basis given the 34053 has Broken, this was important Support @ Monthly. Support lies at the 34139 level on the Weekly closing basis. This will imbue SELLERs as technical support is @ 33120 followed by 31848. The channel would have to give way to imply a Flash Crash continues, it has been weak support for now. Real LT Support is at the 28,200 to 31,000 levels, a wider range should the Gap Fill on the Monthly basis be in Trade. It remains, far too early to provide a solid indication and trapping Gap Fill traders would be ideal for a sharp reversal. Again, far too early to indicate, but trade plans have worked well, we do not want to overstay our welcome as these Objectives come into Trade. Privately to PB we indicated the Flash Crash would occur this week, it was left out of the Public Domain for obvious reasons, good to see it come together. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by HK_L61
14
YM - Monthly Close > 35035 for August LIS / SEP VX +++The Risk of a 2 month correction after this week completes and treading begins Tuesday. This does not appear to be a major high and a retest of support back to the 31,000 level is possible as long as 37,000 level on the Dow is not exceeded. Wide Range? Indeed - 2,000+ Ticks of range. Yes, it all is within the boundaries of enormous Ranges, trade Micro CT's in INV Ladders as opposed to going all in at a specific level. ALL order flow is bought and sold, everywhere to varying degrees. When it is raining SELLs, the fuel remains for a Squeeze. We are anticipating a SELL this week in ALL Equities, we'll see where they game it too... prior to dipping back into the SELLER Deep End of the Pool. Overall, we are Bias to downside, patiently waiting for signals that will arrive all too quickly. Transport look weak... DX will provide cover early in the week, Yields not so much... Blink and you'll miss it - imho. - HK
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
20
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern. Rotations are short lived. FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH is forced higher on decreasing Volumes. We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move higher. The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020. Precisely the same pattern of Distribution. Every throw over is a SELL imho. Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate. Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline. Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins. Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake. Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November, prior to new ATHs. The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move quickly to new all time highs into 2022. The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last for more than a few months. MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT. FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market, instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products are failing. It is reminiscent of 2004. Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
UShort
by HK_L61
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM_F) Resumes Correction LowerElliott Wave View in Dow Futures (YM_F) suggests the rally from 3.23.2020 low ended wave ((1)) at 24806 as an impulse structure. Up from 3.23.2020 low, wave (1) ended at 22545 and wave (2) dips ended at 20500. Index then extended higher in wave (3) towards 24327 and wave (4) pullback ended at 22814. Finally wave (5) higher ended at 24806. This final move also completed wave ((1)) in higher degree and ended cycle from 3.23.2020 low. The 30 minutes chart below shows where wave ((1)) ended at 24806. Index is currently correcting cycle from 3.23.2020 low within wave ((2)). The decline is unfolding as a zigzag structure where wave (A) ended at 23208, bounce in wave (B) ended at 24471, and wave (C) remains in progress. Internal of wave (A) unfolded as 5 waves where wave 1 ended at 24630, wave 2 ended at 24713, wave 3 ended at 23699, wave 4 ended at 23918, and wave 5 ended at 23208. Bounce in wave (B) took the form of a zigzag where wave A ended at 24057, wave B ended at 23428, and wave C ended at 24471. Down from wave B at 24471, wave 1 ended at 23973 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 24293. Near term, while bounce stays below 24806, expect the Index to extend lower in wave C. Potential target lower is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension of (A)-(B) which comes at 21952 – 23919.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast